As we get set to find out the official bracket for March Madness, one thing is clear. The top eight teams in the country are all capable of winning the National Championship (well, maybe not Virginia). I don't think there's any question what eight teams will end up on the 1- and 2-lines. But who'll get a 1 and who'll get a 2 is still up for debate.
Duke probably locked up the No. 1 overall seed with its ACC title. They've got the best player in college basketball, and three of their five losses came without him. But when Zion plays, like he did in the ACC Tournament, they're the best team out there. Period.
Some people are saying the ACC could become the second conference in history to get three 1-seeds in the same season. I think they only get two, though. Because I don't see how you don't give one to Tennessee. That SEC semi against Kentucky was for a 1-seed in my opinion. And, despite their loss in the WCC final, you can't tell me Gonzaga isn't one of the four best teams. They're the only good team in the West anyway, so they're going out there regardless. So it just makes more sense to make them 1 instead of the 2.
Just like I had Kentucky-Tennessee as a battle for a 1-seed, I thought the same thing about the Duke-North Carolina game. Duke won, so the Tar Heels drop to a 2 (although, I think they're both better than Virginia). Likewise, whichever Michigan team wins the Big Ten will have no bearing on their seeds. They're both a 2 either way. The only thing that might be decided by that Big Ten championship game is what region they're in (somebody has to go out west and play Gonzaga).
Meanwhile, the bubble teams can thank Oregon, Saint Mary's and whoever wins the Atlantic 10 for taking three bids away. Nevada's loss didn't make a difference one way or the other because Utah State ended up winning the Mountain West, and both teams were probably already in.
Which means I don't see a way Belmont gets into the field. I'm not even sure they would've gotten in had those three bids been available. Don't get me wrong, I think Belmont deserves to be in the Tournament. But recent history hasn't been kind to mid-majors, so I don't see where this year would be any different.
Although, the shrinking bubble is a good thing in a way, too. Because it's going to keep three teams that are less deserving than Belmont out. I'm sorry, but a 16-16 Texas team shouldn't even be in the conversation! The number of losses is glaring enough, but they're a .500 team! I don't care who they've beaten (which is why they're even on the board)! If they get in and lose in the first round, they'll finish the season with a losing record. That should only happen if you win your conference tournament and get an auto bid.
So, Texas is out. And, unfortunately, so is Temple. I had the Owls in until Oregon stole their bid. That also bumped Arizona State from an outright 11 seed to Dayton. (No potential bid stealers in action on Sunday, so my at-large field is set.)
This year was really all about three conferences. The ACC, SEC and Big Ten are going to account for seven of the top eight seeds, and all but two of my top 16 overall seeds consist of those three conferences plus the Big 12 (Houston is the other one).
Overall, my conference breakdown looks like this: ACC-8, Big Ten-8, Big 12-7, SEC-7, Big East-4, American-3, Pac-12-3, Atlantic 10-2, Mountain West-2, West Coast-2. My Final Four pairings are East vs. West and South vs. Midwest. As for my whole bracket, here you go...
EAST (Washington)
Columbia: 1-Duke (1) vs. 16-Iona/Northern Kentucky, 8-Iowa vs. 9-Oklahoma
Hartford: 4-Auburn vs. 13-Northeastern, 5-Villanova vs. 12-Murray State
Tulsa: 3-Kansas vs. 14-Montana, 6-Buffalo vs. 11-Oregon
Des Moines: 2-Michigan vs. 15-Bradley, 7-Louisville vs. 10-Central Florida
WEST (Anaheim)
Salt Lake City: 1-Gonzaga (4) vs. 16-Abilene Christian, 8-Mississippi State vs. 9-Utah State
Hartford: 4-Florida State vs. 13-Vermont, 5-Iowa State vs. 12-St. Bonaventure
Jacksonville: 3-LSU vs. 14-Georgia State, 6-Cincinnati vs. 11-St. John's/Ohio State
Des Moines: 2-Michigan State vs. 15-Colgate, 7-Wofford vs. 10-Syracuse
SOUTH (Louisville)
Jacksonville: 1-Tennessee (2) vs. 16-North Dakota State/North Carolina Central, 8-Washington vs. 9-Minnesota
San Jose: 4-Kansas State vs. 13-Old Dominion, 5-Virginia Tech vs. 12-Saint Mary's
Tulsa: 3-Purdue vs. 14-Harvard, 6-Marquette vs. 11-TCU/Arizona State
Columbia: 2-North Carolina vs. 15-Gardner-Webb, 7-Nevada vs. 10-Mississippi
MIDWEST (Kansas City)
Columbus: 1-Virginia (3) vs. 16-Fairleigh Dickinson, 8-Baylor vs. 9-Florida
San Jose: 4-Houston vs. 13-Liberty, 5-Wisconsin vs. 12-New Mexico State
Salt Lake City: 3-Texas Tech vs. 14-UC Irvine, 6-Maryland vs. 11-NC State
Columbus: 2-Kentucky vs. 15-Prairie View, 7-Seton Hall vs. 10-VCU
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