There are two things that I know about the NL East this season: 1. It's going to be crazy competitive. 2. It's going to be crazy fun to watch. I can see any of those top four teams winning the division, and each of them has a legitimate shot at the playoffs (even though one of them definitely won't). The next six months will give us some highly entertaining baseball in the most competitive division in the game.
Atlanta won the division last year and basically stood pat with a young roster. And the Braves aren't even favored to make the playoffs in a loaded division. Because while they're still really good, the Mets, Phillies and Nationals all got significantly better! Yes, even though they lost Bryce Harper (to another team in the division no less), I think Washington a better team than the one that disappointed last year.
What all this means is that the Miami Marlins might be the most important team in this division. Because the Marlins are going to give one of them problems. And whichever team that is could end up being the one watching the others pull away.
Regardless, it's easy to envision each of the other four teams finishing with a winning record. It's also easy to envision first and fourth place being separated by just a few games. I just have a feeling that the four of them are going to be that close all season. In fact, it's almost too close to call. It'd be an absolute shocker if the NL East race doesn't come down to Game 162.
1. Philadelphia Phillies: I can't remember a team being as aggressive in free agency as the Phillies were this offseason (maybe the Yankees in 2008-09?). And it was so much more than their full-court press for Harper. This is a team that faded badly down the stretch last season (due partly to poor managerial decisions), and they addressed all of their weaknesses. Which is why I give them the slight edge in the division. Although, they're just as big of a candidate to be that team who everybody thinks got so much better, but ends up crashing and burning.
The Phillies aren't just expecting to become competitive out of nowhere, though, so they should be able to handle those lofty expectations. After all, Harper may be the most notable, but let's not forget who else they brought in. They signed Andrew McCutchen, traded for J.T. Realmuto, and pulled off a Jean Segura-for-Carlos Santana swap that improved them at two positions because it allows Rhys Hoskins to stop trying to play the outfield and go back to first base where he belongs. And they solidified the back end of the bullpen by signing David Robertson. All of which should make them the favorite in a loaded NL East.
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen-LF, Jean Segura-SS, Bryce Harper-RF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, J.T. Realmuto-C, Odubel Herrera-CF, Maikel Franco-3B, Cesar Hernandez-2B
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Jake Arietta, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 94-68
2. Washington Nationals: This is no longer Bryce Harper's team. Which might be a good thing. Because this team's strength is its pitching. And that pitching got even better with the addition of Patrick Corbin. Throw in Anibal Sanchez as a very serviceable No. 4 starter, and the Nationals probably have the best rotation in the National League. They fortified the bullpen, too, by signing former Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal (who didn't play in 2018) as a set up man for the lights-out Sean Doolittle.
And their offense didn't really take too much of a hit with the loss of Harper. Sure, it would be nice to still have him and Daniel Murphy around, but they were already preparing themselves for life without them last season. They'll look different, sure, but Juan Soto and Victor Robles are stars in the making, and they've still got their old standbys in Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner. They also upgraded at catcher, replacing Matt Wieters with Yan Gomes, and they're hoping they got the Twins' Brian Dozier to play second base instead of the Dodgers' Brian Dozier.
Projected Lineup: Adam Eaton-RF, Brian Dozier-2B, Juan Soto-LF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Anthony Rendon-3B, Trea Turner-SS, Yan Gomes-C, Victor Robles-CF
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Ross
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card)
3. New York Mets: If not for everything the Phillies did in the offseason, the Mets would be the most improved team in the NL East. They saw how much better everyone else was getting, and they did everything they needed to do to keep pace. Starting with that trade with Seattle that brought some star power in Robinson Cano and yielded a closer in Edwin Diaz (and their old closer, Jeurys Familia, came back as a free agent after the A's borrowed him for a few months).
Although, who we kidding? The Mets will only go as far as their starting rotation takes them. Last season, Jacob deGrom won the Cy Young despite going just 10-9 because he got absolutely no run support. They can't rely on deGrom to be a one-man show, though. The rest of the division is too good. When the Mets reached the World Series four years ago, it was because they got outstanding starting pitching from their entire rotation all season. Injuries happen, but they've been incredibly unlucky on that front (especially when it comes to their pitchers) over the past couple seasons. If Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are able to back up deGrom the way they're capable of, though, look out. They will need to score some runs, though. Because it's tough to win when you're scoring two runs a game. Just ask deGrom. But, if they get the type of pitching their fans expect, even bringing that up just a little to like four runs a game will be enough to yield a bunch of wins.
Projected Lineup: Ahmed Rosario-SS, Jed Lowrie-3B, Michael Conforto-LF, Robinson Cano-2B, Todd Frazier-1B, Brandon Nimmo-RF, Wilson Ramos-C, Juan Lagares-CF
Projected Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz, Jason Vargas
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 90-72
4. Atlanta Braves: Loaded with talented young players and coming off a division title, you'd think the expectations were sky-high for the Atlanta Braves in 2019. But, by watching the rest of the NL East get significantly better, the Braves instead find themselves preparing for a dogfight. It's an interesting position to be in. Because there's still every reason to believe this team is capable of repeating (although, I'm not going to say they've got a 90s-era dynasty in the making). Or they could finish fourth. So is the NL East in 2019.
For the Braves to repeat, they'll need Rookie of the Year Ronald Acuna not to have a sophomore slump. They'll also need similar production from Nick Markakis after his career year. You know what you'll get from the ultra-reliable Freddie Freeman, but the Josh Donaldson signing was a big risk. It could be a steal if he puts up the MVP-type numbers from the start of his stint in Toronto. Or, if they got the injury-plagued Donaldson of the last two seasons, that's a lot of dead money in the middle of the lineup. The pitching is really the key, though. Especially in this division. I'm not saying Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb have to be All*Stars. But they're gonna have to hold their own against Scherzer, Nola and deGrom. If they don't, the Braves will really need to pick up the wins at the back end of the rotation. Honestly, I just don't think Atlanta's rotation holds up against the others. Which is why I think they'll be the odd ones out once the NL East dust is settled.
Projected Lineup: Ozzie Albies-2B, Ronald Acuna-LF, Nick Markakis-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Josh Donaldson-3B, Ender Inciarte-CF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Tyler Flowers-C
Projected Rotation: Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Kevin Gausman, Julio Teheran, Kyle Wright
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Projected Record: 85-77
5. Miami Marlins: As we enter Year 2 of Derek Jeter's reimagined Miami Marlins, it becomes even more abundantly clear how far this franchise is behind the other four in the division. The Marlins will at least look better on the field in one respect. They have new uniforms and a new logo, with teal making its return after that black-focused motif of the past several seasons. As for the guys wearing those uniforms, it's going to be a long year. Made even longer by the fact that J.T. Realmuto, the one guy they actually kept heading into last season, was traded to the division-rival Phillies.
So who do the Marlins have that's worth watching? Well, there's Starlin Castro. And I'm going to say center fielder Lewis Brinson is capable of a breakout despite being like a .190 career hitter. They really like Brian Anderson, too. And, just for good measure, they've got well-traveled veterans Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker supplementing the lineup. As for the pitching staff, Jose Urena anchors the rotation. He's not horrible, but when you consider who the other No. 1 starters in this division are, Urena pales in comparison. Their bullpen is surprisingly veteran-laden, with Mr. Opener himself Sergio Romo traveling down the Florida Turnpike to serve as a setup man. The Marlins know they aren't very good and don't have a chance of competing in this division. They'll have a say in who does, though. Which means we'll have to pay attention to them.
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson-LF, Neil Walker-1B, Starlin Castro-2B, Brian Anderson-3B, Peter O'Brien-RF, J.T. Riddle-SS, Jorge Alfaro-C, Lewis Brinson-CF
Projected Rotation: Jose Urena, Dan Straily, Trevor Richards, Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith
Closer: Drew Steckenrider
Projected Record: 64-98
No comments:
Post a Comment