It's International Women's Day, so it only seems appropriate to talk about the NCAA Women's Tournament. I was watching the UConn game the other day, and Rebecca Lobo pointed out that for the first time in a while, the Huskies aren't the prohibitive favorite for the title. In fact, it's so wide open that you could make a case for about five or six teams as legitimate National Championship contenders.
Which is going to make for an interesting tournament. Starting with the unveiling of the bracket. Because who gets what seed and where they're scheduled to play against who will be the source of a lot of discussion. And probably a little bit of controversy. And I can guarantee that somebody's going to be unhappy.
Unlike in the men's tournament, women's teams are allowed to play at home in the first two rounds. So all of these teams (except for South Carolina, which is hosting the men's tournament) will be in their own arenas on the opening weekend. That's not the issue. It's the following weekend when they have to travel for the Regionals that things get interesting. Because someone's gonna have to travel...and be at a huge disadvantage as a result.
Twice in the past few weeks, the NCAA has unveiled its top 16 seeds at that moment in time. They're obviously subject to change right up until Selection Monday, but those top 16 announcements have been telling for a couple reasons. First, they've given us an idea of what the committee is thinking. But they've also given us a hint of the complicated mess that is creating the bracket.
Because it's not as simple as going by the S-curve. If it was, you'd have 1, 8, 9 and 16 in the same region, with the separating conference teams serving as the only real adjustment to that. For the most part, that's what they do on the men's side. But with the women, they worry about where as well, which adds another, unnecessary wrinkle.
With the men, they don't care. They'll fly anybody anywhere. Not so with the women. The NCAA tries to keep teams as close as possible so that they can take a bus instead of a plane. And that dictates where they get placed. It shouldn't. But it does.
That means we know two things right off the bat. UConn is getting sent to Albany and Oregon is getting sent to Portland. UConn is currently on the 1-line and will probably be the No. 3 overall seed behind Baylor and whoever wins the ACC. When they were a 2 (like they were in the first top 16 reveal), that meant you were gonna have a 1-seed at a huge disadvantage playing a virtual road game against UConn in Albany. Just like the No. 1 seed in Portland will have to deal with.
Now, I'm not saying Oregon shouldn't be in Portland. Along with Stanford, they're one of two West Coast teams among the top eight and it makes no sense for them to fly cross-country while placing other non-Oregon teams in Portland. They do the same thing in the men's tournament, too (Duke and North Carolina will both be in Columbia on the opening weekend). That's not really the heart of the issue. It's how they determined the 1-seed who'll play the Ducks that is.
Chicago and Greensboro are the other two Regional sites. Louisville and Notre Dame are the other two projected 1-seeds. Albany's obviously out of play, which means either Baylor, Louisville or Notre Dame has to go out West to face Oregon. Louisville is within 500 miles (the bus threshold) of both Chicago and Greensboro, so they could theoretically travel in either direction, while Notre Dame is only about 90 minutes from Chicago. Baylor has to fly regardless.
So it should be easy, right? Notre Dame goes to Chicago, Louisville goes to Greensboro and Baylor flies to Portland. Except Baylor's the overall No. 1 and Oregon's the overall No. 5, so they understandably don't want them to be disadvantaged by that long trip and, for all intents and purposes, road game. And since either Notre Dame or Louisville can bus to Chicago, it makes the most sense to put them in Greesboro. Which means whoever doesn't win the ACC has to go to Portland.
Right now that team is Notre Dame, the defending National Champions. They also have South Carolina, the 2017 National Champions, heading to Portland as the No. 3 seed. Mississippi State lost both of those championship games and is currently projected as a 2-seed. They were a 1 in the first projection...and ticketed to face UConn in Albany! Those seeds have reversed, but the matchup is the same. Meanwhile, NC State is a 3-seed but would only have to travel 80 miles to Greensboro (where the ACC Tournament is being played!).
Bottom line is teams are gonna have to travel. That's the nature of the tournament. So, balance should be more important than geography. Should geography be a secondary factor? Sure. But you shouldn't have a 3-seed essentially playing at home. Especially when your reason for doing that is because you gave them the site priority as the top 3-seed.
In their first bracket update, it was a mess. They clearly thought about geography first, and the result was a bracket that was incredibly unbalanced. Some regions were definitely stronger than others. This one came close to following the S-curve, with flipping Syracuse and Iowa State to keep Syracuse away from Louisville as the only exception (although they had no problem putting Syracuse with Notre Dame).
They've gotten a lot better at it. I'll give them that. UConn and Rutgers met in a Regional Final when they were both in the Big East, and the year Texas A&M won the National Championship, they played Baylor for a FOURTH! time that season in the Regional Final. They at least try to separate conference teams now. But they need to take the next step. Place the 1-seeds (and 2-seeds if you can) in the closest regions. After that, worry about balance. Not geography.
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