Seattle and Oakland are all done in Tokyo. Now we have to wait a week for the official Opening Day. But that also means I only have a week to finish my 2019 MLB preview. Which means I've got to get going. Today we continue it with the AL Central.
I don't think it's a stretch to say the AL Central is the worst division in baseball. The AL West gives it a run for its money at the bottom, but the top of the AL West is better, so they get the slight edge. In the AL Central, meanwhile, it's the Indians, the Twins and three rebuilding teams. This division is so bad that Cleveland can win it with only 85-88 wins. In fact, this might be the worst Indians team in quite a while, and they can still already start planning their postseason rotation.
Minnesota lost the Wild Card Game in 2017, then struggled last year. The Twins are capable of a bounce back, though, and they might be the only team capable of challenging the Indians for the division title. The White Sox tried to land one of the two big free agents, but they didn't get either one. They're still better than both the Tigers and Royals, though.
Cleveland will almost certainly be the division winner with the fewest wins this season. Although, maybe not. Because the Indians are the best team in this division hands down, so they can load up against their AL Central rivals. And, frankly, once the playoffs start, it won't actually matter how many regular season victories they had.
1. Cleveland Indians: So why are the Indians that much better than the rest of the division. One word: Pitching. They dangled both Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer during the offseason, but got no takers (I'm not sure they were actually serious about trading either one anyway). Throw in Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger and, if healthy, this is one of the best rotations in baseball. Their bullpen won't be as strong with both Andrew Miller and Cody Allen moving on, but with Brad Hand closing, they're still in good shape.
Offensively, they've lost some pieces. But they still have Fracisco Lindor, who's one of the best overall players in baseball. And he makes for ridiculously dynamic 1-2 punch with Jose Ramirez (who I think everyone else has figured out how good he is). And, after a year in Philly, Carlos Santana is back to DH. Even though they had Edwin Encarnacion in the DH spot, Santana's switch-hitting power was noticeably absent last season. I think being back in Cleveland will be good for him. With those three in the middle of a solid, if not spectacular, lineup, to go along with their excellent pitching, it would be a surprise if the Indians don't win the division by at least 10 games.
Projected Lineup: Francisco Lindor-SS, Jason Kipnis-2B, Jose Ramirez-3B, Carlos Santana-DH, Jake Bauers-1B, Jordan Luplow-LF, Tyler Naquin-RF, Roberto Perez-C, Leonys Martin-CF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber
Closer: Brad Hand
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Minnesota Twins: What went right in Minnesota last season? Not a whole heck of a lot. Things were so bad that Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton both ended the season in the Minors. If they get back to the level they're capable of, the Twins are in decent shape to give the Indians a challenge. I really like their additions, too. Joe Mauer retired, but they replaced him with C.J. Cron, who's more of a traditional first baseman. And there are the free agent additions of Jonathan Schoop and Nelson Cruz, which make the lineup even longer.
For the first time since Johan Santana left, the Twins have a legitimate ace in Jose Berrios. The rest of the rotation is a little questionable, however. It's basically a bunch of No. 3 and 4 starters. Although, in the AL Central, it's beyond serviceable. I'm not sure they'd be able to withstand an extended absence by one of their starting pitchers, either. The bullpen is the shakiest part of this team, and, as of now, they haven't officially designated a closer. First-year manager Rocco Baldelli has a bit of a challenge in front of him. But it's definitely doable. Minnesota being in contention for the second wild card (or even the division title) wouldn't totally shock me.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Miguel Sano-3B, Max Kepler-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Jason Castro-C, Jorge Polanco-SS
Projected Rotation: Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez
Closer: Addison Reed
Projected Record: 81-81
3. Chicago White Sox: The White Sox are less bad than the Tigers and Royals, which is why I have them finishing third. And there actually is a good amount of talent on the South Side. Just not enough to challenge Cleveland for division supremacy. Chicago's biggest addition was DH Yonder Alonso. He's Manny Machado's brother-in-law, and he was the hook in their ultimately unsuccessful attempt to land Manny. Machado obviously would've made this team significantly better, but they should be able to survive without him OK. The lineup isn't great, but it's not the worst, either.
It's on the mound where I have questions about the White Sox. Carlos Rodon is a solid Major League starter, but is he really a No. 1? Ivan Nova joins the rotation after two years in Pittsburgh to give them a veteran presence, and he's actually the only new arm they've got. So, they do have some stability in the rotation, which could definitely prove to be a benefit in the long run. And they've loaded up the bullpen. Free agent acquisitions Kelvin Herrera and Alex Colome have both been closers before, and they're both capable of filling the role. Herrera was also a set up guy in that ridiculous Royals bullpen a few years ago, so it makes sense to start the season having him pitch the eighth. And don't forget about incumbent setup man Nate Jones, either. With those three at the back end, the White Sox have a surprisingly good bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Adam Engel-CF, Yoan Moncada-3B, Jose Abreu-1B, Yonder Alonso-DH, Yolmer Sanchez-2B, Daniel Palka-LF, Welington Castillo-C, Jon Jay-RF, Tim Anderson-SS
Projected Rotation: Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez, Ivan Nova, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Covey
Closer: Alex Colome
Projected Record: 70-92
4. Detroit Tigers: Well, they don't have to pay Victor Martinez anymore. Not only are they free of that contract, it frees up the DH spot for Miguel Cabrera and his massive contract that they're stuck with. Is he going to be the Triple Crown-winning, two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera? No. But they need more than three homers and 22 RBIs for the money they're spending. Maybe moving him from first base to DH will help him stay healthy. Because his bat makes such a difference in this lineup. If he's not in the lineup, they'll have trouble scoring runs. Because I'm not sure who the RBI guy is in that case (Nicholas Castellanos?).
On the mound, meanwhile, they took a big hit when they found out Michael Fulmer has to have Tommy John surgery and is likely out until the 2020 All*Star break at the earliest. Without Fulmer, this rotation doesn't intimidate anybody at all. Jordan Zimmermann enters year four of his five-year contract (another one I bet the Tigers wish they could get off the books) as the nominal No. 1, and former Padre Tyson Ross joins the rotation this year. I'd trust those two veterans to eat up some innings, but that's about it. For some reason, Shane Greene is still the closer even though Joe Jimenez is younger and better. I'd bet that switch happens sometime around mid-June.
Projected Lineup: Jordy Mercer-SS, Josh Harrison-2B, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Nicholas Castellanos-RF, Niko Goodrum-1B, Jeimer Candelario-3B, Christin Stewart-LF, Grayson Greiner-C, JaCoby Jones-CF
Projected Rotation: Jordan Zimmermann, Matthew Boyd, Matt Moore, Tyson Ross, Daniel Norris
Closer: Shane Greene
Projected Record: 67-95
5. Kansas City Royals: Remember when the Royals went to the World Series in back-to-back years and won a title? It was only four years ago, yet it seems so long. Because it's been a mighty fall for Kansas City. It really started last year when Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas all left. And now they're without franchise stalwart Salvador Perez, who's out for the year after Tommy John surgery. Yes, Alex Gordon is still there and Whit Merrifield is a superstar in the making. And I think the change of scenery is going to be really good for Billy Hamilton, who isn't as good a center fielder as Cain, but is still good out there and gives them a speed element that was sorely lacking last year.
Number 1 starter Danny Duffy had a rough season last year. His ERA was up around 5.00 and he gave up 23 home runs. But he is still the best starting pitcher the Royals have. How bad is the Royals rotation? Homer Bailey, who went 1-14 for the Reds last season, is projected as their No. 5 starter. And his competition for that spot doesn't really blow you away (although they also have Ian Kennedy and are putting him in the bullpen for some reason). Brad Boxberger closed in Arizona last year, but will set up Wily Peralta in Kansas City this season. Either way, there probably won't be too many save situations for either one of them,
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Whit Merrifield-2B, Alex Gordon-LF, Ryan O'Hearn-1B, Jorge Soler-RF, Adalberto Mondesi-SS, Martin Maldonado-C, Hunter Dozier-DH, Chris Owings-3B
Projected Rotation: Danny Duffy, Brad Keller, Jakob Junis, Jorge Lopez, Homer Bailey
Closer: Wily Peralta
Projected Rotation: 65-97
No comments:
Post a Comment