Opening Day is finally here! After five long months of waiting, it's baseball season at last. And for the final part of my baseball preview, we'll take a look at the division I know best--the AL East.
As usual, the AL East is the most competitive of the six divisions on paper. The Red Sox are the defending champs, so they're probably looked at as the favorites, and Tampa Bay was also in the playoffs last season. And you've got to think the Yankees are going to be the Yankees again, just by the sheer fact that everyone can't be injured for the entire season two years in a row. Right? That's why I think it's ridiculous that some of the magazines are saying they're only going to win 82-83 games this year. They might finish third, but there's no possible way they'll be worse than they were last season. To think so is just silly.
I'm not forgetting about the Orioles and Blue Jays. Baltimore's probably not going to make the playoffs. They're simply not as good as the top three teams. But they're going to have a say in who wins the AL East. Because they're going to end up with a winning record over one of them, and that might be the one that finishes third. And let's not forget that Toronto was the chic pick after that big trade with Miami last offseason. Like the Orioles, the Blue Jays are capable of being very, very scary. They just play in the wrong division.
1. Boston Red Sox: Just like it's ridiculous to think the Yankees will be worse than last year, I also think it's unrealistic to think the Red Sox will repeat what they did in 2013. Last season, they had a chip on their shoulder and were eager to prove that their disastrous 2012 was a distant memory. Then the horror at the Marathon, and the "Boston Strong" thing was born. It was the perfect storm of events, and it led to Boston's third World Championship in a decade. But they also got a bunch of career years from guys like Johnny Gomes and Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli. Maybe those stupid beards gave them superpowers. I'm not sure you can count on career years from that many different people two years in a row. Nevertheless, Boston is probably the best team in this division. They kept their core in tact, and making sure they re-signed Napoli was very important. Along with Pedroia and Ortiz, he's the backbone of that lineup. Losing Ellsbury at the top of the lineup could be a significant blow, though. Although, Grady Sizemore winning the center field (and, presumably, leadoff) job, has the makings of a wonderful comeback story. You have to wonder when his inevitable injury will come, though. As for the pitching, which is the real reason this team is so good, it's as strong as ever. Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Buchholz and Doubront represent one of the best rotations out there. It seems likely that Koji Uehara will be a little more human this season, but the bullpen is still very intimidating. I don't think they'll be as good as last year, and they certianly don't have a chip on their shoulder anymore. But they're back to being the Red Sox. And that's a scary prospect for everyone else.
Projected Record: 94-68
Projected Lineup: Grady Sizemore-CF, Shane Victorino-RF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, David Ortiz-DH, Mike Napoli-1B, Johnny Gomes-LF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Will Middlebrooks-3B, Xander Bogaerts-SS
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, Clay Buchholz, Felix Doubront
Closer: Koji Uehara
2. New York Yankees: Again, this may be fan speak, but I don't see how the Yankees can be any worse than they were last year, which is why I don't understand the projections of 82-84 wins that I've seen. For starters, the entire lineup isn't injured. The key guys being healthy alone is enough to think the Yankees will be at least a few games better this year than last season. And, just like the last time they missed the playoffs, they went out and filled some major holes through free agency. In hindsight, letting Russell Martin go to Pittsburgh was a terrible mistake. After having a big hole behind the plate last season, Brian McCann, the best free agent catcher available, has filled it. Jacoby Ellsbury is a better version of Brett Gardner, and if Carlos Beltran can still hit, that could prove to be a tremendous steal. (Even though I don't get the whole five starting outfielders thing.) Of course, everyone expected Robinson Cano to re-sign, and when he didn't it was a shock to the system. A-Rod's suspension wasn't much of a surprise, except it created another need. That's why Beltran and Ellsbury came as a bit of a surprise. They needed both a second baseman and a third baseman, as well as someone who'll give Jeter a chance to get some DH days and a backup for Teixeira. They didn't really get any of those things (Kelly Johnson doesn't count; he isn't good). The other guy everyone just assumed was going to be a Yankee is Masahiro Tanaka, and his addition certainly strengthens a rotation that took a slight hit with the retirement of Andy Pettittte. I also like re-signing Kuroda, who was good last season until he overwork caught up to him. CC will hopefully bounce back, and Nova should be good without this whole back-and-forth to the Minors thing to worry about. And Michael Pineda getting the fifth spot in the rotation is no surprise. That's why they got him in that trade with the Mariners two years ago. The bullpen is full of question marks without Mariano Rivera, the greatest ever, at the back end, but David Robertson deserves this chance to be the closer. They're not as good as Boston and might not be as good as Tampa Bay, either, but this Yankees team is more than capable of bouncing back and making a return to the postseason. Don't forget this, either. The last time the Yankees missed the playoffs prior to last season was 2008. They won the World Series in 2009. If they manage to do that again, what a way it would be for Derek Jeter to go out.
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card)
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Derek Jeter-SS, Carlos Beltran-RF, Alfonso Soriano-DH, Mark Teixeira-1B, Brian McCann-C, Kelly Johnson-3B, Brian Roberts-2B, Brett Gardner-LF
Projected Rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda
Closer: David Robertson
3. Tampa Bay Rays: I'm probably underestimating the Rays, just like everyone does every year. No matter what the projection, Tampa Bay ends up winning somewhere in the vicinity of 90 games and in or close to the playoffs. And this year's team isn't much different from last year's, which won a tiebreaker game in Texas and the Wild Card Game in Cleveland. As long as they've got Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and Wil Myers, the offense is going to be in good shape, and Tampa Bay is no longer a place guys immediately escape once they become free agents. I also love Desmond Jennings in center field. The real key guy for the Rays, though, is David Price. Price was a free agent this offseason, and he returned to Tampa on a one-year deal. But the possibility remains that this is his last year in Tampa. Locking up Price long-term is something the Rays need to prioritize, because he's the best pitcher they've ever had, as well as the anchor of that rotation. Alex Cobb and Matt Moore are good, but they're not aces. The lineup is very good, but the rotation doesn't quite stack up in a strong AL East. Of course, this has been said about the Tampa Bay rotation before, but it's simply not that good without Jeremy Hellickson in that two spot behind Price. The bullpen has always been one of the Rays' major strengths, and I don't think this season will be any exception. They've got former A Grant Balfour closing now. I'm not sure if that's an improvement over Fernando Rodney, but it's certainly not a downgrade. While I don't think Tampa Bay is as good as either the Red Sox or the Yankees, they're definitely capable of making life difficult for those two. Joe Maddon has become a master of making something out of nothing, and he's certainly had worse teams than this one. The Rays making the playoffs wouldn't come as a surprise at all, and winning the division is even possible.
Projected Record: 86-76
Projected Lineup: David DeJesus-LF, Wil Myers-RF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, Desmond Jennings-CF, Matt Joyce-DH, Jose Molina-C, Yunel Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: David Price, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi
Closer: Grant Balfour
4. Baltimore Orioles: The talent's there in Baltimore. But after that magical run to the playoffs in 2012, they regressed back to a tie for third place last year. The reason is pitching, which will always be their Achilles heel in the loaded AL East. There's no describing the impact Dylan Bundy will have one he finally establishes himself as the ace of the Baltimore rotation, which could be as early as the end of this season. It's not that Chris Tillman and Ubaldo Jimenez and Wei-Yin Chen are bad. They just don't strike the same fear into you as a David Price or a CC Sabathia or a Jon Lester. I also have no idea what's going on with their bullpen or who the closer is. As for the lineup, which everyone knows is good, bringing in Nelson Cruz was a great signing. They needed another power guy to put behind Davis, who'll be pitched to a lot differently this season after his breakout 2013. Cruz fits the mold of what the Orioles were looking for, and Camden Yards is a perfect hit for him. My concern about the Orioles, though, is Manny Machado's injury. Machado is probably their best player, and who knows how long he's going to be out. Very few people expected him to be ready to start the season, but their replacement options at third base are few and far between. I'm not a big WAR guy. (In fact, I'm not a WAR guy at all. I think it's very stupid.) But Machado's absence will definitely be felt. Same thing about Brian Roberts, who became expendable because of the amount of time he missed with injuries. But Roberts is better than Steve Lombardozzi, who they picked up in a trade with Washington to be their regular second baseman. Steve Lombardozzi shouldn't be an everyday starter on any Major League team. And losing Nate McLouth might not seem like much, but no Roberts and no McLouth means no leadoff hitter. They tried Nick Markakis there during the playoff run two years ago with a certain level of success, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Buck try it again. The heart of the lineup is very solid, but there are some significant holes at the top and bottom. In the AL East, that's a problem.
Projected Record: 78-84
Projected Lineup: Nick Markakis-RF, J.J. Hardy-SS, Chris Davis-1B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Adam Jones-CF, Matt Wieters-C, Ryan Flaherty-3B, David Lough-LF, Steve Lombardozzi-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Michael Gonzalez, Wei-Yin Chen, Michael Gonzalez
Closer: Darren O'Day
5. Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays' 2013 season was similar to the Yankees' 2013 season. A ton of expectations, then a ton of injuries and a last-place finish in a disappointing season that never really got off the ground. But if all healthy and playing the way they're capable of, this is a dangerous lineup. It starts at the top with Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera, and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have both been doing their thing long enough now. Throw in Brett Lawrie and Adam Lind, and you know the Blue Jays are going to score some runs. That shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody, mainly because that's not Toronto's problem. The Blue Jay pitching hasn't been at the level it needs to be, and it still isn't. R.A. Dickey had a season for the ages with the Mets in 2012, but they knew it would be tough for him to duplicate and wisely sold high. Dickey was just average last year, and he needs to be more the 2012 Mets version if the Blue Jays want him to go against No. 1 starters. Personally, I think their best pitcher is Mark Buehrle. Buehrle's not the pitcher he was a couple years ago with the White Sox, but he's still a very good Major League starter who's going to give you 200 innings and 15-18 wins. No one knows when J.A. Happ is going to return, so it's not even worth discussing him as a part of this rotation right now. Although a healthy Happ is a very valuable member of this pitching staff. Steve Delabar (somehow) and Brett Cecil were both All-Stars last season, but I still don't think too much of the bullpen. Last season, everyone thought Toronto was going to make a big splash and potentially win the AL East before they ended up finishing last. This year's expectations are much more grounded. The AL East is going to be very tough to win, but if everything goes right, a wild card isn't out of the question. This division is that competitive, and everybody is thatclose.
Projected Record: 76-86
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS, Melky Cabrera-LF, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Adam Lind-1B, Brett Lawrie-3B, Colby Rasmus-CF, Dioner Navarro-C, Ryan Goins-2B
Projected Rotation: R.A. Dickey, Drew Hutchison, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan
Closer: Brett Cecil
So...now that we've run through every division, here's a summary of how I see October playing out:
AL Wild Card: Yankees def. Angels
ALDS: Tigers def. Yankees, Rangers def. Red Sox
ALCS: Rangers def. Tigers
NL Wild Card: Giants def. Braves
NLDS: Dodgers def. Giants, Nationals def. Cardinals
NLCS: Dodgers def. Nationals
World Series: Dodgers def. Rangers
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