Even though there were some fairly obvious things about the NCAA women's bracket, that doesn't mean there weren't surprises. For starters, why is South Carolina a 1-seed? And I don't understand how Louisville's a 3. They're 30-4 this season, and three of those losses are to UConn (and they went to the National Championship Game last season, where they also lost to UConn, so make that four of their last five losses to the Huskies). That means they have a grand total of one loss to everybody other than the best team in the nation. I might've been able to make my peace with a 2, but a 3? Definitely not.
Ultimately, I don't really think it matters that much. Louisville is hosting a Regional, so they have to go there. Same thing with Stanford, which deserved the fourth No. 1 over South Carolina. But it's actually the Cardinal that have the advantage out West. South Carolina may be the 1-seed, but they've got to fly coast-to-coast for both the first/second rounds in Seattle and the regional at Stanford. Stanford has to go to Iowa State, but then gets to play the Regional at home.
And that brings me to the home regionals. I'm not a fan. With a berth in the Final Four on the line, the game should be on a neutral floor. Notre Dame is the only 1-seed hosting a Regional, which means that, theoretically, three of the four 1-seeds will have to play a road game in the Elite Eight. For UConn (at Nebraska), it's not really gonna matter, but don't be surprised to see Stanford beat South Carolina and Louisville knock off Tennessee, simply because of that home court advantage. Fortunately, it looks like next year, they'll be moving back to neutral site regionals. That's the way it should be. There are too many good teams, and, again, one of them shouldn't have to go on the road with the Final Four at stake. (No problem with the home teams in the first two rounds. It's necessary for attendance, and the disparity is great enough that the good teams should get that benefit. The higher seeds shouldn't have to play road games in the Tournament, though.)
Anyway, on to the field. UConn goes in as the undisputed favorite, and it sure looks like we're headed to a UConn-Notre Dame showdown. That would be incredible. Two undefeated teams, former bitter conference rivals, meeting in the National Championship Game. In fact, I think Notre Dame is the only team that has any chance of beating UConn. Although, we saw Louisville play the perfect game to beat Baylor last year, so it's certainly possible that will happen again. I just don't think it will.
As it should be for the No. 1 overall seed, UConn's route to Nashville is pretty straightforward. Home games in rounds one and two should be two overwhelming victories. The Sweet 16 game against Nebraska, on the Huskers' home floor, could be interesting, though. That might end up being UConn's toughest game of the tournament. The Huskies will win, but I don't even remember the last time they had to play a road game in the Tournament. The bottom portion of this bracket sets up for a Texas A&M-Duke matchup, and a Duke win would set up the Blue Devils to lose in the Elite Eight yet again.
Out West, Stanford's the No. 2 seed, but you've gotta see them as the favorite to get to Nashville. The back-and-forth travel is going to wear on South Carolina. I don't think South Carolina's better than Stanford, either. I especially don't like them on Stanford's home floor. I'm not even sure I see South Carolina beating the Michigan State-North Carolina winner. The biggest obstacle towards Stanford getting back to the Final Four might be Iowa State. That's a dangerous 7-seed, especially playing at home. I think Stanford comes through, but if they don't, look out for Penn State. Not many people are talking about them, but the Big Ten champs may be your tournament sleeper.
Notre Dame's region has the 2, 3 and 4-seeds hosting the first and second rounds, while the Irish will have to play a pair of neutral site contests in Toledo before returning to South Bend for the Regional. I don't think Robert Morris and Vanderbilt-Arizona State will provide much of a challenge for the Fighting Irish, but they'll get some competition in the Regional. Purdue is very good, Kentucky is desperate to get to the Final Four after three straight Elite Eight losses, and Baylor went 30-4 in its first year post-Griner. They're also eager to make up for last year. Throw in a Cal team that went to the Final Four last season and you've got perhaps the most competitive region. Notre Dame is the best team and should get through, but there will be plenty of good games in this region.
The region with the most intrigue, though, that's Louisville. People were upset the Louisville men got a 4. They're probably just as upset the women are a 3. Especially since Louisville is better than West Virginia, which got the 2 (probably based on the strength of the Big 12, which put eight teams in the field). Both of those teams have to win road games in round two, though. Louisville should get by Iowa, but I can see LSU pulling off the upset against West Virginia. The No. 1 seed in this region is what makes it so interesting, though. Tennessee hasn't been to the Final Four in five years. That's the longest drought in program history. Where's the Final Four this year? That's right, Nashville. You can bet Tennessee wants to be there pretty badly. Their whole season has been played with the Final Four in Nashville in mind. I can't wait for that Tennessee-Louisville regional final.
I'm not going with the chalk for my Final Four. You'd have to be a complete idiot or be going out on some crazy limb to think UConn and Notre Dame won't be there, but, as for the two SEC teams, I'm not so sure. I think Tennessee's chances are better than South Carolina's, but I'm not sure either one gets there. Stanford will win the regional at home, and I think Louisville might, as well. In a minor upset, I'm going with the Cardinals to knock off the Lady Vols.
That gives us UConn vs. Stanford and Notre Dame vs. Louisville. Three-quarters of last year's Final Four returns. Except this time we get the final we all want. UConn vs. Notre Dame. Last year, the Huskies won that incredible semifinal game. It'll be for the title this year, but I don't think the result will be any different. UConn caps an undefeated season with a second straight national title.
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