With Opening Day right around the corner, it's time to shift the focus of the baseball preview to the division with the biggest clear-cut favorite. I'm of course talking about the AL Central, aka. The Tigers and Four Other Teams. The window is closing in Detroit, but even with Jim Leyland gone and Brad Ausmus now in charge, I don't think it's closing enough for somebody else to come and slam it. Cleveland and Kansas City are getting better, but they're not there yet. Once again, this is Detroit's division to lose.
My biggest questions regarding the AL Central are: How early will the Tigers clinch? How many games will they win the division by? And, will they get homefield throughout the playoffs? (If they'd had it in the ALCS last year, they probably would've won the pennant.) That's not to say the Indians can't repeat their success of last season, when they made that surprising run that saw them host the Wild Card Game and earn Terry Francona Manager of the Year honors. That's also not to say that Kansas City can't pull a 2013 Pirates.
The only AL Central teams that I know have no shot at the playoffs are the White Sox and Twins. Minnesota's in full rebuilding mode and could possibly give Houston a run for its money for worst team in baseball. As for the White Sox, I'm not sure it's possible for them to be as bad as they were last season, but they're not going to be much better, either.
1. Detroit Tigers: They know that Miguel Cabrera is their best player. That's obvious to everyone, and that massive extension just reaffirmed what everybody already knew. But they also didn't want him playing third base anymore. So...they traded Prince Fielder to the Rangers, enabling Miggy to move back to first. Sure, they took away his protection in the lineup, but flipping Fielder for Ian Kinsler was brilliant. Talk about a trade that was mutually beneficial. Kinsler had to get out of Texas, and Detroit had desperate needs for both a second baseman and a bat to stick in front of Cabrera. They also solved the Miggy at third problem while simultaneously making room for top prospect Nick Castellanos at third. Cabrera lost his protection in the lineup, but the Tigers can move enough guys around that it shouldn't really be a problem. And they like Jose Iglesias so much that they made Jhonny Peralta play left field in the playoffs before letting him go to the Cardinals as a free agent. Iglesias is out with stress fractures in both legs, though, so they signed former Marlin Alex Gonzalez to play short in the interim. As for the pitching staff, there's really very little that needs to be said. Max Scherzer is their No. 2 starter. Let me say that again, last year's Cy Young winner who went 21-3 in 2013 is the second-best pitcher on his own team. Scherzer's not going to have that type of year again, but nobody expects him to. And with the ridiculous rotation depth Detroit has, they don't need him to. Anibal Sanchez was the AL ERA champion last season, and he's No. 3. The Tigers had so many quality starting pitchers that they shipped Doug Fister off to Washington simply because they didn't have room for all of them. As for the bullpen, serious upgrade at closer with the acquisition of Joe Nathan. I still love Al Alburquerque and Phil Coke, and Detroit was the landing place of one offensive lineman-sized former Yankee. Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen.
Projected Record: 95-67
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Ian Kinsler-2B, Miguel Cabrera-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, Torii Hunter-RF, Nick Castellanos-3B, Alex Avila-C, Rajai Davis-LF, Alex Gonzalez-SS
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Drew Smyly
Closer: Joe Nathan
2. Kansas City Royals: At some point soon, the Royals are going to be that scary team nobody that's good will want to play. And a division like the AL Central is certainly for the taking if everything goes right and the Tigers stumble. This team's got 2013 Pirates written all over it. For years we've been hearing about all these great prospects in the Royals system. Well, those guys are all in the Majors now, and they're as good as advertised. The most impressive thing, though, is that Kansas City is now willing to spend some money to bring in veteran free agents to play alongside these guys. Case in point Omar Infante. Most people thought he'd end up on the Yankees after Robinson Cano signed with Seattle, then here come the Royals. My concern with Kansas City is the pitching, though. They've got the lineup pieces figured out. No gaping holes there, and the nine guys they've got are all very, very good. But in order to become legitimate contenders, they're going to have to address that pitching staff. They need more than just James Shields, who's not really an ace, but has to be one in Kansas City. Getting another veteran starter to put alongside him would be huge. The bullpen is greatly underrated. Maybe the Royals will be like their Missouri neighbors the Cardinals and get a lot out of their young pitching staff, though. If they do, I think it's not a stretch to think the Royals can challenge for a playoff spot. But again, Detroit is coming closer to the pack. And Kansas City is setting itself up nicely to be the team that takes advantage when they do.
Projected Record: 82-80
Projected Lineup: Lorezo Cain-CF, Omar Infante-2B, Eric Hosmer-1B, Billy Butler-DH, Alex Gordon-LF, Mike Moustakas-3B, Norichika Aoki-RF, Alciedes Escobar-SS, Salvador Perez-C
Projected Rotation: James Shields, Jason Vargas, Yordano Ventura, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen
Closer: Greg Holland
3. Cleveland Indians: Raise you're hand if you don't think the Indians overachieved last year. Nobody? That's what I thought. Years like that happen sometimes, though, and Cleveland's certainly got the firepower to do it again. My biggest concern with the Indians, though, is this reported plan that they want to move Carlos Santana to third base. Why? I have no problem with wanting Yan Gomes to play. He's a better catcher than Santana and has a good enough bat to warrant playing him. And the outfield's full, so they can't move Swisher from first base. So why don't they just make Santana the regular DH? Hopefully this Santana at third experiment doesn't last very long. We hadn't heard of a lot of them until last year, but Cleveland's got a very solid lineup. Oh, and Jason Kipnis is a stud. One injury note that's worth watching is a mild hamstring strain for leadoff hitter/center fielder Michael Bourn (how big did that signing end up being?). If he's out for a while, that could help solve the Santana problem, since it would shift the outfielders around and Swisher could theoretically then play right. My concern with the Indians is the pitching. Outside of Justin Masterson, their rotation doesn't really scare anybody. I don't really know who any of the other four guys are. The bullpen, however, looks like it'll be a strength. John Axford has been liberated from his setup role in St. Louis to be the Indians' closer, and he joins a bullpen that already included the likes of Vinnie Pestano, Scott Atchison and Marc Rzepczynski. Is a repeat of last year possible? Definitely. Is it likely? Probably not. I think it's more likely that the Indians end up somewhere around .500.
Projected Record: 80-82
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Nick Swisher-1B, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, Jason Kipnis-2B, Carlos Santana-DH, Michael Brantley-LF, David Murphy-RF, Yan Gomes-C, Lonnie Chisenhall-3B
Projected Rotation: Justin Masterson, Corey Kluber, Zach McAlister, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco
Closer: John Axford
4. Chicago White Sox: Somewhere along the line, the White Sox went from the only team in this division that could possibly scare the Tigers to fighting to stay out of the cellar. It probably goes back to when they let Mark Buehrle go. Although, the pitching thing isn't that big of an issue. Because Chris Sale has emerged as one of the premier lefties in the game. And I actually like the White Sox rotation better than some of the other ones in this division. I just don't know what to make of their lineup, though. They made a big splash by winning the bidding war for Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu, and they'll plug him right into the middle of the order. Except that means either Paul Konerko or Adam Dunn has to sit (unless they want to give us that entertaining experience of watching Adam Dunn try to play the outfield like we saw in Washington again). They don't really have much outside their trio of first basemen, either. Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham are good middle infielders, but they don't bring much offensively. And if you've got Dayan Viciedo and Avisail Garcia as your big RBI guys, that's when you know you've got problems. The starting pitching will be fine, but the bullpen and the lineup will be what holds the White Sox back. They'll probably be the best team in Chicago, but that's probably little consolation. That's the only title they're gonna get anything close to winning this year, though. As for the AL Central, the White Sox will be closer to the bottom than the top.
Projected Record: 73-89
Projected Lineup: Alejandro De Aza-CF, Gordon Beckham-2B, Jose Abreu-1B, Adam Dunn-DH, Dayan Viciedo-LF, Alexei Ramirez-SS, Avisail Garcia-RF, Conor Gillaspie-3B, Tyler Flowers-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Felipe Paulino, Joe Quintana, Erik Johnson, John Danks
Closer: Matt Lindstrom
5. Minnesota Twins: It was starting to become apparent when they traded both of their center fielders prior to last season. Then it became abundantly clear that the Twins were going into full-blown rebuilding mode when they traded Justin Morneau. No more M & M Boys that had defined the Twins for much of this century. Joe Mauer's still there, but he's got a change ahead of him, too, with a move to first base this season. I'm not saying I completely disagree with it. He is the face of the franchise, and he was so injury-prone that they had to get him out from behind the plate eventually. But I just didn't think it would be this soon. And it ruined Mauer's chances of being this year's David Wright. The All-Star ambassador/guaranteed starter from the home team. If he was still a catcher, I would've been shocked if he hadn't been elected as the starter. But at first base, the deepest position in the American League, he might not even make the team. Outside of Mauer, the lineup consists of Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel and not much else. As for the pitching staff, it consists of a lot of other teams' rejects. Ricky Nolasco's no higher than a No. 3, maybe a No. 2, anywhere else, but in Minnesota he's the ace. But with the low expectations that come with playing for the Twins, that also gives these guys a chance to shine. And, for the record, now that he's out of Yankee Stadium, I think Phil Hughes is going to have a fantastic year. It's a shame that closer Glen Perkins isn't going to have many save opportunities. It's an even bigger shame that in a year when the Twins are hosting the All-Star Game, their closer could end up being their only All-Star. It's going to be a long year in Minnesota. The Twins might be looking at 100 losses.
Projected Record: 64-98
Projected Lineup: Aaron Hicks-CF, Brian Dozier-2B, Joe Mauer-1B, Josh Willingham-LF, Jason Kubel-DH, Trevor Plouffe-3B, Kurt Suzuki-C, Oswaldo Arcia-RF, Pedro Florimon-SS
Projected Rotation: Ricky Nolasco, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson
Closer: Glen Perkins
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