At first glance, there aren't too many surprises out of this year's NCAA Tournament field. Everyone knew that Florida, Arizona and Wichita State were going to be the top three 1-seeds, and I had a feeling the fourth one would go to the Virginia-Duke winner. Especially with Michigan and Kansas both losing. I have absolutely no problem with Virginia being the 1 in the East.
As far as teams that didn't get in the field, SMU's the only one that I thought should've been there. Frankly, it's a bit of a surprise that the Mustangs are in the NIT. I thought they were a lock. That loss to Houston in the American quarters is probably what knocked them out. I never even considered NC State as a potential tourney team, either. You've gotta think it was NC State that knocked SMU out, and that probably speaks to the committee's respect for the ACC and lack thereof for the American (Louisville a 4!). I also think Providence winning the Big East Tournament is what knocked Xavier into the play-in game.
One of the other things I noticed was that the committee wasn't shy about taking advantage of the new seeding rules put in place this year. In the past, they couldn't put more than two teams from the same conference in the same region, and they had to keep them separated until the Elite Eight. But with so many conferences expanding to ridiculous sizes, they amended that slightly. Now they only have to be kept apart until the Sweet 16, which is the same as the women's rule. And it's definitely noticeable on the bracket. Three of the four American teams in the field are in the East, three Pac-12 teams in the South, and the Big 12's got three in the West.
The most difficult region certainly appears to be the Midwest. You've got three of last year's Final Four teams, as well as Duke and Kentucky. Whoever makes their way to Dallas out of that region is certainly going to earn it. The easiest path to Dallas, meanwhile, looks like Florida's. Although, the Gators are the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, so if anybody deserves an easy bracket, it's them. This is a team that's been to three straight Elite Eights. Everything looks to be in place for them to get over the hump this year.
Kansas was probably in the discussion for the last 1-seed until Embiid's injury, and after they lost their first game in the Big 12 Tournament, you knew they weren't going to get it. Syracuse also looked like a lock for a 1-seed for a while, but had its flaws quickly exposed once that winning streak ended. Syracuse does look like the most likely team to meet Florida in the Regional Final, though. They're playing virtual home games in the first two rounds in Buffalo, and that matchup with Ohio State will be a good one, but one they should survive. And I don't trust Kansas to even beat the New Mexico-Stanford winner, which leaves Syracuse coming out of the bottom half there. One last note about the South, don't be surprised if VCU-Stephen F. Austin is this year's 5-12 upset.
I'm very intrigued by some of the possible games in the East. You've got Memphis-GW, Cincinnati-Harvard, North Carolina-Providence and UConn-St. Joe's, and that's just in the first round! Then there's the old Big East battle between UConn and Villanova just to get to the Garden. In fact, four teams that were in last season's incarnation of that conference have a chance to play a regional at MSG. There are also crazy good teams from Michigan State and Iowa State, both of which are coming off conference titles. I think that's who we're going to see meeting on the Garden floor with a berth in the Final Four on the line.
Out west, Arizona's got to be considered the favorite, but I think this is going to be the region where we see a lot of upsets. Oklahoma has the potential to be a sleeper, and so does San Diego State. I think the winner of that game will give Arizona a very hard time. Baylor might be in the best position, though. They've got a very favorable draw to make a deep run. Although, the same can be said about Doug McDermott and Creighton. That's going to be a very entertaining second-round game. And this might finally be the year we see Wisconsin in the Final Four. They're playing the first two rounds in Milwaukee, and I think they've got a great shot at slowing down Arizona in Anaheim. I'm going to say Arizona, but there are four or five teams I can see winning the West region.
Then there's the Midwest. Picking this one is hard for a very different reason. There are so many good teams, it's almost impossible to separate them. It's probably on purpose that Wichita State was given the toughest region. They're undefeated, but didn't play a very tough schedule. In order to get to the Final Four, though, they might have to beat (in order) Kentucky, Louisville and Michigan/Duke. Not exactly the easiest road to the Final Four. Even though I'm professionally obligated to pick against Louisville in the first round, I love the way they rolled through the American Tournament, and I think they were grossly underseeded, especially with how much the committee loves Rick Pitino. Same thing with Duke. I thought they might be a 2, although I'm not overly upset with them being a 3. I was also impressed with Michigan's run to the Big Ten final, even though it might've cost them a 1-seed. A rematch of last year's National Championship Game with a trip to the Final Four at stake isn't out of the question. (Once again, professional obligations prevent me from making an official pick in the Midwest.)
Whoever comes out of the Midwest is going to have the advantage against the West winner in the Final Four. My other Final Four matchup is a rematch of the 2000 National Championship Game between Michigan State and Florida. The Gators are just too good, though. The last time they were the No. 1 overall seed with a senior-laden roster, they won their second straight national title. Well, seven years later, Florida is once again far-and-away the best team in the nation. I'd be very surprised to see someone else crowned National Champions on April 7.
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