Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Stanley Cup Playoff Preview

The next two months are going to be awesome.  Why?  Two words: PLAYOFF HOCKEY!  This year's Stanley Cup Playoffs are going to be even better than in years past because, thanks to the NHL's new TV deal with NBC, every game will be televised nationally.  If you actually want to watch Florida vs. the Devils for whatever reason, now you can (although in New York, I'd be able to watch the Devils anyway).  You're no longer limited to just Philadelphia-Pittsburgh, Boston-Washington or whatever other series is dubbed the "national" one.  Instead of just NBC and NBC Sports Network, CNBC and NHL Network will also carry games in the first round (which one is considered the truTV of the Stanley Cup Playoffs?).  The regional networks will still do the first-round games, but every game from the second round on will be national.

But I digress.  The Canucks won the President's Cup, which isn't easy to do the year after losing the Finals.  The defending champion Bruins won their division again, too.  Meanwhile, the Panthers and Coyotes won division titles for the first time EVER and the Rangers had the best record in the Eastern Conference for the first time since their Stanley Cup season of 1994.  But this is the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  Upsets happen all the time, and one hot goalie can carry you very far.  As for the first-round matchups, here's a look:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Rangers vs. (8) Senators-The Rangers were the best team in the Eastern Conference all season, but they struggled down the stretch, dropping three of their last four (although, in fairness, those games were against Boston, Pittsburgh and Washington after they'd already clinched).  Everyone thought they were going to play the Capitals, but the Senators ended the season on a three-game losing streak of their own to drop down to the No. 8 seed.  The Rangers probably aren't the biggest fans of that development.  It was Ottawa that won the season series, 3-1.  The Senators present a matchup nightmare for the Rangers, which is how they won three of the four games during the regular season.  Their top line is as good as any in the NHL, and Jason Spezza completely owned the Rangers during the season.  Henrik Lundqvist needs to play like the guy who's probably going to win the Vezina and the Rangers defense needs to find some way to slow down the Ottawa offense.  The Rangers were so good during the regular season because they were capable of winning in so many different ways.  That'll benefit them in the playoffs.  Plus, they're the better and deeper team.  In a best-of-7, that's going to make a difference.  Besides, they've got home ice in a playoff series for the first time in 16 years.  They're not going to squander that opportunity.  Rangers in six.

(2) Bruins vs. (7) Capitals-For a while, it looked like the defending champs were destined for a matchup with the division-rival Senators.  Instead, they get the Capitals, one of the most inconsistent teams in hockey.  Washington's offense is incredibly dynamic, but it can also be incredibly bad (like last year, when the Capitals went out with a whimper against Tampa Bay in the second round).  The Capitals need to rely on their offense, though, because their defense isn't very good.  Boston's defense is anchored by that scary individual known as Zdeno Chara.  The Bruins are good in all three elements of the game.  That's why they won the Cup last year.  That's why it wouldn't be surprising to see them make another run this season.  I think Boston is a flawed team.  But not flawed enough to slip up against Washington in the first round.  This series also features a matchup of two of the most overrated players in hockey in Alex Ovechkin and Tim Thomas.  Bruins in five.

(3) Panthers vs. (6) Devils-The Florida Panthers ended their 13-year playoff drought by winning the first division title in franchise history.  The Panthers' overall record isn't even over .500, but most of their losses came in either overtime or the shootout.  Those one-point losses gave them the division crown over Washington in the NHL's worst division (although the Northwest gives the Southeast a run for its money).  The Devils, meanwhile, finished fourth in the best division in hockey.  They pretty much knew that they were going to be the six-seed and play whoever won the Southeast, and I'm sure that was fine with them.  This matchup incredibly favors the Devils.  Martin Brodeur is a legend.  But he's also getting old.  Let's see if he has another run in him.  The Devils will probably win this series, but I don't think they're capable of holding up for four rounds.  The last time Florida made the playoffs, they got swept by the Rangers.  In fact, the only time the Panthers have ever won a playoff series is when they made it all the way to the Finals in 1996.  The Panthers were a great story in the NHL this year, but the only question regarding their chances in the playoffs is about how many games they're going to win.  It'll be less than four.  Devils in six.

(4) Penguins vs. (5) Flyers-The Penguins gave the Rangers a run for their money for the top seed, finishing one point back.  They can thank the Flyers for that.  Philadelphia won the season series between these two, although they split two meetings last week.  This is by far the best first-round series.  You've got two bitter rivals, both of which are capable of hoisting the Cup come June.  Pittsburgh's got all of the weapons necessary to make a deep run.  This Penguins team might even be better than the one that won the Stanley Cup three years ago.  But the Flyers are a matchup nightmare for them.  Philly knows Pittsburgh better than anybody, and the Flyers have the weapons both to shut down Crosby and Malkin or score with them.  Goaltending has always been Philadelphia's Achilles heel in the postseason, which is why they brought in Ilya Bryzgalov.  It's time for him to earn his contract.  This isn't just the best series on paper.  It'll probably be the best one on the ice, too.  I expect it to go seven and will be very surprised if it doesn't.  So who do I give the edge to?  Pittsburgh has the home ice and more playoff experience.  I think that's enough to make a difference in a series between two very evenly-matched teams.  Penguins in seven.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Canucks vs. (8) Kings-Seemingly without anybody noticing, the Canucks cruised to another division title, then held off both the Blues for the No. 1 seed in the West and the Rangers for the President's Cup.  That means the Canucks have home ice no matter how long their playoff run is, although we saw in Game 7 of last year's Finals that home ice doesn't guarantee victory.  The Kings were involved in that crazy four-team race in the Pacific Division and ended up with the No. 8 seed and a matchup with Vancouver.  LA is one of the best young teams in the league, but Vancouver is perhaps the most complete team in this year's postseason field.  In my opinion, they were that last year, as well, when they didn't get the job done.  Considering all of the potential first-round opponents the Canucks could've drawn, the Kings present probably the best matchup for them.  Roberto Luongo's inconsistent in net, but against a team like the Kings, that's not going to hurt Vancouver as much as it might in later rounds.  LA might steal a game or two, but the better team will prevail.  Canucks in five.

(2) Blues vs. (7) Sharks-The Florida Panthers were a great story this season.  But not as good as the St. Louis Blues.  We all saw this coming when John Davidson took over as Blues president a few years ago, and this year it all came to fruition under Ken Hitchcock, who should win the Adams Award as Coach of the Year.  The Central Division has been all about the Red Wings for so long that everyone just expected Detroit to win another division title.  But like the Rangers, all the Blues did was win every night, in a number of different ways.  Also like the Rangers, St. Louis drew an unfavorable matchup in the first round of the playoffs.  San Jose is notorious for underachieving in the playoffs.  The Sharks' window of opportunity is rapidly closing.  They know that.  They even flirted with not making it this season.  But the ridiculous talent on that team makes them an incredibly dangerous No. 7 seed.  If the Sharks ever put it all together during the playoffs, look out Western Conference!  Talent-wise, I'm inclined to pick San Jose.  My head tells me that St. Louis will find a way to pull this series out, though.  It really wouldn't surprise me to see either of these teams in the Finals.  Blues in seven.

(3) Coyotes vs. (6) Blackhawks-Coyotes-Blackhawks is in contention with Panthers-Devils as worst series of the first round.  Despite playing in a division that included better teams in San Jose and Los Angeles, the Coyotes managed to win the Pacific Division title.  For a team whose future is still up in the air, I give the Coyotes' players a ton of credit for not letting any of that distract them.  They lost in the first round to the Red Wings last season, while Chicago lost its annual postseason matchup with Vancouver.  I think that Coyotes team that lost to Detroit last year was better than this season's club.  Phoenix has too many question marks to be considered a serious Cup contender.  Chicago's the better, more complete team.  And let's not forget, the Blackhawks won the Cup two years ago.  I think Chicago's playoff experience will come into play, but it won't be the deciding factor.  Like the Devils, the Blackhawks are the No. 6 seed in the conference despite finishing fourth in their own division.  Regularly playing against St. Louis, Detroit and Nashville in the Central Division was like being in the playoffs every night.  Phoenix had no such luck in the Pacific Division.  Blackhawks in six.

(4) Predators vs. (5) Red Wings-Finally, we've got the two teams that want to move to the Eastern Conference.  I don't even remember the last time Detroit didn't have home ice in the first round of the playoffs, but it's the Predators that'll be at home if this series goes the distance.  That's not a completely inconceivable scenario.  Despite being the No. 5 seed, the Red Wings can't be counted out to make a long run.  Not with those veterans and all that playoff experience they have.  That's why it was important for Nashville to finish with more points than the Red Wings.  Detroit was close to unbeatable at home this season, as that ridiculous home-ice winning streak in the middle of the season indicates.  The Red Wings are a different team on the road.  If Game 7 was scheduled for Detroit, there's no way the Predators would win it.  As it is, a Game 7 in Nashville is a whole new ballgame.  The Predators won a playoff series for the first time in franchise history last year.  This year, they've earned home ice in a playoff series for the first time.  It goes without saying that Nashville has been the most successful of the four late-90s expansion teams.  While still considered a longshot, the Predators are definitely at least in the discussion as a possible Finals participant from the Western Conference.  This series is why I'm glad every game of this year's playoffs is going to be nationally televised.  It'll be a beauty.  It's also a toss-up.  Predators in seven.

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