Friday, April 27, 2012

Stanley Cup Playoffs, Round 2

A couple observations from Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs before we move on to my analysis of Round 2. 
  • All eight seeds went 1-1 in the first round. 
  • The 1, 5, 6 and 7 seeds advanced in the East, while it's 2, 3, 4 and 8 in the West. 
  • I don't even remember the last time there weren't any Canadian teams in the second round, but that's the case this year.  Vancouver and Ottawa both lost, and the other five didn't make the playoffs.
  • So much for that Penguins-Canucks Finals everyone was expecting.  The Flyers did everybody a HUGE favor by knocking out Pittsburgh.
  • We don't get our annual Flyers-Bruins and Canucks-Blackhawks playoff series this year.  However, Rangers-Capitals is quickly becoming a postseason tradition.
  • Of the four teams remaining in the West, the most recent Conference Finals appearance was by the Blues in 2001 and the most recent Stanley Cup Finals appearance was by the 1993 Kings.  None of the four has ever won the Cup.  In fact, the Phoenix-Nashville winner will be a conference finalist for the first time in franchise history.  Meanwhile, the four teams that have dominated the West in recent years: Detroit, Vancouver, San Jose and Chicago, were the ones sent home in the first round.
  • I'm glad the actual NHL teams proved how stupid this whole four "conferences" idea was themselves.  All four remaining Eastern Conference teams are from the "Patrick" Conference.  They're also all separated by a grand total of 225 miles (New York to Washington, with Philadelphia in the middle) down I-95.
Now on to my thoughts on the four Conference Semifinal series.  The winners here are halfway to the Cup.

Rangers-Capitals: Everybody thought this series was going to happen, it's just a round later than we all expected.  Both teams got through the last round in seven games, with Washington beating the defending champs in overtime on the road to clinch the series.  That could give them a huge boost of confidence going into round two.  The Rangers, meanwhile, survived a scare against a Senators team that wasn't a good matchup for them at all.  The Rangers wanted to play Washington instead of Ottawa in the last round because the Capitals are a much better matchup.  That's still the case.  Personally, I think Washington is one of the most overrated teams in hockey.  The Capitals don't know how to play defense.  Their usual M.O. is to try and outscore you.  That's why they've been sent home early in the last couple years.  However, that approach worked against Boston.  (Although, in fairness, Tim Thomas is just as overrated as Alex Ovechkin.)  With that being said, the Rangers' defense is better than the Bruins' and Boston doesn't have Henrik Lundqvist.  Throw in an offense that never really got going against Ottawa, but has added a dangerous weapon in Chris Kreider, and the Rangers certainly have the edge.  Sure, the Capitals have knocked the Rangers out of the playoffs twice in the past three years.  But Washington had the home ice each time.  With Vancouver out, the Rangers are the de facto President's Trophy winners now.  It made a difference in Game 7 against Ottawa.  If this series goes seven, it will again.  I don't think it goes seven, though.  Rangers in six.

Flyers-Devils: Well, the Flyers sure turned the playoffs upside-down with that series win over the Penguins, didn't they?  In what was probably the craziest of all the first-round series, Claude Giroux went absolutely nuts, with the rest of the Flyers' offense not too far behind.  I'm still not entirely sure how they beat Pittsburgh, but I'm glad they did.  Their reward for doing so is a second round series against possibly the only team they hate as much as the Penguins--the New Jersey Devils.  I give the Florida Panthers a lot of credit.  The Devils are a much better team than they are, but that series went all the way to double-overtime in Game 7.  At times against the Panthers, Martin Brodeur played like the Martin Brodeur of 10 years ago.  I'm not sure he'll have the same type of luck against Giroux and Co., though.  This matchup is a difficult one to handicap.  The Flyers' offense is clearly better.  Significantly so.  But Ilya Bryzgalov hasn't really been tested yet.  He didn't have to win them any games in the first round, so the questions regarding Bryzgalov are still there.  (Remember, he got pulled at midseason and didn't start the Winter Classic.)  I still give the Flyers the edge, but Bryzgalov's going to need to show me something.  The fact that these teams are so familiar with each other is going to make this a very competitive series.  But the Flyers are an experienced playoff team, and they have the home ice.  I'm taking Philly.  Flyers in seven.

Blues-Kings: Of all the first round results, LA over Vancouver in five is the one that shocked me the most.  The Canucks are far and away a better team than the Kings.  But that's what a hot goalie can do.  St. Louis, meanwhile, looked like a team that could potentially be hoisting some hardware in a few weeks against the Sharks.  The Blues completely dominated a good San Jose team in every facet of the game.  I said towards the end of the regular season that I wouldn't be surprised to see St. Louis in the Finals.  Now that they have home ice for the rest of the Western Conference playoffs, I absolutely believe that.  The Kings impressed me against the Canucks.  The Blues impressed me more against the Sharks.  St. Louis has been the better, more talented team all year.  Jonathan Quick might steal a game or two, but I don't think LA has the horsepower to win four.  Part of the reason they knocked off the Canucks was because of the sometimes shaky play of Roberto Luongo.  The Blues aren't going to have that problem.  If Jaroslav Halak struggles, they can bring in Brian Elliott, their backup goalie who made the All-Star team.  I said the same thing about Vancouver and I had to eat those words, but I don't see LA beating St. Louis.  They pulled off one upset.  Two might be a stretch.  The Blues are too talented and too disciplined.  Blues in five.

Coyotes-Predators: Pekka Rinne may single-handedly lead Nashville to the Finals.  He was THAT good against Detroit.  So good that the Predators were the first team to advance, comfortably handling the Red Wings in five despite outscoring Detroit by just four goals in the series.  Their Veniza Trophy finalist was the reason why.  He got pelted by shot after shot in the four wins and basically stood there watching in the one game Nashville lost.  Phoenix is good, but also had an incredible amount of luck on its side against Chicago.  The first five! games of that series went to overtime, with the Coyotes winning three of them.  Although, that 4-0 Game 6 victory in Chicago was certainly impressive.  On paper, these teams seem to be about even.  But there are two key factors that sway the edge towards Nashville.  The Coyotes don't have Raffi Torres.  Torres was rightfully suspended 25 games for his vicious (and dirty) hit on Marian Hossa in Game 5 of the Blackhawks series.  It didn't look like they missed him too much in Game 6, but I wonder how much of an impact not having him will have in a full best-of-seven series.  More importantly, though, the Coyotes don't have Pekka Rinne.  The Coyotes' last two seasons have been a great story.  It might've saved hockey in the desert.  But this season might be the start of something big in the Music City.  Predators in six.

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