Last season, we learned that there are three really good teams in the NL Central. There are also two really bad teams in the NL Central. The Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates all made the playoffs in 2015, and this season doesn't really project to be that much different.
This division has also exposed the main flaw of the current playoff system. The NL Wild Card Game has been Central vs. Central twice in the last three years. Both times the Central division champion was the No. 1 seed and played the wild card winner in the Division Series. Under the previous format, where teams from the same division couldn't meet in the Division Series, the Cubs and Cardinals wouldn't have been able to play the Cardinals. They were both good enough to be in the NLCS. But it was impossible for that to happen since they played in the Division Series. I know that's not going to be the case every year, but the three NL Central teams had the three best records in baseball last season, yet it was only possible for one of them to be in the NLCS.
For the first time in a while, the Cubs have the burden of expectations on them. But we all saw how well that worked out for the 2015 Nationals. The Cardinals are going to win somewhere between 84 and 90 games because they always do. The Pirates, meanwhile, really need to win the division so that they can avoid the Wild Card Game and the other team's stud starter again.
1. Chicago Cubs: It's been 108 years since the Cubs last won the World Series. Cubs fans are really thinking this might be the year that drought ends, and they've got every reason to believe. On paper, this is the best team in baseball. By a wide margin. But we've seen the Cubs crumble under the weight of expectations before. Fortunately, they have two good teams in their division to push them. They're also fortunate to have three ridiculous starting pitchers. That's right. I said three. After being smacked around by the Mets and their four bonkers starters in the NLCS, they realized they needed more than just Arrieta and Lester. Enter John Lackey. Now they're three strong at the front of the rotation. Lackey wasn't the only former Cardinal to join the Cubs' side of the rivalry during the offseason. They pulled off a major coup by snagging Jason Heyward in free agency. He was supposed to replace Dexter Fowler in center field, but, surprise, surprise, Fowler re-upped with the Cubs, turning Jorge Soler into a top-notch pinch hitter. Fresh off a World Championship, Ben Zobrist has also been reunited with mad genius Joe Maddon, further improving Chicago's lineup. And it was the acquisition of Zobrist that made Starlin Castro expendable. Oh, and did I mention they have two of the absolute best players in the game in Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant? Like I said, people have high expectations of the Cubs for good reason. This team might even be better than the 2003 squad that Steve Bartman made famous.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-CF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Kris Bryant-3B, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Jason Heyward-RF, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Miguel Montero-C, Addison Russell-SS
Projected Rotation: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks
Closer: Hector Rondon
Projected Record: 98-64
2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh has been one of the most consistently good teams in the game for the last three seasons. And all they have to show for it is one Division Series appearance and two home Wild Card Game losses (to be fair, those were against Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta). This year they could easily finish with the second-best record in the Majors but not win the division again. It's just the unfortunate situation they're in of sharing a division with the Cubs. Pittsburgh's very good. They just aren't as good as Chicago. The Neil Walker trade was very smart. They needed a starter to replace the retired A.J. Burnett, and the Mets needed to do something with Jon Niese, so this was a perfect fit for both teams. Walker's departure moves Josh Harrison to second and Jung Ho Kang to third, which moves Jordy Mercer back into the starting lineup. They've also got David Freese, so if Mercer doesn't hit (which was his problem before), Kang can move back to short. The Pirates' outfield is the team's biggest strength, though. Andrew McCutchen is on the short list of the best players in baseball, and I absolutely love both Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte. Gerrit Cole is also among the best in the game. He continues to prove why the Pirates drafted him No. 1 overall in 2011. Mark Melancon has 84 saves in two seasons since become Pittsburgh's closer. He anchors a really solid bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Starling Marte-LF, Josh Harrison-2B, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Gregory Polanco-RF, Michael Morse-1B, Jung Ho Kang-3B, Francisco Cervelli-C, Jordy Mercer-SS
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Gerritt Cole, Jon Niese, Jeff Locke, Juan Nicasio
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 90-72
3. St. Louis Cardinals: No matter what you think of the Cardinals going into the season, they always end up in the playoffs. Even though you've only heard of about half the guys on the team, St. Louis is remarkably consistent. Annoyingly so, as a matter of fact. Year after year, no matter who's injured and what random guy shows up, they win somewhere between 88-94 games before making a run in the postseason. This year they're the third-best team in the NL Central. So don't be surprised when they notch 97 wins and win the division. The pitching is one of the reasons why the Cardinals are so good. Adam Wainwright is back after missing most of last season due to that freak injury while he was batting. And they've brought in Mike Leake to fill that rotation spot vacated by John Lackey. Offensively, they're paced by the same three core guys, who are the only position players on the team you've ever heard of. Jhonny Peralta is once again injured. The Cardinals are wasting a lot of money on him. That's why they got Ruben Tejada from the Mets, although it looks like former Padres starter Jedd Gyorko is going to start the season as their everyday shortstop. They got Gyorko for Jon Jay, which means the outfield spots next to Matt Holliday are being entrusted to Randal Grichuk and Stephen Pisciotty. On paper, they aren't as good as either the Cubs are Pirates. But there's a reason the Cardinals are in the conversation every year. They're the Patriots of baseball. You can't ever count them out. You know they'll still be around come late September.
Projected Lineup: Matt Carpenter-3B, Randal Grichuk-CF, Matt Holliday-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Stephen Pisciotty-RF, Brandon Moss-1B, Jedd Gyorko-SS, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Mike Leake, Jaime Garcia, Carlos Martinez
Closer: Trevor Rosenthal
Projected Record: 88-74
4. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds haven't pulled a complete Atlanta Braves, but they've come pretty close. Cincinnati didn't gut the entire team, but it's pretty clear they aren't planning on contending, either. The one guy they did get rid of was Todd Frazier, who was probably their best player last season. They traded Aroldis Chapman to the Dodgers, only to see that fall through and send him to the Yankees instead. They tried to unload Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, too, but nobody wanted them. But with Bruce and Phillips still around to keep Joey Votto and Billy Hamilton company, the Reds are still going to score a whole bunch of runs in the Great American Small Park. Problem is, they'll also give up a lot. They no longer have a lefty-throwing Cuban fireballer at the back end of the bullpen, and the rotation's not much better. Cincinnati's best starter last season, Johnny Cueto, won a ring in Kansas City and is now applying his trade in San Francisco. Brandon Finnegan was the pitcher they got from the Royals for Cueto, and he's penciled in at No. 2 in the rotation between Raisel Iglesias. Who? Exactly. That's why the Reds are going to struggle in 2016. Especially in the NL Central, Cincinnati simply doesn't have the pitching to compete.
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Zack Cozart-SS, Adam Duvall-LF, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Devin Mesoraco-C
Projected Rotation: Raisel Iglesias, Brandon Finnegan, Alfredo Simon, Anthony DeSclafani, Homer Bailey (DL)
Closer: J.J. Hoover
Projected Record: 72-90
5. Milwaukee Brewers: Cincinnati's going to hit a little more than Milwaukee, which is why I give the Reds the slight edge in the battle for last place. But these two teams are remarkably close. The Brewers' top two players are still Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, two perennial All-Stars. This year they're surrounded by a bunch of castoffs from other teams. Jean Segura is gone, replaced by Jonathan Villar, who lost his job in Houston to Carlos Correa. Another former Astro, Chris Carter, takes over at first base for Adam Lind. Adam Hill, who they got from Arizona for Segura, steps in at third, with former Met Kirk Nieuwenhuis finally getting a chance to start full-time in center. They've made a lot of offseason changes. Just like the Chicago White Sox, all of these new faces will either gel immediately with great results, or it'll be a total disaster. It's hard to tell which way that'll go right now. Unlike the White Sox, the Brewers don't have a great starting rotation. Wily Peralta will start on Opening Day, and Matt Garza hasn't really been that good since he came to Milwaukee two years ago. I have no idea who any of those guys in the Brewers' bullpen are. Closer Francisco Rodriguez has been liberated from this disaster and will have the chance to close for a contender in Detroit.
Projected Lineup: Jonathan Villar-SS, Aaron Hill-3B, Ryan Braun-LF, Chris Carter-1B, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Domingo Santana-RF, Scooter Gennett-2B, Kirk Nieuwenhuis-CF
Projected Rotation: Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Matt Garza, Taylor Jungmann, Chase Anderson
Closer: Will Smith
Projected Record: 70-92
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
2016 Baseball Preview, Part 4
Unlike the American League, where there's a significant amount of parity and some close division races are expected, the National League is very much a tale of the haves and the have-nots. That was the case last year, and it'll probably be even more prevalent this season. But that doesn't mean we won't have any division races. In fact, I'm expecting a good one between the Mets and Nationals in the NL East.
Last season, everyone gave the National League pennant to the Nationals before Spring Training even started. Instead, they turned into the most disappointing good team in baseball. Not only did they not win the division, they missed the playoffs entirely. Despite having the unanimous MVP and a guy who threw two no-hitters!
Instead it was the Mets that won both the NL East and National League pennant in 2015. And now all the pressure is on them to repeat. We enter 2016 with the script flipped. The Mets are the overwhelming division favorite, with Washington as the potential spoiler. Miami should finish third, if only because they've got plenty of talent on their roster and they're actually going to try. Unlike the Braves and Phillies. The Mets and Nationals will play 38 games each against those two teams. Whichever one has a better record in those 38 is your likely division champion.
1. New York Mets: Expectations for the Mets are extremely high, and with good reason. They got to the World Series on the strength of that ridiculous starting pitching...and all four are back. That's reason enough to think the Mets can make another run. And, oh yeah, Zack Wheeler will be back from Tommy John surgery in July, giving them five! first-rate starters. Throw in an excellent closer in Jeurys Familia, and it'll be very hard for opposing offenses to score runs against the New York Mets this season. Of course, it was the trade deadline acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes when they really took off last season. I think the Mets were content to let Cespedes walk away in free agency, so it came as a little bit of a surprise (and a pleasant one at that) when they re-signed arguably their most important player. And, after playing for four different teams in two seasons, Cespedes will be a Met for the forseeable future. Keeping him around became a necessity when Daniel Murphy signed with the Nationals, but I actually like what the Mets did to replace Murphy. Neil Walker is better defensively and close enough to on par with Murphy offensively that the swap can be considered a push. It was also smart to trade Jon Niese, who had plenty of value to a number of other teams, for somebody they could use, and Walker definitely fits the bill. And Asdrubal Cabrera is an upgrade at short over the Ruben Tejada/Wilmer Flores tag team. Tejada and Wilmer both became cult heroes last season, but Cabrera is better than both of them, and he'll stabilize the shortstop position. The Mets may even be better than they were last season. But will it be enough to hold off the Nationals?
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson-RF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, David Wright-3B, Yoenis Cespedes-CF, Lucas Duda-1B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Michael Conforto-LF, Neil Walker-2B
Projected Rotation: Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob de Grom, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
Closer: Jeurys Familia
Projected Record: 93-69
2. Washington Nationals: The Nationals' 2015 season can only be classified as a disappointment. On a number of levels. They crumbled under the weight of expectations, despite having the best player in the National League and Max Scherzer proving that he was worth every penny they paid him. The problem was everyone else, including manager Matt Williams, who was let go and replaced by Dusty Baker, a bold move by a team with a definite "win now" mentality. Baker will need the Nationals' other players to play up to their potential, starting with everyone in the lineup not named Bryce Harper. They got Ben Revere to lead off and play center field in a trade with the Blue Jays, but it cost them closer Drew Storen. Now they're stuck with last season's trade deadline pickup, Jonathan Papelbon, who can only be classified as a cancer in the Nationals' clubhouse, as their closer. (When you start a fight in the dugout with your team's unquestioned best player, it's YOU that's the problem.) The rotation is a little thinner without Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, so Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez will really need to pitch like they did two seasons ago when Washington won the division. Snagging Daniel Murphy was a major coup, if only because it was a shot aimed directly at the Mets. The Nationals are a better team than they showed last season, when they still finished in second place. This year, they don't have the weight of expectations on them. Let's see if that's good for them.
Projected Lineup: Ben Revere-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, Bryce Harper-RF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Jayson Werth-LF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Danny Espinosa-SS, Wilson Ramos-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, Joe Ross
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Projected Record: 89-73
3. Miami Marlins: Imagine if they'd actually gotten a whole season out of both Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon last season. They still wouldn't have contended, but they could've made things a little more interesting in the NL East. The Marlins are now managed by Don Mattingly, who had a mutual divorce with the Dodgers after failing to get LA past the Division Series year after year. In Miami, he won't have as good of a team. But he also won't have the weight of the world on his shoulders, and he'll actually be able to manage without every little move being overly scrutinized. And he's definitely a better manager than Dan Jennings. Jose Fernandez is a stud, and he'll be joined in the rotation by former Oriole Wei-Yin Chen this season. Their bullpen was weakened by the loss of Steve Cishek, but new closer A.J. Ramos went 32-for-38 on saves last season. The most important guy on this team, though, obviously, is Giancarlo Stanton. He needs to stay healthy for Miami to make any noise in 2016. The rest of this young, talented lineup is very good, but Stanton is what makes the Marlins go. Regardless, third place is a virtual lock for this team. The Mets and Nationals are better than they are, while the Braves and Phillies don't care at all. And with just a couple breaks and Mattingly making the right moves, the Marlins might actually be in contention for a wild card.
Projected Lineup: Dee Gordon-2B, Martin Prado-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Justin Bour-1B, Marcell Ozuna-CF, Adeiny Hechavarria-SS, J.T. Realmuto-C
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez, Wei-Yin Chen, Tom Koehler, Adam Conley, Jarred Cosart
Closer: A.J. Ramos
Projected Record: 79-83
4. Atlanta Braves: Congratulations to Justin Upton and Shelby Miller for getting out of Atlanta while they still could. I just feel bad for Freddie Freeman. He's the one guy they've made it clear is untouchable, so he'll be subjected to this entire rebuilding process. Freeman and Nick Markakis are the only guys I've ever heard of on a team that's trying its best to be an East Coast version of the Oakland A's. Another one bit the dust the other day when they released Nick Swisher, who might be done after not hitting in both Cleveland and Atlanta last year. I think I understand what they're trying to do. But I don't like it at all. You don't have to intentionally suck now in order to be good when your new stadium opens! At least it lowers everyone's expectations. The Braves aren't going to be good. Everyone knows that. They aren't making any effort to be good. That doesn't mean they'll finish in last place, though. Because fortunately for them, the Phillies, who also play in the NL East, are equally bad. They'll battle it out for last place. Atlanta gets the slight edge for fourth because Julio Teheran is better than any starting pitcher the Phillies have.
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Erick Aybar-SS, Nick Markakis-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Hector Olivera-LF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Jace Peterson-2B, Adonis Garcia-3B
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Bud Norris, Matt Wisler, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Foltynewicz
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Projected Record: 65-97
5. Philadelphia Phillies: It wasn't that long ago that the Phillies were the poster children for all National League franchises. Those glory days are long gone, with Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz the only remnants of their 2008 World Series championship team. Philadelphia's trying to mix in some good young talent, but is still weighed down by Howard's massive contract, and he's nowhere near the player he once was. Third baseman Maikel Franco is a star in the making, and I really Odubel Herrera, too. But they've got Peter Bourjos in right field. I've made my thoughts about Peter Bourjos known in the past, and that opinion hasn't changed. But if any team can get away with having him as a starting outfielder, it's the Phillies. They're not going anywhere and they know it. That's why they traded Cole Hamels, the longtime Face of the Franchise, at the deadline last season. The new "ace" of the rotation is Jeremy Hellickson, the former AL Rookie of the Year with the Rays. Behind Hellickson are former Pirate Charlie Morton and three guys who are all 25 or younger. That's their strategy for this season. Bring the young guys up to the Major League level, take your licks, and prepare to be good in the future. It worked for the Astros. Maybe in five years, we'll be talking about the Phillies in the same way. This season, though, will be a long one. They'll be pushing the 100-loss plateau.
Projected Lineup: Odubel Herrera-CF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Maikel Franco-3B, Ryan Howard-1B, Cody Asche-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C, Cesar Hernandez-2B, Peter Bourjos-RF
Projected Rotation: Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez
Closer: Edward Mujica
Projected Record: 59-103
Last season, everyone gave the National League pennant to the Nationals before Spring Training even started. Instead, they turned into the most disappointing good team in baseball. Not only did they not win the division, they missed the playoffs entirely. Despite having the unanimous MVP and a guy who threw two no-hitters!
Instead it was the Mets that won both the NL East and National League pennant in 2015. And now all the pressure is on them to repeat. We enter 2016 with the script flipped. The Mets are the overwhelming division favorite, with Washington as the potential spoiler. Miami should finish third, if only because they've got plenty of talent on their roster and they're actually going to try. Unlike the Braves and Phillies. The Mets and Nationals will play 38 games each against those two teams. Whichever one has a better record in those 38 is your likely division champion.
1. New York Mets: Expectations for the Mets are extremely high, and with good reason. They got to the World Series on the strength of that ridiculous starting pitching...and all four are back. That's reason enough to think the Mets can make another run. And, oh yeah, Zack Wheeler will be back from Tommy John surgery in July, giving them five! first-rate starters. Throw in an excellent closer in Jeurys Familia, and it'll be very hard for opposing offenses to score runs against the New York Mets this season. Of course, it was the trade deadline acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes when they really took off last season. I think the Mets were content to let Cespedes walk away in free agency, so it came as a little bit of a surprise (and a pleasant one at that) when they re-signed arguably their most important player. And, after playing for four different teams in two seasons, Cespedes will be a Met for the forseeable future. Keeping him around became a necessity when Daniel Murphy signed with the Nationals, but I actually like what the Mets did to replace Murphy. Neil Walker is better defensively and close enough to on par with Murphy offensively that the swap can be considered a push. It was also smart to trade Jon Niese, who had plenty of value to a number of other teams, for somebody they could use, and Walker definitely fits the bill. And Asdrubal Cabrera is an upgrade at short over the Ruben Tejada/Wilmer Flores tag team. Tejada and Wilmer both became cult heroes last season, but Cabrera is better than both of them, and he'll stabilize the shortstop position. The Mets may even be better than they were last season. But will it be enough to hold off the Nationals?
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson-RF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, David Wright-3B, Yoenis Cespedes-CF, Lucas Duda-1B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Michael Conforto-LF, Neil Walker-2B
Projected Rotation: Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob de Grom, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
Closer: Jeurys Familia
Projected Record: 93-69
2. Washington Nationals: The Nationals' 2015 season can only be classified as a disappointment. On a number of levels. They crumbled under the weight of expectations, despite having the best player in the National League and Max Scherzer proving that he was worth every penny they paid him. The problem was everyone else, including manager Matt Williams, who was let go and replaced by Dusty Baker, a bold move by a team with a definite "win now" mentality. Baker will need the Nationals' other players to play up to their potential, starting with everyone in the lineup not named Bryce Harper. They got Ben Revere to lead off and play center field in a trade with the Blue Jays, but it cost them closer Drew Storen. Now they're stuck with last season's trade deadline pickup, Jonathan Papelbon, who can only be classified as a cancer in the Nationals' clubhouse, as their closer. (When you start a fight in the dugout with your team's unquestioned best player, it's YOU that's the problem.) The rotation is a little thinner without Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, so Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez will really need to pitch like they did two seasons ago when Washington won the division. Snagging Daniel Murphy was a major coup, if only because it was a shot aimed directly at the Mets. The Nationals are a better team than they showed last season, when they still finished in second place. This year, they don't have the weight of expectations on them. Let's see if that's good for them.
Projected Lineup: Ben Revere-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, Bryce Harper-RF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Jayson Werth-LF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Danny Espinosa-SS, Wilson Ramos-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, Joe Ross
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Projected Record: 89-73
3. Miami Marlins: Imagine if they'd actually gotten a whole season out of both Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon last season. They still wouldn't have contended, but they could've made things a little more interesting in the NL East. The Marlins are now managed by Don Mattingly, who had a mutual divorce with the Dodgers after failing to get LA past the Division Series year after year. In Miami, he won't have as good of a team. But he also won't have the weight of the world on his shoulders, and he'll actually be able to manage without every little move being overly scrutinized. And he's definitely a better manager than Dan Jennings. Jose Fernandez is a stud, and he'll be joined in the rotation by former Oriole Wei-Yin Chen this season. Their bullpen was weakened by the loss of Steve Cishek, but new closer A.J. Ramos went 32-for-38 on saves last season. The most important guy on this team, though, obviously, is Giancarlo Stanton. He needs to stay healthy for Miami to make any noise in 2016. The rest of this young, talented lineup is very good, but Stanton is what makes the Marlins go. Regardless, third place is a virtual lock for this team. The Mets and Nationals are better than they are, while the Braves and Phillies don't care at all. And with just a couple breaks and Mattingly making the right moves, the Marlins might actually be in contention for a wild card.
Projected Lineup: Dee Gordon-2B, Martin Prado-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Justin Bour-1B, Marcell Ozuna-CF, Adeiny Hechavarria-SS, J.T. Realmuto-C
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez, Wei-Yin Chen, Tom Koehler, Adam Conley, Jarred Cosart
Closer: A.J. Ramos
Projected Record: 79-83
4. Atlanta Braves: Congratulations to Justin Upton and Shelby Miller for getting out of Atlanta while they still could. I just feel bad for Freddie Freeman. He's the one guy they've made it clear is untouchable, so he'll be subjected to this entire rebuilding process. Freeman and Nick Markakis are the only guys I've ever heard of on a team that's trying its best to be an East Coast version of the Oakland A's. Another one bit the dust the other day when they released Nick Swisher, who might be done after not hitting in both Cleveland and Atlanta last year. I think I understand what they're trying to do. But I don't like it at all. You don't have to intentionally suck now in order to be good when your new stadium opens! At least it lowers everyone's expectations. The Braves aren't going to be good. Everyone knows that. They aren't making any effort to be good. That doesn't mean they'll finish in last place, though. Because fortunately for them, the Phillies, who also play in the NL East, are equally bad. They'll battle it out for last place. Atlanta gets the slight edge for fourth because Julio Teheran is better than any starting pitcher the Phillies have.
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Erick Aybar-SS, Nick Markakis-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Hector Olivera-LF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Jace Peterson-2B, Adonis Garcia-3B
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Bud Norris, Matt Wisler, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Foltynewicz
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Projected Record: 65-97
5. Philadelphia Phillies: It wasn't that long ago that the Phillies were the poster children for all National League franchises. Those glory days are long gone, with Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz the only remnants of their 2008 World Series championship team. Philadelphia's trying to mix in some good young talent, but is still weighed down by Howard's massive contract, and he's nowhere near the player he once was. Third baseman Maikel Franco is a star in the making, and I really Odubel Herrera, too. But they've got Peter Bourjos in right field. I've made my thoughts about Peter Bourjos known in the past, and that opinion hasn't changed. But if any team can get away with having him as a starting outfielder, it's the Phillies. They're not going anywhere and they know it. That's why they traded Cole Hamels, the longtime Face of the Franchise, at the deadline last season. The new "ace" of the rotation is Jeremy Hellickson, the former AL Rookie of the Year with the Rays. Behind Hellickson are former Pirate Charlie Morton and three guys who are all 25 or younger. That's their strategy for this season. Bring the young guys up to the Major League level, take your licks, and prepare to be good in the future. It worked for the Astros. Maybe in five years, we'll be talking about the Phillies in the same way. This season, though, will be a long one. They'll be pushing the 100-loss plateau.
Projected Lineup: Odubel Herrera-CF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Maikel Franco-3B, Ryan Howard-1B, Cody Asche-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C, Cesar Hernandez-2B, Peter Bourjos-RF
Projected Rotation: Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez
Closer: Edward Mujica
Projected Record: 59-103
Sunday, March 27, 2016
2016 Baseball Preview, Part 3
Last season, I was dead wrong about the AL West. I was a big believer in the Seattle Mariners, thinking they had all the pieces to finally contend for a division title. Well, we all know how that turned out. The Mariners were the same dysfunctional mess they always are. And the Angels, the division champions in 2014, weren't able to back it up and the best player in baseball was left watching the postseason from the sidelines for the third time in his four-year career.
I also thought there was no way the Rangers would possibly be good, then they come out of nowhere, win the division, and their rookie manager earns Manager of the Year honors. Meanwhile, the Astros arrived about a year or two early. Everyone knew they were going to be good in 2016-17. In 2015? Not so much. Yet Houston was the story of baseball for five months before fading in September. But the Astros still won the Wild Card Game and gave the Royals all they could handle in the Division Series. There's no reason not to believe they'll be around for the long haul.
About the only thing I got right was not thinking Oakland would be any good. And they weren't. And they probably won't be again. But every time I think that about the Oakland A's, they end up making the playoffs. The current team doesn't have the talent that they've traded away since making that 2014 Wild Card Game appearance, but I've decided I'm not writing Oakland off completely. Just in case something crazy happens.
This is Houston's division to lose, though. The Astros are significantly better than the other four teams. Texas will regress back to the mean, Seattle will be improved, but isn't quite there yet, and I don't know what's going on with the Angels. That's a team that should be good, but rarely is.
1. Houston Astros: All that losing they did for so long paid off in a big way last season. Now they have the burden of expectations. Let's see how they respond. I think they'll do fine. In fact, I think they might even be a little better this season. Dallas Keuchel is the reigning Cy Young winner, Collin McHugh is a solid No. 2, and their rotation got even stronger with Doug Fister coming over from Washington. And that leads into that great bullpen anchored by Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Tony Sipp. Carlos Correa is the Next Big Thing is the sport. He burst onto the scene in 2015, capturing Rookie of the Year honors at the ripe old age of 20. Just imagine how good this guy is going to be. With Correa, Jose Altuve and Carlos Gomez up the middle, Houston is set. So set, in fact, that George Springer is going to play right with Colby Rasmus in left. That gives the Astros three center fielders in their regular lineup. Chris Carter is no longer with the team, so the leading candidate to take over at first base is lefty Jon Singleton. DH Evan Gattis is currently on the shelf, too, but Houston has the pieces to overcome an injury or two. Was last season a fluke? That's the challenge they'll be up against. I don't think it was, though. All the experts agreed that the Astros had so much young talent that they were going to be a very, very good baseball team at some point in the not-too-distant future. I think that time arrived in 2015. Because I don't see any reason for this Astros train to stop rolling in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Colby Rasmus-LF, Carlos Correa-SS, Carlos Gomez-CF, George Springer-RF, Evan Gattis-DH, Jon Singleton-1B, Luis Valbuena-3B, Jason Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Doug Fister, Lance McCullers (DL), Mike Fiers
Closer: Luke Gregerson
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Seattle Mariners: While I'm not as high on the Mariners as I was last season, I still think Seattle has a decent chance of contending in the AL West. Now that the Blue Jays have ended their postseason drought, the Mariners' streak is currently the longest in baseball. But I'll give them credit for finally realizing that they need more than Felix Hernandez if they hope to end that streak. King Felix has carried this team for so long that he deserves the opportunity to pitch for a contender, and the Mariners have finally developed something that resembles a Major League lineup behind him. It all starts with Robinson Cano, of course, but Kyle Seager is a star, too, and Nelson Cruz put up fantastic numbers last season at DH. And I like the spare parts they've added to fill out the roster. Leonys Martin from Texas, Nori Aoki from the Giants, longtime Blue Jay Adam Lind from the Brewers, catcher Chris Iannetta from the Angels. It's very similar to what the White Sox did in building around a few solid core pieces and getting rid of everybody else. If it works, the Mariners may actually score more than three runs a game this season. Which I'm sure Felix would appreciate. So would the rest of the rotation, including Hisashi Iwakuma, who burned the Dodgers to return to Seattle, Taijuan Walker, who won 11 games as a rookie, and Wade Miley, who came over in a trade with the Red Sox. They even addressed their miserable bullpen, snagging Steve Cishek to close and Joaquin Benoit to set up. We've seen this before with the Mariners, where people get their hopes up only to be shot down by an underachieving bunch. But with the best player in franchise history taking his place in Cooperstown this summer, maybe some of the magic of 1995 will rub off on this current bunch and the Mariners will be playing in October for the first time since 2001.
Projected Lineup: Leonys Martin-CF, Nori Aoki-LF, Robinson Cano-2B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Kyle Seager-3B, Adam Lind-1B, Seth Smith-RF, Chris Iannetta-C, Ketel Marte-SS
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Wade Miley, Taijuan Walker, Nathan Karns
Closer: Steve Cishek
Projected Record: 83-79
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California: Does anyone know why the Angels insist on doing everything the hard way? They've got the best player in baseball, a future Hall of Famer, a reliable ace, and a ton of money to spend. Yet they make the most curious decisions on how to spend it. I like the addition of Andrelton Simmons a lot, especially since he wasn't going anywhere in Atlanta, but they also became the third different team to trade for Yunel Escobar during the 2015 calendar year. Am I missing something? When did Yunel Escobar become this valuable commodity every team decided they MUST have? (Or was he traded three times for other reasons?) And I'm glad Daniel Nava finally got liberated from Boston, but he's really your starting left fielder? With Johnny Giavotella, Kole Calhoun and C.J. Cron already in the projected lineup? I don't get it. Looks like it'll all be up to Trout and Albert again. The top of the rotation looks good with Jered Weaver, Garrett Richards and C.J. Wilson, but Weaver never gets the respect he deserves and Wilson is once again banged up. Matt Shoemaker, meanwhile, went from Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2014 to a 7-10 afterthought in 2015. Sophomore slump, or has everybody else figured him out? The bullpen's got Huston Street and a bunch of other guys not relevant enough to mention. It's just so disappointing that the Angels are what they are. Because they could be so much more. And baseball fans really want to see Mike Trout under October's bright lights. Which doesn't look like it's going to happen with the rest of the team they're going to put on the field this season.
Projected Lineup: Andrelton Simmons-SS, Johnny Giavotella-2B, Mike Trout-CF, Albert Pujols-DH, Kole Calhoun-RF, Yunel Escobar-3B, Daniel Nava-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Carlos Perez-C
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver, Garrett Richards, C.J. Wilson, Andrew Heaney, Matt Shoemaker
Closer: Huston Street
Projected Record: 80-82
4. Texas Rangers: The other surprise playoff team out of the AL West in 2015 was the other one that plays in Texas. Forgive me if I think that one was the fluke. Personally, I think the Rangers significantly overachieved last season, and I'd be surprised to see them do it again. They got a tremendous bounce-back year from Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre's an absolute beast, but I'm still shocked as to how they even made the playoffs. Let alone how they were leading Game 5 against the Blue Jays until the Bat Flip Heard Round Canada. A lot of the credit for that has to go to Cole Hamels, who was mercifully let out of baseball purgatory in Philadelphia and thrust into a pennant race on a team that needed an ace. Much to the Rangers' surprise, Hamels decided to stick around, so they'll have a dynamic 1-2 punch when Yu Darvish comes back from Tommy John surgery in May. And they've got plenty of time to make up ground with both of them in the rotation should they have a bad April. Another guy on the DL is Josh Hamilton. What else is new? The Rangers clearly don't have any clue when he'll be back, seeing as they told Ian Desmond (who I didn't even realize wasn't on the Nationals anymore) that he'll be their left fielder all season. If Desmond's playing left and Prince is ensconced at DH, where does that put Hamilton? You can't put him in right. That's where Shin-Soo Choo plays. And Delino DeShields, Jr., is too good a center fielder to mess with that. Which makes Hamilton a very expensive pinch hitter. Let's see how well that goes over.
Projected Lineup: Delino DeShields Jr.-CF, Shin-Soo Choo-RF, Adrian Beltre-3B, Prince Fielder-DH, Elvis Andrus-SS, Ian Desmond-LF, Roughned Odor-2B, Mitch Moreland-1B, Robinson Chirinos-C
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish (DL), Martin Perez, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland
Closer: Shawn Tolleson
Projected Record: 77-85
5. Oakland Athletics: What's there to say about the A's? I'm trying to be as positive as possible about teams' chances heading into the season, but I've seriously heard of about three guys on Oakland's roster. Despite pitching for an incredibly bad team, Sonny Gray finished third in Cy Young voting last year. It'll be up to him again because, honestly, I don't know how this team is going to score any runs. When your big off-season acquisition is Yonder Alonso, that pretty much sums up the state of your team. I can't even say with 100 percent certainty where guys are going to line up defensively because not only is that different every game, it seems to change in the middle of games quite frequently. I get it. Oakland's a small-market team and they have to do things differently than everybody else, including that black-and-orange-wearing team across the Bay that's due for another World Series title this season. But they've made it work in the past. As recently as two years ago, in fact. I just don't see how it's going to work with this current group. Unlike the National League, which is very top-heavy, there's a lot of parity in the AL. Most of the teams are bunched closely together without much to separate them. The exception is Oakland. I think everyone would be surprised if the A's were playing in October. Knowing that mad genius Billy Beane, though, that's what he wants us all to think. That means he's got us right where he wants us.
Projected Lineup: Billy Burns-CF, Marcus Semien-SS, Josh Reddick-RF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Billy Butler-DH, Khris Davis-LF, Stephen Vogt-C, Danny Valencia-3B, Jed Lowrie-2B
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, Chris Bassitt, Rich Hill
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 69-93
So. now that the AL is complete, to summarize the playoff picks:
East: Yankees
Central: Tigers
West: Astros
Wild Card 1: Royals
Wild Card 2: Blue Jays
AL Champion: Astros
I also thought there was no way the Rangers would possibly be good, then they come out of nowhere, win the division, and their rookie manager earns Manager of the Year honors. Meanwhile, the Astros arrived about a year or two early. Everyone knew they were going to be good in 2016-17. In 2015? Not so much. Yet Houston was the story of baseball for five months before fading in September. But the Astros still won the Wild Card Game and gave the Royals all they could handle in the Division Series. There's no reason not to believe they'll be around for the long haul.
About the only thing I got right was not thinking Oakland would be any good. And they weren't. And they probably won't be again. But every time I think that about the Oakland A's, they end up making the playoffs. The current team doesn't have the talent that they've traded away since making that 2014 Wild Card Game appearance, but I've decided I'm not writing Oakland off completely. Just in case something crazy happens.
This is Houston's division to lose, though. The Astros are significantly better than the other four teams. Texas will regress back to the mean, Seattle will be improved, but isn't quite there yet, and I don't know what's going on with the Angels. That's a team that should be good, but rarely is.
1. Houston Astros: All that losing they did for so long paid off in a big way last season. Now they have the burden of expectations. Let's see how they respond. I think they'll do fine. In fact, I think they might even be a little better this season. Dallas Keuchel is the reigning Cy Young winner, Collin McHugh is a solid No. 2, and their rotation got even stronger with Doug Fister coming over from Washington. And that leads into that great bullpen anchored by Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Tony Sipp. Carlos Correa is the Next Big Thing is the sport. He burst onto the scene in 2015, capturing Rookie of the Year honors at the ripe old age of 20. Just imagine how good this guy is going to be. With Correa, Jose Altuve and Carlos Gomez up the middle, Houston is set. So set, in fact, that George Springer is going to play right with Colby Rasmus in left. That gives the Astros three center fielders in their regular lineup. Chris Carter is no longer with the team, so the leading candidate to take over at first base is lefty Jon Singleton. DH Evan Gattis is currently on the shelf, too, but Houston has the pieces to overcome an injury or two. Was last season a fluke? That's the challenge they'll be up against. I don't think it was, though. All the experts agreed that the Astros had so much young talent that they were going to be a very, very good baseball team at some point in the not-too-distant future. I think that time arrived in 2015. Because I don't see any reason for this Astros train to stop rolling in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Colby Rasmus-LF, Carlos Correa-SS, Carlos Gomez-CF, George Springer-RF, Evan Gattis-DH, Jon Singleton-1B, Luis Valbuena-3B, Jason Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Doug Fister, Lance McCullers (DL), Mike Fiers
Closer: Luke Gregerson
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Seattle Mariners: While I'm not as high on the Mariners as I was last season, I still think Seattle has a decent chance of contending in the AL West. Now that the Blue Jays have ended their postseason drought, the Mariners' streak is currently the longest in baseball. But I'll give them credit for finally realizing that they need more than Felix Hernandez if they hope to end that streak. King Felix has carried this team for so long that he deserves the opportunity to pitch for a contender, and the Mariners have finally developed something that resembles a Major League lineup behind him. It all starts with Robinson Cano, of course, but Kyle Seager is a star, too, and Nelson Cruz put up fantastic numbers last season at DH. And I like the spare parts they've added to fill out the roster. Leonys Martin from Texas, Nori Aoki from the Giants, longtime Blue Jay Adam Lind from the Brewers, catcher Chris Iannetta from the Angels. It's very similar to what the White Sox did in building around a few solid core pieces and getting rid of everybody else. If it works, the Mariners may actually score more than three runs a game this season. Which I'm sure Felix would appreciate. So would the rest of the rotation, including Hisashi Iwakuma, who burned the Dodgers to return to Seattle, Taijuan Walker, who won 11 games as a rookie, and Wade Miley, who came over in a trade with the Red Sox. They even addressed their miserable bullpen, snagging Steve Cishek to close and Joaquin Benoit to set up. We've seen this before with the Mariners, where people get their hopes up only to be shot down by an underachieving bunch. But with the best player in franchise history taking his place in Cooperstown this summer, maybe some of the magic of 1995 will rub off on this current bunch and the Mariners will be playing in October for the first time since 2001.
Projected Lineup: Leonys Martin-CF, Nori Aoki-LF, Robinson Cano-2B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Kyle Seager-3B, Adam Lind-1B, Seth Smith-RF, Chris Iannetta-C, Ketel Marte-SS
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Wade Miley, Taijuan Walker, Nathan Karns
Closer: Steve Cishek
Projected Record: 83-79
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California: Does anyone know why the Angels insist on doing everything the hard way? They've got the best player in baseball, a future Hall of Famer, a reliable ace, and a ton of money to spend. Yet they make the most curious decisions on how to spend it. I like the addition of Andrelton Simmons a lot, especially since he wasn't going anywhere in Atlanta, but they also became the third different team to trade for Yunel Escobar during the 2015 calendar year. Am I missing something? When did Yunel Escobar become this valuable commodity every team decided they MUST have? (Or was he traded three times for other reasons?) And I'm glad Daniel Nava finally got liberated from Boston, but he's really your starting left fielder? With Johnny Giavotella, Kole Calhoun and C.J. Cron already in the projected lineup? I don't get it. Looks like it'll all be up to Trout and Albert again. The top of the rotation looks good with Jered Weaver, Garrett Richards and C.J. Wilson, but Weaver never gets the respect he deserves and Wilson is once again banged up. Matt Shoemaker, meanwhile, went from Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2014 to a 7-10 afterthought in 2015. Sophomore slump, or has everybody else figured him out? The bullpen's got Huston Street and a bunch of other guys not relevant enough to mention. It's just so disappointing that the Angels are what they are. Because they could be so much more. And baseball fans really want to see Mike Trout under October's bright lights. Which doesn't look like it's going to happen with the rest of the team they're going to put on the field this season.
Projected Lineup: Andrelton Simmons-SS, Johnny Giavotella-2B, Mike Trout-CF, Albert Pujols-DH, Kole Calhoun-RF, Yunel Escobar-3B, Daniel Nava-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Carlos Perez-C
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver, Garrett Richards, C.J. Wilson, Andrew Heaney, Matt Shoemaker
Closer: Huston Street
Projected Record: 80-82
4. Texas Rangers: The other surprise playoff team out of the AL West in 2015 was the other one that plays in Texas. Forgive me if I think that one was the fluke. Personally, I think the Rangers significantly overachieved last season, and I'd be surprised to see them do it again. They got a tremendous bounce-back year from Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre's an absolute beast, but I'm still shocked as to how they even made the playoffs. Let alone how they were leading Game 5 against the Blue Jays until the Bat Flip Heard Round Canada. A lot of the credit for that has to go to Cole Hamels, who was mercifully let out of baseball purgatory in Philadelphia and thrust into a pennant race on a team that needed an ace. Much to the Rangers' surprise, Hamels decided to stick around, so they'll have a dynamic 1-2 punch when Yu Darvish comes back from Tommy John surgery in May. And they've got plenty of time to make up ground with both of them in the rotation should they have a bad April. Another guy on the DL is Josh Hamilton. What else is new? The Rangers clearly don't have any clue when he'll be back, seeing as they told Ian Desmond (who I didn't even realize wasn't on the Nationals anymore) that he'll be their left fielder all season. If Desmond's playing left and Prince is ensconced at DH, where does that put Hamilton? You can't put him in right. That's where Shin-Soo Choo plays. And Delino DeShields, Jr., is too good a center fielder to mess with that. Which makes Hamilton a very expensive pinch hitter. Let's see how well that goes over.
Projected Lineup: Delino DeShields Jr.-CF, Shin-Soo Choo-RF, Adrian Beltre-3B, Prince Fielder-DH, Elvis Andrus-SS, Ian Desmond-LF, Roughned Odor-2B, Mitch Moreland-1B, Robinson Chirinos-C
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish (DL), Martin Perez, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland
Closer: Shawn Tolleson
Projected Record: 77-85
5. Oakland Athletics: What's there to say about the A's? I'm trying to be as positive as possible about teams' chances heading into the season, but I've seriously heard of about three guys on Oakland's roster. Despite pitching for an incredibly bad team, Sonny Gray finished third in Cy Young voting last year. It'll be up to him again because, honestly, I don't know how this team is going to score any runs. When your big off-season acquisition is Yonder Alonso, that pretty much sums up the state of your team. I can't even say with 100 percent certainty where guys are going to line up defensively because not only is that different every game, it seems to change in the middle of games quite frequently. I get it. Oakland's a small-market team and they have to do things differently than everybody else, including that black-and-orange-wearing team across the Bay that's due for another World Series title this season. But they've made it work in the past. As recently as two years ago, in fact. I just don't see how it's going to work with this current group. Unlike the National League, which is very top-heavy, there's a lot of parity in the AL. Most of the teams are bunched closely together without much to separate them. The exception is Oakland. I think everyone would be surprised if the A's were playing in October. Knowing that mad genius Billy Beane, though, that's what he wants us all to think. That means he's got us right where he wants us.
Projected Lineup: Billy Burns-CF, Marcus Semien-SS, Josh Reddick-RF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Billy Butler-DH, Khris Davis-LF, Stephen Vogt-C, Danny Valencia-3B, Jed Lowrie-2B
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, Chris Bassitt, Rich Hill
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 69-93
So. now that the AL is complete, to summarize the playoff picks:
East: Yankees
Central: Tigers
West: Astros
Wild Card 1: Royals
Wild Card 2: Blue Jays
AL Champion: Astros
Friday, March 25, 2016
2016 Baseball Preview, Part 2
Suddenly, the AL Central has gone from one of the worst divisions in baseball to one of the best. The Royals have been to back-to-back World Series and are the defending champions. They unseated the Tigers as division champions, but no one would be surprised to see Detroit reclaim its place at the top. That is, if the Indians don't. And let's not forget Minnesota, which came out of nowhere to finish second last season. I don't think anyone would be surprised to see the White Sox, who have the best pitcher in the division, end up winning the AL Central, either.
Nobody saw Kansas City coming in 2014. Even after their run to Game 7 of the World Series, the Royals still had their doubters. Most preseason projections didn't even have them finishing .500. All they did was get back to the World Series, and win it this time. Now I think everyone is finally believers in the Royals. Only this time, they're the hunted.
As close as the AL Central teams might be on paper, I think there's a definite gap between the top two and the bottom two, with Cleveland right smack in the middle. The way I see it, it'll be a battle between the Tigers and Royals for the division title, while the Twins will regress back to the mean and the White Sox are just a step behind, even with Chris Sale.
1. Detroit Tigers: Injuries and the law of averages finally caught up to the Tigers in 2015. Not only did they fail to win the AL Central for the first time in five years, they finished below .500. Things got so bad that they fired David Dombrowski (now President of the Red Sox) and traded David Price to the Blue Jays at the deadline. Well, they recovered in a big way this offseason, getting the second-best starting pitcher available behind Price in Jordan Zimmermann. Pair him with Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and you've got the best top three in the division. But the biggest move the Tigers made to improve their pitching staff was the addition of Francisco Rodriguez. The bullpen has long been their Achilles' heel. It should've have taken them this long to address it, but I'm glad they finally did. Lineup-wise, they're kind of like the Yankees in that they rely heavily on high-priced veterans and are pretty much screwed if they get hurt (like last year when Miguel Cabrera went down). But when healthy, this lineup is really formidable. J.D. Martinez has turned into a legitimate star. And we'll see if Justin Upton is worth the money after escaping San Diego. By opting not to re-sign Alex Avila, it looks like they've handed the catching duties over to James McCann. That's the one area of concern I have for the Tigers, although they're not very deep, so they could end up having the same problems as last year if they with an injury or two again.
Projected Lineup: Ian Kinsler-2B, Anthony Gose-CF, Miguel Cabrera-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, J.D. Martinez-RF, Justin Upton-LF, Nick Castellanos-3B, James McCann-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Pelfrey, Daniel Norris
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Kansas City Royals: They're not a secret anymore, and the defending champion Royals are a prime example of what can happen when you draft well. The only real question after Kansas City's first championship in 30 years is what will they do for an encore? The core of the team remains in tact, so you'd have to think they've got a decent shot of becoming the first team to win back-to-back World Series since the 1998-2000 Yankees. The biggest difference (other than the departures of Alex Rios and Ben Zobrist) is the addition of Ian Kennedy to the rotation. Kennedy was forced to be a No. 1 in San Diego, but is better suited to being a No. 3 or 4 starter, which is where he figures to be slotted with the Royals. Kansas City's biggest strength remains its ridiculous bullpen, though. And, just in case you were worried they didn't have enough stud relievers, they picked up Joakim Soria during the offseason. So, even if Wade Davis goes down, they've got an experienced closer in Soria ready to step in. That's the one are where Kansas City has gotten incredibly lucky over the past two seasons. For the most part, the Royals have been able to avoid significant injuries. But, they're also better-equipped than most other teams to handle it should one happen. That's why no one will get caught off guard by the Royals this season. Barring something catastrophic, Kansas City should be in the mix to make it three straight World Series appearances or even consecutive championships.
Projected Lineup: Alcides Escobar-SS, Alex Gordon-LF, Lorenzo Cain-CF, Eric Hosmer-1B, Kendrys Morales-DH, Mike Moustakas-3B, Salvador Perez-C, Omar Infante-2B, Jarrod Dyson-RF
Projected Rotation: Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Ian Kennedy, Chris Young, Kris Medlen
Closer: Wade Davis
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Cleveland Indians: A lot of people have high expectations for the Indians this season. And I can see why. There's a lot of talent in Cleveland. I just have too many questions to say I realistically see them challenging the Tigers and Royals for the division title. Michael Brantley, Jason Kipns and Yan Gomes are stars. Francisco Lindor is going to be a superstar. But outside of that quartet (and, to a lesser extent, Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli), I'm not overly enamored with their lineup. I think scoring runs could be an issue. Which will put a lot of pressure on the pitching staff. After winning the Cy Young in 2014, Corey Kluber went just 9-16 last year. He needs to return to his Cy Young form for the Indians to have any shot at contending. The rest of the rotation is serviceable (they all won at least 10 games last season), but they need Kluber to go back to being a true No. 1. It's the bullpen that gives me the biggest concern, though. On a small-market team like the Indians, relief pitching is the area you're most likely not to spend big on, and that's certainly the case in Cleveland. Cody Allen is vanilla as far as closers go, and I can't tell you the name of any other guys in the Indians' bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Francisco Lindor-SS, Abraham Almonte-CF, Jason Kipnis-2B, Michael Brantley-LF, Mike Napoli-1B, Carlos Santana-DH, Yan Gomes-C, Juan Uribe-3B, Lonnie Chisenhall-RF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin
Closer: Cody Allen
Projected Record: 81-81
4. Chicago White Sox: Most of the news we've heard about the White Sox lately has involved Adam and Drake LaRoche. That derailed all talk of anything else on the South Side, where there have been so many changes it seems like the entire roster is new except for Jose Abreu and Chris Sale. Brett Lawrie came over from Oakland to play second. After losing his job in LA to Corey Seager, Jimmy Rollins signed with the White Sox and will play short. Austin Jackson finished last season with the Cubs and liked Chicago so much that he just changed which part of town the ballpark's in. Alex Avila wasn't even given an offer by his father in Detroit, so he bolted for the division rival White Sox. But the biggest addition is at the Hot Corner. The White Sox pulled off a major coup by snagging All-Star third baseman (and Home Run Derby champion) Todd Frazier in a trade with the Reds. With all these new faces in the lineup, it'll be interesting to see what their team chemistry will be like. (And, frankly, LaRoche's retirement doesn't really have much of an impact.) They've got a very strong pitching staff, too. Chris Sale is obviously the anchor, but the rotation is very solid 1-5. And they, of course, have a ridiculous closer in David Robertson. If things go as well as the White Sox believe they can, the Cubs won't be the only Chicago team people will be talking about this season. It won't take much for the White Sox to contend in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Jimmy Rollins-SS, Jose Abreu-1B, Todd Frazier-3B, Melky Cabrera-DH, Alex Avila-C, Avisail Garcia-RF, Adam Eaton-LF, Brett Lawrie-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Mat Latos, John Danks
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 79-83
5. Minnesota Twins: Last season, everything went right for the Twins and then some. They were the surprise wild card contender all the way until the bitter end and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor was a Manager of the Year finalist in his first year at the helm. Can the Twins do it again? Sure. But in a loaded AL Central, it'll take a lot. The long-awaited Byron Buxton debut took place in September, and now he'll get his first full Major League season. Putting him next to Miguel Sano, last year's rookie sensation, and Eddie Rosario gives Minnesota a young, talented outfield, one that was good enough for them to deem Aaron Hicks expendable, so he was traded to the Yankees for backup catcher John Ryan Murphy. The Twins' two best players are probably Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe, but Face of the Franchise Joe Mauer has significantly less value to this team as a first baseman. And he's turned into a downright average player. Beyond that, I'm concerned about the pitching. Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana are Nos. 1 and 2 in the rotation, but on another team, they'd probably more like a 3 or 4. Which is a shame. Because Glen Perkins is one of the most underrated closers in baseball. He's been solid for the last three or four years now. The Minnesota Twins overachieved in 2015 and still didn't make the playoffs. The rest of the AL Central is better this season, so they'll have to overachieve again, and then some, to contend in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Brian Dozier-2B, Joe Mauer-1B, Trevor Plouffe-3B, Miguel Sano-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, Byung Ho Park-DH, Kurt Suzuki-C, Eduardo Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone
Closer: Glen Perkins
Projected Record: 72-90
Nobody saw Kansas City coming in 2014. Even after their run to Game 7 of the World Series, the Royals still had their doubters. Most preseason projections didn't even have them finishing .500. All they did was get back to the World Series, and win it this time. Now I think everyone is finally believers in the Royals. Only this time, they're the hunted.
As close as the AL Central teams might be on paper, I think there's a definite gap between the top two and the bottom two, with Cleveland right smack in the middle. The way I see it, it'll be a battle between the Tigers and Royals for the division title, while the Twins will regress back to the mean and the White Sox are just a step behind, even with Chris Sale.
1. Detroit Tigers: Injuries and the law of averages finally caught up to the Tigers in 2015. Not only did they fail to win the AL Central for the first time in five years, they finished below .500. Things got so bad that they fired David Dombrowski (now President of the Red Sox) and traded David Price to the Blue Jays at the deadline. Well, they recovered in a big way this offseason, getting the second-best starting pitcher available behind Price in Jordan Zimmermann. Pair him with Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and you've got the best top three in the division. But the biggest move the Tigers made to improve their pitching staff was the addition of Francisco Rodriguez. The bullpen has long been their Achilles' heel. It should've have taken them this long to address it, but I'm glad they finally did. Lineup-wise, they're kind of like the Yankees in that they rely heavily on high-priced veterans and are pretty much screwed if they get hurt (like last year when Miguel Cabrera went down). But when healthy, this lineup is really formidable. J.D. Martinez has turned into a legitimate star. And we'll see if Justin Upton is worth the money after escaping San Diego. By opting not to re-sign Alex Avila, it looks like they've handed the catching duties over to James McCann. That's the one area of concern I have for the Tigers, although they're not very deep, so they could end up having the same problems as last year if they with an injury or two again.
Projected Lineup: Ian Kinsler-2B, Anthony Gose-CF, Miguel Cabrera-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, J.D. Martinez-RF, Justin Upton-LF, Nick Castellanos-3B, James McCann-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Pelfrey, Daniel Norris
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Kansas City Royals: They're not a secret anymore, and the defending champion Royals are a prime example of what can happen when you draft well. The only real question after Kansas City's first championship in 30 years is what will they do for an encore? The core of the team remains in tact, so you'd have to think they've got a decent shot of becoming the first team to win back-to-back World Series since the 1998-2000 Yankees. The biggest difference (other than the departures of Alex Rios and Ben Zobrist) is the addition of Ian Kennedy to the rotation. Kennedy was forced to be a No. 1 in San Diego, but is better suited to being a No. 3 or 4 starter, which is where he figures to be slotted with the Royals. Kansas City's biggest strength remains its ridiculous bullpen, though. And, just in case you were worried they didn't have enough stud relievers, they picked up Joakim Soria during the offseason. So, even if Wade Davis goes down, they've got an experienced closer in Soria ready to step in. That's the one are where Kansas City has gotten incredibly lucky over the past two seasons. For the most part, the Royals have been able to avoid significant injuries. But, they're also better-equipped than most other teams to handle it should one happen. That's why no one will get caught off guard by the Royals this season. Barring something catastrophic, Kansas City should be in the mix to make it three straight World Series appearances or even consecutive championships.
Projected Lineup: Alcides Escobar-SS, Alex Gordon-LF, Lorenzo Cain-CF, Eric Hosmer-1B, Kendrys Morales-DH, Mike Moustakas-3B, Salvador Perez-C, Omar Infante-2B, Jarrod Dyson-RF
Projected Rotation: Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Ian Kennedy, Chris Young, Kris Medlen
Closer: Wade Davis
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Cleveland Indians: A lot of people have high expectations for the Indians this season. And I can see why. There's a lot of talent in Cleveland. I just have too many questions to say I realistically see them challenging the Tigers and Royals for the division title. Michael Brantley, Jason Kipns and Yan Gomes are stars. Francisco Lindor is going to be a superstar. But outside of that quartet (and, to a lesser extent, Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli), I'm not overly enamored with their lineup. I think scoring runs could be an issue. Which will put a lot of pressure on the pitching staff. After winning the Cy Young in 2014, Corey Kluber went just 9-16 last year. He needs to return to his Cy Young form for the Indians to have any shot at contending. The rest of the rotation is serviceable (they all won at least 10 games last season), but they need Kluber to go back to being a true No. 1. It's the bullpen that gives me the biggest concern, though. On a small-market team like the Indians, relief pitching is the area you're most likely not to spend big on, and that's certainly the case in Cleveland. Cody Allen is vanilla as far as closers go, and I can't tell you the name of any other guys in the Indians' bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Francisco Lindor-SS, Abraham Almonte-CF, Jason Kipnis-2B, Michael Brantley-LF, Mike Napoli-1B, Carlos Santana-DH, Yan Gomes-C, Juan Uribe-3B, Lonnie Chisenhall-RF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin
Closer: Cody Allen
Projected Record: 81-81
4. Chicago White Sox: Most of the news we've heard about the White Sox lately has involved Adam and Drake LaRoche. That derailed all talk of anything else on the South Side, where there have been so many changes it seems like the entire roster is new except for Jose Abreu and Chris Sale. Brett Lawrie came over from Oakland to play second. After losing his job in LA to Corey Seager, Jimmy Rollins signed with the White Sox and will play short. Austin Jackson finished last season with the Cubs and liked Chicago so much that he just changed which part of town the ballpark's in. Alex Avila wasn't even given an offer by his father in Detroit, so he bolted for the division rival White Sox. But the biggest addition is at the Hot Corner. The White Sox pulled off a major coup by snagging All-Star third baseman (and Home Run Derby champion) Todd Frazier in a trade with the Reds. With all these new faces in the lineup, it'll be interesting to see what their team chemistry will be like. (And, frankly, LaRoche's retirement doesn't really have much of an impact.) They've got a very strong pitching staff, too. Chris Sale is obviously the anchor, but the rotation is very solid 1-5. And they, of course, have a ridiculous closer in David Robertson. If things go as well as the White Sox believe they can, the Cubs won't be the only Chicago team people will be talking about this season. It won't take much for the White Sox to contend in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Jimmy Rollins-SS, Jose Abreu-1B, Todd Frazier-3B, Melky Cabrera-DH, Alex Avila-C, Avisail Garcia-RF, Adam Eaton-LF, Brett Lawrie-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Mat Latos, John Danks
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 79-83
5. Minnesota Twins: Last season, everything went right for the Twins and then some. They were the surprise wild card contender all the way until the bitter end and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor was a Manager of the Year finalist in his first year at the helm. Can the Twins do it again? Sure. But in a loaded AL Central, it'll take a lot. The long-awaited Byron Buxton debut took place in September, and now he'll get his first full Major League season. Putting him next to Miguel Sano, last year's rookie sensation, and Eddie Rosario gives Minnesota a young, talented outfield, one that was good enough for them to deem Aaron Hicks expendable, so he was traded to the Yankees for backup catcher John Ryan Murphy. The Twins' two best players are probably Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe, but Face of the Franchise Joe Mauer has significantly less value to this team as a first baseman. And he's turned into a downright average player. Beyond that, I'm concerned about the pitching. Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana are Nos. 1 and 2 in the rotation, but on another team, they'd probably more like a 3 or 4. Which is a shame. Because Glen Perkins is one of the most underrated closers in baseball. He's been solid for the last three or four years now. The Minnesota Twins overachieved in 2015 and still didn't make the playoffs. The rest of the AL Central is better this season, so they'll have to overachieve again, and then some, to contend in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Brian Dozier-2B, Joe Mauer-1B, Trevor Plouffe-3B, Miguel Sano-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, Byung Ho Park-DH, Kurt Suzuki-C, Eduardo Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone
Closer: Glen Perkins
Projected Record: 72-90
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
2016 Baseball Preview, Part 1
My Yankees season tickets arrived today. There was also that historic exhibition game between the Rays and the Cuban National Team in Havana. You know what all this means? Baseball's getting close! In fact, it's less than two weeks until Opening Day.
Since I'm already talking about the Yankees and Rays, I think it makes sense to start my annual six-part baseball preview in the AL East. This division figures to be as competitive as usual this season. The Blue Jays are the defending division champs, and they show no signs of slowing down. Expect their trade deadline acquisition, David Price, left as a free agent, but stayed in the division with Boston. The Red Sox have been a last-place disappointment in each of the last two seasons, but they think bringing in Price to bolster the starting rotation will bring them back to the top. Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying the opposite approach. They're trying to win games from the ninth inning forward instead of the other way around.
I think the division title will probably come down to those three, but it'll be very close. And it's not as if the Rays and Orioles are that far behind, either. Chris Archer's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and Tampa Bay's going to win a lot of games that he pitches. How many of those come against those top three could determine which two go to the playoffs and which one doesn't.
1. New York Yankees: Last season, nobody expected anything from the Yankees and their "mediocre" starting staff. All they did was make the playoffs. Sure, they struggled down the stretch and got shut out in the wild card game, but injuries and an overworked bullpen were the big reasons for that. The rotation wasn't great, but it wasn't a problem, either. This year, they've got six guys for five spots, so the rotation is theoretically deeper. But the strength of this team is the bullpen. After seeing the Royals win a pennant, then a World Series behind a dominant bullpen, the Yankees went out and made the best part of the team even better. Aroldis Chapman is suspended for the first 30 games, so he won't make his debut until May, which could actually be a good thing. Because the Yankees' relievers ran out of gas last September. As for the position players, yes a bunch of them are old and fragile. And, no, you can't absolutely expect A-Rod and Teixeira to have the same type of year they had in 2015. But they also made some great additions to get both younger and better at the same time. I love the addition of Starlin Castro, which solves the second base problem that has persisted since Robinson Cano left. Aaron Hicks will be tremendous, too. Personally, I'd trade Brett Gardner and Ivan Nova to both alleviate the starting pitching situation and give Hicks a place to play, but I think he'll get plenty of opportunities. The Greg Bird injury was a blow since they don't have a backup first baseman now, but between Ackley and Headley, they'll be OK to give Teixeira days off. He can't get hurt for an extended period of time again, though. If he does, then you flip one of the starting pitchers for a first baseman.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Brett Gardner-LF, Alex Rodriguez-DH, Mark Teixeira-1B, Carlos Beltran-RF, Brian McCann-C, Chase Headley-3B, Didi Gregorius-SS, Starlin Castro-2B
Projected Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia
Closer: Aroldis Chapman (Suspended), Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 89-73
2. Toronto Blue Jays: After years of everyone hyping them as the next big thing, the Toronto Blue Jays finally came through and won a division title last season. Toronto has always been able to outhit you, and last season they got the pitching to back it up. When they got David Price, they knew it was a rental, but it was one that worked out nicely. And this season, they'll get a full year from Marcus Stroman (who still really bugs me with that single-digit number). They also upgraded the bullpen with the addition of former Nationals closer Drew Storen. The most important thing for the Blue Jays, though, is that the best lineup in baseball returns essentially in tact. The only change is in left field, where midseason addition Ben Revere is gone. However, they had the built-in replacement in Michael Saunders, who was expected to be their center fielder last season, but missed the entire year due to injury. When they got him last year, I though Saunders was a great fit with this team, and I still do. And with Kevin Pillar fully ingrained as the starting center fielder, moving Saunders to left was the only logical solution. And he gives them another ridiculous power bat. Expect the homers to fly out of SkyDome once again. Will the pitching be able to keep pace and lead the Blue Jays back to the playoffs?
Projected Lineup: Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Josh Donaldson-3B, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Chris Colabello-1B, Russell Martin-C, Michael Saunders-LF, Kevin Pillar-CF, Ryan Goins-2B
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez
Closer: Drew Storen
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Boston Red Sox: In 2015, the Red Sox made a big splash by acquiring Pablo Sandoval to play third base and Hanley Ramirez to play left field. That went about as well as most people expected. Hanley had no interest in playing left field and was incredibly bad at it, resulting in his relegation to "injured" by the end of the season. This season, they'll try Hanley at first base. Personally, I think the best solution would be to put Hanley at third and Panda at first, but we'll see how this works out. They'll only need to figure it out for one year, anyway, since David Oritz has already announced he's retiring after the season. Boston's overreliance on high-priced veterans has created a bit of a problem, though. It's blocked their talented young players from cracking into the lineup. Brock Holt, for example, can play anywhere and made the All-Star team last year. He's stuck being Ben Zobrist, though, since they don't have a place to play him (because they already have another starter everywhere he plays). Their biggest problem last season, though, wasn't the lineup. It was the rotation. They expected to get Jon Lester back, but didn't, leaving a big hole they were never able to fill. So they overspent for David Price, which didn't surprise anyone. They needed a big-name starter and Price certainly fits the bill. He also knows the division, having pitched in Tampa Bay and Toronto. The addition of Price will instantly make the Red Sox pitching staff better. The bullpen will be better, too, with former Braves All-Star Craig Kimbrel taking over as the closer.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, David Ortiz-DH, Hanley Ramirez-1B, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Rusney Castillo-LF, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Blake Swihart-C, Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: David Price, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 86-76
4. Tampa Bay Rays: What's the slight difference that gives Tampa Bay the edge over Baltimore in my book? The pitching staff. Chris Archer is a legitimate ace, and they've got some solid arms behind him, especially Matt Moore and Jake Odorizzi. Their bullpen will be in rough shape until closer Brad Boxberger comes off the DL in June, but the Rays team I watched beat Cuba today will hold their own with anybody. They'll need to hit, though. And Tampa Bay certainly looks like they'll be better than last year in that regard. Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison will add significantly more pop to a lineup that's already anchored by Evan Longoria and James Loney. They also have arguably the best center fielder in the game in Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays' defense will do a good job of preventing runs, provided the pitchers don't give up too many, and the offense is able to provide some. They're nowhere near as good as the team Joe Maddon took to the World Series eight years ago. I highly doubt they're good enough to make the playoffs, too. But they're not going to be bad. In fact, I think it'll be the Tampa Bay Rays that determine who wins the AL East. It won't be them, though.
Projected Lineup: Brad Miller-SS, Steven Souza Jr.-RF, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, Corey Dickerson-LF, Logan Morrison-DH, Logan Forsythe-2B, Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Rene Rivera-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, Erasmo Ramirez
Closer: Brad Boxberger (DL), Alex Colome
Projected Record: 75-87
5. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have two bona fide superstars in Manny Machado and Adam Jones, as well as a very good catcher in Matt Wieters. And Chris Davis re-signing definitely bolstered the lineup. That would've been an incredibly deep hole to fill. Pedro Alvarez to DH and Mark Trumbo to play right seem like odds fits, especially since Trumbo's best position is DH, a position it'll be virtually impossible for him to play with Alvarez and Davis both there (and you can't really have Alvarez play third, seeing as Machado's entrenched over there). As a result, right field is the only place to put him. Fortunately, Adam Jones covers a lot of ground defensively. My real concern with Baltimore is the pitching staff, though. They haven't had a marquee starter in quite some time, yet managed to get away with it during that run to a division title two years ago. Yovani Gallardo, who they picked up from Texas in the offseason, is the closest thing they have to one. Gallardo replaced Wei-Yin Chen in the rotation, which made it a little bit stronger, but it's really more of a wash. Should Dylan Bundy arrive this season and prove to be everything people expect he will, my opinion of the Orioles' rotation will change, but it's because of that rotation that I give Tampa Bay the slight edge over Baltimore. The bullpen should be fine. Zach Britton, Darren O'Day and T.J. McFarland are all back.
Projected Lineup: J.J. Hardy-SS, Manny Machado-3B, Chris Davis-1B, Adam Jones-CF, Mark Trumbo-RF, Pedro Alvarez-DH, Matt Wieters-C, Nolan Reimold-LF, Jonathan Schoop-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Tillman, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Michael Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman
Closer: Zach Britton
Projected Record: 74-88
With the Yankees and Blue Jays arguably just as strong on paper as last season's playoff teams and expected improvement in Boston, the AL East should be up for grabs. One key injury or one big trade deadline addition could be the difference between last place and winning the division. You could easily take my projected standings and flip them upside down and end up being right. The five teams are thisclose.
Since I'm already talking about the Yankees and Rays, I think it makes sense to start my annual six-part baseball preview in the AL East. This division figures to be as competitive as usual this season. The Blue Jays are the defending division champs, and they show no signs of slowing down. Expect their trade deadline acquisition, David Price, left as a free agent, but stayed in the division with Boston. The Red Sox have been a last-place disappointment in each of the last two seasons, but they think bringing in Price to bolster the starting rotation will bring them back to the top. Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying the opposite approach. They're trying to win games from the ninth inning forward instead of the other way around.
I think the division title will probably come down to those three, but it'll be very close. And it's not as if the Rays and Orioles are that far behind, either. Chris Archer's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and Tampa Bay's going to win a lot of games that he pitches. How many of those come against those top three could determine which two go to the playoffs and which one doesn't.
1. New York Yankees: Last season, nobody expected anything from the Yankees and their "mediocre" starting staff. All they did was make the playoffs. Sure, they struggled down the stretch and got shut out in the wild card game, but injuries and an overworked bullpen were the big reasons for that. The rotation wasn't great, but it wasn't a problem, either. This year, they've got six guys for five spots, so the rotation is theoretically deeper. But the strength of this team is the bullpen. After seeing the Royals win a pennant, then a World Series behind a dominant bullpen, the Yankees went out and made the best part of the team even better. Aroldis Chapman is suspended for the first 30 games, so he won't make his debut until May, which could actually be a good thing. Because the Yankees' relievers ran out of gas last September. As for the position players, yes a bunch of them are old and fragile. And, no, you can't absolutely expect A-Rod and Teixeira to have the same type of year they had in 2015. But they also made some great additions to get both younger and better at the same time. I love the addition of Starlin Castro, which solves the second base problem that has persisted since Robinson Cano left. Aaron Hicks will be tremendous, too. Personally, I'd trade Brett Gardner and Ivan Nova to both alleviate the starting pitching situation and give Hicks a place to play, but I think he'll get plenty of opportunities. The Greg Bird injury was a blow since they don't have a backup first baseman now, but between Ackley and Headley, they'll be OK to give Teixeira days off. He can't get hurt for an extended period of time again, though. If he does, then you flip one of the starting pitchers for a first baseman.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Brett Gardner-LF, Alex Rodriguez-DH, Mark Teixeira-1B, Carlos Beltran-RF, Brian McCann-C, Chase Headley-3B, Didi Gregorius-SS, Starlin Castro-2B
Projected Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia
Closer: Aroldis Chapman (Suspended), Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 89-73
2. Toronto Blue Jays: After years of everyone hyping them as the next big thing, the Toronto Blue Jays finally came through and won a division title last season. Toronto has always been able to outhit you, and last season they got the pitching to back it up. When they got David Price, they knew it was a rental, but it was one that worked out nicely. And this season, they'll get a full year from Marcus Stroman (who still really bugs me with that single-digit number). They also upgraded the bullpen with the addition of former Nationals closer Drew Storen. The most important thing for the Blue Jays, though, is that the best lineup in baseball returns essentially in tact. The only change is in left field, where midseason addition Ben Revere is gone. However, they had the built-in replacement in Michael Saunders, who was expected to be their center fielder last season, but missed the entire year due to injury. When they got him last year, I though Saunders was a great fit with this team, and I still do. And with Kevin Pillar fully ingrained as the starting center fielder, moving Saunders to left was the only logical solution. And he gives them another ridiculous power bat. Expect the homers to fly out of SkyDome once again. Will the pitching be able to keep pace and lead the Blue Jays back to the playoffs?
Projected Lineup: Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Josh Donaldson-3B, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Chris Colabello-1B, Russell Martin-C, Michael Saunders-LF, Kevin Pillar-CF, Ryan Goins-2B
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez
Closer: Drew Storen
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Boston Red Sox: In 2015, the Red Sox made a big splash by acquiring Pablo Sandoval to play third base and Hanley Ramirez to play left field. That went about as well as most people expected. Hanley had no interest in playing left field and was incredibly bad at it, resulting in his relegation to "injured" by the end of the season. This season, they'll try Hanley at first base. Personally, I think the best solution would be to put Hanley at third and Panda at first, but we'll see how this works out. They'll only need to figure it out for one year, anyway, since David Oritz has already announced he's retiring after the season. Boston's overreliance on high-priced veterans has created a bit of a problem, though. It's blocked their talented young players from cracking into the lineup. Brock Holt, for example, can play anywhere and made the All-Star team last year. He's stuck being Ben Zobrist, though, since they don't have a place to play him (because they already have another starter everywhere he plays). Their biggest problem last season, though, wasn't the lineup. It was the rotation. They expected to get Jon Lester back, but didn't, leaving a big hole they were never able to fill. So they overspent for David Price, which didn't surprise anyone. They needed a big-name starter and Price certainly fits the bill. He also knows the division, having pitched in Tampa Bay and Toronto. The addition of Price will instantly make the Red Sox pitching staff better. The bullpen will be better, too, with former Braves All-Star Craig Kimbrel taking over as the closer.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, David Ortiz-DH, Hanley Ramirez-1B, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Rusney Castillo-LF, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Blake Swihart-C, Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: David Price, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 86-76
4. Tampa Bay Rays: What's the slight difference that gives Tampa Bay the edge over Baltimore in my book? The pitching staff. Chris Archer is a legitimate ace, and they've got some solid arms behind him, especially Matt Moore and Jake Odorizzi. Their bullpen will be in rough shape until closer Brad Boxberger comes off the DL in June, but the Rays team I watched beat Cuba today will hold their own with anybody. They'll need to hit, though. And Tampa Bay certainly looks like they'll be better than last year in that regard. Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison will add significantly more pop to a lineup that's already anchored by Evan Longoria and James Loney. They also have arguably the best center fielder in the game in Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays' defense will do a good job of preventing runs, provided the pitchers don't give up too many, and the offense is able to provide some. They're nowhere near as good as the team Joe Maddon took to the World Series eight years ago. I highly doubt they're good enough to make the playoffs, too. But they're not going to be bad. In fact, I think it'll be the Tampa Bay Rays that determine who wins the AL East. It won't be them, though.
Projected Lineup: Brad Miller-SS, Steven Souza Jr.-RF, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, Corey Dickerson-LF, Logan Morrison-DH, Logan Forsythe-2B, Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Rene Rivera-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, Erasmo Ramirez
Closer: Brad Boxberger (DL), Alex Colome
Projected Record: 75-87
5. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have two bona fide superstars in Manny Machado and Adam Jones, as well as a very good catcher in Matt Wieters. And Chris Davis re-signing definitely bolstered the lineup. That would've been an incredibly deep hole to fill. Pedro Alvarez to DH and Mark Trumbo to play right seem like odds fits, especially since Trumbo's best position is DH, a position it'll be virtually impossible for him to play with Alvarez and Davis both there (and you can't really have Alvarez play third, seeing as Machado's entrenched over there). As a result, right field is the only place to put him. Fortunately, Adam Jones covers a lot of ground defensively. My real concern with Baltimore is the pitching staff, though. They haven't had a marquee starter in quite some time, yet managed to get away with it during that run to a division title two years ago. Yovani Gallardo, who they picked up from Texas in the offseason, is the closest thing they have to one. Gallardo replaced Wei-Yin Chen in the rotation, which made it a little bit stronger, but it's really more of a wash. Should Dylan Bundy arrive this season and prove to be everything people expect he will, my opinion of the Orioles' rotation will change, but it's because of that rotation that I give Tampa Bay the slight edge over Baltimore. The bullpen should be fine. Zach Britton, Darren O'Day and T.J. McFarland are all back.
Projected Lineup: J.J. Hardy-SS, Manny Machado-3B, Chris Davis-1B, Adam Jones-CF, Mark Trumbo-RF, Pedro Alvarez-DH, Matt Wieters-C, Nolan Reimold-LF, Jonathan Schoop-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Tillman, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Michael Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman
Closer: Zach Britton
Projected Record: 74-88
With the Yankees and Blue Jays arguably just as strong on paper as last season's playoff teams and expected improvement in Boston, the AL East should be up for grabs. One key injury or one big trade deadline addition could be the difference between last place and winning the division. You could easily take my projected standings and flip them upside down and end up being right. The five teams are thisclose.
Monday, March 21, 2016
Family First
It sure took a lot of courage for Adam LaRoche to do what he did. Whether or not you agree with his decision, it certainly says a lot that he was willing to give up $15 million in salary with his abrupt retirement. All of which stemmed from a philosophical difference he had with White Sox Vice President Ken Williams regarding his son.
Of course, when LaRoche announced he was retiring, no one knew the backstory. It only came out after the fact. Apparently Williams told LaRoche that his son, who was at Spring Training everyday, shouldn't be in the clubhouse so much. In fact, he asked him to significantly dial it back. This didn't sit well with LaRoche, who said that one of the reasons he signed with the White Sox in the first place was because he was given assurances that his son would be welcome. And the problem was exacerbated because, evidently, it was only Williams that had a problem with Drake LaRoche being there. No other players or coaches said anything. Williams took it upon himself to say something to Adam LaRoche, who took exception to the way he handled the situation.
Predictably, the other White Sox players had Adam LaRoche's back. They all said how much they liked Drake and how he never got in their way or they felt uncomfortable having him around. Chris Sale was one of the most vocal critics of the whole thing, saying that Williams flat-out lied about the situation and contradicted himself with the different versions of his story.
Mainly, the general feeling I got was that LaRoche and the other players thought that if there was a problem, the person who should've had the conversation was manager Robin Ventura. At the very least, the message should've been consistent. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf has acknowledged that mistakes were made throughout the entire ordeal, saying it was the result of a miscommunication and a misunderstanding. Reinsdorf has said the issue is closed, but it might not be. The players' union is considering filing a grievance on LaRoche's behalf.
This is definitely a unique situation. I've never heard of something like this being a reason to retire. The White Sox have left the door open in case he changes his mind, but Adam LaRoche seems to be pretty content with his decision (he indicated he was probably going to retire after this season anyway). He filed his retirement paperwork. He wouldn't have done that if he wasn't serious. I don't think there's any "working it out" that can be done here.
Ken Williams has been getting it pretty hard from all angles on this one, and I think even he'd admit that he probably should've handled it better. But he was well within his rights as a member of management to enforce organizational policy. The problem is it's still not clear what that policy is.
For years, Major League teams have allowed players to bring their sons into the clubhouse. Different teams have different rules, but baseball always has been about family. Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey, Jr., grew up around Major League clubhouses. So did Prince Fielder and so many other Major League stars. So did Adam LaRoche, whose father, Dave, pitched in the Majors, and brother, Andy, also plays. It's growing up in the game that fosters that passion and passes baseball on from generation to generation.
Every team has its own policy, but there isn't a team in the Majors that doesn't let its players bring their families into the clubhouse. Some only allow it after wins. Some do it only on certain days. Still others let the kids on the field and in the clubhouse up until game time, but they're gone by the time batting practice starts. The moral of the story, though, is that all 30 Major League clubs welcome their players' children with open arms. And I'd assume that also includes the Chicago White Sox.
While defending his position, Ken Williams did make one valid point. A Major League clubhouse is a workplace, and there isn't a workplace in America that lets their employees bring their kids to the office everyday. But, he forgot another important point when making that argument: A Major League clubhouse isn't like any other workplace in America. These guys are away from their families so much that before and after games in the clubhouse might be the only time the get to spend with their kids.
I don't know what the answer is here, and I'll never be in this position myself. But you have to think the Adam LaRoche saga didn't have to come to this. Ken Williams was wrong with the way he handled it. You also have to think that there had to be some middle ground here, if the two sides were just willing to find it.
You have to give Adam LaRoche a lot of credit, though. His family was more important to him than being a Major League baseball player. I'm sure he didn't want his retirement to become the story it did, but there's something to be said about putting your family first. Of course, we've seen it before. Daniel Murphy missed Opening Day last year to be at his son's birth, and it's written into the CBA that teams are required to give players paternity and bereavement leave.
Only Adam LaRoche can say whether or not he made the right decision. But it was clearly the right one for him. And it was one he had no hesitation making. And, whether you agree with him or not, you've gotta respect that.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Down to 64, Now It's Time For Picks
Now that the First Four is over (someone please let FDU and Vanderbilt know that the First Four started) and we no longer have to pretend Tulsa belonged in the tournament, we're ready to start the tournament proper. The greatest two days in sports are ahead of us. Thursday and Friday of the first week of the NCAA Tournament.
And now that we've got that convenient 64-team bracket without that annoying "vs. winner of..." that the First Four gives us, I can actually take a look at the whole thing and make some picks. Sports Illustrated is going with Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State, and I can't say I disagree with that. Kansas, North Carolina and Michigan State are the three best teams in the tournament, and in a West region that looks like it could be full of upsets, I like Oklahoma and Buddy Hield to come out of it.
It'll be much easier to break this down region by region, so let's start in the South where No. 1 overall seed Kansas resides. They didn't make things easy for the Jayhawks, either. But they're the most talented team in this region, which I think will be the difference. There are probably a lot of people picking UConn in the second round (the Final Four IS in Texas, and it does seem to be a rule that UConn wins the national title when the Final Four is in Texas). I also think they'll get a challenge from Cal in the Sweet 16 (after Cal beats South Dakota State, which will give us our 5-12 upset against Maryland). As for the bottom half of that region, I've got no idea. Villanova always chokes i the Tournament. In fact, I can see them losing to Iowa. Miami's not that good, either. Frankly, I can see the Arizona-Wichita State winner making it all the way to the Elite Eight.
Kansas's Final Four opponent will come out of the West, where Oregon is the top seed, yet no one seems to be picking the Ducks. In fact, there are a lot of people who have Oregon losing to Baylor in a Sweet 16 game that will test the contrast on your TV as much as that Michigan-Syracuse Final Four game a couple years ago did. Problem is, I'm not sure Baylor gets there. Getting past Yale and Duke is a very difficult proposition. If the Bears do make it to Anaheim, I agree they'd be a tough matchup for Oregon. But I'm going with Duke. Baylor reaching the Sweet 16 would also make it a Big 12 party in Anaheim. Oklahoma should be there, and Texas A&M is still an honorary Big 12 member (as much as I would love to see Texas beat them, it's not happening; neither is the Texas vs. VCU Shaka Smart Bowl). I just think Oklahoma's the most talented team in this region, and the matchups are incredibly favorable for a Sooners trip to Houston.
North Carolina is heavily favored in a loaded East. The Tar Heels' biggest challenge might come from Kentucky, which looks like the Kentucky team we normally expect to see for really the first time this season. Remember, two years ago, nobody was talking about Kentucky, and they ended up in the Championship Game as an 8-seed. Then last year they went into the Final Four undefeated and lost to Wisconsin. I don't really know if it's possible for Kentucky to be a "sleeper" Final Four pick, but there's a good number of people that wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats in Houston. If North Carolina plays the way they did in the ACC Tournament, though, they ain't losing to any of these teams. Especially if they play Notre Dame again in the Elite 8, which the bracket indicates just might happen.
I want very badly for the top two seeds in the Midwest to reach the Regional Final. Because Michigan State should've been the 1-seed over Virginia, and they're going to prove it by knocking the Cavaliers out of the Tournament for the third consecutive year. Iowa State appears to be the team most capable of preventing that matchup, but they've first got to worry about Iona in a game that could be as high-scoring as the NBA All-Star Game. I'm not sleeping on Utah, either. That's the second-best team out of a very strong Pac-12. Michigan State's the best team in this region, though.
So, I agree with Sports Illustrated. My Final Four is Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State. Kansas and Oklahoma played a phenomenal double-overtime game in Lawrence when Oklahoma was ranked No. 1, and I think a Final Four meeting between the rivals would be very similar. Buddy Hield will be the best player on the floor, but Kansas will be the best team on the floor, which will be the difference. North Carolina-Michigan State is much more of a toss-up. I'd love to see this matchup, if just to see Roy Williams and Tom Izzo try to out-coach each other. If North Carolina's playing well, they're the better team. But they almost have to be perfect, and Michigan State is very good at making teams play their game. I don't think North Carolina would be an exception, so I give the slight edge to Sparty.
That gives me a National Championship Game between Kansas and Michigan State. But, like I've been saying all along, I think Kansas is the best team in the nation. They won't make the same mistakes against Michigan State that North Carolina will. It'll be Rock Chalk Championship.
Meanwhile, in the UConn Invitational, it'll take an upset of epic proportions to end Breanna Stewart's career with anything other than a fourth straight National Championship. I'm talking a "biggest upset in NCAA history" type of upset. And should UConn do it, it would put a bow on perhaps the single greatest college career any player's ever had.
As hard to believe as it may be, there are 63 other teams in the women's tournament. It would be easy to go straight chalk, especially seeing as UConn, South Carolina, Notre Dame and Baylor have separated themselves so far from everybody else this season. Except I don't think you should be writing that Women's Final Four in ink just yet. UConn and South Carolina are safe bets, but I'm not so sure about the other two.
Notre Dame has lost the National Championship Game in four of the last five years. That's their thing. But in the Elite 8, they'll have to face either a Maryland team that was in the Final Four last season or a talented Kentucky squad that'll be playing at home. Kentucky has been to the Elite 8 so many times in recent years, but always against UConn. Knowing that this is their chance to finally not have to deal with the Huskies will make Kentucky very dangerous. Especially in their home arena (even if they don't play at Rupp all the time, they still won't have to travel). I still like Maryland to beat them, but Kentucky won't go down quietly. And, for some reason, I think Maryland will beat Notre Dame, too.
Baylor will be at an advantage playing in Dallas, so I think they will go through, but don't sleep on Texas A&M or Oregon State. Or Louisville for that matter. Any one of those four teams is capable of winning two games once they all get together in Dallas. In fact, I'm going to call the upset and say Texas A&M beats Baylor in the Sweet 16, which gets Oregon State to the first Final Four in program history.
Like I said, don't just go with the chalk. My Women's Final Four is UConn, Oregon State, South Carolina and Maryland. I'm really high on Maryland. I'll say that after they beat Notre Dame, they go and beat South Carolina, too. But no one's stopping UConn.
A fourth straight National Championship, a fourth straight Final Four MVP, another undefeated season (one loss in three years). If Breanna Stewart isn't the greatest player in college basketball history, she's definitely on the short list. This tournament will be a coronation. If it's not, that'll be an even bigger story.
And now that we've got that convenient 64-team bracket without that annoying "vs. winner of..." that the First Four gives us, I can actually take a look at the whole thing and make some picks. Sports Illustrated is going with Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State, and I can't say I disagree with that. Kansas, North Carolina and Michigan State are the three best teams in the tournament, and in a West region that looks like it could be full of upsets, I like Oklahoma and Buddy Hield to come out of it.
It'll be much easier to break this down region by region, so let's start in the South where No. 1 overall seed Kansas resides. They didn't make things easy for the Jayhawks, either. But they're the most talented team in this region, which I think will be the difference. There are probably a lot of people picking UConn in the second round (the Final Four IS in Texas, and it does seem to be a rule that UConn wins the national title when the Final Four is in Texas). I also think they'll get a challenge from Cal in the Sweet 16 (after Cal beats South Dakota State, which will give us our 5-12 upset against Maryland). As for the bottom half of that region, I've got no idea. Villanova always chokes i the Tournament. In fact, I can see them losing to Iowa. Miami's not that good, either. Frankly, I can see the Arizona-Wichita State winner making it all the way to the Elite Eight.
Kansas's Final Four opponent will come out of the West, where Oregon is the top seed, yet no one seems to be picking the Ducks. In fact, there are a lot of people who have Oregon losing to Baylor in a Sweet 16 game that will test the contrast on your TV as much as that Michigan-Syracuse Final Four game a couple years ago did. Problem is, I'm not sure Baylor gets there. Getting past Yale and Duke is a very difficult proposition. If the Bears do make it to Anaheim, I agree they'd be a tough matchup for Oregon. But I'm going with Duke. Baylor reaching the Sweet 16 would also make it a Big 12 party in Anaheim. Oklahoma should be there, and Texas A&M is still an honorary Big 12 member (as much as I would love to see Texas beat them, it's not happening; neither is the Texas vs. VCU Shaka Smart Bowl). I just think Oklahoma's the most talented team in this region, and the matchups are incredibly favorable for a Sooners trip to Houston.
North Carolina is heavily favored in a loaded East. The Tar Heels' biggest challenge might come from Kentucky, which looks like the Kentucky team we normally expect to see for really the first time this season. Remember, two years ago, nobody was talking about Kentucky, and they ended up in the Championship Game as an 8-seed. Then last year they went into the Final Four undefeated and lost to Wisconsin. I don't really know if it's possible for Kentucky to be a "sleeper" Final Four pick, but there's a good number of people that wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats in Houston. If North Carolina plays the way they did in the ACC Tournament, though, they ain't losing to any of these teams. Especially if they play Notre Dame again in the Elite 8, which the bracket indicates just might happen.
I want very badly for the top two seeds in the Midwest to reach the Regional Final. Because Michigan State should've been the 1-seed over Virginia, and they're going to prove it by knocking the Cavaliers out of the Tournament for the third consecutive year. Iowa State appears to be the team most capable of preventing that matchup, but they've first got to worry about Iona in a game that could be as high-scoring as the NBA All-Star Game. I'm not sleeping on Utah, either. That's the second-best team out of a very strong Pac-12. Michigan State's the best team in this region, though.
So, I agree with Sports Illustrated. My Final Four is Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State. Kansas and Oklahoma played a phenomenal double-overtime game in Lawrence when Oklahoma was ranked No. 1, and I think a Final Four meeting between the rivals would be very similar. Buddy Hield will be the best player on the floor, but Kansas will be the best team on the floor, which will be the difference. North Carolina-Michigan State is much more of a toss-up. I'd love to see this matchup, if just to see Roy Williams and Tom Izzo try to out-coach each other. If North Carolina's playing well, they're the better team. But they almost have to be perfect, and Michigan State is very good at making teams play their game. I don't think North Carolina would be an exception, so I give the slight edge to Sparty.
That gives me a National Championship Game between Kansas and Michigan State. But, like I've been saying all along, I think Kansas is the best team in the nation. They won't make the same mistakes against Michigan State that North Carolina will. It'll be Rock Chalk Championship.
Meanwhile, in the UConn Invitational, it'll take an upset of epic proportions to end Breanna Stewart's career with anything other than a fourth straight National Championship. I'm talking a "biggest upset in NCAA history" type of upset. And should UConn do it, it would put a bow on perhaps the single greatest college career any player's ever had.
As hard to believe as it may be, there are 63 other teams in the women's tournament. It would be easy to go straight chalk, especially seeing as UConn, South Carolina, Notre Dame and Baylor have separated themselves so far from everybody else this season. Except I don't think you should be writing that Women's Final Four in ink just yet. UConn and South Carolina are safe bets, but I'm not so sure about the other two.
Notre Dame has lost the National Championship Game in four of the last five years. That's their thing. But in the Elite 8, they'll have to face either a Maryland team that was in the Final Four last season or a talented Kentucky squad that'll be playing at home. Kentucky has been to the Elite 8 so many times in recent years, but always against UConn. Knowing that this is their chance to finally not have to deal with the Huskies will make Kentucky very dangerous. Especially in their home arena (even if they don't play at Rupp all the time, they still won't have to travel). I still like Maryland to beat them, but Kentucky won't go down quietly. And, for some reason, I think Maryland will beat Notre Dame, too.
Baylor will be at an advantage playing in Dallas, so I think they will go through, but don't sleep on Texas A&M or Oregon State. Or Louisville for that matter. Any one of those four teams is capable of winning two games once they all get together in Dallas. In fact, I'm going to call the upset and say Texas A&M beats Baylor in the Sweet 16, which gets Oregon State to the first Final Four in program history.
Like I said, don't just go with the chalk. My Women's Final Four is UConn, Oregon State, South Carolina and Maryland. I'm really high on Maryland. I'll say that after they beat Notre Dame, they go and beat South Carolina, too. But no one's stopping UConn.
A fourth straight National Championship, a fourth straight Final Four MVP, another undefeated season (one loss in three years). If Breanna Stewart isn't the greatest player in college basketball history, she's definitely on the short list. This tournament will be a coronation. If it's not, that'll be an even bigger story.
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