Saturday, February 15, 2014

Another Farewell Tour

Between the Olympics and being on the road, I haven't been able to keep up with my blogging lately.  And this was a bad week for that to happen.  Because there was a lot of stuff that happened this week that's worth talking about.  So, that also means I'm going to break one of my general blogging rules and blog about something non-Olympic during the Olympics.

So, which non-Olympic topic is it I'm going to talk about?  The Jonathan Martin report?  Michael Sam?  Nope and nope.  There's one subject that I haven't addressed yet that needs to be discussed before any of those others.  I'm, of course, talking about Derek Jeter's announcement of his pending retirement at the end of the season.

I can't say I'm entirely surprised about his decision.  Jeter has always said that he'd hang it up when baseball became a job.  And baseball has certainly become a job.  He's going to turn 40 during the season and barely played last year after a myriad of injuries suffered while trying to rehab from the broken ankle he suffered in the 2012 ALCS.  Everyone, including Derek Jeter, knows that he's not going to be able to play shortstop everyday anymore.  But everyone also knew that he wasn't going out like that.  Like Mariano Rivera, he was going to go out the right way and on his own terms.

You also knew Derek Jeter was never going to wear another uniform, so when he signed a one-year deal and got a $3 million raise, you kind of had a feeling that the writing was on the wall.  Honestly, I'm not surprised.  Derek Jeter was going to be the Yankees' shortstop as long as he wanted to be.  But everyone, including Jeter, knew that window was closing.  Especially after last year when he couldn't even stay on the field.  So Derek decided to do what was best for the team.  He's going to let them move on with someone younger.  It's what a good captain does.

There's no way to express what he's meant to the franchise.  Everyone knows that.  Jeter has earned his place in the Yankees pantheon.  You could even make a compelling argument that he should be included on the Yankees' Mount Rushmore (although, you'd probably have to add a fifth place alongside Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio and Mantle).  Throughout his career, Derek Jeter knew what it meant to be a New York Yankee and the responsibility he carried as team captain.  He embraced that role, and us fans embraced him in return. 

Derek Jeter has earned everything he's achieved over the past 20 years.  Sure his best days are behind him, but does anyone care?  There was just something missing with the Yankees for most of last season.  Jeter simply being there is a calming presence.  Regardless of how well he was playing or if he even was able to play.  He inherited the torch from Don Mattingly and carried it proudly for 20 years.  Now it's time for Derek to pass it on.

By announcing his retirement now, Derek eliminated the "Will he or won't he?" speculation that you know would've followed him all season long.  It's also clear that he's at peace with this decision.  He was there for Mariano Rivera's Farewell Tour last season.  Now he'll have one of his own.  If there's any two players in baseball who deserve one, it's Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter.  Likewise, if there are any two players in baseball who deserve to go out on their own terms, it's Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter.

He's the last link to that Yankees dynasty.  The last of the "Core Four" to retire.  We might never see another one like Derek Jeter.  If we're going to, we haven't seen him yet.  He's not just the face of the Yankees.  He's the face of baseball.  A guy who played the game with class and grace while playing his entire career with one of the game's marquee franchises.  Much like Rivera, you don't have to like him, but it's very difficult not to respect him.

When I was at Yankee Stadium for the hockey game, Monument Park was open.  We went down and I noticed something very interesting.  Mariano Rivera's No. 42 had taken up the last available spot on the wall.  But there's now a spot to Rivera's right, and all the plaques were missing.  They obviously moved them all over to make room for Joe Torre's No. 6, which is going on the wall at some point this season.  Well, they're going to have to move them all again.  Because we all know what's happening with No. 2 at the end of the season.

It's almost hard to picture the Yankees without Derek Jeter, but at least we get one more season to enjoy watching him.  And knowing Derek Jeter, he's going to have a monster season.  He's always shined when the lights were the brightest.  Like the walk-off homer in the 2001 World Series.  Or the homer for his 3,000th hit.  Or the speech when they closed the Old Stadium.  You know Derek Jeter's got one last special memory in store for us.  And you know there ain't gonna be a dry eye in the house on September 25. 

He was the one that told Mariano, "It's time to go," when he and Andy Pettitte took Rivera out of the game for the last time.  Now it's Derek's time to go.  And we're going to miss him just as much, if not more.

Book your hotel rooms in Cooperstown now.  Because that place is going to be overrun by Yankees fans in back-to-back summers of 2019 and 2020.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Men's Hockey Tournament

We're almost a week into the Sochi Olympics, but for many, the Olympics don't really start until Wednesday.  That's because that's when the men's hockey tournament starts.  The NHL break started on Sunday, and for the first time, each of the 12 national teams includes at least one current NHL player on the roster.  Although, despite that, I think we can all agree that Slovenia, Norway, Austria and Latvia have absolutely no chance.  As for the rest of the field?  That's anybody's guess.  That's why these Olympic tournaments with NHL players are so exciting.

The Russians, of course, are expecting gold.  They haven't won since the breakup of the Soviet Union, and were embarrassed, 7-3, in the quarterfinals in Vancouver.  Much like in 2010, the gold in men's hockey means more to the host country than any other.  The Canadians delivered in Vancouver.  And I think Russia has a very good chance of doing the same in Sochi.

Russia is the No. 1 seed and in Group A with Slovakia, Slovenia and the United States.  Slovakia finished a surprising fourth in 2010, and gave Canada all it could handle in the semifinals.  The Slovakian captain is Zdeno Chara of the Bruins, and they also have Blackhawks right wing Marian Hossa.  However, Marian Gaborik is injured, severely limiting their offensive attack.  Jaroslav Halak of the Blues is the Slovakian goalie, and they might need him to steal a game if they're going to advance to the quarterfinals.

Assuming Slovakia finishes third in the group and Slovenia finishes last, that means the highly-anticipated USA-Russia game will likely determine the group winner.  A lot of people are extremely high on this American team, especially after that silver medal in Vancouver.  A bulk of that team returns, including Sabres goalie Ryan Miller, the 2010 Olympic MVP.  The scary thing is Miller might not even be the best goalie on the team.  That might be the Kings' Jonathan Quick, the Conn Smythe Trophy winner two years ago.  Without question, the American goalie tandem is the best in the tournament. 

However, I'm not going overboard with my expectations.  We all remember Torino, don't we?  The last American medal in an Olympics outside North America was a silver in Sapporo, Japan in 1972.  The last American hockey medal in Europe?  1956!  They've got that history to contend with, as well as the Russians and plenty of strong teams in the other two groups.

Group B features the defending champion Canadians and my sleeper pick Finland, as well as Norway and Austria.  Canada and Finland won the group lottery.  They should easily finish 1-2 in this group, and whichever one finishes second will probably be the fourth team that gets a bye into the quarterfinals.  No need to breakdown what the Canadians are bringing to Sochi.  You could easily make a team of guys NOT representing Canada at the Olympics and it would probably contend for a medal.  My only question about the Canadians is in goal.  Roberto Luongo was the starter in Vancouver (where he played in his home rink) and is the presumed starter here.  But he's been incredibly shaky for the Canucks over the past couple seasons.  Carey Price of the Canadiens is likely the other option to start, seeing as the third goalie is another head case, the Penguins' Marc-Andre Fleury.

But like their North American brethren, Canada hasn't done the best at Olympics in Europe.  They've sandwiched golds in Salt Lake City and Vancouver around a seventh-place finish in Torino that included a loss to Switzerland.

That's why my pick in Group B is Finland.  Finland has won three medals in the four NHL Olympics, including a silver in Torino, where they were undefeated before a loss to Sweden in the gold medal game.  I really like this Finnish team, mainly because of the guys between the pipes.  I'm assuming Boston's Tuukka Rask will be the starter, but they've also got Antti Niemi of the Sharks and Kari Lehtonen of the Stars.  None would be a bad choice.  Finland's going to have to overcome some injuries to its forwards, but Ryan Miller almost single-handedly won a silver medal for the U.S. in Vancouver.  I wouldn't be surprised to see one of these Finnish goalies do the same thing.

Speaking of goaltending, Henrik Lundqvist makes Sweden the favorite in Group C.  And let's also keep in mind that Sweden was the gold medalist at each of the last two European Olympics (1994 Lillehammer, 2006 Torino).  With a loaded roster and arguably the best goalie in the tournament (who's already won them one Olympic gold medal), there's no reason not to think Sweden is perhaps the team best-equipped to challenge Russia for the gold.

Rounding out Group C are Switzerland, Latvia and the Czech Republic.  Latvia is coached by former Sabres and Islanders coach Ted Nolan and their most familiar name is Sandis Ozolinsh.  Except he's 41 years old and hasn't played in the NHL in years.  The only current NHLer on the Latvian roster is Sabres rookie Zemgus Girgensons.  At least they have Slovenia to keep them out of last place overall.

While the Czech Republic is the easy No. 2 pick in this group, I'm not sleeping on Switzerland.  No one's ever going to confuse the Swiss with the Top 7, but they won the silver at the World Championships last year and have been an annoying pest to at least one of the big-name teams at the last two Olympics.  In 2006, they beat Canada and finished second in their group.  Then they took the Canadians to overtime in 2010.  With Jonas Hiller of the Ducks in goal, I don't think it's out of the question to see Switzerland pull off the minor upset against the Czech Republic.

So who wins the gold?  Well, my call for the medals is Russia-Finland-Sweden.  Much like Canada was a team on a mission in Vancouver, you can say the same thing about the Russians this time.  As for the other two medals, I'd be very surprised if Sweden doesn't reach the semifinals.  And I just have a feeling about Finland.  They always play well at the Olympics.  As for the fourth semifinalist, it'll be one of the two North American teams, probably Canada.  The matchups, the big ice and the European crowds will all work against both the Americans and Canadians.  We're not getting another Canada-U.S. final.  I'd be surprised if they both medal.

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Olympic Opening Weekend

The vast differences between the Winter and Summer Olympics were on full display this weekend.  In the Summer Olympics, it's impossible to try and see everything.  There are simply too many events.  But with fewer sports to worry about, as well as a cable channel that has pretty much no other programming and can show stuff live all morning, NBC has done a pretty good job of showing fairly comprehensive coverage of the important stuff.  Which is good, since the current design of NBCOlympics.com is terrible.  In fact, I doubt I'll watch the live streaming (which I relied on pretty heavily in London) that much at all.

A lot of that coverage has been focused on the new figure skating team event.  It is, after all, the reason an extra day of primetime coverage was added this year.  For its part, NBC is televising every skater in every figure skating event live, in addition to its regular taped primetime coverage.  The analysts for the cable coverage are Johnny Weir and Tara Lipinski, who are actually really good.  But I digress...

I have to admit, I was skeptical about this team event at first, but I've come around.  It's actually pretty cool.  One of the things that they've mentioned throughout the coverage is that figure skating is an individual sport, so this is a unique opportunity for them.  Track and swimming are individual sports, too, but they've got relays.  Now figure skating has that team element, as well.  Seeing the skaters' reactions when their teammates finish their programs is really cool.  It also ends that "Who's the strongest skating nation?" debate.  (The extra chances to see Tessa Virtue and Gracie Gold weren't a bad thing, either.)

One of the reasons I was skeptical at first was because I didn't quite understand the scoring.  I thought it was going to be all of the scores for each separate event simply added up.  I like the way they actually do it better.  Score each event separately, then give 10 points to the winner, nine for second, and down the line.  The only change I might make would be in long program.  They cut the field from 10 to five after the short program, but scoring for the free skates are still 10-9-8-7-6.  That makes it really hard to close a gap.  Maybe separate the places by two points (10-8-6-4-2) in the free skate instead.

But figure skating hasn't been the only thing going on in Sochi.  The U.S. won both gold medals in the new snowboarding event.  And the guy who won, Sage Kotsenburg, lives up to basically every stereotype of snowboarders there is.  Meanwhile, defending champion Hannah Kearney won the bronze in women's moguls, then immediately gave us the "McKayla is not impressed" moment of the Sochi Games.

There have been plenty of non-American stories, too.  In fact, some of those have been better.  Because we've had Olympic history made not once, but twice.  Ole Einar Bjoerndahlen won the men's sprint in biathlon.  It was his 12th career Olympic medal, tying Bjoerndahlen with Bjorn Daehlie for the all-time Winter record.  And Bjoerndahlen's still got plenty more opportunities to break the record.  Bjoerndahlen is 40 years old.  Italy's Armin Zoeggler is 41.  He made some Olympic history of his own in men's luge.  Zoeggler won the bronze, becoming the first Olympian in any sport--Winter or Summer--to win a medal in SIX consecutive Olympics.  And lest we forget Yevgeny Plushenko, whose gold in team figure skating gives him medals in four straight Olympics, the record for a figure skater.

Some other international stars whose names may be somewhat vaguely familiar have also set themselves up for big Games.  Norway's Marit Bjoergen, who won five medals in Vancouver, took gold in the first women's cross country event.  Can she medal in all six this time?  When we last saw Sven Kramer, he was getting disqualified in Vancouver for changing lanes when he wasn't supposed to, costing him a gold in the 10,000 meters in speed skating.  Well, all he's done so far in Sochi is set an Olympic record while leading a Dutch sweep in the 5000.

And I'd be remiss not to mention some of the cooler moments of the Opening Ceremony.  Like Zdeno Chara carrying Slovakia's flag.  The Bruins let him miss their last two games before the Olympic break so that he could.  Or that girl who got hurt in warmups for moguls qualifying on Thursday "walking" out with her teammates on crutches with a wheelchair close behind.  Then there's that couple from Staten Island who are the first Winter Olympians ever from the country of Dominica.  They aren't from there, but were given citizenship because of the charity work they've done on the Caribbean island.

We've still got plenty of Olympics ahead of us, and there are bound to be a ton more stories coming out (not in that way, which is illegal in Russia) of these Sochi Games.  Hey, the Jamaican bobsled team is back after all.  And the men's hockey tournament doesn't even start until the middle of the week.  Sochi's been great so far.  I can't wait to see what the Russians have in store for us next.

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Sochi's Spectacular Start

They wanted to go big.  And they succeeded.  Sochi's Opening Ceremony hit all the right cords.  We took a journey through Russian history while also embracing the present, with some pretty cool technology mixed in.   Every Olympic Opening Ceremony is unique, and this one was no different.  And, most of all, it was very Russian.

That little girl in the beginning reminded me of the girl in Sydney.  And I, of course, had no idea what they were saying or why a lot of the stuff in that opening part were significant.  But when the little girl came back and we went through like 1000 years of Russian history into what NBC condensed into like 20 minutes, it was pretty impressive.  Russia's a country that's still a mystery to a lot of the Western world, and they did a beautiful job of highlighting that vast history.

And that thing on the roof...Wow!  The floating scenery was beyond impressive, and that I think is going to be the thing people remember the most about this night.  The Russians wanted to make an impression.  Mission accomplished.

My favorite piece of the Opening Ceremony was the Parade of Nations.  Not for the normal reason, though.  The map of each country on the stadium floor as the athletes walked out was so cool.  It was a unique idea.  And it worked to perfection.

I'm always interested to see what kind of reaction different countries are going to get when it's their turn to enter the stadium.  Many of the former Soviet republics were welcomed warmly, which doesn't overly surprise me.  Russian relations with Georgia and Lithuania aren't the best, but this is the one day you can put those differences aside.  It was disappointing, though, that the Lithuanian president chose not to attend the ceremony.  Unfortunately, you can't keep politics out of the Olympics, which Meredith Vieira was quick to point out when Israel and Iran came in one after the other (no matter what language, those two countries can't get away from each other).

Perhaps the most surprising reception was for the U.S.  I'm not surprised that the U.S. wasn't booed, but I didn't expect the response to be so warm.  After all, it's been the U.S. that's been leading the Western crusade against the anti-gay law.  But a team from the United States marching into the stadium during the Opening Ceremony of an Olympics in Russia was significant, and I bet that fact wasn't lost on anybody.  There was something missing from the Moscow Games in 1980, and we all know the reason why.  Russia's finally hosting the world.  The entire world.

Then there's the final leg of the torch relay, which was complicated by the fact that Sochi has an indoor stadium (a fact I didn't know until tonight and I'm still somewhat confused about).  They absolultely made it work, though.  Unlike four years, when they lit the cauldron inside the stadium, then Wayne Gretzky ran to that separate one in downtown Vancouver, or in London, where the cauldron went about 20 feet off the ground and could only be seen from inside the stadium, they did this one the right way.  Everyone inside the stadium and out can see the Olympic flame, which isn't far from the stadium.

As for the man who lit the torch, I think Vladislav Tretiak was the perfect choice.  When I wrote my one-year-to-go post and I predicted who the final torchbearer might be, Tretiak was one of my candidates, although I didn't think he'd be given the honor.  They made the right decision, though.  And it was a nice touch to have him and Irina Rodnina share the honor.  Those are probably the two biggest names in Soviet/Russian Winter Olympic history.

I was slightly confused by the earlier torchbearers.  Maria Sharapova is from Sochi, so that selection made sense, but all of the torchbearers other than Tretiak and Rodnina are Summer Olympians.  Don't get me wrong, Yelena Isinbayeva, Alexander Karelin and Alina Kabayeva were all deserving, but I would've liked to have seen better representation from winter sports, especially from a winter sports nation as decorated as Russia.  That's nitpicking, though.  Because they got the final choice right.

All in all, Sochi put on a fine show.  Russia welcomed the world and the world was impressed.  Now all we've got left is the actual competition.  Let the Games begin.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Sochi Medal Picks

The Sochi Olympics are finally here.  They kind of snuck up on us, but Winter Olympics often do.  We're preoccupied with Christmas, then the football playoffs, then the Super Bowl, and all of a sudden it's February and the Olympics.

These are the biggest Winter Olympics in history, which NBC has been plugging big in its advertising.  I suppose that's why they think they need an extra day (although I think that's just because the TV networks wanted an extra night of figure skating more than anything else).  Anyhow, there are 98 events being contested in Sochi, and the U.S. has strong medal possibilities in many of the new events, which are mainly in snowboarding and freestyle skiing.  As a result, it's entirely possible that the U.S. could top its record-setting total of 37 medals from Vancouver.

One of those medals in Vancouver was a silver in men's hockey.  Because of that finish and with a bulk of that team returning, the expectations on the U.S. men's team are very high.  I, however, think those expectations are unfair.  The U.S. men's hockey team is very strong, but it's also seeded seventh.  And these Olympics are being played on bigger ice.  The U.S. and Canada met in the gold medal game in each of the two Olympics that have been held in North America since the NHL started participating (2002, 2010).  In 2006, when the Olympics were in Italy, they both went out in the quarterfinals.

I'm tempering my expectations for both of the North American hockey teams.  Not because I think they can't win.  Rather, it's because I wouldn't consider it an upset if either didn't medal.  Especially since like Canada four years ago, host Russia, the No. 1 seed, wants one gold medal more than any other.  I'm not betting against it.  In fact, I've got Russia winning the gold.  Plus, I think Sweden and Finland might be stronger overall than the U.S. and Canada.

Speaking of Russia, they were incredibly disappointed with their showing in Vancouver.  That puts even more pressure on the hosts to perform well in Sochi.  This is the first time Russia is hosting the Olympics since the breakup of the Soviet Union.  For all the controversy and security concerns leading up to the Games, the Russians are determined to make sure everything goes off without a hitch.  But for these Olympics to be considered a success, there's no question the Russian team has to perform.  They won the medal count when Moscow hosted the 1980 Summer Games, but that has an asterisk attached to it because of the U.S.-led boycott.  Even more reason for the hosts to put on a good show in the first Russian Olympics that will be attended by the entire world.

As for the Americans, the team once again is filled with stars.  Of course, there are some stars who won't be in Sochi (most notably Lindsey Vonn), and Shaun White won't compete in slopestyle, but the U.S. team is still plenty loaded.  White's still favored in the halfpipe, though, and he and Shani Davis both have the chance to make history by winning the same event three straight times.  Meanwhile, Meryl Davis and Charlie White are favored for ice dancing gold, which would be the first ever for the United States in that event.  Gracie Gold could definitely be Gracie Bronze, while speed skater Heather Richardson and alpine skier Mikaela Shiffrin have a chance to become America's new favorite Winter Olympians.  Kikkan Randall (who lives near my sister in Anchorage), meanwhile, can make history of her own in cross country skiing.

Without track and swimming, the U.S. won't have its usual inflated medal total of the Summer Games.  And while the U.S. finished with the most overall medals in Vancouver, that was the first time that ever happened.  There's no guarantee it'll happen again, either.  Canada had 14 golds in its home Games, which was another record, while Germany is always among the top nations in the overall medal standings at the Winter Games.  Then there's Austria and Norway, the only two nations that have traditionally been more successful in the Winter than the Summer.

My full Olympic preview will come on Friday after the Opening Ceremony (fun fact about that: "J" is "Y" in Russian, so Jamaica and Japan will be the last nations before Russia), but I have already made my medal picks for each event.  I have 27 nations winning at least one medal, including 23 with at least one gold.  Here's my top 10 (ranked by total medals):

  1. Germany               13-13-9   (35)
  2. Norway                 13-7-12   (32)
  3. United States        10-11-11  (32)
  4. Canada                  12-7-6     (25)
  5. Russia                   7-11-6     (24)
  6. Austria                  6-6-6       (18)
  7. Netherlands          5-3-5       (13)
  8. South Korea         7-3-2       (12)
  9. Sweden                1-5-6       (12)
  10. France                  3-2-6       (11)

Monday, February 3, 2014

Flag Bearer Candidates

With the Olympics right around the corner, different countries are starting to reveal their flag bearers for Friday night's Opening Ceremony.  Some are pretty cool.  For example, the Bruins are letting Zdeno Chara miss two games so that he can carry Slovakia's flag.  But there's one significant flag bearer that hasn't been announced yet.  We still don't know who'll have the honor of carrying the Star-Spangled Banner into Fisht Olympic Stadium.  Never fear, though, I've got some suggestions.

We'll start with the ones we know definitely won't be, for whatever reason.  Shaun White is looking for an unprecedented third straight gold medal in the men's halfpipe, and he has a chance to get two this year because of the new slopestyle event.  However, with the slopestyle prelims the night before the Opening Ceremony (don't get me started on that) and the final the next day, it seems highly unlikely White will even attend.  And if he isn't there, it'll be kinda tough for him to carry the flag.

Same thing with Julie Chu, the captain of the women's hockey team.  She's an Olympic veteran who'll be playing in her fourth straight Olympic tournament (counting Sochi, there's been five).  But with the U.S. women playing the opening game of the entire Olympic hockey competition (at noon local time), Chu's not going to be the flag bearer either.

There are a couple Olympians whose compelling backstories could thrust them into the conversation, as well.  Erika Brown was the youngest member of the U.S. team 26 years ago in Calgary, when curling was a demonstration sport.  In 2014, she's the oldest member of the U.S. Olympic team.  Emily Cook, meanwhile, is a medal contender in women's aerials.  It's her third Olympics, and it would've been her fourth if she didn't have to withdraw due to injury in 2002. 

But if we're awarding persistence, no choice would be better than ski jumper Lindsey Van.  Van was the World Champion entering the Vancouver Games, when women's ski jumping was controversially not added to the Olympic program.  After a leading a long legal fight for her sport's inclusion, Van is finally an Olympian.  Then there's bobsledder Chris Fogt, a U.S. Army vet.

Speaking of bobsledders, Steve Holcomb piloted the U.S. to gold in the four-man event in Vancouver.  It was the first American gold medal in bobsled since 1948.  Holcomb's back in Sochi, driving both the two-man and favored four-man sleds.  He's a veteran, a gold medalist and a medal favorite.  Holcomb would also be a great choice to carry the flag.

Shani Davis would make a fine choice, too.  He's already made Olympic history as the first black athlete (from any country) to win winter gold.  Davis then did it again Vancouver.  And he's favored to capture a third straight gold medal in the 1000 meters in speed skating.  Shani Davis rubs plenty of people the wrong way, though, so you have to wonder if that'll be held against him.

Or how about Bode Miller?  He's one of the most decorated Winter Olympians in history with five medals (in four different events), a record for an Alpine skier.  Bode's back for his fifth, and almost certainly last, Olympics.  It would be a nice gesture to recognize his longevity, as well as his impact on the sport in the U.S.  However, like Davis, he's not the most popular athlete.  Miller's also had a historically prickly relationship with the U.S. Ski Team over the years.  As a result, there are probably plenty of people out there who don't think Miller's as deserving of the honor.

My selection, though, is a guy who's making Winter Olympic history in his own right.  Todd Lodwick will be competing in his record SIXTH! Olympics in Nordic combined.  He was finally rewarded with a medal in Vancouver, when the U.S. won the silver in the team event.  Most people thought that would be Lodwick's Olympic swan song.  Well, he's back for one more.  And this one will almost certainly be it.  I can't think of a better send-off for the pioneer who turned Nordic combined from a sport most Americans knew nothing about to one where the U.S. is a legitimate medal contender.

I think Todd Lodwick is the ideal choice to lead the American team into the stadium at Friday's Opening Ceremony.  It's the biggest honor an Olympian can receive.  And one Todd Lodwick deserves more than anybody.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

And the Super Bowl Pick Is...

Denver.  27-24.  (That's not 27 the way you normally get it.  It's four touchdowns and three extra points.  Just to prove that extra points aren't automatic.)

I know this isn't a surprise to most of you, seeing as I'm pretty blatant in my Peyton Manning fandom, but, other than the fact that I'll be wearing Broncos orange, I do have some legitimate reasons other than wanting them to as to why I think Denver will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at about 10:00 tonight (8:00 Mountain).

During the two weeks leading up to the game, the weather was the only thing anybody could talk about.  Well, it's gorgeous in NYC today, so that's not going to be the problem everyone thought.  I do wonder if it'll affect the game plans, though.  Both teams were probably anticipating wind, freezing rain, possibly snow, and other miserable conditions that would've made the Broncos' passing game and the Seahawks' secondary non-factors.  Under the dire conditions that were predicted, it would've turned into a running game, and Marshawn Lynch, Knowshon Moreno and the offensive lines would've determined the winner.  But now, each team can go back to what got them here.  Peyton Manning and the Seattle defense.

So, we're back to the Broncos' No. 1 offense against the Seahawks' No. 1 defense.  The last time the No. 1 offense played the No. 1 defense in the Super Bowl, the Bucs absolutely crushed the Raiders 11 years ago, getting three touchdowns from that defense that now boasts two Hall of Famers.  That Raider offense, though, is nothing like this Bronco offense.  No offense to Rich Gannon, but he's not Peyton Manning.  And, more importantly, this Seahawks defense isn't that Bucs defense.

We can't talk about the Seattle defense without talking about the guy who finds a way to always make it about himself.  I'm, of course, talking about Richard Sherman.  Which "mediocre" Broncos receiver will he cover?  Frankly, it doesn't really matter.  Because Denver's got too many weapons.  If Pete Carroll opts to put him on Demariyus Thomas, which you'd expect, then Peyton can throw his "ducks" to the white guys and beat Seattle that way. 

That secondary is by far the top unit on this Seahawks team.  Other than Sherman, they've got Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, but Denver's still got too many weapons for Seattle to be able to stop them all.  And even if they do manage to neutralize the wide receivers, Manning can just dump it to Jacob Tamme all day.  Denver also has Peyton Manning.  He'll "Omaha" his way into the most advantageous position, and that includes utilizing Knowshon Moreno.  That's the other weapon Denver has in its back pocket.  Take away the passing game if you want, Peyton will just give the ball to Knowshon and let him win the game.

There's also the experience factor.  Nobody on the Seahawks roster has played in the Super Bowl before.  Normally I wouldn't think that makes a difference.  But when you've got one team full of Super Bowl novices and the other has an all-time legend who's playing in his fourth Super Bowl, as well as a guy who was on the Patriots until this year, that's a huge advantage in Denver's favor.  It won't determine the game, but it's notable nonetheless.

And for all the crap this Broncos defense has gotten about not being good enough, they've got a chip on their shoulder.  I don't think the Denver defense gets enough credit.  The offense is obviously the strength of the team, but is was the defense that held off the Chargers and Patriots in the fourth quarter of their two playoff wins.  The Seahawks defense is obviously better.  There's no question about that.  But if you think the Broncos can't win the Super Bowl with their defense the way it's currently constructed, you'd be wrong.

The unit facing that defense will be Russell Wilson's offense.  Wilson's a completely different quarterback than Manning in his ability to run, which means he doesn't need as much time in the pocket as Peyton does.  And that's what the Seahawks are going to need to do.  They need Marshawn Lynch to have a big game and Wilson to be effective enough to keep the ball moving.  The Seahawks need to run the ball and have long, sustained drives.  That's the only way to keep Manning off the field and keep their own defense from becoming exhausted.

Either way, we've got a great game in store.  These are the two best teams in football, and they're incredibly evenly-matched.  I give the slight edge to the Broncos, though.  After what happened last year, they can't come up short again.  Especially with the season that Peyton had.  He had a season for the ages, but the only way for this to become one of the all-time great seasons is if the Broncos finish the job.  Two years ago, Eli won the Super Bowl in Peyton's house.  It's Peyton's turn to win one in Eli's.