Soccer's Spectacle Is Here

After months of anticipation and endless negative headlines about everything from the ridiculously overpriced and impossible to get tickets to heat concerns to the planned mid-half breaks to the halftime show to various teams' visa issues to the political climate that threatens to cast a pall over the entire event, it's finally time for the World Cup.  I, for one, am very curious to see if the actual soccer ends up taking over the conversation.  I sure hope it does.  Because the actual soccer promises to be incredible.

As FIFA has reminded us repeatedly, this is the largest World Cup history.  There are 48 teams and 104 games, and there are plenty of storylines surrounding so many of those teams.  Can Messi and Argentina defend?  What about France?  Will Spain do what it did in 2010 and back up a Euro title with a World Cup win?  How will the three host countries, particularly the United States, do?  Who will be that surprise team?  We'll find all that out within the next month, leading up to the Final at MetLife Stadium (sorry, New York New Jersey Stadium).

With the expanded field, we've also lost the nice and tidy (not to mention convenient) advancement procedure of the top two teams in each group reaching the knockout stage.  Now, eight third-place finishers move on to the round of 32.  Which obviously makes it easier to advance, but it also creates an incredibly cumbersome bracket where there are 495 possible combinations of third-place teams and nobody will have any idea who they're playing pretty much until the end of group play in every group.  You seriously can play just about anybody.  More on that later, though.  First, let's see who those 32 teams that advance will be.

Group A: Mexico, South Korea, *Czechia, South Africa
Fun fact: With Mexico facing South Africa in the opening game at Azteca, this is the first time the tournament opener has been a repeat matchup.  They also played the first game in 2010 when South Africa hosted.  Anyway, El Tri had a good draw even before Czechia beat Denmark in the European playoff.  I do think the Czechs can move on as one of the best third-place teams, but I have Mexico winning the group and South Korea advancing in second.

Group B: Switzerland, Canada, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Italy would've been in this group had they not inexplicably lost to Bosnia-Herzegovina and missed out on a third straight World Cup.  Having both Italy and Switzerland in the group would've made it really difficult for Canada to advance (even with the Canadians playing at home).  As it is, I see them getting out of the group in second place, while Switzerland wins the group.  That could end up being significant, too.  Because only the group winner stays in Canada for the Round of 32.  The second-place team goes to LA.  Also, congratulations to Qatar on actually qualifying for the first time.

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, *Scotland, Haiti
Brazil and Morocco both come into the tournament with reasonable expectations of winning the group.  So, that opening game at MetLife Stadium could very well decide that.  They should be 1-2 in either order.  Scotland's back in the World Cup and will need to beat Haiti to have any shot at reaching the knockout phase.  Haiti not losing all three games would be a surprise.

Group D: United States, Turkiye, *Australia, Paraguay
This group looked much better for the United States when the draw was made in December than it does on the eve of the tournament in June.  That's because Turkiye is a strong European opponent who beat them pretty badly in a friendly not too long ago. The good thing is they don't play each other until the last game, which may end up deciding the group.  Likewise, the Australia-Paraguay game could decide which one of them makes the Round of 32.

Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, *Ecuador, Curacao
No team wants to make a good showing at this World Cup more than Germany.  Since making four straight semifinals from 2002-14, capped by winning the title 12 years ago, they haven't gotten out of the group in the last two tournaments (but, hey, at least they're not Italy!).  That shouldn't happen with this group.  Especially with an overmatched World Cup debutant is Curacao (or, as Wayne Gretzky calls it, "Kuhrockoh") as their opening opponent.  If Germany doesn't dominate this group, it'll be a surprise.  The real question is who'll finish second.  Ivory Coast or Ecuador?

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, *Tunisia, Sweden
I really have no idea who'll win Group F.  On paper, the Netherlands is the favorite, and I do expect it to be them, but I also wouldn't be shocked if they got upset.  Japan is a consistent World Cup performer, and this is a great opportunity for them.  I could say the same thing about Tunisia, though.  And Sweden got out of the European playoffs, so you know they're no slouch.

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, *Iran, New Zealand
The futbol gods smiled down on Belgium by granting them by far the weakest group.  Getting out if it in first place should be absolutely no problem.  Under normal circumstances, I'd like Iran to join them in the Round of 32, but these are anything but normal circumstances for Iran.  Maybe they'll surprise all of us and go on a run, but it also wouldn't shock anyone if all of the off-the-field stuff is too much.  Even still, the winner of that Iran-Egypt game should advance.

Group H: Spain, Uruguay, *Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde
Cape Verde is another overmatched smaller nation making its World Cup debut against a heavyweight.  In their case, it's a Spain team that many think can win the whole thing (fun fact: this blog is called "Joe Brackets" because I was given that nickname after I correctly picked Spain as the winner in 2010).  I'm not ready to completely anoint them yet, though, because Uruguay had a great run at the Copa America, which was played in several World Cup stadiums, two years ago.  And Saudi Arabia beat eventual champion Argentina in the first game at the 2022 World Cup.

Group I: France, Senegal, *Norway, Iraq
Every World Cup has its "Group of Death."  The stronger teams are a little more spread out in a 48-team, 12-group field, but this World Cup still has one, and it's Group I.  France is obviously one of the top teams in the world.  Senegal is the top team in Africa.  Norway went undefeated in European qualifying (in Italy's group) and boasts one of the world's best players in Erling Haaland.  All three should advance in any order.  It really could depend on how they all do against Iraq.

Group J: Argentina, Austria, Algeria, Jordan
Jordan and the A's in Group J.  Messi is back for another World Cup, as Argentina looks to become the first repeat champions in more than six decades (Brazil in 1962 was the last to do it).  Winning the group shouldn't be an issue.  The rest of it, though?  That's where it's questionable.  Austria is probably the strongest of the other three teams, so I'll give them the second-place nod.

Group K: Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan
Don't discount how important winning the 2024 Copa America was for Colombia.  They're a huge threat in this tournament.  So much so that Ronaldo and Portugal winning this group isn't a foregone conclusion by any means.  They end group play against each other in Miami, where the difference between winning and losing could be huge (the winner gets a third-place team, the loser gets L2, which should be either England or Croatia).  DR Congo is in its first World Cup since 1974 (as Zaire), and Uzbekistan is here for the first time ever after coming so close in qualifying at the last several editions.

Group L: England, Croatia, Panama, Ghana
England and Croatia are in the same group for the UEFA Nations League.  They're also in the same group at the World Cup.  So, they'll be seeing a lot of each other over the next few months.  Like Portugal and Colombia, they know the importance of winning the group and avoiding one of the other two.  Unlike Portugal and Colombia, they face each other in the first game.  I'm also curious to see how well Panama does.  They obviously play in the U.S. a lot and had a very good tournament at the 2024 Copa America.

One of the problems with the expanded tournament and the third-place teams advancing is that it's impossible to know the bracket ahead of time.  Based on my group predictions, combination 285 would be used to set the field for the knockout phase (the third-place teams who advance have asterisks).  I won't go through the entire bracket, but I've got Canada losing in the Round of 16 and the United States and Mexico both reaching the quarterfinals.  My semifinals are a pair of border wars: France vs. Spain at Jerry World and Brazil vs. Argentina in Atlanta.  And, in the end, I've got Spain hoisting the trophy after defeating Messi & Co. in the final.