Denver. 27-24. (That's not 27 the way you normally get it. It's four touchdowns and three extra points. Just to prove that extra points aren't automatic.)
I know this isn't a surprise to most of you, seeing as I'm pretty blatant in my Peyton Manning fandom, but, other than the fact that I'll be wearing Broncos orange, I do have some legitimate reasons other than wanting them to as to why I think Denver will be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at about 10:00 tonight (8:00 Mountain).
During the two weeks leading up to the game, the weather was the only thing anybody could talk about. Well, it's gorgeous in NYC today, so that's not going to be the problem everyone thought. I do wonder if it'll affect the game plans, though. Both teams were probably anticipating wind, freezing rain, possibly snow, and other miserable conditions that would've made the Broncos' passing game and the Seahawks' secondary non-factors. Under the dire conditions that were predicted, it would've turned into a running game, and Marshawn Lynch, Knowshon Moreno and the offensive lines would've determined the winner. But now, each team can go back to what got them here. Peyton Manning and the Seattle defense.
So, we're back to the Broncos' No. 1 offense against the Seahawks' No. 1 defense. The last time the No. 1 offense played the No. 1 defense in the Super Bowl, the Bucs absolutely crushed the Raiders 11 years ago, getting three touchdowns from that defense that now boasts two Hall of Famers. That Raider offense, though, is nothing like this Bronco offense. No offense to Rich Gannon, but he's not Peyton Manning. And, more importantly, this Seahawks defense isn't that Bucs defense.
We can't talk about the Seattle defense without talking about the guy who finds a way to always make it about himself. I'm, of course, talking about Richard Sherman. Which "mediocre" Broncos receiver will he cover? Frankly, it doesn't really matter. Because Denver's got too many weapons. If Pete Carroll opts to put him on Demariyus Thomas, which you'd expect, then Peyton can throw his "ducks" to the white guys and beat Seattle that way.
That secondary is by far the top unit on this Seahawks team. Other than Sherman, they've got Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, but Denver's still got too many weapons for Seattle to be able to stop them all. And even if they do manage to neutralize the wide receivers, Manning can just dump it to Jacob Tamme all day. Denver also has Peyton Manning. He'll "Omaha" his way into the most advantageous position, and that includes utilizing Knowshon Moreno. That's the other weapon Denver has in its back pocket. Take away the passing game if you want, Peyton will just give the ball to Knowshon and let him win the game.
There's also the experience factor. Nobody on the Seahawks roster has played in the Super Bowl before. Normally I wouldn't think that makes a difference. But when you've got one team full of Super Bowl novices and the other has an all-time legend who's playing in his fourth Super Bowl, as well as a guy who was on the Patriots until this year, that's a huge advantage in Denver's favor. It won't determine the game, but it's notable nonetheless.
And for all the crap this Broncos defense has gotten about not being good enough, they've got a chip on their shoulder. I don't think the Denver defense gets enough credit. The offense is obviously the strength of the team, but is was the defense that held off the Chargers and Patriots in the fourth quarter of their two playoff wins. The Seahawks defense is obviously better. There's no question about that. But if you think the Broncos can't win the Super Bowl with their defense the way it's currently constructed, you'd be wrong.
The unit facing that defense will be Russell Wilson's offense. Wilson's a completely different quarterback than Manning in his ability to run, which means he doesn't need as much time in the pocket as Peyton does. And that's what the Seahawks are going to need to do. They need Marshawn Lynch to have a big game and Wilson to be effective enough to keep the ball moving. The Seahawks need to run the ball and have long, sustained drives. That's the only way to keep Manning off the field and keep their own defense from becoming exhausted.
Either way, we've got a great game in store. These are the two best teams in football, and they're incredibly evenly-matched. I give the slight edge to the Broncos, though. After what happened last year, they can't come up short again. Especially with the season that Peyton had. He had a season for the ages, but the only way for this to become one of the all-time great seasons is if the Broncos finish the job. Two years ago, Eli won the Super Bowl in Peyton's house. It's Peyton's turn to win one in Eli's.
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