We're almost a week into the Sochi Olympics, but for many, the Olympics don't really start until Wednesday. That's because that's when the men's hockey tournament starts. The NHL break started on Sunday, and for the first time, each of the 12 national teams includes at least one current NHL player on the roster. Although, despite that, I think we can all agree that Slovenia, Norway, Austria and Latvia have absolutely no chance. As for the rest of the field? That's anybody's guess. That's why these Olympic tournaments with NHL players are so exciting.
The Russians, of course, are expecting gold. They haven't won since the breakup of the Soviet Union, and were embarrassed, 7-3, in the quarterfinals in Vancouver. Much like in 2010, the gold in men's hockey means more to the host country than any other. The Canadians delivered in Vancouver. And I think Russia has a very good chance of doing the same in Sochi.
Russia is the No. 1 seed and in Group A with Slovakia, Slovenia and the United States. Slovakia finished a surprising fourth in 2010, and gave Canada all it could handle in the semifinals. The Slovakian captain is Zdeno Chara of the Bruins, and they also have Blackhawks right wing Marian Hossa. However, Marian Gaborik is injured, severely limiting their offensive attack. Jaroslav Halak of the Blues is the Slovakian goalie, and they might need him to steal a game if they're going to advance to the quarterfinals.
Assuming Slovakia finishes third in the group and Slovenia finishes last, that means the highly-anticipated USA-Russia game will likely determine the group winner. A lot of people are extremely high on this American team, especially after that silver medal in Vancouver. A bulk of that team returns, including Sabres goalie Ryan Miller, the 2010 Olympic MVP. The scary thing is Miller might not even be the best goalie on the team. That might be the Kings' Jonathan Quick, the Conn Smythe Trophy winner two years ago. Without question, the American goalie tandem is the best in the tournament.
However, I'm not going overboard with my expectations. We all remember Torino, don't we? The last American medal in an Olympics outside North America was a silver in Sapporo, Japan in 1972. The last American hockey medal in Europe? 1956! They've got that history to contend with, as well as the Russians and plenty of strong teams in the other two groups.
Group B features the defending champion Canadians and my sleeper pick Finland, as well as Norway and Austria. Canada and Finland won the group lottery. They should easily finish 1-2 in this group, and whichever one finishes second will probably be the fourth team that gets a bye into the quarterfinals. No need to breakdown what the Canadians are bringing to Sochi. You could easily make a team of guys NOT representing Canada at the Olympics and it would probably contend for a medal. My only question about the Canadians is in goal. Roberto Luongo was the starter in Vancouver (where he played in his home rink) and is the presumed starter here. But he's been incredibly shaky for the Canucks over the past couple seasons. Carey Price of the Canadiens is likely the other option to start, seeing as the third goalie is another head case, the Penguins' Marc-Andre Fleury.
But like their North American brethren, Canada hasn't done the best at Olympics in Europe. They've sandwiched golds in Salt Lake City and Vancouver around a seventh-place finish in Torino that included a loss to Switzerland.
That's why my pick in Group B is Finland. Finland has won three medals in the four NHL Olympics, including a silver in Torino, where they were undefeated before a loss to Sweden in the gold medal game. I really like this Finnish team, mainly because of the guys between the pipes. I'm assuming Boston's Tuukka Rask will be the starter, but they've also got Antti Niemi of the Sharks and Kari Lehtonen of the Stars. None would be a bad choice. Finland's going to have to overcome some injuries to its forwards, but Ryan Miller almost single-handedly won a silver medal for the U.S. in Vancouver. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of these Finnish goalies do the same thing.
Speaking of goaltending, Henrik Lundqvist makes Sweden the favorite in Group C. And let's also keep in mind that Sweden was the gold medalist at each of the last two European Olympics (1994 Lillehammer, 2006 Torino). With a loaded roster and arguably the best goalie in the tournament (who's already won them one Olympic gold medal), there's no reason not to think Sweden is perhaps the team best-equipped to challenge Russia for the gold.
Rounding out Group C are Switzerland, Latvia and the Czech Republic. Latvia is coached by former Sabres and Islanders coach Ted Nolan and their most familiar name is Sandis Ozolinsh. Except he's 41 years old and hasn't played in the NHL in years. The only current NHLer on the Latvian roster is Sabres rookie Zemgus Girgensons. At least they have Slovenia to keep them out of last place overall.
While the Czech Republic is the easy No. 2 pick in this group, I'm not sleeping on Switzerland. No one's ever going to confuse the Swiss with the Top 7, but they won the silver at the World Championships last year and have been an annoying pest to at least one of the big-name teams at the last two Olympics. In 2006, they beat Canada and finished second in their group. Then they took the Canadians to overtime in 2010. With Jonas Hiller of the Ducks in goal, I don't think it's out of the question to see Switzerland pull off the minor upset against the Czech Republic.
So who wins the gold? Well, my call for the medals is Russia-Finland-Sweden. Much like Canada was a team on a mission in Vancouver, you can say the same thing about the Russians this time. As for the other two medals, I'd be very surprised if Sweden doesn't reach the semifinals. And I just have a feeling about Finland. They always play well at the Olympics. As for the fourth semifinalist, it'll be one of the two North American teams, probably Canada. The matchups, the big ice and the European crowds will all work against both the Americans and Canadians. We're not getting another Canada-U.S. final. I'd be surprised if they both medal.
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