Sochi Medal Picks

The Sochi Olympics are finally here.  They kind of snuck up on us, but Winter Olympics often do.  We're preoccupied with Christmas, then the football playoffs, then the Super Bowl, and all of a sudden it's February and the Olympics.

These are the biggest Winter Olympics in history, which NBC has been plugging big in its advertising.  I suppose that's why they think they need an extra day (although I think that's just because the TV networks wanted an extra night of figure skating more than anything else).  Anyhow, there are 98 events being contested in Sochi, and the U.S. has strong medal possibilities in many of the new events, which are mainly in snowboarding and freestyle skiing.  As a result, it's entirely possible that the U.S. could top its record-setting total of 37 medals from Vancouver.

One of those medals in Vancouver was a silver in men's hockey.  Because of that finish and with a bulk of that team returning, the expectations on the U.S. men's team are very high.  I, however, think those expectations are unfair.  The U.S. men's hockey team is very strong, but it's also seeded seventh.  And these Olympics are being played on bigger ice.  The U.S. and Canada met in the gold medal game in each of the two Olympics that have been held in North America since the NHL started participating (2002, 2010).  In 2006, when the Olympics were in Italy, they both went out in the quarterfinals.

I'm tempering my expectations for both of the North American hockey teams.  Not because I think they can't win.  Rather, it's because I wouldn't consider it an upset if either didn't medal.  Especially since like Canada four years ago, host Russia, the No. 1 seed, wants one gold medal more than any other.  I'm not betting against it.  In fact, I've got Russia winning the gold.  Plus, I think Sweden and Finland might be stronger overall than the U.S. and Canada.

Speaking of Russia, they were incredibly disappointed with their showing in Vancouver.  That puts even more pressure on the hosts to perform well in Sochi.  This is the first time Russia is hosting the Olympics since the breakup of the Soviet Union.  For all the controversy and security concerns leading up to the Games, the Russians are determined to make sure everything goes off without a hitch.  But for these Olympics to be considered a success, there's no question the Russian team has to perform.  They won the medal count when Moscow hosted the 1980 Summer Games, but that has an asterisk attached to it because of the U.S.-led boycott.  Even more reason for the hosts to put on a good show in the first Russian Olympics that will be attended by the entire world.

As for the Americans, the team once again is filled with stars.  Of course, there are some stars who won't be in Sochi (most notably Lindsey Vonn), and Shaun White won't compete in slopestyle, but the U.S. team is still plenty loaded.  White's still favored in the halfpipe, though, and he and Shani Davis both have the chance to make history by winning the same event three straight times.  Meanwhile, Meryl Davis and Charlie White are favored for ice dancing gold, which would be the first ever for the United States in that event.  Gracie Gold could definitely be Gracie Bronze, while speed skater Heather Richardson and alpine skier Mikaela Shiffrin have a chance to become America's new favorite Winter Olympians.  Kikkan Randall (who lives near my sister in Anchorage), meanwhile, can make history of her own in cross country skiing.

Without track and swimming, the U.S. won't have its usual inflated medal total of the Summer Games.  And while the U.S. finished with the most overall medals in Vancouver, that was the first time that ever happened.  There's no guarantee it'll happen again, either.  Canada had 14 golds in its home Games, which was another record, while Germany is always among the top nations in the overall medal standings at the Winter Games.  Then there's Austria and Norway, the only two nations that have traditionally been more successful in the Winter than the Summer.

My full Olympic preview will come on Friday after the Opening Ceremony (fun fact about that: "J" is "Y" in Russian, so Jamaica and Japan will be the last nations before Russia), but I have already made my medal picks for each event.  I have 27 nations winning at least one medal, including 23 with at least one gold.  Here's my top 10 (ranked by total medals):

1. Germany               13-13-9   (35)
2. Norway                 13-7-12   (32)
3. United States        10-11-11  (32)
4. Canada                  12-7-6     (25)
5. Russia                   7-11-6     (24)
6. Austria                  6-6-6       (18)
7. Netherlands          5-3-5       (13)
8. South Korea         7-3-2       (12)
9. Sweden                1-5-6       (12)
10. France                  3-2-6       (11)