2023 Picks, Week 4

Week 4 begins in London, the first of five international games this year (and the first of back-to-back London games for the Jaguars, who are the "home" team this week and the "road" team next week).  It ends, for the second time this season, with two prime time games at MetLife Stadium.  That's right, for the second time in the first four weeks, the Giants and Jets are both playing prime time home games.  You know how many Sunday afternoon games there have been at MetLife, a stadium that's home to two teams, this season?  A grand total of one!

Thursday Night: Green Bay (Loss)

Falcons (2-1) vs Jaguars (1-2): Jacksonville-For some reason, the Jaguars just can't beat Houston.  It really is weird.  Especially since they're a better team than the Texans now.  And, as a result of their loss last week, they head to London at 1-2 instead of 2-1.  I wonder how much of an advantage it'll be next week that it'll be their second straight game in London (or if it'll be an advantage at all).  That's a big one against Buffalo.  They can't go into it 1-3.

Dolphins (3-0) at Bills (2-1): Buffalo-It was basically their homecoming game.  That's the only way to describe it.  The Dolphins' home opener was the equivalent of scheduling a guarantee game against an FCS team.  Not only that, they're also the only 3-0 team in the AFC.  Now they go to Buffalo, where the Bills face the team that beat the Broncos the week before for the third time in a row.  Buffalo won the first two.  They should make it three and knock Miami from the ranks of the undefeated.

Broncos (0-3) at Bears (0-3): Denver-There are four remaining winless teams in the NFL.  In a quirky little coincidence, they're all playing each other this week.  Which means at least two of them have to not lose!  In the first of those games, Denver visits Chicago.  I don't know how you give up 70 points in an NFL game, but the Broncos somehow managed to figure it out last week.  One thing I can guarantee is that they won't allow 70 again this week.  It'll take the Bears weeks to score 70 points.  They aren't good.

Ravens (2-1) at Browns (2-1): Baltimore-If you're the Ravens, how can you not be disappointed with last week?  They probably went into it thinking Indy at home would be an easy win.  Instead, they were lucky just to go to overtime, where the Colts won on a field goal.  That result, coupled with the Browns' and Steelers' wins mean we have a three-way tie in the AFC North.  Which adds importance to this one.  Can Cleveland keep up their hot start or will Baltimore bounce back and assert itself as the top team in the division?

Bengals (1-2) at Titans (1-2): Tennessee-While it may sound a little extreme to say last Monday's game was a "must win" for the Bengals, it was pretty close.  An 0-3 start would've been pretty hard to come back from.  The Titans, meanwhile, laid an egg in Cleveland.  They're better than that performance.  They'll show that this week and send the Bengals to 1-3.

Rams (1-2) at Colts (2-1): Indianapolis-In an AFC South that is seemingly reverting to its old self, the Colts sit alone in first place entering October.  I can't say Indianapolis has done anything super great, but they have gone on the road and won two in a row after losing their season opener.  Now they get a Rams team that's better than its record, but is playing a second straight road game with a long flight after a Monday nighter.  That, more than anything else, is why I'm taking the Colts.

Buccaneers (2-1) at Saints (2-1): New Orleans-During the three years Tom Brady played in Tampa, the Saints were the one team that had his number.  Kinda like the Dolphins when he was in New England.  Anyway, this matchup no longer features either Brees or Brady, and it won't feature Derek Carr, either, as Jamies Winston will be under center for New Orleans.  He's not a bad backup to have, and I think he'll do just fine.  In fact, I think he'll lead the Saints to a victory that puts them in sole possession of first place.

Commanders (2-1) at Eagles (3-0): Philadelphia-People have been talking about San Francisco and Miami and Dallas and Kansas City.  I think they've been forgetting Philadelphia.  But the Eagles are one of only three 3-0 teams in the NFL and showing no signs of Super Bowl hangover.  The crazy thing is I don't think they've played their best yet, either.  And they're still 3-0.  Make that 4-0.

Vikings (0-3) at Panthers (0-3): Carolina-The other game between winless teams is the Vikings and Panthers.  It's not entirely surprising that the law of averages has caught up to Minnesota this season after they won so many close games last year.  I fear another close loss might be in store for them again this week.  Carolina gets Bryce Young back after he missed the Seahawk game with an ankle injury, and the No. 1 pick should be rewarded with his first NFL win.

Steelers (2-1) at Texans (1-2): Pittsburgh-Mike Tomlin really doesn't get enough credit sometimes.  Every time people get down on the Steelers, he shows us why we shouldn't.  Pittsburgh lost its opener, then earned back-to-back primetime wins to sit in a three-way tie atop the AFC North.  Now they go to Houston for a matchup with a very beatable Texans team.  Of course, I also said that about the Jaguars last week, so they'd better be careful and come ready to play.

Raiders (1-2) at Chargers (1-2): Chargers-Jimmy Garoppolo will not play for the Raiders.  That's actually big since the winner of this one will keep pace with the Chiefs.  Yes, it's Week 4 and we're already talking about Kansas City pulling away in the division.  The Chargers got a boost of confidence by beating Minnesota last week.  They needed it.  Just like the need a win here to get to 2-2 before their bye.  Because they've got Dallas, Kansas City after the bye and they could be looking at 1-5 in the face if they don't win this one.

Patriots (1-2) at Cowboys (2-1): Dallas-Just when people started putting the Cowboys at the top of their NFL power rankings, they go and lay an egg in Arizona.  Are the Cowboys a better team than the Cardinals?  Yes.  Did they play like it last week?  No.  Will they take it out on the Patriots in Ezekiel Elliot's return?  Probably.  The Patriots got the win last week because of one big play.  If not for that, they easily could be 0-3 right now.

Cardinals (1-2) at 49ers (3-0): San Francisco-San Francisco has scored exactly 30 points in each of its first three games this season.  For a team that's known for its defense, that's a pretty good (and consistent) offensive output.  They've got a Sunday night game against Dallas next week that they should go into with a 4-0 record.  The real question is whether they'll score an even 30 again.

Chiefs (2-1) at Jets (1-2): Kansas City-I attended an event with the Sunday Night Football crew a few days ago where they (jokingly...I think) set the over-under on the number of times they'll cut to Taylor Swift at 22.  (But, sure, she and Travis Kelce aren't dating.)  Is it bad that I'm tempted to take the over?  Collinsworth said this has a chance to be a really compelling matchup between the Chiefs offense and the Jets defense.  Or, it won't be.  Another shocking fact about this game is that it'll be the first time Patrick Mahomes has ever played at MetLife Stadium.  How is that even possible?

Seahawks (2-1) at Giants (1-2): Giants-After a West Coast trip that saw them lose two key players, the Giants return home for a Monday nighter against a third straight NFC West opponent--the Seahawks.  It'll be Geno Smith's return to MetLife Stadium with a Seattle team that's put up 37 points in each of its last two games, both wins.  Can the Giants defense stop them?  They're gonna need to.  Because this is a winnable game.  It's also their only home game in this brutal five-game stretch.  And, in a division with the Eagles and Cowboys, they need to grab every win they can.

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 31-18