Another Set of SEC Tigers

The dust has barely settled on the latest round of conference realignment, and we still have no idea what's gonna happen between the Pac-2 and Mountain West, but that hasn't stopped the latest round in this seemingly never-ending conversation from being discussed.  Now it's Clemson.  They aren't happy in the ACC and want out.  They've made no secret about that.  They've also made no secret about where they want to go.

Clemson was one of three schools that voted against Stanford, Cal and SMU joining the ACC, along with Florida State and North Carolina.  (NC State was originally a fourth vote against before changing its mind, giving them enough "yes" votes for the expansion to proceed.)  Even after the three new members made some concessions as part of their admission, that apparently wasn't enough to satisfy Clemson.  They've previewed an October announcement about their future, which sure makes it look like they're intending to leave the ACC.

When the ACC signed its most recent media rights deal with ESPN, every school signed a "grant of rights" with the conference, meaning any revenue would be split equally between conference members for the duration of the contract.  The ACC's grant of rights doesn't expire until 2036.  If a team leaves the conference before then, they forfeit whatever their remaining share is.  It's because of the grant of rights that the ACC seemed immune to any conference realignment talk.  Seemed is the key word here.

At the time, every ACC team was satisfied with the grant of rights because they're guaranteed a significant payout throughout the duration of the deal.  The ACC's revenue has only gone up since then, so the payments have, thus, also increased.  However, they've since seen the Big Ten and SEC sign new media rights deals that will guarantee their members significantly more than ACC teams.  Clemson and Florida State are especially unhappy with that gap and are worried it will result in them getting left behind.

As a response to those concerns, the ACC created a pool that will allow schools to earn more based on their performance.  Stanford and Cal also agreed to take a reduced share.  And SMU will take no share at all for their first seven years in the ACC!  That should help fill the gap a little bit.  It's still not enough for Clemson, though.  And, it seems, the addition of the three Western schools has only increased their desire to leave.

Where would Clemson go?  Well, that's obvious.  The SEC's adding Texas and Oklahoma next season.  That's what got this whole merry-go-round started again to begin with.  Don't be surprised if Clemson and Florida State are the next to receive SEC invites.

Adding Texas and Oklahoma brought the SEC to 16.  Once the Big Ten adds the four Pac-12 schools next season, they'll have 18.  The Big XII will also be at 16 when they swap Texas and Oklahoma for their four Pac-12 schools.  The SEC and Big Ten have been the two top dogs in college athletics for a while.  So, as soon as the Big Ten got to 18, you know the SEC was looking to at least match that number.

But what schools make sense for the SEC?  Clemson and Florida State.  They're obvious fits not just because of their success in football, but because they're already in the SEC footprint and have existing rivalries with SEC members South Carolina (Clemson) and Florida (Florida State).  So, they'd be good fits all the way around.  And the interest is certainly mutual.

Going to the SEC is clearly Clemson and Florida State's ultimate goal.  They've been the most successful ACC football programs, so they feel like they deserve a larger share than their current conference opponents.  They're also the highest-profile ACC football teams, so they also generate much more revenue than Boston College or Virginia Tech.  Those are just some of the reasons why they feel like the SEC is a better fit for them football-wise.

This news isn't all that shocking.  In fact, if we're being honest, it's a development that many of us likely expected.  As soon as it became public that Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina voted against the expansion and the ACC did it anyway, it became obvious that Clemson and Florida State would look to leave sooner rather than later.  North Carolina is less of a guarantee because of their relationship with NC State and Duke, but if they were to get an offer from the Big Ten whenever it decides it wants to become the Big Ten x 2 (which is entirely possible), you know they'll jump at the chance.

Frankly, that's why adding Stanford, Cal and SMU was so important for the ACC.  Yes, they threw Stanford and Cal a lifeline after they got left out of the Pac-12 exodus.  But they also knew as a conference that they couldn't get left out in this round of realignment.  Not when everyone else was expanding.  And not when they had clearly dissatisfied members who they knew were looking for a way out.

With the three additions, the ACC will have 18 next year (17 in football).  If they hadn't added them and Clemson and Florida State still left for the SEC, then the ACC would be down to 12 football-playing members and 13 in everything else.  That's clearly not enough in this new era where other conferences have 18 teams.  Now, even if Florida State and Clemson leave, they'll still have 16 (15 in football), which is still comparable to the other Power 4 conferences.

Of course, the ACC is still the most vulnerable of the Power 4 conferences, and you know that Clemson and Florida State won't be the only targets when/if the other leagues want to expand.  I've already heard Virginia mentioned along with North Carolina for the Big Ten.  And, everyone (including Notre Dame) knows that Notre Dame really should be in the Big Ten.  So, this would by far be the last of it.

We also have no idea if Clemson definitely wants to leave the ACC for the SEC.  This is all just speculation at this point.  It certainly seems credible, though.  And, while we haven't heard as much about Florida State, we know they're disgruntled, too.  So them going to the SEC together seems inevitable sooner or later.  Likely sooner.