Game 1 or Game 7?

I have to admit that I'm not the first one to think of this particular topic.  My friend, Jim Henneman, wrote about it a few years ago, and I completely agree with him.  Although, I'm gonna take it one further.  Jim made a pretty compelling argument that your best starter should pitch Game 2 of a playoff series instead of Game 1.  I'm thinking a case could be made to hold him off until Game 3, though.

The traditional wisdom has always been that you start your ace in your first playoff game, your second-best pitcher in the next game, etc.  You can't always line it up, of course, since they may not be available for their desired game based on when they last pitched.  But, if teams are able, the set it up so that their No. 1 pitcher starts Game 1, then as many games as possible after that.  That's one of the advantages of all the off days in the postseason (and the byes into the Division Series for the 1 & 2 seeds).

In a five-game series, you absolutely want your ace on the mound in Game 1.  That way, it flips back around to him in Game 5, which is exactly what you want.  Although, with the way the Division Series schedules are set up, the teams in one league can get away with just three starters, which would put their Game 2 starter in line for Game 5 should they go that route.

A seven-game series is a completely different animal, though.  And that's where the conventional wisdom of your No. 1 guy in Game 1 might not necessarily be the best plan.  Because, if you think about it, Games 2 & 6 are much more pivotal than Games 1 & 5.  So that might be when you want your most trusted arm on the mound.

Of course, you're not gonna win in the postseason if you only have one starting pitcher.  The 1990s Braves dynasty had three Hall of Famers, so it really didn't matter what order Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz pitched in.  (They actually had the ideal setup--Maddux to start, Glavine in the pivotal middle games, Smoltz in the winner-take-all finale.)  But most teams don't have three Hall of Fame starting pitchers.  They're lucky to have three really good ones.  More likely, they'll have two guys they really trust.

That's why I think, and hear me out on this, your best move might be using your No. 3 starter in Game 1.  If you think about it, Game 1 is arguably the least-important game in a seven-game series.  Sure, you want to win it and get a 1-0 lead.  But if you lose Game 1 with your best pitcher on the mound, the pressure's on, and you don't have him again until Game 5...if it gets that far.  If you lose Game 1 and haven't used your ace yet, though, you're in a better position.

Meanwhile, think about the situation in Games 2 & 6.  Someone has to have a series lead in even-numbered games.  So, in Game 2 there are three possible scenarios.  You'll either be up 2-0, down 0-2 or tied 1-1.  Which means whoever's pitching Game 2 is either trying to give you a 2-0 lead or prevent you from going down 2-0.  Then that same pitcher is on the mound again in Game 6, which is even more pivotal.

Game 7 obviously gets the most attention because it's winner-take-all, but Game 6 is also always an elimination game.  The Game 6 starter (who's usually also the Game 2 starter) is either pitching to keep his team's season alive or end the other team's.  Frankly, it's the highest-pressure game of the entire series.  So, I'd want my best guy going then.  For most teams, that's not an issue.  The Phillies have Wheeler and Nola.  The Diamondbacks have Gallen and Kelly.  But who's your third starter?

Brandon Pfaadt and Ranger Suarez will be starting Game 7 of the NLCS.  Not exactly a who's who.  Had they started Game 1, however, then both teams would have one of their big guys available.  Yes, I understand that it's all hands on deck with the exception of the Game 6 starter (and even sometimes he's good to go in relief).  But if you've got a starter who you can count on going deep into the game, you don't need to rely on your entire staff in the most pivotal game of the season.

Of course, that wasn't always the case.  Back when teams used only three starters throughout the playoffs, your best starter would go in Game 1 because you wanted him to pitch three times, with his third start coming in Game 7.  Who can forget that epic Game 7 in 1991 with Hall of Famers Jack Morris (in his third start of the series) and John Smoltz throwing up zero after zero?

However, those days are long gone.  The last pitcher to make three starts in a World Series was Curt Schilling in 2001.  The 2009 Yankees also went with a three-man rotation, so CC Sabathia would've had that World Series gone seven, and Madison Bumgarner had that ridiculous five-inning relief appearance in Game 7 two days after starting Game 5 in 2014.  But, for the most part, you're only seeing a starting pitcher twice in a postseason series.

Here's the thing, though, your Game 5 starter (aka, your best guy) usually ends up pitching out of the bullpen in Game 7 at some point.  Why?  Because he's the best arm you've got.  All the more reason to consider making it so that you can get more length from your top guys in Games 6 & 7.

There's a valid counterargument that there might not be a Game 6 or 7 if you don't use your top pitchers earlier in the series.  If you've only got two starters you can count on, you want them to both pitch as much as possible.  You especially don't want to hold one back for a Game 7 that you're hoping doesn't even happen.  But what if it does and you're left with your No. 3 option to pitch the most important game of the season?

That's why Texas will have a huge advantage if the World Series goes the distance.  They'll have Max Scherzer in line for Game 7.  Of course, not every team has the luxury of having a Max Scherzer as their third starter in the playoffs.  Which only helps emphasize my point.  You're most likely gonna have to win a game with either your third or fourth starter regardless.  Would you rather that be Game 1, when you've still got a chance to come back if you lose, and you know you'll have your top two guys in four of the final six games?  Or in a Game 7 where there's no margin for error?

Yes, it's a little crazy.  Yes, it's a little out there.  But so were things like an opener, an infield overshift, and a pitch clock once upon a time.  If you've got three solid starters, you don't need to worry about it.  If you don't, you have to figure something out, so why not try it?  The hope, of course, is to avoid a Game 7, which would render the idea moot.  But wouldn't you want to be prepared for one just in case?

For a team to get to this point, they have to have a good pitching staff.  A pitching staff that's good enough to feel comfortable with whoever goes out there.  I get that.  And I get that holding your best starter until Game 3 is most likely ever happening if the LCS goes seven and you don't have much of a choice in the matter.  But that's when I'd rather have my horse going anyway.  Because Game 7 is a whole lot more important than Game 1!