Don't Blame the Format

For the second time in as many years since MLB expanded the playoffs to six teams per league and gave the top two division winners a bye into the Division Series, the Braves and Dodgers were the No. 1 and 2 seeds in the National League.  For the second straight year, they both won 100 games.  For the second straight year, they were eliminated in the Division Series by a team from their own division.  And, for the second straight year, the NLCS features two wild card teams.

It hasn't been much different in the American League.  Last year, the top two seeds--the Astros and Yankees--did advance to the ALCS, but the Yankees only did so by the skin of their teeth.  This year, Houston is back, but top-seeded Baltimore was swept by Texas in the Division Series.  So, in the two years of the current playoff format, five of the eight teams that had a bye into the Division Series did not make the LCS.

Granted, two years is a very small sample size.  But those stats are alarming nonetheless!  When the new format was devised, that bye into the Division Series was seen as an advantage.  The top two teams wouldn't face the pressure of a best-of-three Wild Card Series, and they'd be able to rest up while lining up their pitching for the Division Series.  It was their reward for being one of the two best teams over 162 games.

What we've seen over the past two Octobers, though, is that the bye hasn't exactly proven to be an advantage.  In fact, it's been anything but.  And it's prompted some fans and experts alike to wonder if they should change the format again.  Because the division winners have definitely looked like they've been sitting around for a week.  

During the season, they play pretty much every day for six months.  So, waiting around for five days before the start of the Division Series is their longest break of the entire season.  It takes them out of their rhythm.  Especially against an opponent that not only was just playing, but is also at least on a little bit of a roll after having just won a best-of-three series.  If anything, that Wild Card Series winner is the one with the momentum.  Not the top-two seed.

The Braves blamed the layoff for their early exit last season, so they tried something this year.  In an attempt to add some intensity to their workouts, they played simulated intersquad games and admitted fans into the ballpark for them.  It didn't work.  They lost to the Phillies again.

Is it possible that the matchups were actually the reason?  Of course!  The Braves didn't want to play the Phillies because they knew it would be a much tougher series.  And, yes, a division rival will be much more familiar with you, so it could be considered bad luck that the Braves drew the Phillies two years in a row and the Dodgers also had a division opponent both times (San Diego and Arizona).  But, that argument goes both ways.  You should be as familiar with a division foe as they are with you.  Besides, if you're the better team (which the division winner should be), your opponent really shouldn't matter.

Meanwhile, the Astros have provided the counter argument.  So far, Houston's the only team that's been able to figure it out.  Last season, the Astros got the bye into the Division Series and went on to win the World Series.  This year, they won the AL West on a tiebreaker, which again gave them the first-round bye, and they were the only division winner to actually make it to the LCS.  So, it can be done.  Maybe there's nothing wrong with the format then.

One of the proposed solutions is changing the Wild Card Series from a best-of-three to a single game.  That way, the top two division winners would still get a bye into the Division Series, but wouldn't have to sit around for a week waiting for their opponent.  Seeing as so many didn't like the single-elimination Wild Card Game because they considered it unfair and that MLB sold the rights for 8-12 (not 4) Wild Card Series Games to ESPN, that seems incredibly unlikely.

Another idea that's been floated around but seems just as unlikely is further expanding the postseason to eight teams per league.  They did that in 2020 as a one-off because of the extraordinary COVID season that limited teams to just 60 games.  In a full, 162-game season, that seems unnecessary.  Not to mention the fact that the 13th-16th best teams in the Majors will have, at best, 84-85 wins max.  That rewards mediocrity (yes, the Stanley Cup Playoffs have 16 teams and the NBA has 20 if you include the Play-In Tournament, but they play half as many games as MLB).

There's an argument that Ron Darling made during the Dodgers-Diamondbacks series that I completely agree with.  He's not the only one who's made it, either.  What he said, basically, is that being the best team over 162 games is irrelevant in the current format.  It's a tournament now, and you need to have the best team for that tournament.  Sure, you need to be good enough to get in, but once you're there, how you're playing now matters much more.

That's the mentality teams need to have going into the playoffs.  Because if you were to ask any player or manager, I'm sure they'd all say that they'd rather win their division, get a bye and have a few days off rather than face a best-of-three Wild Card Series.  But the tradeoff is still finding a way to be ready to go after that break.  Otherwise, they'll suffer the same fate as the 2022-23 Braves and Dodgers and 2023 Orioles.  Being the best team from April-September only matters so much if you're not the best team in October.

So, I agree with the Commissioner.  The sample size is simply too small to make any sort of judgment about the current playoff system and whether it "works" or not.  In fact, I think the argument could be made that the first two years of the format have been proof that it does work.  The No. 6 seed in the National League, a team that wouldn't have even made the playoffs pre-2022, has reached the NLCS both times, and the sixth-seeded Phillies won the pennant last year.

Winning 100 games in the regular season is a tremendous accomplishment.  Come October, though, it guarantees you nothing.  The last two postseasons have proven that.  And the format doesn't look like it's changing anytime soon.  So, if those 100-win teams also want to win the World Series, they're gonna need to figure out how to navigate a five-day break before the Division Series.  Otherwise, the MLB Postseason will become as much of a crapshoot as the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where it's just accepted that the higher-seeded teams almost never win.