2023 Picks, Week 1

Welcome to a new NFL season and my first weekly picks post of 2023.  For those of you who are new to this, I don't care about the spread.  I only care about who actually wins the game.  The standings aren't based on who covers the spread.  They're based on who wins.

Also, while I'll pick the Thursday night game every week, I normally won't post the full selections until right before the Sunday games.  The only exceptions are Thanksgiving (for obvious reasons) and Week 1 (because that's the first game of the season).  So, then, without further ado, here we go...

Lions at Chiefs: Kansas City-There's a lot of buzz around Detroit.  So much so that the Lions were picked to play in the season kickoff game.  NFC North favorites or not, going into Arrowhead and facing the defending champs the night they raise their banner was gonna be a challenge regardless.  Last year, the Bills went into SoFi and beat the Rams on opening night, setting the stage for both of their seasons.  That won't happen to the Chiefs this year.  Even if Travis Kelce and Chris Jones don't play, they should begin their defense with a win.

Panthers at Falcons: Atlanta-My pick in the NFC South this season is Atlanta.  I can't really explain why.  On paper, both the Panthers and Saints might be a little stronger.  But I think the Falcons will surprise.  And this is their first chance to prove it.  Carolina will obviously have No. 1 pick Bryce Young under center in his debut.  Just a hunch, but I think it could be a long one.

Bengals at Browns: Cincinnati-After two straight AFC Championship Game appearances, expectations are sky-high in Cincinnati.  And rightfully so.  Of course, a lot of that depends on Joe Burrow's health.  It appears he's a go for Week 1, though, when the Bengals head north to face their instate rivals.  The Browns are one of the weaker teams in the league.  The Bengals are one of the better teams.  See where I'm going with this?

Jaguars at Colts: Jacksonville-It's crazy to think that we go into the season with Jacksonville not just favored in the AFC South, but considered one of the stronger teams across the NFL.  Of course, having said that, the Jaguars will probably end up finishing 6-11/7-10.  Even still, they're better than the Colts.  It's weird how Jacksonville always seemed to beat Indianapolis even when the Jaguars weren't good.  That alone should be enough to pick Jacksonville.

Buccaneers at Vikings: Minnesota-Last season, they were both division champions.  Minnesota won the NFC North by winning a lot of close games.  Tampa Bay won the NFC South with a sub-.500 record.  Then Tom Brady retired.  It could be a long season in Tampa.  And, I know I'm in a minority, but I'm a believer in the Vikings.  Even if I wasn't, I'd like them here.

Titans at Saints: Tennessee-I'm very interested to see what happens in this one.  The new-look Saints have Derek Carr and a weak NFC South.  The Titans started off great last season, but fell off down the stretch and Jacksonville surpassed them for the division title.  I actually wasn't sure which way to go here.  Because I can see either team winning.  Ultimately, I decided to go with the Titans, who I feel are just a bit stronger overall.

49ers at Steelers: San Francisco-San Francisco is a very popular Super Bowl pick this season, mainly because of that outstanding defense.  The 49ers begin the season with what could be a challenging trip to Pittsburgh.  This one will likely be low scoring, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a defensive touchdown or two.  In the end, though, I think San Francisco will have just enough to pull it out.

Cardinals at Commanders: Washington-Arizona is arguably the weakest team in football (although, the Texans might give them a run for their money).  Going into Washington for the season opener isn't a terrible matchup for them, and it does give them a chance to prove some of the doubters wrong.  I don't think it will, though.  After all the offseason tumult, the Commanders must be thrilled to be getting back on the field.  They'll be even more thrilled when they win their opener.

Texans at Ravens: Baltimore-Baltimore enters the season chasing Cincinnati.  Which is a little weird.  Because the Ravens nearly won the division over the Bengals last season.  Knowing where they stand, though, they have a chance to make a statement in Week 1.  At the very least, they know losing to Houston at home is something they simply cannot do.

Packers at Bears: Green Bay-For the first time in 30 years, the Packers enter a season without a future Hall of Fame quarterback (although, in fairness to Jordan Love, he might be, too).  Times were good during all those years with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.  Times will be much tougher in 2023.  Fortunately for them, they open the season against their archrivals.  The Bears are not a team that instills much confidence in me.  As a result, I've got the Packers starting 1-0.

Raiders at Broncos: Denver-Sean Payton's debut as Broncos coach comes at home against the Raiders.  It's been a while since there's been excitement in Denver (there was last season, and we saw how well that turned out).  While I'd temper those expectations a little, this is a good opening matchup for them.  There's still a lot of season left to play, but a 1-0 start is a 1-0 start.

Eagles at Patriots: Philadelphia-How will the Eagles follow up coming thisclose in the Super Bowl?  Chances are, they'll be like the Bengals, who got back to the AFC Championship Game last season.  Philadelphia is too good to come crashing down.  In fact, there are a lot of people picking a Super Bowl rematch.  They'll get their first chance to show us they shouldn't be messed with after going into Foxboro and starting the season with a win over the Patriots.

Dolphins at Chargers: Miami-The schedule-makers were very clever in putting so many games between playoff teams in Week 1.  This one is between a pair of AFC wild cards--the Dolphins and Chargers.  Last season, the Chargers reversed their trend of losing a lot of close games late, while Miami continued what it started building at the end of the 2021 season.  Which one gets 2023 started off right?  Call me crazy, but I think it'll be Miami.

Rams at Seahawks: Seattle-Can Seattle repeat last season's playoff run?  That's the big question.  The Seahawks were a bit of a surprise in 2022.  Now it's their job to do it again.  The Rams were also a bit of a surprise last season.  For the opposite reason.  That was quite a fall a year after winning the Super Bowl!  Sadly, I don't see things getting any better this year.  At least not to start.  They're not beating the Seahawks in Seattle.

Cowboys at Giants: Dallas-This was the season-opening Sunday night game every season for a while.  Then the Giants weren't good for a few years, so the NFL couldn't justify giving them a marquee spot in Week 1.  But, with them both making the playoffs last season, the matchup is back.  I've been openly skeptical about whether the Giants can repeat what they did last year, and this will be a big early test.  They've never beaten a Dak Prescott-led Cowboys team.  If they win, we'll know they're for real.  Dallas isn't as good as last year, but is still one of the better teams in the NFC.

Bills at Jets: Buffalo-Two primetime games at MetLife Stadium in Week 1.  The Monday nighter is Game 1 of the Aaron Rodgers Experience, with the Jets taking on the Bills.  Like the Lions, the new-look Jets are getting thrown right into the fire with a matchup against one of the top teams in the league.  This could be a very telling game.  Even if the Bills win, as most people expect, how good of a game will it be?  That's really what will tell us whether all this hype around the Jets is deserved or not.