2023 NFL Season Preview, Part I (AFC)

Remember last year, when all the preseason hype was about the Broncos after they traded for Russell Wilson?  Denver ended up in primetime pretty much every week in September and October, and we all saw how well that worked out.  The Broncos were bad, boring, not at all entertaining, and, as it turned out, irrelevant.  You'd think the NFL learned the error of their ways, but nope!

This year's Broncos are the New York Jets.  Aaron Rodgers made sure of that.  I get it.  He's a media circus all on his own, and him deciding he wanted to play for the Jets and nobody else only added to that.  Then they got picked to be on Hard Knocks, which, again, makes total sense.  Then they were given a ton of primetime games, which, again, was to be expected.  But this is still the Jets we're talking about.  And this is still Aaron Rodgers we're talking about.  So, let's calm down all those Super Bowl predictions.

Now, there's a big difference between the 2023 Jets and the 2022 Broncos.  This year's overhyped "it" team was at least decent last year.  So, even though the Super Bowl expectations are a bit unrealistic, it's not out of the question to think the Jets can be a playoff team.  It would be a stretch to say they can win the division over the Bills.  But 10-7 and a wild card is definitely believable.

As it is, the top four teams in the AFC haven't shown any signs of giving up their hold anytime soon.  The Chiefs, Bills, Bengals and Jaguars all have young, franchise quarterbacks.  All four won their division last year.  All four could very easily win their division again this year.  And next year.  And the year after that.  Simply put, the AFC is very top-heavy, and there doesn't seem to be many teams capable of breaking through that stranglehold.

So, with four playoff spots already spoken for, that leaves everybody else fighting for the three wild cards.  And I actually think that'll be a competitive race.  Because really, only the Browns, Texans and Colts seem like playoff longshots.  OK, maybe the Raiders, too.  But the other eight?  None of them would be surprising.

AFC East: Last season, the Bills won their third straight division title and Miami joined them in the playoffs.  There's no reason to think Buffalo won't make it four in a row.  As for the Dolphins getting a wild card again?  That's a little more up in the air.  Not because Miami is worse than last year.  Because they're really not.  It's just that other teams have gotten better and the Dolphins aren't one of the seven best in the AFC.

The Jets, however, are.  They were close enough last year that Rodgers just might be enough to put them over the top.  Again, I don't think there's any way they win the division.  I also don't see any way they don't get a wild card.  As for the Patriots, I think this could be a very similar season as last year.  They made the playoffs in 2021, just missed last season, and will likely be in that position again.  They'll finish in the 8-9/9-8/10-7 range and be in the playoff mix, but fall just short.

AFC North: I'm curious to find out what Joe Burrow's status is and how much that will affect Cincinnati's season.  Because as he goes, so go the Bengals.  And if he's out for any period of time, that puts the AFC North up for grabs.  Although, the Bengals have proven to be good enough that they can actually weather losing Burrow for a game or two.  Anything more than that, though, look out for the Ravens!

Baltimore's window is definitely closing, but it isn't closed yet, so expect them to do what they always do.  Not score a lot of points, but still find a way to win games and end up in the think of the race come December.  The Steelers, incredibly, kept up Mike Tomlin's streak of .500 seasons last year when no one thought they would.  Is there any reason to think it won't continue this season?  Then there's the Cleveland Browns.  They surprised me last season by not being as bad as I thought they would.  My expectations aren't high again.

AFC South: It's crazy that we're talking about the start of a potential Jacksonville Jaguars dynasty, right?  This is a team that had the No. 1 pick in back-to-back years, and now suddenly we're talking about them as a consistent contender.  Why?  Because of what they did down the stretch last season to win the division, then what they did in their first playoff game against the Chargers.  Throw in the fact that they're in a weak division, and suddenly it doesn't sound so crazy.

Of course, another reason for the Jaguars' ascendance is because of how badly the Titans struggled last December and January.  I can easily see Tennessee bouncing back, though.  That Jaguars-Titans game in Nashville in Week 18 could be for the division.  The Colts and Texans, meanwhile, are both on the "not good" list.  They seem far likelier to compete for the No. 1 pick (and the chance to draft the USC quarterback) than the AFC South title.

AFC West: Unlike last year, when bringing in Russell Wilson only served to make the Broncos worse, Sean Payton's presence in Denver actually will make a massive difference.  The Broncos' last playoff game was Super Bowl 50, and their fan base has been starved for a winner ever since then.  The payoff won't come this season, but they'll be much closer to what they used to be.  And, if they can win some of those close games, they could be in the mix.

Kansas City is still the kings of this division, though.  And that ain't changing anytime soon.  The Chiefs' current run sure reminds you of the Brady Patriots, doesn't it?  Does anyone actually expect them NOT to win the AFC West and put up a 13-4/14-3 record again?  If the Chargers can do it again, I'll be impressed.  Last season, they finally won all of those close games and made the playoffs.  The either win them and go 10-7 or lose them and go 8-9.  Should be the same thing again.  The Raiders will have a completely different look now that they've moved on from Derek Carr.  They aren't as good as the other three teams in the division, though, so I'm expecting the only playoff game played in Las Vegas to be the Super Bowl.

Playoff Seeds: 1. Chiefs (14-3), 2. Bills (12-5), 3. Bengals (11-6), 4. Jaguars (10-7), 5. Ravens (10-7), 6. Jets (10-7), 7. Titans (9-8)
Yes, a lot of that looks awfully familiar.  There's a reason for that.  Until those four are knocked off their perch, it's a safe bet to think they'll do it again.  Which could make for a fun January!  And, come January, expect the AFC's top team to continue its run.  The Chiefs go back to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years.