US Open Time

Last year's US Open was really Carlos Alcaraz's coming out party.  Novak Djokovic wasn't there because he wasn't allowed to enter the country, and Alcaraz, who everyone had a feeling would be the next big thing in men's tennis, capitalized and won his first Grand Slam title.  He soon rose to No. 1 in the world and beat Djokovic in the Wimbledon final.  So, yeah, it looks like even without Roger and Rafa, Nole's still got a rival.

Believe it or not, it's actually been five years since Djokovic won the US Open.  In 2021, he was going for the Grand Slam when he lost to Daniil Medvedev in the final.  In 2020, he was disqualified after hitting a line judge with a ball.  In 2019, he hurt his shoulder and had to retire in his fourth-round match.  This year, we thought he might be coming to Flushing Meadows looking for his all-time record 25th Grand Slam singles title.  That won't happen, but he can still tie Margaret Court by winning his 24th.

This obviously isn't the first time Djokovic has come into the US Open with a chance to make history.  I think the difference this year, though, is that he isn't the prohibitive favorite.  And not just because of defending champion Alcaraz.  There's also Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud and the Americans--Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul and Chris Eubanks.  I actually think that's a good thing for Djokovic.

But count Novak Djokovic out at your own peril.  Especially since he wasn't able to compete last year.  And, let's not forget, he's made the final here nine times!  That sometimes gets lost because he's only won three titles, but Djokovic has played in 16 US Opens and made the final in nine of them (and lost in the semis in three others).  So, we know he's gonna be around until the end.  The question is whether he'll win the seventh match and make history.

Frankly, I'm not sure he does.  I do think Djokovic makes it to yet another US Open final, but I'm actually not picking him to win it.  I'm not picking either of the last two champions, Alcaraz or Medvedev, either.  Nope, instead I'm going with Alexander Zverev.  I've long been high on Zverev, who made the final here in 2020 and won the Olympic gold a year later (when he beat Djokovic in the semifinals).  He, too, is returning to the US Open after missing the 2022 tournament.

For the first time in a long time, I actually feel really good about the American men at the US Open, too.  And it's not just one or two guys, either.  Frances Tiafoe had that incredible semifinal run last year.  Then Tommy Paul made the semis in Australia and Chris Eubanks reached the quarters at Wimbledon.  Taylor Fritz is the only one who hasn't made the deep Grand Slam run, but he's actually the highest-ranked American and seeded ninth.  Unfortunately for Fritz, though, he's in Djokovic's quarter.

The top half of the draw is actually far stronger.  Which is why I think Djokovic loses the final to whoever comes out of the more competitive side.  Zverev could have, in order, the winner of Andy Murray/Grigor Dimitrov, then Stan Wawrinka or Jannik Sinner, then Alcaraz, then whoever comes out of the Russian quarter (Medvedev, Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov are all in the same section, and they're all strong hardcourt players).  So, whoever comes out of that top half is gonna earn it.  And I think that'll be Zverev.

On the women's side, the 2022 US Open turned into a Serena Williams farewell party.  And rightfully so.  Serena announced her "transition away from tennis' (don't call it "retirement") after the tournament, and she provided one last memorable moment with that second-round victory over Anett Kontaveit (fun fact: I was at the Bianca Andreescu match in Louis Armstrong Stadium during that match).  She lost in the next round, officially ushering us into the post-Serena Era.

In 2023, we welcome back Caroline Wozniacki.  Woz came back from a three-year retirement at the Canadian Open, and she's playing in her first Grand Slam event since the 2020 Australian Open.  Do I expect her to make a deep run?  Absolutely not.  But it's great to see her back.  And I am curious to see how far she advances.

Wozniacki isn't the only veteran in the field.  Victoria Azarenka has always played well at the US Open and is the No. 18 seed this year.  Venus Williams, though, is playing in her 24th US Open.  She made it to at least the semis in each of her first six appearances (1997-2002), but hasn't won a US Open match since 2019.  So what?  We don't know how many more times we'll get to see her on the blue courts of Flushing Meadows, so let's savor the experience (and I actually think she's got a decent chance to win in the first round).

As for who's actually favorites among the women, you've gotta start with defending champion Iga Swiatek.  She's the best player in the world right now.  It's as simple as that.  Swiatek defended her French Open title, then had her best-ever result at Wimbledon, making the quarterfinals.  She's the one to beat.

I also think this could be Jessica Pegula's chance for a Grand Slam breakthrough.  At No. 3, she's the highest-ranked American player (man or woman).  In the last eight Grand Slam tournaments, going back to the 2021 US Open, she's made the quarterfinals of five and lost in the third round at the other three.  She's never reached a Grand Slam semi in singles.  I can definitely see that changing here.

Pegula's quarterfinal opponent could very well be Caroline Garcia, who made the semis last year.  That sort of came out of nowhere, so it'll be interesting to see if it was just a fluke.  But, Garcia is seeded seventh here, so it's not crazy to think she could do it again.  Same with fifth-seeded Ons Jabeur, last year's finalist and a finalist at Wimbledon in both 2022 and 2023.  Her first Grand Slam title can't be too far away.

There have been eight different US Open women's champions in the last nine years.  Due to a variety of reasons (retirement, injury, pregnancy), seven of those eight aren't in the field.  In fact, the only former women's champions in this year's tournament are Iga Swiatek and Venus Williams (whose last US Open title came 22 years ago!).  There hasn't been a repeat winner since Serena won three in a row from 2012-14.  That'll change this year.  Swiatek wins a second straight US Open title.