RIP: Conference of Champions

Well, that sure happened quick, didn't it?  After a whirlwind 48 hours, the Pac-12/10/9/4, the "Conference of Champions," is on the brink of extinction.  A turn of events that was simultaneously both entirely unbelievable and totally predictable.  And that's why I don't feel bad for the Pac-12/10/9/4 about its imminent demise.  Because they should've seen it coming, but they didn't.  So, this is really no one's fault but their own.

I've said this all before, and I'll say it again.  The Pac-12/10/9/4 severely overvalued its brand.  They thought they'd be able to weather the storm after losing UCLA and USC.  So, instead of seeking replacements, they went to work on a TV deal that was never going to be what they thought it would.  Not after losing two marquee programs in a major market and doing nothing about it.  That was the beginning of the end.

They were so confident that the TV deal would leave everyone happy once it was finally completed.  So happy, in fact, that they'd forget about the months of waiting for the more attractive offer that never came.  Once the deal finally was presented, the schools were anything but happy.  And who could blame them?  They saw the Big Ten, SEC and Big XII all add members and sign TV contracts that will bring the schools millions annually.  Meanwhile, the best the Pac-12/10/9/4 could do was a subscription-based, streaming-heavy deal with Apple?!

Even after Colorado left to go back to the Big XII, there was still some confidence that the remaining Pac-12/9/4 programs would stick together.  That confidence evaporated once Arizona went into serious talks with the Big XII.  Then Oregon and Washington with the Big Ten.  Then, with the writing clearly on the wall, Utah and Arizona State decided to go with Arizona and Colorado to the Big XII, leaving the Pac-12/9/4 on life support with just four remaining members.

There have long been predictions that the football-focused conference realignment would result in one of the Power 5 conferences being absorbed by the others.  For a while, it looked like that might be the Big XII.  But the Big XII not only ensured its survival despite the loss of Texas and Oklahoma, arguably its two biggest programs, it's coming out of this stronger.  They jumped the line in negotiating their TV contract and are probably in a better position than the ACC moving forward.

After adding four teams this season, they're adding four more next season, and the Big XII will become the Big XVI.  The SEC will also be at 16 members, while the ACC will be at 15.  The Big Ten, meanwhile, will become the largest conference in the country, a coast-to-coast behemoth with 18 members.  And don't be surprised if they stop there.  I can easily see the Big Ten+8 adding two more becoming the Big Ten x 2.  Especially since there are some unhappy ACC programs.  (Or would they go for Stanford and Cal to give them a presence in San Francisco?)

What's funny is that while this seemed inevitable eventually, none of the conferences wanted to be responsible for it happening.  Even all the realignment and the "poaching," nobody wanted to see another conference completely disappear as a result.  Yet that's exactly what's about to happen.

Where Cal, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State go from here is unclear.  (The fact that Stanford has never even been considered in all of this realignment still boggles my mind, but that's a completely separate issue!)  The four of them have vowed to stick together, but they also heard that from their former conference rivals.  This is no longer about the conference's survival.  This is an everybody for themselves situation.

The most logical thought is some sort of merger or partnership with the Mountain West (something I suggested as a possibility a few months ago).  The Mountain West seems receptive to the idea.  And why wouldn't they?  Stanford's a national brand and, even though it's just the leftovers from a conference that's been thoroughly picked apart, the four of them would make an already strong league even better. 

Most significantly, it would bring the Mountain Pac's membership to 15 (plus Hawaii in football).  SMU had already been dangled as a possibility for the Pac-12/10/9/4.  Would a combined Mountain Pac also look to the Mustangs, which would get them to that magic number of 16 while also giving them a presence in Dallas?

Should that merger go ahead, how will the new conference look?  The Mountain West is the one with the leverage.  They don't have an expiring TV deal.  They have 11 members.  Who will have to pay a massive exit fee if they leave before the 2024-25 season.  Meanwhile, it's the Pac-4 who don't have a home or a TV contract.  They need the Mountain West more than the Mountain West needs them.

So, what do the Pac-4 bring to the table then?  They bring the Pac-(insert number) name.  Which, even though it clearly doesn't mean as much as it once did, still has a lot of value.  There's 100 years of history and that "Conference of Champions" moniker.  The Pac-4 will likely go into any merger talks wanting to keep the name.  Whether that happens or not is a different question.

Another thing worth considering is the structure of the 12-team College Football Playoff.  The top six conference champions will receive an automatic bid when the CFP expands next season.  That expansion was designed to give each of the Power 5 and one additional conference champion a spot.  With no Pac-12, there's only four.  And, outside of those four, the Mountain Pac will be the strongest of the remaining conferences.  It's not hard to envision their champion ending up in the CFP every year.

That's the craziest thing about all of this.  The Big Ten and Pac-10 had their longstanding relationship with each other and the Rose Bowl going back decades.  Yet it was the Big Ten that effectively began that process that resulted in the dismantling of the Pac-10.  Was that their intent?  Certainly not.  But the Big Ten adding UCLA and USC out of nowhere is what set all of this in motion.

Don't think I'm blaming the Big Ten+8 for any of this.  Again, I think the blame lies squarely on the Pac-4's shoulders.  More specifically, the Pac-4 leadership.  They saw what was happening and knew the sharks were circling, yet they did nothing about it until it was too late.  When the Big XVI was under threat, they acted aggressively to ensure their survival.  The Pac-4, meanwhile, made a series of missteps that hastened their demise.

Would this have still happened had the Pac-12/10/9/4 actually done the smart thing and added San Diego State a year ago when it should've?  It's hard to say.  I think it would've been less likely, though.  Instead, we're sitting here talking about the demise of the Pac-12/10/9/4.  A demise that easily could've been avoided.