Move Back the Deadline

Baseball used to have two trade deadlines.  There was the regular, non-waiver deadline at the end of July/beginning of August and a second deadline at the end of August.  Players had to be on the roster before September 1 to be playoff-eligible, so we'd often still see significant movement in the month of August.  That's actually how the Astros got Justin Verlander the first time, and it was also in August when the Red Sox and Dodgers pulled off that massive nine-player trade with Adrian Gonzalez as the centerpiece.

That second deadline was convoluted and confusing, though.  Players could only be traded if they cleared waivers, and teams could pull that player back if they didn't want to trade him to the team that made the waiver claim.  It was also kind of ridiculous that the "trade deadline" wasn't actually the trade deadline.  So, they removed the second deadline a few years ago and now there's just the one trade deadline.  Nobody's clamoring for the second deadline to come back, but moving the single deadline back a couple weeks could definitely be something worth considering.

The current timing of the trade deadline gives teams two months with whoever they acquire.  That's roughly 55 games.  That sounds like plenty, and 55 games is definitely enough to make a run.  However, teams also need to decide whether they're buyers or sellers at the end of July, and a lot can happen between the end of July and mid-August.

Simply put, July 31 is too early for teams to make that decision.  That's especially true when you consider the fact that 12 of the 30 teams now make the playoffs.  Very few teams are truly out of it at the All*Star break, and the trade deadline is just two weeks later.  Yes, everybody's more than 100 games into the season by that point, but so teams many are still "in contention," even if their chances are slim, that there will be so many buyers and not enough sellers, as well as GMs and owners who need to justify their movement/non-movement at the deadline.

At the All*Star break, there are only a handful of teams that are truly out of it.  That's not gonna change two weeks later at the trade deadline, and those are the only teams you know will be sellers.  The expanded playoffs are great for giving more teams hope down the stretch, but it has also made the trade deadline significantly harder.  Because two months is a third of the season!  That's an awful lot of time still!  Especially when you're close and can't really decide if you're good enough to make the playoffs and, if you're not, if making a trade would change those odds.

Two weeks later, the playoff picture is much clearer.  Which is why an August 15 trade deadline would be better and make much more sense.  Instead of two months, players will have six weeks with their new team.  Yes, six weeks is "only" about 40 games, but that's still enough to make a difference.  And, more importantly, more teams will know where they actually stand and have a more realistic picture of their playoff chances in the middle of August.

Let's look at just a few examples from this season to illustrate my point.  The Angels were dangling Ohtani for a little while, then got close enough to the wild card that they decided to become buyers, acquiring Lucas Giolito from the White Sox and both Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron from the Rockies.  They proceeded to immediately lose seven in a row, fell below .500, and were surpassed by the Mariners in the standings.

Speaking of the Mariners, they didn't really do much of anything other than shipping closer Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks.  Seattle lost to Boston on August 1, then went on a nine-game winning streak to move within striking distance of the third wild card.  Think they might've approached the deadline differently if it was two weeks later?

Now let's take the Yankees, an incredibly flawed team that's trying to convince itself that it's a playoff contender, yet did absolutely nothing at the break to actually improve the team.  (Sorry...they got reliever Keynan Middleton, who's clearly the missing piece!)  Doubling down on a last-place roster was one thing.  In the two weeks since then, the Yankees' rotation has been completely decimated by injuries, and thinking about the playoffs is nothing more than a delusion at this point!

For argument's sake, let's say the Yankees still had a realistic chance at the playoffs.  In the last two weeks, their need for starting pitching has become urgent.  They'd be in the market for at least one, probably two starters right now.  That wasn't the case (at least the need wasn't as urgent) on July 31.

Last season, the Padres made a splash at the deadline and rode the additions of Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader to the NLCS.  They were the preseason favorites in the NL West this year, but instead have been right up there with the Yankees and Mets as one of the most disappointing teams in baseball.  Like the Yankees, the Padres also didn't do anything at the deadline, thinking they were still within striking distance.

San Diego is 2-7 in its last nine games and has fallen 5.5 back in the NL wild card race.  More significantly, there are three teams between the Padres and Marlins, who currently hold the third NL wild card.  Can they still make a run?  Sure.  Is it likely?  No.  And, with that in mind, would they theoretically be more willing to listen to offers for Hader (or Blake Snell) now than they were at the beginning of the month?  Probably.

Then there's the Cubs.  They were in the same boat as the Angels, dangling Cody Bellinger before pulling him back.  They also added a piece, picking up Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario, but didn't do anything else.  They were in a kind-of in-between place.  Not close enough to go for it, not far enough out to be sellers.  Two weeks later, they're very much still in it--just a half-game out of the last NL wild card.  If they'd had those extra two weeks to assess their team and make trades, you can bet they'd have been aggressive buyers!

Nobody wants the second trade deadline to come back.  It was too confusing for the casual fan.  Players can't get traded after a certain date.  Period.  What I do think, though, is that date should be later.  Making it two weeks later and moving the deadline to August 15 (or thereabouts) could make a massive difference.  I'm not saying they should definitely do it.  But it's certainly worth considering.