Interesting Alternatives

Ever since the Pac-12 imploded around them last week, Stanford, Cal, Washington State and Oregon State have been in survival mode.  The four of them know there's urgency to their situation, too.  A four-team conference not only isn't viable, it wouldn't meet the NCAA minimum for number of schools to qualify for postseason play (although, conferences can sometimes get a waiver if they temporarily dip below, but have new members joining).  So, they have to do something--and fast--to secure their status for 2024-25 and beyond.

What's interesting is that, while they were all left out in the cold by last week's turn of events, suddenly they appear to have multiple options each.  The four of them have stressed that, if possible, they'd like to stick together in a reimagined Pac-#.  But, as last week proved, this is everybody for themselves.  And their best option might not necessarily be sticking together.

As ridiculous as it sounds, the Stanford and Cal to the ACC option actually does seem like the most viable.  Yes, having two schools in the Pacific time zone playing in the Atlantic Coast Conference makes absolutely no sense on paper!  But, as we saw last week, conferences don't seem to care much about geography and travel anymore.  ("We're getting all this football TV money!  So what if the volleyball team will be spending every other weekend at an airport to go play a conference road match?!")

The ACC had discussions about Stanford and Cal almost immediately after the Pac-12 disintegrated.  Notre Dame, in particular, really wants Stanford, who they already play annually in football.  (As I've said repeatedly, it blows my mind how all this realignment happened, yet nobody went after Stanford, which has a ton of sports, is good at most of them, is great academically, and is located in San Francisco.)  Stanford and Cal would seem to be a package deal, which they almost have to be, since adding only one wouldn't work logistically for any conference, especially one on the complete other side of the country!

Stanford and Cal aren't the only schools that were discussed, either.  SMU, which was also a reported expansion target of the Pac-4, has been mentioned as having talks with the ACC, as well.  Those talks have evidently hit "significant roadblocks," however.  So, whether it happens remains to be seen.  Because the ACC knows it could be next, so making moves now to solidify the conference would be prudent.  Especially since Florida State has made it known they're not happy in the ACC right now!

Next season, the SEC and Big XVI will both have 16 members, while the Big Ten + 8 will be an 18-team behemoth!  And you can bet the SEC will want to get to 18 itself eventually, with Florida State and Clemson as the obvious targets.  The ACC, meanwhile, only will only have 15, the fewest members of the Power 4.  So, adding Stanford, Cal and SMU wouldn't just help them keep pace numbers-wise, it would also be a bit of a backup should they lose Florida State and Clemson.

Even though it looks like ACC thing has fallen through, Stanford and Cal might have another option.  The option that has been the most logical and obvious all along.  The Mountain West.  They've expressed interest in adding all of the remaining Pac-4 schools.  Since they seem to be the only ones willing to take Oregon State and Washington State, it looks like that's where the Beavers and Cougars are headed either way.  Or are they?

One of the more interesting scenarios I've seen thrown out there is that the four of them try to recruit some new members and rebuild the Pac-#.  The Mountain West's exit fee would make it difficult for any of those schools to depart next season (which was the biggest issue with San Diego State's will they or won't they about leaving), so it would seem they'd need some sort of transitional plan before they can add Mountain West teams in 2025-26.  That could simply be adding the Texas schools from the American (SMU and Rice) before bringing in the Mountain West program to get to a viable number.

Speaking of the American, despite just adding six schools from Conference USA (to replace the three that left for the Big XII), they've publicly expressed their openness to bringing in all of the remaining Pac-4 members.  Is that an option?  Sure!  Is it their best option?  I don't think so.  Especially since the Mountain West is both a stronger league and a league that would require significantly less travel.  Which is an important consideration when you take into account how much revenue they stand to lose by not being in a Power 5 conference.

That's an interesting factor at play here, too.  Stanford's coach has said he can't envision not playing Power 5 football.  Except Stanford's not in a Power 5 conference at the moment!  And, even if they can somehow keep the Pac-# alive, they won't be next season.  Could a Mountain West with the Pac-4 schools added eventually reach that level?  Yes.  But, if Stanford wants to remain a "Power 5" football team, there is another option.  They could do what BYU did.

BYU left the Mountain West to become independent in football and a member of the West Coast Conference in everything else.  That setup worked very well for them for more than a decade until they joined the Big XII in this summer's round of expansion.  It could easily work for Stanford, too.

Ordinarily I wouldn't advocate being an independent, but that could actually be Stanford's best move.  They could join a non-football conference like the West Coast Conference or Big West in everything else and play football as an independent, which would give them complete control over their schedule.  Stanford already plays Notre Dame every year and, you would assume, would also keep its annual matchup with Cal.  And, with no conference games to worry about, they could continue playing all of the other West Coast schools and not have to regularly deal with ridiculous coast-to-coast travel.

I'm not saying that's what Stanford should do.  I'm just saying it's an option that only they have the luxury of having.  The other three need to find a conference.  Ideally, all four of them will be able to stay together somewhere.  Or maybe they end up in different leagues.  What they've got to figure out is what's best for themselves.  And quickly.

Ultimately, I think the four should really be considered as two pairs.  Cal and Stanford as one pair, Oregon State and Washington State as the other.  With the ACC thing falling through for Cal and Stanford, the most likely scenario still seems to be all four joining the Mountain West.  But don't count out the possibility of Cal and Stanford going to one conference while Oregon State and Washington State join another.