To Trade Ohtani Or Not to Trade Ohtani

With a little more than a week left until the MLB trade deadline, the big question is whether the Angels will move Shohei Ohtani or not.  He's a free agent at the end of the season and it seems unlikely he'll stay with the Angels.  And there are obviously plenty of contenders who'd be interested, all of whom would become instant World Series favorites should they acquire Ohtani.  But will any of them get that chance?

This isn't like last season, when everyone knew the Nationals were gonna move Juan Soto and it was really just a matter of who ended up getting him.  That team turned out to be the Padres, who turned around and signed Soto to a long-term deal.  Should Ohtani get traded at the deadline, though, there's no guarantee he'd be anything more than a rental for whoever lands him.  Especially when you consider how much money he's gonna command as a free agent this winter.

While unlikely, the far more plausible scenario is that the Angels do something similar to what the Yankees did in 2016.  That year, the Yankees traded Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for a prospect haul that included Gleyber Torres, only to re-sign him in the offseason.  The Cubs got what they wanted out of the deal, winning their first World Series in 108 years, and the Yankees got Gleyber Torres out of letting them borrow their closer for two months.

For the Angels, there are positives and negatives to both decisions.  Ohtani isn't just a generational star.  He's a once-in-a-lifetime talent.  So he'd demand quite a haul.  But they'd also have to explain why they traded away such a unique player, even if it benefitted the franchise in the long run.  It's not an easy position to be in.

Should the Angels decide that, yes, they're gonna trade him, they can essentially name their price.  I'd imagine it'd require at least one current Major Leaguer (probably two), the team's first- or second-rated prospect (or both) and another highly-rated prospect or two.  That's at a minimum.  There are probably only a few teams that would even be willing to meet that asking price, but, should they make him available, you know somebody will.  Perhaps multiple teams.  Which would give the Angels a chance to decide which offer they like better.

I can see the logic and benefit in that.  If you don't think you'll be able to re-sign him, you might as well get something for him.  And that something would be reloading the farm system, which could have major long-term dividends.  Just ask the Rays, Astros and Orioles about the importance of having young, controllable talent that's close to Major League ready.

Likewise, getting Ohtani off the books would give the Angels a chance to reset.  They've been all about Trout and Ohtani for so long, but what has it gotten them?  They've made the playoffs once in Trout's career (and got swept in the Division Series) and haven't been there at all since they've had both of them.  This is Ohtani's sixth season BTW!  Their fans obviously wouldn't want to hear that, but it's not exactly like having arguably the two best players in baseball has been working.  So, can things really be any worse if they don't have both of them?

Since Ohtani is essentially two players, the Angels would need two players to replace him.  Or would they?  Their situation designed to accommodate him is very unique.  They use a six-man rotation instead of the typical five.  More significantly, he's a full-time DH when not pitching, so they can't give their other regulars DH days.  You move Ohtani, suddenly your pitchers are on a more-regular schedule and you can give the rest of your lineup half-days off by DHing them.  Which would be huge for guys like Trout and Anthony Rendon should they ever return for injury.

Now for the negatives.  First and foremost, trading Ohtani is essentially waiving the white flag on this season.  And they're within striking distance of the wild card, so why trade your best player when you still have a realistic chance at the playoffs?  How realistic is certainly up for debate, especially with Trout once again on an extended IL stint, but it's still realistic enough.  You wouldn't be sending that message just to the fans, either.  I'm sure there would be plenty of guys in that Angels clubhouse who'd feel the same way.

Then there are the economic implications.  The Angels are a popular draw, both at home and on the road.  Why?  Because people want to see Ohtani!  So, if Ohtani's the reason they sell tickets, what incentive would those fans have to attend an Angels game once he's gone?  Some are fans of the team and would obviously still go, but you'd figure those numbers would take a massive hit without Ohtani.  Which would then trickle down to everything else.

Perhaps more significantly, every Angels game is broadcast live in Japan.  They also have a bunch of Japanese sponsors.  Those deals are probably locked in for the rest of the season, so there won't be an immediate hit.  But moving forward, that's a massive source of revenue they can kiss goodbye!  And the Japanese media caring about them would instantly cease.  They'd move on to whatever team Ohtani gets traded to and go back to ignoring the Angels entirely.

And, no matter how you spin it, trading Ohtani would be a massive PR hit.  No one would look at the prospect haul or the unlikelihood of keeping him once he becomes a free agent or anything else.  They'd simply look at the fact that the Angels traded away Shohei Ohtani.  The reason would not matter.  Arte Moreno would go into the same category as Harry Frazee, the Red Sox owner who sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees a century ago.

Ultimately, I don't think the Angels will trade Shohei Ohtani, nor do I think they should.  Plenty of teams will go after him and offer them attractive packages of both prospects and Major Leaguers, but it won't be enough to convince them.  Ohtani is too valuable a property for the Angels to just give him away.  Even if they're going nowhere.

Whether they have a chance of keeping him in the offseason is an entirely different conversation.  And it's not one that should dictate what the Angels do with Shohei Ohtani at the trade deadline.  Trading him may make perfect sense.  Not trading him makes more.