Buffs Pac-ing Up And Leaving

It appears that the Pac-12/10/9's long-awaited TV deal, the one that has been promised for months, is finally ready to be presented to the schools.  Unfortunately for the conference, which dragged its feet for the better part of a year, that proved to be too long.  Because Colorado got impatient.  And now, Colorado is gone as a result, back to the Big 12 from whence they came a decade ago.

Oh, how the roles have shifted for those two leagues!  The Pac-10 was operating from a position of strength when it added Colorado and Utah in 2011-12.  The Big 12 was left reeling and was similarly gutted a few years ago when Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving for the SEC.  Then they signed their massive new TV contract, added four new members, and suddenly it was the Big 12 in the position of power.  And they took advantage of it.

Colorado's official reasons for rejoining the Big 12 all make sense and are true.  Travel is definitely easier, and the game times are better when they're not going to the West Coast for every road game.  There are certainly competitive reasons, too.  Their football team is getting attention for the splashy hire of Deion Sanders as head coach, but hasn't been good basically since joining the Pac-12. 

Let's be honest, though.  That all may be true.  But they left because of the money.  They were tired of waiting for the Pac-12/10/9's TV deal and knew what they could get by going back to the Big 12.  So, they called the Pac-12/10/9's bluff.  And, if the Pac-12/10/9 wasn't already reeling, it definitely is now!  Waiting to finish the TV contract (and taking so long to get it done) has cost them big time and the vultures are already circling.

Paul Finebaum, the respected college football analyst who has a daily show on the SEC Network, has predicted that the Pac-12/10/9 will no longer be a power conference after this season.  I'm not willing to go that far, yet.  But if this trend continues, it's not hard to envision that prediction coming true.  Especially since the Big 12 and Big Ten don't seem to be done expanding.  Which means the Pac-12/10/9 needs to act yesterday to ensure its future.

They should've been on the phone with San Diego State the second the rumors about Colorado started.  Frankly, they should've been on the phone extending an invitation last summer once the UCLA/USC news broke.  It's absolutely ridiculous that San Diego State, a perfect fit in every way who actually wants to join the conference, hasn't been invited to join yet.  And now San Diego State can't join until after the 2024-25 season!

San Diego State is about to become the prettiest girl at the dance.  They're the most attractive program not currently in a major conference, and they're gonna have plenty of suitors.  They're such an obvious choice for the Pac-12/10/9, but the conference ended up screwing itself with its decision to wait until the TV contract was done before expanding.  Because now San Diego State's gonna have its pick of conferences.  And the Pac-12/10/9 suddenly doesn't make as much sense for them as it did a year ago.

The Pac-12/10/9 hasn't done San Diego State any favors with its delay, either.  The Aztecs were all set to leave the Mountain West, anticipating their Pac-12/10/9 invite.  Except the invite never came, San Diego State had that prolonged "did they officially leave the Mountain West or not?" saga, and they ended up committing to their current conference for the next two seasons.  They could theoretically leave at the end of the 2023-24 school year, but the exit fee would be exorbitant.  So, they're stuck.

According to some reports, it wasn't just because of the delay on the TV contract that San Diego State hasn't been offered Pac-12/10/9 membership yet.  Evidently, not every Pac-12/10/9 school is on board with a larger conference.  Oregon, especially, doesn't want to share any media rights 12 ways instead of 10.  The Ducks also think qualifying for the College Football Playoff will be easier in a 10-team conference than a 12-team league.

That was when Colorado was the 10th member.  Now they're down to nine.  Now they don't have a choice on expansion.  At the very least, the Pac-12/10/9 needs to bring in San Diego State and get back to 10.  Ideally, they'll bring in multiple teams to get back to 12 or even 14.  I've heard SMU, Colorado State and UNLV also mentioned as possibilities.  (A school I'd love to see them go after is Hawaii.)  Either way, the Pac-12/10/9 has two choices--expand or get picked apart and cease to be a conference entirely.

If that sounds all gloom and doom, that's the idea.  And, frankly, the Pac-12/10/9 has put itself in this position.  They could've done what the Big 12 did in response to Texas and Oklahoma leaving.  The Big 12 aggressively sought out new members, brought in four really good ones, and is actually in a much stronger position now.  As evidence by the fact that Colorado decided that their situation would be significantly improved if they returned to the Big 12, regardless of what the Pac-12/10/9's media deal ends up looking like.

Even that media deal might not be enough to save the Pac-12/10/9.  The conference badly overplayed its hand.  They perceived themselves as being in a position of strength that they clearly were not.  The conference lost its two biggest properties in the second-largest media market in the country, which immediately decreased the value of any media rights deal.  Then they didn't replace them.  They were hoping that they'd get something comparable to the other conferences, but that was never gonna happen.  Especially as it dragged out longer, those other leagues signed their deals, and the Pac-12/10/9 became a less and less desirable product.

Now the conference is down to only nine teams.  And not only is it less game inventory, it's game inventory that's nowhere near as attractive.  By dragging its feet on both the media rights deal and expansion, the Pac-12/10/9 has put itself in a worse position.  It went from arguably No. 5 among the Power 5 schools to definitively No. 5.  And, frankly, it's not even close!  There might even be some Group of 5 conferences that are stronger (and the Big East certainly is in basketball).

So, can you really blame Colorado then?  They saw the writing on the wall.  A decade ago, they saw the benefit of leaving the Big 12 for the Pac-12.  Now they see more benefit in going back.  And the Big 12 is welcoming them back with open arms.  I guess it turns out you can go home again.