Different Events for the World Champs

Most of the U.S. team for next month's World Championships in Budapest will be selected at this weekend's USATF Outdoor Championships.  It's the hardest team in the world to make, especially in certain events, so the competition for the three spots should be intense.  Except this year it might be a little easier in others.  All because of how good the U.S. team did while hosting Worlds last year.

In Eugene, 10 Americans won gold medals in individual events.  Since defending champions are given a bye into the next World Championships, all 10 just need to show up to Nationals to claim their automatic berth.  Make that 11.  Because Valarie Allman also gets one as the Diamond League champion in the women's discus.  (Kara Winger won the Diamond League title in the women's javelin, but retired after last year.)

That means the U.S. will be sending four athletes to Worlds in nearly one-third of the events!  And, because those defending champions are already qualified, many of them won't run their primary event at Nationals.  Noah Lyles has a bye in the 200, so he's only running the 100.  Sydney McLaughlin hasn't run the 400 hurdles all year.  She's running the open 400 (and could easily make the team), then will decide which event to enter at Worlds, where she'll only do one, not both.

For Lyles and McLaughlin, this could be a preview of what they plan to do next summer in Paris.  Lyles wants to run both the 100 and 200 at the Olympics.  Next year, he'll have to run both at Trials.  This year, he can focus on the 100 at Nationals and, assuming he makes the team, still do both in Budapest.

McLaughlin will almost certainly switch from the 400 hurdles to the open 400 eventually.  Probably sooner rather than later.  I actually think she will make the team in the 400, and I'd love to see her do the double.  She's already said she won't at Worlds, and, while it'll theoretically be possible in Paris, the events do overlap, so she probably won't be able to do it at the Olympics.  Which is a shame.  Because it would really be something special if she could (the same goes for Femke Bol, who won both the 400 and 400 hurdles at last year's European Championships).

They're not the only ones who can take it "easy" at Nationals.  Fred Kerley is the defending champ in the 100, so he'll only run the 200.  Michael Norman won the 400 at Worlds last year.  He's been battling an injury, but he just has to show up at Nationals to claim his spot.  Norman's entered in the 100 and 200, and I wouldn't be surprised if he only runs the first round of one and that's it.  Athing Mu, meanwhile, will run the 1500 instead of the 800.

Some of the World Champions will be in their signature events, but they can let it loose without the pressure of having to qualify.  Which means look out for what Ryan Crouser might do in the men's shot put!  And you know Grant Holloway wants to send a message in the men's 110 hurdles!  The women's shot put is so deep that Chase Ealey could easily not even make the top three at Nationals (which she doesn't need to) and still medal at Worlds.

Then there are the events where the U.S. doesn't have the defending World or Diamond League champion.  Events like the women's 100 hurdles, where I have no idea who'll make the team because there are like seven women who could!  And the women's 100, which has about six potential World finalists.  Two of the spots in the women's 200 are probably already claimed by Gabby Thomas and Abby Steiner, but who'll get the other one?  And if McLaughlin makes it in the 400 (which she very well could), which event will she choose?

On the men's side, it's the events where the U.S. does get to send four that look the most intriguing.  The Americans swept the medals in the 100 at Worlds last year.  That sweep did not include Christian Coleman.  And now you're throwing in Noah Lyles, too.  And, since Kerley's not running the 100 at Nationals, fourth place still only gets you relay duty.  Like the women's 100 hurdles, the men's 110 hurdles will see at least two guys who could be World medalists left home, and that's with fourth place getting a spot, since Holloway will probably race the final.

Crouser's on another planet, and Joe Kovacs is probably the second-best shot putter on the planet.  The U.S. gets two other spots, though.  Who will snag them?  The U.S. will also have four spots in the women's pole vault for the first time.  Katie Moon's in as the defending champ.  Unless something crazy happens, there's no way Sandi Morris won't be top three.  Which two ladies will join them in Budapest?

I'm also curious to see how much of an impact the scheduling has.  This is the first time World Athletics has designated a dedicated window for countries to hold their National Championships.  There's another one later this month for the countries that would prefer to have theirs a little closer to Worlds.  U.S. Nationals have typically been at the end of June, so moving them back a week shouldn't be that big a deal.  It's an extra week for the college athletes who competed at the NCAA Championships, though.  (Next year's Olympic Trials will probably straddle the late June-early July window since the Olympics start at the end of July.)

Last year, Worlds were so early and so close to Nationals time-wise (and in the same location) that athletes didn't have to worry about peaking twice.  Heck, the collegians could just peak for NCAAs in mid-June and carry that through to Worlds a month later.  This year, there's six weeks.  Which is another huge benefit for the 11 athletes with World Championships byes.  They don't have to peak twice (or hold their peak).  They're already on the team.

Do I expect the U.S. to duplicate what it did at last year's Worlds in Eugene later this summer in Budapest?  Of course not!  There was a definite home field advantage last year at Hayward Field.  However, that success will still have a major impact.  Because it'll result in an even larger American team than normal.  And a team that has the potential to be just as good.

After all, the U.S. team is the hardest team to make in the sport.  Worlds is actually the easy part.  But they have to get there first.  Which is what the next four days in Oregon are all about.  Let's make a World Championships team, shall we?