No Russia, No Belarus (Maybe)

"Russia" hasn't participated in the Olympics since 2016.  There were Russian athletes in PyeongChang, Tokyo and Beijing, but they competed under those ridiculous "neutral" banners of OAR and ROC.  It looks like Paris will make it four straight Olympics without "Russia," but this time it looks like there might not be any Russian athletes either.  Or Belarusian athletes for that matter.

The other day, as a part of the one-year-to-go celebration in Paris, the Olympic invitations were officially sent out to 203 of the 206 National Olympic Committees.  The Guatemalan Olympic Committee has been suspended since October, so they didn't get one.  Neither did Russia or Belarus.  They were both suspended shortly after the invasion of Ukraine and likely won't be reinstated until the war is over.  And the participation of Russian and Belarusian athletes in Olympic qualifying has been a divisive enough issue.  I can only imagine what it'll be like in Paris!

Qualification for the Paris Games is well underway and has proven to be an extremely complicated (and delicate) situation.  Russia and Belarus, of course, are in Europe.  However, Ukraine and many of its allies refuse to compete against Russians or Belarusians (even as neutral athletes), so they can't participate in European qualifying.  The compromise was to let Russian and Belarusian athletes compete in Asian qualifying, but that's only putting a band-aid on it.  Because their status for Paris is still very much up in the air.

IOC President Thomas Bach has promised some clarity about the situation, with a final decision likely expected at the IOC Session in the fall.  Bach has also stressed that there's still time and a decision doesn't need to be made right away, but I disagree with him about that point.  Qualifying is underway, so, even if they're eligible, it won't matter if they aren't able to qualify!

Some sports have been letting Russians and Belarusians compete as neutrals all along.  Mainly individual sports like tennis and fencing.  So, there will still be plenty of Russian and Belarusian athletes who qualify to compete in Paris as "neutral" athletes, should they be allowed to field a team.  Assuming they are allowed to field a team, those teams will be significanty smaller than usual, though.  And it could really impact the competition in Paris.

There are a few sports that would become wide open without any Russians.  They've been the dominant force in artistic swimming for so long that their absence would definitely be felt.  Same thing in rhythmic gymnastics, a sport in which the Eastern European countries are generally the strongest.  And, of course, there's no chance Russia or Belarus will be able to qualify in any team sports (not that Belarus would, but it would certainly be possible for Russia).

If it were up to Bach, they'd be in Paris as "neutral" athletes.  He's made that clear time and again.  He doesn't think punishing Russian and Belarusian athletes for the actions of their governments is fair.  So, as long as they don't support the war and aren't members of the military, he thinks they should be in Paris.  Others in the Olympic family disagree.  Thus the impasse.

As we saw at the last three Olympics, the "OAR" and "ROC" thing was an absolute joke!  Their uniforms might not've said "Russia," and they might not've been alllowed to wear Russian colors or waive their flag or hear no anthem, but everybody knew exactly what country they represented.  It would be the exact same thing in Paris.  It'll be fairly obvious where the "neutral" athletes without a flag are from.  Which is a big problem for some athletes.  And not just Ukrainians, either.

In an open letter sent to Bach a few weeks ago, nearly 100 Olympic athletes representing several countries expressed their concers about letting the Russians and Belarusians participate as neutral athletes.  Their argument was, basically, that it wouldn't work.  One of their main points, in fact, was that the whole idea of participating in the Olympics is to represent your country.  They cited 2018, 2020 and 2022 as their example.  So, try as you might, you can't separate Russia and Belarus from those athletes, even if they're officially designated as "neutrals."

This suspension is also vastly different than the ROC's initial suspension for its multitude of doping offenses, which originally would've seen them missing the Paris Games had it not been reduced from four years to two by the CAS.  So, they were actually doubly-suspended for several months last year until the doping suspension expired.  Now it's just because of the war.

Try as they might, it's impossible to keep politics out of the Olympics.  And the fact that many high-profile European nations have expressed their opposition to having Russia and/or Belarus at the Paris Games in any capacity is why this conversation will continue.  Bach has also pointed out how no one is calling for any other nation currently at war with another to be banned from the Paris Olympics, so what makes this war any different?  We, of course, know the answer to that question, but it is a legitimate point in favor of allowing them to compete.

So, I can honestly say I have no idea how this whole thing's gonna play out.  There's a valid argument on both sides.  The Russian and Belarusian flags will almost certainly not be there.  Their athletes may or may not, depending on how the discussions/negotiations go.  Because the athletes are right.  You can't separate Russia & Belarus from their athletes.  But the IOC is also right.  The athletes aren't the ones responsible for the war, so is it fair to deny them the opportunity to compete?

All we know right now is that Russia and Belarus were not sent invitations for the Paris Games by the IOC.  On the surface, that's not really too big a deal.  They're more of a formality than anything else, and those invitations can always be sent to the Russian and Belarusian Olympic Committees later on.  And, it's in the Olympic Charter that every eligible nation is required to send a team to the Games.  (North Korea didn't go to Tokyo because of COVID-19 concerns and was suspended for Beijing as a result.)  "Eligible" is the key word, though.  Because right now, Belarus and Russia are not.

It seems pretty likely that those invitations aren't coming and both Russia and Belarus will not be able to enter formal teams in Paris.  As for their athletes, who knows?!  I'm inclined to think "Yes," and we'll see them as neutrals.  But I wouldn't be surprised if they end up getting banned from Paris entirely.