Still Figuring Out the Schedule

As the NHL appears ready to approve an 84-game schedule moving forward, the SEC has spent more than a year trying to figure out whether it'll play an eight- or nine-game football schedule once Texas and Oklahoma join the conference.  Georgia Head Coach Kirby Smart called the never-ending discussion "the most overrated conversation in the world," and it doesn't look like they'll have a resolution anytime soon.  Which really is ridiculous if you think about it.

Let's start with the NHL, which isn't just more straightforward, it also seems to be essentially a done deal.  They just need the NHLPA to sign off on it and figure out the financials.  But, it looks like the NHL will be adding two games (I'd imagine starting in 2024-25), which is basically just putting back the two division teams every team lost when Seattle joined the league.

The NHL schedule is actually pretty balanced.  Teams play the 16 teams in the other conference twice each (32 games) and three games against the eight teams in the other division within their conference (24 games).  The remaining 26 games are against your division rivals.  Since there are seven of them, though, you play five division opponents four times and only three games against the other two.  And that quickly became a problem.

It seemed like they tried to rotate the division teams you only play three times in a season.  But that rotation resulted in two big rivalries, Rangers-Islanders and Oilers-Flames, being done with their season series in December.  More significantly, the Oilers and Islanders ended up having only one home game against their biggest rival!  Which is just no good, from both an attendance and TV perspective.

There was a very simple solution to this problem.  Adding two games brings you to 28 total against your division foes.  Or four per opponent.  Thus, you don't have to rotate who you only play three times.  (Before Vegas joined, they rotated two division opponents to play five times.)  It also gives everybody an extra home game, which, in turn, gives the NHL a little more flexibility in scheduling international or Stadium Series games.

So, it should really be no surprise that both the league and players are all for it.  I suspected that an 84-game schedule was on the horizon as soon as Seattle was approved as the league's 32nd team, simply because of the easier math.  Expect the 84-game schedule to be approved and formally announced fairly soon.  

Unfortunately, things aren't that easy in the SEC.  Despite knowing for a while that the addition of Texas and Oklahoma is imminent, they still can't agree on eight or nine games.  Some coaches would prefer eight games.  Others want nine.  The reasons for both opinions vary, but it's created an impasse that will need to get resolved soon.  Texas and Oklahoma join the league in the Fall of 2024, so they've gotta figure it out so that the schedule can be made.

They are able to agree on one thing.  No more divisions.  With the NCAA loosening the requirements for conferences to have a championship game, the divisional structure is no longer required.  Which also resolves one of the biggest issues with the SEC's current schedule model.  With divisions, teams face the same opponents year after year and rarely see teams from the other division (Georgia has still never visited Texas A&M...Texas A&M has been in the SEC for more than a decade).  Dropping divisions takes care of that.  They'll see every team at least every other year and will be guaranteed to play everybody at home at least once during the four years of a player's eligibility.

That seems to be the only thing they can agree on, though.  At issue in the eight vs. nine debate seems to be some teams not wanting to lose a non-conference (home) game and replacing it with a conference game.  It's true that eight more conference games will result in eight more losses for SEC teams, and with the CFP essentially rewarding teams for playing tougher schedules, the game that could get scrapped may be the guarantee game against an FCS opponent that the SEC team typically wins 49-3 without breaking a sweat.  Which, in turn, is often what funds the football program (and sometimes the entire Athletic Department) at some of these smaller schools.

However, the concern seems to be less about that as much as it is about adding another quality opponent.  Kentucky, which plays Louisville every year, is one of the biggest proponents of keeping it at eight.  Likewise, South Carolina (Clemson), Georgia (Georgia Tech) and Florida (Florida State) also play annual rivalry games against the in-state ACC school.  That rivalry game would mean they all have 10 Power 5 opponents already locked in each season, which, to them, feels like a lot.

Keeping it at eight would also make scheduling somewhat easier since teams would only have one permanent opponent, then go seven-on, seven-off with the others.  That brings plenty of its own problems, though, since most SEC teams have multiple opponents they'd like to see every year.  Either way, some rivalries will no longer be permanent.  And either way, somebody's gonna be unhappy, whether they go with eight or nine.

For example, Texas A&M would like to play Texas every year.  LSU would like to play Alabama.  Georgia has played Auburn 127 times and would like to see that series continue.  That wouldn't be possible with an eight-game conference schedule, though, since Texas-Oklahoma, Alabama-Auburn and Georgia-Florida (and, likely, Texas A&M-LSU) will be the permanent rivalries.  (I'm assuming the others would be Mississippi-Mississippi State, Arkansas-Missouri, Tennessee-Vanderbilt and Kentucky-South Carolina.)

I, personally, am a fan of a nine-game conference schedule in a 3-6-6 model.  That third permanent opponent would give teams a chance to preserve all of their important rivalries.  Yes, there are concerns that some teams would have easier/tougher schedules based on who their permanent opponents are, but you're never gonna find a formula that makes everybody happy.  That's why a compromise needs to be reached.  And soon.  Since they need to figure it out and make a schedule before Texas and Oklahoma join.

SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey has even said that they may come up with a short-term solution that's only in place for a year or two before settling on a final model.  It seems to me that's most likely what they'll end up doing, at least in 2024...probably in an eight-game format.  Moving forward, though, they'd benefit far more from playing nine conference games.  It's just a matter of getting Kentucky (and the other holdouts) on board.