Now It's Time to Win One More

The United States has gotten off to an incredible start at the men's hockey World Championships.  The Americans started the tournament by beating host Finland and rolled through the rest of group play undefeated heading into their final game against Sweden...which they ended up winning in overtime.  That's 6-1-0 in the group round and the No. 1 seed for the quarterfinals, where they drew the Czech Republic.  And won again!

That's eight straight wins heading into the semifinals, where the U.S. will take on Germany.  The semifinals.  The round that's to the U.S. what Game 7 of the first round in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is to the Maple Leafs.  This will be their 12th semifinal at Worlds since the current format was introduced in 1992.  They're 0-11 in the previous 11.  That's right.  Eleven straight semifinal losses!  The United States hasn't made the final at the World Championships since 1950!

You'd obviously have to like their chances to finally snap that streak against Germany.  They easily could've gotten a team like Finland, Sweden or Canada (playing one of those teams or Russia is generally the reason why they haven't won a semi).  Instead, they got the Germans, who upset Switzerland in their quarterfinal, and the U.S. will undoubtedly be the favorites in that game.

Playing Germany, who they've already beaten in the tournament, could certainly be considered a bit of a break.  But the Germans did win Olympic silver (and nearly won gold) five years ago, upsetting Sweden and Canada in the medal round.  And, even though the roster changes every year, that World Championship semifinal is still a sort of mental barrier the U.S. needs to get past.

Of course, the reason why the U.S. hasn't done better than bronze at the World Championships in more than 70 years is a simple one.  The best American players are either resting after the grueling NHL season or still playing in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  The roster is still made up of mostly NHL players, but they come mainly from teams that didn't make the playoffs.

For the European teams, that's less of an issue.  There are, of course, also European players who are unavailable because of the playoffs.  But the European leagues are all done, so those guys are all free to play should they choose.  Plus, the World Championships are always in Europe, so they don't have the transatlantic travel to worry about, either.

It's really only the Canadians who can relate to the USA's situation.  Except the sheer number of Canadians in the NHL make it a little easier for them to field a team for Worlds that's still pretty stocked, even in the midst of the playoffs!  Whatever they've been doing has worked.  The last three gold medal games have been Canada vs. Finland.

What's interesting about Canada and the United States at the World Championships isn't just the final result for each team.  It's how they progress through the tournament.  Canada usually loses a game or two during the group round and has the No. 2 or 3 seed heading into the medal round.  Which ultimately doesn't matter at all.  Because they peak for the medal round.  They know they're gonna advance regardless, so their focus is on the three games they have to win at the end.  Not the seven at the beginning.

Yes, the more games you win during the group round, the better your seed for the medal round.  However, every medal round game is essentially a Game 7.  It doesn't matter how many group games you won.  You can win all seven, and you're still done if you lose in the quarterfinals.  Just look at the U.S. in Beijing.  Their only loss of the tournament came in a shootout against Slovakia in the quarterfinals.  One loss.  No medal.

Winning 10 straight games is incredibly difficult.  That's another reason why a loss in the group round may not always necessarily be a bad thing.  Especially for a team like the United States or Canada (or Finland, Sweden, the Czech Republic or, when they return from exile, Russia).  Those top teams are gonna advance one way or another.  When they face each other, it's for positioning in the medal round.  Which can really make a huge difference!

I'm not saying teams shouldn't try to win every game they play.  Hockey players especially aren't wired that way.  What I am saying is that a loss during the group stage isn't the end of the world and could even be good.  Someone in the other pool might get upset, so you may end up with a more favorable matchup.  But mainly, it's my other point.  You can't go in expecting to win all 10 games you play.  But you've gotta make sure you win the last three.  So, if you are gonna lose a game, make sure it's one of the first seven.

Canada has used that approach a lot.  In 2021, the United States lost its first game against Finland, then won six straight and was the No. 1 seed in the medal round.  Canada started 0-3 that year, then lost its final group game to Finland in a shootout.  When they played during group play, the United States won 5-1.  When they played again the semifinals, it was 4-2 Canada.  Canada, which went 3-4 in group play, went on to win the gold medal.  (Canada was 4-1-1-1 in group play this year, BTW, with the shootout loss coming against Norway of all countries!)

Is it possible to win all seven of your group play games and also win the gold medal?  Of course!  Sweden did it in 2018 (when they beat guess who? in the semifinals), and so did Canada in 2014 (what is it about Olympic years?).  So, what the U.S. is trying to do this year, while difficult, isn't unprecedented.  They just need to finally get past the semifinals first.

Should they beat Germany, what happens in the gold medal game almost won't even matter.  Winning it would obviously be great.  It would be the USA's first gold medal at a World Championships since 1933 (the Olympics doubled as the World Championships in 1960, so the gold at the Squaw Valley Games was technically also a World Championship).  But getting there will mean getting past the biggest hurdle.  It would mean they won a semi.