Cricket In LA? Seems Unlikely

Starting with the Tokyo Games, the IOC began giving Olympic hosts the option of adding sports to the program that aren't among the 28 "core sports" for their individual edition of Games only.  That's why we saw baseball and softball's return, as well as karate's debut in Tokyo, and that's why breaking will be included for the first time in Paris.  Pretty soon, the Olympic program for LA 2028 will be finalized, and sports are already angling to be among the sports that are chosen.

One of the sports hoping to be included is cricket.  As recently as last week, the President of the International Cricket Council was bullish on the sport's chances.  The Los Angeles team in Major League Cricket, the U.S. league set to launch later this year, is building a 10,000-seat home stadium, and the U.S. is co-hosting the 2024 T20 Cricket World Cup.  They see the United States as a growing market with huge potential, which would only be increased by cricket's inclusion in the 2028 Olympics.

However, there's a big but regarding that argument.  They may be right.  Cricket may eventually become a big sport in the United States.  But it currently isn't.  And it won't be by next year, when the program for the LA Olympics is finalized.  So, I don't follow their logic.  It's true that the LA Olympics aren't for five years.  Even if it's popular by 2028, though, it won't be popular enough by 2024 to warrant a place on the program.

What cricket should be doing is angling for a place in 2032.  Because that's a no-brainer.  Cricket is hugely popular in the Commonwealth, especially in Australia, which won the women's tournament at last year's Commonwealth Games (where it was played for the first time).  So, it would make complete sense to hold men's and women's tournament in Brisbane.  In LA, however?  Not so much!  Especially when you consider the other sports in contention for Olympic spots, all of which are more popular in the U.S.

Now, it's worth noting that skateboarding and sport climbing, which both debuted in Tokyo and will also be featured in Paris, likely won't be considered "additional sports" in 2028.  They could very well be added to the list of core sports after the IOC's next review, just like golf and rugby were after Tokyo.  Boxing and weightlifting have been plagued by governance problems, and modern pentathlon's relevance has been questioned for a while.  So, it's easy to see skateboarding and/or sport climbing replacing one of them as a "core" sport come LA 2028.

Of course, getting dropped from the list of "core" sports wouldn't mean that they won't be contested in LA.  It's hard to believe that boxing wouldn't be included, even if they have to make it an "additional" sport.  Ditto about weightlifting, which has been featured since the very first modern Olympics in 1896.  Modern pentathlon, on the other hand, isn't very "modern," and is likely still only included on the Olympic program because it was invented by Pierre de Coubertin, the founder of the modern Olympics, and has the support of Juan Antonio Samaranch, Jr., an IOC Vice President and son of the longtime IOC leader.

As for the sports that are being considered for LA, baseball/softball appears to be a virtual lock for inclusion.  I could get into why, but I don't really think I need to.  The only real question, frankly, is where they would play them.  Dodger Stadium seems obvious for the baseball tournament, but I wonder if it might be considered too big.  And USC is out since they're using Dedeaux Field (USC's baseball stadium) for swimming.  Softball I figure could easily be played at UCLA.  (Australia's also good at both baseball and softball, so you'd think they'll be featured in both 2028 and 2032.)

I wouldn't be surprised if breaking makes a return appearance in 2028, either.  One of the reasons they added it for Paris is because they're trying to make the Olympics more "youth friendly."  The Americans are good at it, too.  So those two things alone make breaking look like a virtual lock to be included again in LA.  Especially since they won't know what type of reaction the inaugural Olympic breaking competition in Paris will have received by the time they finalize the 2028 program.

There are three other sports mentioned to be in the running that I think have little to no chance of being included--flag football, teqball and sambo.  Teqball, while fast-growing, is simply too new.  Sambo is a type of wrestling that's similar to judo.  Do we need another martial art in the Olympics?  And flag football, while obviously popular in America, might not be big enough internationally to have competitive men's and women's tournaments.

Which leaves two sports where I can see it going either way--karate and lacrosse.  Karate's appearance in Tokyo was generally considered to be a one-off.  The Japanese enthusiasm isn't really matched elsewhere in the world.  But, as an individual sport with multiple weight classes (and two disciplines), I can see it.  Although, I'm not sure how popular it would be with the fans, which is why I can also see it not happening.

Then there's lacrosse, a sport that has been included in the Olympics twice--in 1904 and 1908.  The second of those tournaments consisted of a single game between Canada and Great Britain.  Lacrosse tournaments nowadays, though, are very international.  It's not just English-speaking countries, either, even if Canada, the United States, Great Britain and Australia are the strongest nations.  Lacrosse is played at the World Games and the men's World Championships will be in San Diego this summer.

Like baseball and softball, lacrosse is popular in both the United States and Australia.  Which means it, too, could also feature in both 2028 and 2032.  And that's the whole point of the additional sports.  Letting the host country take advantage of that popularity and include those sports in the Olympic program.

Except there's just one problem.  Lacrosse, baseball and softball are all team sports.  So, it would be a lot of athletes for only two sets of medals.  And the number of total athletes will still be capped at around 10,500, which would mean you have to pull those athletes away from somewhere just to get the roughly 120 for a six-team tournament.  Men's lacrosse and baseball need more like 25, so that would be a minimum of 150 athletes each.  (Although, I say you increase the athlete limit to 11,000 if you're letting the host country add sports.  That way you don't have to reduce quotas in other sports).

It's still way too early to guess which sports will be added for the 2028 Olympics.  If I had to guess, though, I'd say it'll be baseball/softball, breaking and possibly karate.  Pending whatever happens with boxing and weightlifting.  One thing I am pretty sure of, though, is that cricket won't be one of them.  No matter how optimistic they are about their chances.