That was my first thought about this year's French Open after Rafael Nadal announced he has to miss this year's tournament due to injury. So, for the first time in nearly two decades, we know for a fact that Clay Boy won't add to his collection of Coupes de Mousquetaires. In fact, he even hinted at a 2024 retirement, so, assuming he's back next year, it'll be his French Open farewell (with the Olympics presumably being his final tournament at Roland Garros). Still, no Nadal means a wide open field.
OK, to call the field "wide open" is a stretch. Because there are two clear favorites. And they unfortunately ended up on the same side of the draw, so they can't meet in the final. My No. 3 choice to win the tournament is also in the top half, which definitely looks like the stronger section.
World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz might've been the favorite even if Nadal was playing. He burst onto the scene last year in the European clay court French Open tune-ups and ended up reaching the quarterfinals, where he lost to Alexander Zverev. Alcaraz went on to win the US Open and become No. 1. And now he'll play a Grand Slam as the No. 1 seed for the first time in his career. If he ends up lifting the trophy, I have a feeling it could be the first of many.
Novak Djokovic's strange odyssey saw him reclaim the No. 1 ranking from Alcaraz after winning the Australian Open, then giving it back when he had to miss the Spring U.S. tournaments because he's unvaccinated (the vaccine mandate for foreigners has since been lifted, so he should be good to go for the US Open). Anyway, he's currently No. 3, which is how he ended up on the same side of the draw as Alcaraz. Should Djokovic win his third French Open title, he'll move into a tie with Nadal at 22 career Grand Slam titles.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is that third favorite I mentioned. He blew a two-sets-to-none lead against Djokovic in the 2021 final, then lost to him in straight sets in this year's Australian Open final. If he were on the other side of the draw, I'd like his chances much better. However, I also think the fifth-seeded Tsitsipas is absolutely capable of knocking off Alcaraz in the quarters...which would set up a potential semifinal matchup with Djokovic.
On the bottom half, meanwhile, are the other two semifinalists from last year--Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev. Zverev, who's actually reached back-to-back semis here, was going toe-to-toe with Nadal last year before he was forced to retire with a gruesome ankle injury late in the second set. If he's healthy (which he appears to be), look for him to potentially make a third straight semifinal run. I'm not sure I see him beating Ruud in the semi, though.
So, in the men's final I've got the same matchup as last year's US Open final--Alcaraz vs. Ruud. Alcaraz won that one in four. Should they meet in the final, I don't even think it goes that far. Alcaraz wins his first of what I think will likely be many French Opens in straight sets.
Women's tennis, meanwhile, has been dominated by one player for more than a year. When Iga Swiatek cruised to the title here in the pandemic-delayed 2020 tournament, it was the start of a meteoric rise to the top. She inherited the No. 1 ranking when Ash Barty abruptly retired last Spring, then solidified it with a 37-match winning streak that included a second French Open title. She also won the US Open last year. So, yeah, she's the one to beat.
Swiatek had to retire in her quarterfinal match at the Italian Open, but seems good to go for Roland Garros. If the injury hampers her at all, though, it's obviously an opportunity for someone else to step up. Somebody like Ons Jabeur perhaps. Jabeur lost in the first round last year, then went on to make the final at both Wimbledon and the US Open. Clay is her weakest surface, but I still have a feeling she can make a run.
Three Americans also look like they could play deep into the second week. Coco Gauff made her first Grand Slam final at last year's French Open. In the round of 16, she could face Madison Keys, who's looked good through the clay court season. Then there's Jess Pegula, who's ranked No. 3 in the world and was a quarterfinalist here last year. She also made the doubles final in 2022, so you know she's comfortable on clay. And, strangely, the American women have a history of success in Paris.
I also like Maria Sakkari. She lost in the second round last year, but was a semifinalist in 2021. Sakkari is seeded eighth this year, and I just like her draw. Her road to the quarters doesn't seem too challenging, and I can see her beating Pegula. The other quarterfinal on that side of the draw could be Jelena Ostapenko, the 2017 champion, and Australian Open winner Aryna Sabalenka.
Speaking of Sabalenka, her first-round match has all kinds of political undertones. Sabalenka is from Belarus, so she's technically not representing any country right now. Her opponent is Mariya Kostyuk, a Ukrainian. Talk about tension! It's obviously not anything she can control, but talking about the war is certainly she likely wanted to avoid heading into her first Grand Slam tournament as a Grand Slam champion.
As for who'll win the women's title, I think that's a pretty easy one. Swiatek hasn't reached a Nadal-like level of dominance at Roland Garros, but she's No. 1 in the world and also the best player on clay. Beating her will be extremely difficult. I see her winning her third Coupe Suzanne Lenglen in four years.
In the final, I think she beats Sakkari. I don't know why I'm so high on Sakkari. Her history indicates I shouldn't be. But I am for some reason. She makes her first career Grand Slam final, setting her up for a potentially deep run at Wimbledon (which is actually offering ranking points this year!).
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