Joe Women's Bracket, 2021

With the NCAA Tournament returning after our lost year and the men's bracket now set, we turn our attention to the women's field.  Just like the men, they're playing at a single-site--in this case, Texas.  And, since the Final Four will be played in San Antonio, the NCAA has named the regions after different San Antonio landmarks, which I love!

Just like on the men's side, the No. 1 and 2 seeds are pretty straightforward.  Although, the positions are not as clear cut as they were for the men.  Who will be the No. 1 overall seed, Stanford or UConn?  Who will get the fourth No. 1, NC State or South Carolina?  Will Texas A&M be a 1-seed even though it's South Carolina that won the SEC title?

Personally, I think UConn is the best team.  As such, I gave them the No. 1 overall seed ahead of Stanford.  Texas A&M's body of work does justify a No. 1 seed opposite Baylor, the No. 6 team.  As for NC State and South Carolina, they'll be 1 and 2 in the same region, so it really doesn't make much of a difference which one is which.  I went with NC State and its 20-2 record, which included an undefeated mark against ranked opponents.

The women's bubble also proved to be very interesting this year.  Missouri State opted not to play in its MVC semifinal over COVID concerns.  There's no doubt they would've gotten in anyway, so that took an at-large bid away.  Although, in a way, two at-large berths were added because of the Ivy League's opt-out and Ohio State being ineligible.

It's always interesting to see how the women's bubble plays out because the mid-majors are so different.  The Summit League is a great example.  South Dakota State and South Dakota were both looking at bids no matter how the tournament went.  That hasn't changed.  And, like I said, the Missouri Valley gained a bid when Missouri State made its (probably wise) decision.  Then there's Bowling Green and Delaware, two regular season conference champs with impressive records.  Unfortunately, I don't think either of them makes the cut.

I've also gotta talk about Cal Baptist.  Cal Baptist went 24-0 this season and won the WAC Tournament.  They won't be playing in the NCAA Tournament, though, because they're still in their transition period after moving up from D-II and won't be eligible for D-1 postseason play until 2023.  They're the first team to finish undefeated since UConn in 2016 and the first undefeated team ever to not play in the tournament.

Everyone knew the deal with Cal Baptist, so it's not like they were screwed in any way, but it's an unfortunate situation regardless.  I'm curious to see how the committee would've handled them, too.  Cal Baptist hasn't been ranked all season and only received one vote in this week's AP poll.  The WAC isn't exactly the strongest conference, either.  An undefeated record would've been tough to ignore, though.  I think they probably would've been seeded somewhere in the 7-9 range.  Instead, it'll be a Utah Valley team that'll receive a much lower seed representing the WAC.

As for the top seeds, the neutral-site tournament means they won't be playing on their home courts in the first two rounds.  Does that mean we'll see more early-round upsets than usual?  I'm not so sure.  Because the top 16 teams are a cut above the rest of the field.

So it's really just figuring out where to place everyone and balance the bracket.  There are five SEC teams getting top-four seeds (and another--Arkansas--getting a five).  The Pac-12, meanwhile, has a 1 and two 3's.  The Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC have two teams apiece in the top 16, with UConn and Gonzaga rounding it out.

Also, like the men, I'd expect a pool of replacement teams to be available and ready just in case.  So, the bubble might not necessarily be burst for the teams that aren't in the field.  However, it certainly must be better to be one of these 64 and know you're definitely playing in the Tournament...

ALAMO REGION
1-Connecticut (1) vs. 16-Lehigh, 8-Virginia Tech vs. 9-Michigan State
4-Kentucky vs. 13-Troy, 5-Missouri State vs. 12-VCU
3-Indiana vs. 14-Marist, 6-South Florida vs. 11-Mississippi State
2-Louisville vs. 15-Drexel, 7-Texas vs. 10-DePaul

HEMISFAIR REGION
1-NC State (4) vs. 16-North Carolina A&T, 8-Marquette vs. 9-Oregon State
4-Tennessee vs. 13-Wright State, 5-Iowa vs. 12-UC Davis
3-UCLA vs. 14-High Point, 6-Northwestern vs. 11-Central Florida
2-South Carolina vs. 15-Bradley, 7-South Dakota State vs. 10-Oklahoma State

MERCADO REGION
1-Stanford (2) vs. 16-Mount St. Mary's, 8-Florida State vs. 9-Florida Gulf Coast
4-West Virginia vs. 13-Wyoming, 5-Arkansas vs. 12-Stephen F. Austin
3-Georgia vs. 14-Mercer, 6-Oregon vs. 11-BYU
2-Maryland vs. 15-Stony Brook, 7-Iowa State vs. 10-Syracuse

RIVER WALK REGION
1-Texas A&M (3) vs. 16-Jackson State, 8-Rutgers vs. 9-South Dakota
4-Gonzaga vs. 13-Idaho State, 5-Georgia Tech vs. 12-Belmont
3-Arizona vs. 14-Middle Tennessee, 6-Michigan vs. 11-Central Michigan
2-Baylor vs. 15-Utah Valley, 7-Alabama vs. 10-North Carolina

Bids by Conference: SEC (8), ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (5), Pac-12 (5), Big East (3), American (2), Missouri Valley (2), Summit (2), West Coast (2)