Baseball 2021 (NL Central)

Last season, the NL Central put four of its five teams into the expanded playoffs.  Which doesn't really say as much about the strength of the division as you might think...because they all lost in the first round!  And two of them, the Brewers and Reds, made the playoffs despite having sub-.500 records!  So, no, the NL Central didn't have a "great" year in 2020.  It had a bunch of mediocre teams, none of which was really better than any of the others.

This year, that should be different.  Because there is a clear frontrunner in the NL Central.  That team is the St. Louis Cardinals.  After a couple of down seasons, the Cardinals had quite an impressive run last season, earning the 5-seed despite all of their COVID problems and every-other-day doubleheaders.  And this season, they've only gotten better by adding All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado.

As for the rest of the division, I think they'll again be toiling in mediocrity.  The Cubs, Reds and Brewers are all in kind of a similar boat.  They aren't good enough to be considered serious contenders.  But they aren't bad enough to completely tear it down, either.  That's how they all managed to make the playoffs last season.  That obviously can't happen again in a full season when there are only five playoff teams, but they also figure to all regress to the mean and hope to flirt with .500 at best.

The Pirates, meanwhile, are in yet another full-blown rebuild.  I'd even venture to say that Pittsburgh is the worst team in baseball.  So, if those other three teams are able to beat up on Pittsburgh enough, they might actually have a chance of qualifying for the wild card game.  That seems unlikely, though, because the Padres and the NL East teams are all better than them.  Although, it might only take 87-88 wins to win the division, and that's a much more realistic goal.

1. St. Louis Cardinals: Simply put, the Cardinals are the best, most stable team in the division.  They've done their usual thing and build up with young guys nobody has ever heard of, and now they've enhanced it by bringing in Arenado to give Paul Goldschmidt some lineup protection.  That move pushed Matt Carpenter into a bench/utility role, which isn't just perfect for him, it actually makes him more valuable.  And I don't care what you say about his age or the fact that he's not the player he used to be, I'll take Yadi Molina any day of the week, and not just because he's a future Hall of Famer.  A franchise icon who's a veteran mentor for both all the younger players and the pitching staff should have a place on any team.

That pitching staff is the real reason why I like the Cardinals in the NL Central, though.  They don't have the rotation of the Dodgers or anybody in the East, but they have the best rotation in this division by far.  And I'd trust any of those five guys to make a big start, which is exactly what you want.  The bullpen is a little shaky, but they have some pieces you can trust, and that's an area they can certainly address during the season.  Even if it means trading one of their 35 Major-League-ready outfielders somewhere else at the deadline. 
Projected Lineup: Harrison Bader-CF, Paul DeJong-SS, Nolan Arenado-3B, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Tyler O'Neill-LF, Tommy Edman-2B, Yadier Molina-C, Dylan Carlson-RF
Projected Rotation: Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Kwang Hyun Kim, Carlos Martinez
Closer: Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 90-72

2. Chicago Cubs: I'm much higher on the Cubs than a lot of other people.  Some thought that their offseason moves were the first sign that they're ready to move on from the core of their 2016 championship team.  It may be true that Kris Bryant is traded or leaves as a free agent.  Same thing with Anthony Rizzo and Javy Baez.  But they're still in Chicago right now.  So is Willson Contreras.  And the Cubs actually added a piece in Joc Pederson, who'll finally get a chance to play everyday after the Dodgers wouldn't let him face lefties.  And that's why I can't see them regressing all the way back down to an also-ran.

It's not like they're waving the white flag, either.  Sure, the Yu Darvish trade kinda came out of nowhere, but they got Zach Davies in return, and he'll slide in nicely behind Kyle Hendricks.  Jon Lester left as a free agent, but his replacement in the rotation is Alec Mills, who threw a no-hitter last year!  And, while it might not look like it, their bullpen is pretty solid.  Ryan Tepera even got an MVP vote in 2020!  Call me crazy, but if anyone's gonna challenge the Cardinals, I think it could be their longtime rivals from the Windy City.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-CF, Kris Bryant-3B, Javier Baez-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Joc Pederson-LF, Willson Contreras-C, Jason Heyward-RF, David Bote-2B
Projected Rotation: Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies, Jake Arrieta, Alec Mills, Trevor Williams
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 83-79

3. Cincinnati Reds: When your team relies on hitting home runs and little else, things like what happened in the Wild Card Series can happen.  The Reds didn't score a run in either game of their sweep by the Braves, and one went extra innings!  That's who they are.  I get it.  But they've done nothing to address the flaws in that strategy, even after it was badly exposed against Atlanta.  So this season will likely be more of the same.  A lot of home runs, and a lot of 10-8 losses.

Which isn't to say the Reds won't be a fun team to watch.  Teams that can tear the cover off the ball usually are.  I'm just saying they need to get something on the pitching front, which will be made significantly more difficult by the fact that Trevor Bauer, last season's Cy Young winner, isn't fronting the rotation.  That job now falls to Sonny Gray, who isn't as good as No. 2 starter Luis Castillo.  Cincinnati's best pitcher, frankly, is closer Amir Garrett.  Hopefully they'll give him save opportunities.
Projected Lineup: Nick Senzel-CF, Mike Moustakas-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Nick Castellanos-RF, Jesse Winker-LF, Tucker Barnhart-C, Kyle Farmer-SS
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley, Jeff Hoffman
Closer: Amir Garrett
Projected Record: 80-82

4. Milwaukee Brewers: In a lot of ways, Milwaukee is kind of like Tampa Bay or Oakland.  The Brewers are randomly good every time you think they won't be and struggle whenever you think they're gonna be a contender.  If those are the only two options, I think the former is more likely.  However, I feel somewhat confident in saying that the Brewers probably won't be making a serious postseason push this year.  Don't forget, they were 29-31 last year, so, yes, they qualified for the playoffs, but it's not like they were a good team.

Although, the combination their pitching and the fact that they play in the NL Central make the thought of a playoff run not totally inconceivable.  Milwaukee's bullpen is so good that they really only need to worry about the first six innings.  If they hand a lead to Devin Williams and Josh Hader, they'll have to feel pretty good.  And let's not forget that a healthy Christian Yelich is one of the best players in baseball.  A lot of Brewers regulars have been All-Stars at some point in their careers.  If they can put up those type of number again, and they get even adequate pitching, who knows what can happen in Milwaukee?!
Projected Lineup: Lorenzo Cain-CF, Kolten Wong-2B, Christian Yelich-LF, Avisail Garcia-RF, Daniel Vogelbach-1B, Omar Narvaez-C, Travis Shaw-3B, Orlando Arcia-SS
Projected Rotation: Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 75-87

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Imagine, just for a second, how good the Pirates could be if they could actually manage to hang on to players.  You can find examples all over baseball of former Pirates who are starring elsewhere.  Forty percent of the Yankees' rotation is former Pirates!  Josh Bell is the latest example of a guy who made his name in Pittsburgh and has since moved on, having been traded to Washington in the offseason.  With Bell gone, that officially leaves Gregory Polanco (maybe) as the only player on the Pirates you've ever heard of, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're taking calls about Polanco at the trade deadline.

Pittsburgh only won 19 games last season.  That averages out to just over 51 wins for an entire season, which is bordering on '62 Mets and '03 Tigers territory.  I don't think they'll be that bad, but they won't be good.  Sadly, not losing 100 games might be the most realistic goal for them, and I'm not even sure how attainable that is.  Although, help is eventually on the way.  They've got the No. 1 pick this year, and they'll be picking in the top five again in 2022.  If not back-to-back No. 1's.  Remember when the Nationals had back-to-back No. 1 picks?  I'd say that worked out pretty well for them.  Maybe the same thing can happen in Pittsburgh.
Projected Lineup: Anthony Alford-CF, Kevin Newman-SS, Gregory Polanco-RF, Colin Moran-1B, Ke'Bryan Hayes-3B, Kevin Newman-2B, Bryan Reynolds-LF, Jacob Stallings-C
Projected Rotation: Mitch Keller, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, Tyler Anderson, JT Brubaker
Closer: Richard Rodriguez
Projected Record: 59-103