Baseball 2021 (AL Central)

I'll be honest.  Within the last six hours, I've changed my pick for who's going to win the AL Central this season.  (It's a good thing I did the NL East first!)  Losing Eloy Jimenez essentially for the year was a mighty blow for the White Sox, who I had initially given the edge over the Twins.  However, without him, I think the pendulum swings back in Minnesota's direction, so they are now my division favorite.

Either way, they're the two clear favorites in this division, and it really isn't even that close.  Cleveland doesn't really seem to care about this season.  They've still got Jose Ramirez and they've still got solid pitching, but they're nowhere near as strong as the White Sox and Twins, and they know it.  The Tigers and Royals, meanwhile, are still in the midst of their rebuilds.  Detroit is slightly better, though.

So the question is really whether Chicago and Minnesota can both make the playoffs.  I definitely think it's possible.  And it may be the rest of the division who decides that.  They need to take advantage of those 38 games apiece against the Tigers and Royals.  If they can both get to 90 wins, it's realistic to think one of them can be in the wild card game.  If they don't get to 90, it'll be tough.

And, outside of the NL East, this is the hardest division to pick a winner in.  Because there isn't much of a difference between the White Sox and the Twins.  Really, it'll come down to who pitches better.  Since we know both teams are gonna mash!

1. Minnesota Twins: For all their regular season success, the Twins' failure to even win games in the playoffs has to be incredibly frustrating!  And I'm not sure what they can do to fix it.  Because they're clearly built to win plenty of games in the regular season...and you can't make the playoffs unless you do well in the regular season.  That shouldn't change this year, either.  They re-signed Nelson Cruz, keeping the big bat in the middle of the lineup, and added Andrelton Simmons, who opted out last season with the Angels, but is a good pick-up for Minnesota.  He'll fit right in.

It's the pitching that's typically been the Twins' problem in the playoffs, and that looks to be their weakness again.  Can Kenta Maeda have another Cy Young-caliber season?  And how will J.A. Happ work out?  They've also revamped the bullpen with additions of former Ray Alex Colome and former Angel Hansel Robles.  If they get enough pitching to support the lineup and don't need to win every game 9-7, another division title could easily be in the works.  For a team that's had everything go right the last couple of seasons, though, you wonder how long that can last.  I'm also pretty sure they'd trade it for a playoff win.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Jorge Polanco-2B, Josh Donaldson-3B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Miguel Sano-1B, Andrelton Simmons-SS, Max Kepler-RF, Mitch Garver-C, Jake Cave-LF
Projected Rotation: Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Randy Dobnak
Closer: Taylor Rogers
Projected Record: 90-72

2. Chicago White Sox: When Tony La Russa came out of retirement to take the White Sox job, I thought both he and they were crazy!  It was either a stroke of genius or it'll spectacularly blow up in their faces!  Right now, I'm gonna choose to be optimistic and think it'll be the former.  Because there isn't much wrong with this White Sox team.  Everyone knew they were on the verge.  Then they finally had their breakthrough last season.  And it looked like the start of something big on the South Side.

They do need to fill in a few pieces, which I think they will.  Perhaps even before Opening Day.  For one thing they need a DH.  Could Jay Bruce be the solution?  Likewise, you know they'll probably bring in an outfielder now that Jimenez is on the shelf.  Although, they may simply stick with the outfielders they've got for the time being.  I think their pitching staff is better than Minnesota's, too.  They fortified the bullpen with Liam Hendriks, who could prove to be a big key.  Because he'll probably have a lot of save situations.  And let's not forget how good he was in Oakland the last two years!
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Adam Eaton-RF, Jose Abreu-1B, Yasmani Grandal-C, Luis Robert-CF, Yoan Moncada-2B, Leury Garcia-DH, Adam Engel-LF, Nick Madrigal-2B
Projected Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease, Carlos Rodon
Closer: Liam Hendriks
Projected Record: 88-74

3. Cleveland Indians: It's their last year as the "Indians," and it'll be an interesting one.  Because they're in an odd kind of flux.  They traded their best player, Francisco Lindor, mainly to guarantee they got something for him before he left as a free agent.  But they still have Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, so it's not like their lineup is completely without superstars.  Plus, they still have their outstanding pitching, which is why Cleveland is such a hard team to project.

Are they better than the Twins and White Sox?  No.  Are they as bad as the Tigers and Royals?  No.  Can they put everything together and push for a wild card?  Unlikely, but possible.  Are they a team you don't want to face?  With that pitching, absolutely!  If you can get into that bullpen, though, the Indians are incredibly vulnerable.  Especially now that closer Brad Hand is in Washington.  And that's why think they're no better than a .500 team, give or take a game.
Projected Lineup: Cesar Hernandez-2B, Amed Rosario-SS, Jose Ramirez-3B, Franmil Reyes-DH, Josh Naylor-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, Bobby Bradley-1B, Josh Naylor-CF, Roberto Perez-C
Projected Rotation: Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Trevor McKenzie, Logan Allen
Closer: Nick Wittgren
Projected Record: 80-82

4. Detroit Tigers: If he stays healthy, Miggy should get both his 500th home run and 3,000th hit this season.  That's about all I can say about the 2021 edition of the Detroit Tigers.  I've seen them a bunch during Spring Training, and, frankly, their Minor Leaguers are more impressive than their current roster.  So things are looking somewhat brighter in Detroit.  But those guys aren't there yet.  Instead, it's a bunch of veterans whose better days are behind them.  And, as a result, it's gonna be another long year for the Tigers.

However, they should be slightly better this year, and their new manager is a big reason why.  A.J. Hinch led turnarounds in Arizona and Houston, and I have confidence he'll be able to do the same thing in Detroit.  (For the record, I have no problem with Hinch getting another job so soon because 1. it's a different team and 2. what happened in Houston was NOT his idea.)  Just not yet.  The Tigers are better than the Royals, so they won't finish last.  But that doesn't mean they won't flirt with 100 losses.
Projected Lineup: JaCoby Jones-CF, Willi Castro-SS, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Jeimer Candelario-1B, Victor Reyes-RF, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Robbie Grossman-LF, Grayson Greiner-C, Harold Castro-3B
Projected Rotation: Matthew Boyd, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Michael Fulmer, Jose Urena
Closer: Bryan Garcia
Projected Record: 65-97

5. Kansas City Royals: There isn't really much I can say about the Royals, either.  Although, I must say, I'm intrigued by some of their offseason additions.  Carlos Santana came over from Cleveland, they got Andrew Benintendi in a trade with Boston, and Michael A. Taylor will get the chance to be an everyday center fielder after serving as a fourth outfielder in Washington.  With Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier and Jorge Soler still in place, their lineup actually isn't half bad and could be pretty entertaining.

On the mound, though, they're a mess.  This pitching staff is a far cry from the one that led Kansas City to back-to-back World Series in the mid-2010s, although they're evidently trying to recapture some of that magic by bringing back Wade Davis, who's been a journeyman since he left the Royals.  It's in the rotation, though, where they've got the real problems.  Brad Keller and Danny Duffy aren't a 1-2.  They're a 3-4 at best.  And that lineup's simply not gonna score enough runs to make up for all the ones that the pitching gives up.
Projected Lineup: Whit Merrifield-RF, Andrew Benintendi-LF, Jorge Soler-DH, Carlos Santana-1B, Hunter Dozier-3B, Salvador Perez-C, Michael A. Taylor-CF, Adalberto Mondesi-SS, Nicky Lopez-2B
Projected Rotation: Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, Brady Singer, Mike Minor, Kris Bubic
Closer: Greg Holland
Projected Record: 63-99