Baseball 2021 (NL East)

There's no question which division is the best in baseball.  Frankly, it isn't even close.  Instead of the NL East, it should be called the NL Beast.  Because that's what it is.  This division has five legitimately good teams, all of whom could end up playing deep into October.  Yet at least two of them won't even make the playoffs.  The division is THAT competitive.

So who's gonna win it?  The smart money's on the Braves, who had a 3-1 lead on the Dodgers in the NLCS last season before running out of gas.  But let's not forget the Nationals are just two years removed from a World Series title and have one of the most intimidating rotations in the game.  And if you think the Mets aren't gonna be a factor, you're an idiot.  Now that they have an owner who actually cares, they're gonna be in the conversation regularly moving forward.

You'll notice that my projected win totals are actually fairly low for how good I think these teams are.  But that's exactly why I have their win totals in the high 80s/low 90s.  They're gonna beat the crap out of each other!  They're not gonna have a chance to load up on wins against lesser division opponents like the Dodgers will.  And, ultimately, I think it's gonna be the intradivision record that decides who wins the NL East.

No matter what, I expect there to be two playoff teams from this division.  As for which two those are, it really could come down to who stays healthy.  That's what doomed the Nationals last year.  If everybody stays mostly healthy all year, though, this will be a wild, five-team race from April all the way until October 3!

1. Atlanta Braves: Had the NLCS been a normal amount of days last season, we'd probably still be talking about the Dodgers' championship drought.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves are able to finish the job this season.  Because this team is just as good as it was in 2020, maybe even better.  Because now they actually have a rotation after using everybody but me as a starting pitcher last year.  It's not Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz.  But it's a serviceable rotation.  Which is what they need to hang with the pitching of the Mets and Nationals.

Which isn't to say Atlanta is completely without its flaws.  I have no idea what their late-inning plans are, and they still haven't officially named a closer.  They also really would've benefited had the universal DH been made permanent.  Instead, they have to play Marcell Ozuna in the outfield, which means either Johan Camargo or Christian Pache (or both) has to sit.  Although, that also means they have two valuable weapons off the bench.  And that depth I think will make the difference.  Which is why I'm picking the Braves to win their fourth straight division title.
Projected Lineup: Ozzie Albies-2B, Ronald Acuna Jr.-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Marcell Ozuna-LF, Austin Riley-3B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Ender Inciarte-CF, Dansby Swanson-SS
Projected Rotation: Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson, Drew Smyly
Closer: Will Smith
Projected Record: 93-69

2. New York Mets: These aren't the same old Mets.  Not even close!  New owner Steve Cohen has made that abundantly clear!  Of course, there have been high hopes for the Mets heading into the new season plenty of times before, only for reality to set in, fluky "that's the Mets" things to happen, and the end up finishing below .500.  But it does seem different this time.  The Francisco Lindor trade was just the start, and they were probably George Springer's second choice.  They also made a pretty aggressive push to get D.J. LeMahieu to switch boroughs.

My point is that it's not just Mets fans with high expectations anymore.  The owner has them, too.  And he'll do what it takes for them to win.  It should pay off this season.  If not with a division title, at least with a wild card berth.  Although (and this is a big although), they need the pitching staff to stay healthy.  They can work around an injury or two in the lineup (the Mets are another NL team that would love to permanently have a DH...that way they can get Dom Smith out of left field!).  An injury in the rotation, though, would be much more difficult to overcome.  And in the NL East, that could make all the difference. 
Projected Lineup: Jeff McNeil-2B, Francisco Lindor-SS, Pete Alonso-1B, Michael Conforto-RF, Dominic Smith-LF, James McCann-C, J.D. Davis-3B, Brandon Nimmo-CF
Projected Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, David Peterson
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 92-70

3. Washington Nationals: It's both a good thing and a bad thing that the Nationals have built their team around pitching.  Having three No. 1 starters (Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin) is obviously great.  But they're kinda screwed if one of them gets hurt and is out for an extended period!  Investing so much money in the rotation also means there isn't much left to spend elsewhere, which led to them losing Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon as free agents in back-to-back offseasons.

Last year, their anemic offense was clearly a problem, and one of the big reasons why they didn't make the playoffs.  So it was nice to see them go out and get some guys to actually put around Juan Soto in the lineup.  The Josh Bell trade was a home run.  He's a perfect fit in this lineup.  The Kyle Schwarber signing was a little more curious.  They must've been planning on still having a DH.  Because that's the only position Schwarber should be playing!  Instead, they have to put him in left field.  We'll see if his bat is worth the trade-off.
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner-SS, Carter Kieboom-3B, Juan Soto-RF, Josh Bell-1B, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Yan Gomes-C, Victor Robles-CF, Luis Garcia-2B
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Jon Lester, Austin Voth
Closer: Brad Hand
Projected Record: 87-75

4. Philadelphia Phillies: Ah, Joe Girardi's Philadelphia Phillies.  In a way, you've gotta feel for them.  If they were in another division, they'd be seen as a potential playoff team.  But in the NL East, they're only the fourth-best team.  Which means they need both everything to go right on their end and everything to go wrong for multiple teams in front of them.  And that's just not gonna happen.  So, unfortunately another year of high expectations will end with a .500ish record.

The Phillies' biggest problem, frankly, is the bullpen.  It doesn't matter how many runs you score or how few your starters give up if the bullpen gives them all back!  While they've improved the bullpen, it's still their biggest weakness.  And that just adds to the pressure on the starters.  Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are excellent (which they need to be in a division this loaded with starting pitching).  But the back of their rotation simply doesn't stack up to the three teams above them.  So, it really might come down to Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins and Co. to determine how many games the Phillies can win by outscoring their opponent.  Which isn't impossible with that lineup!
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen-LF, J.T. Realmuto-C, Bryce Harper-RF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, Alec Bohm-3B, Didi Gregorius-SS, Jean Segura-2B, Scott Kingery-CF
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, Matt Moore, Chase Anderson
Closer: Archie Bradley
Projected Record: 81-81

5. Miami Marlins: I pick the Marlins to finish last in the division with full knowledge that they made the playoffs last season.  That's all you need to know about how good the NL East is!  Because these aren't the Marlins of old.  They've got a lot of legit young talent and will probably be the best last-place team in baseball.  I wouldn't even be surprised to see them finish near .500.  So, this projection is nothing about them.  It's about the other four teams in the division (as well as the fact that they play the AL East in interleague).

However, the Marlins have the pitching to hang with anybody, especially at the top of the rotation with Sandy Alcantara and Sixto Sanchez.  And you know they enter this season with a ton of confidence after last year, when the preseason projections were pretty much the same, yet they finished second and got the wild card berth while the Mets, Nationals and Phillies all stayed home.  Still, will they be able to sustain that over a full, 162-game season?  Maybe they can.  I just think it's more likely that the short season had at least some role in their 2020 run.  If they prove me wrong, though, I'd have no problem with that!
Projected Lineup: Jazz Chisholm-2B, Starling Marte-CF, Jesus Aguilar-1B, Adam Duvall-RF, Corey Dickerson-LF, Brian Anderson-3B, Jorge Alfaro-C, Miguel Rojas-SS
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sanchez, Pablo Hernandez, Elieser Hernandez, Nick Neidert
Closer: Anthony Bass
Projected Record: 72-90