The Games Will Go On

The internet being what it is, people tend to use it as a means of spreading paranoia.  And that paranoia can spread pretty fast.  That's certainly the case right now, with fears about coronavirus leading to speculation that the Olympics will be postponed or cancelled.  Neither of which is remotely being considered at the present time.

All of this panic started a few days ago when IOC Vice President Dick Pound went on the record saying that they had until the end of May before having to make any sort of decision about the Tokyo Games.  Pound was speaking for himself, but the IOC didn't have any response to his comments, suggesting they're on the same page.  Although, the IOC officially has no position and has even told the Japanese organizers to "proceed as planned" with their preparations.

But that hasn't stopped people from freaking out.  And, to be quite frank about it, that freaking out is a major overreaction to something that may not even be an issue five months from now.  I'm not trying to downplay coronavirus or the health risk that it causes.  But five months is a long time.  We have no idea what things will be like come July.  After all, they were saying the same thing about Zika four years ago, and the Rio Games went off no problem.

If this were two years from now and we were talking about the world coming to China in February, it would be a completely different story.  The IOC would have no choice but to cancel the Winter Games in Beijing.  That would be an unnecessary and irresponsible risk.  We're not talking about the 2022 Winter Games, though.  We're talking about the the Summer Games in Japan.  Which is NOT the country where the coronavirus outbreak started.

Yes, coronavirus has already led to the cancellation/postponement/relocation of a number of major sporting events, including several Olympic qualifiers.  However, those events were scheduled to take place now or in the coming weeks...when it's still dangerous to be in the affected areas.  And many of them were scheduled for China, the very heart of the pandemic.

None of these events are remotely close to the size and scale of the Olympics, either.  Cancelling/postponing/relocating them is a whole lot easier than it would be to do the same with the largest sporting event on the planet.  Which isn't even taking into consideration all of the other factors that go into putting on an Olympics.

Which is why a postponement isn't just unlikely, it's impractical.  TV networks from all over the world have spent billions of dollars and allotted hours of programming for an Olympics that's scheduled to be held in July and August.  You can't just suddenly change that to October and expect the TV networks to be OK with it.  And that's not even mentioning the international federations, who would then have to juggle all of their calendars on the fly to accommodate the Olympics suddenly taking place three months later than planned.

Likewise, the athletes have been training with specific dates in mind.  They've designed their entire workout calendars and competition schedules knowing when the prelim and final of their event is.  They've done everything so that they can peak in July-August.  Now you want to tell them to push everything back three months?  When they're already this deep into their training cycle?

And you can't just do what World Athletics has done with the World Indoor Championships and delay the Olympics a year.  Because that screws up schedules beyond just the Olympics.  Most Olympic sports hold their World Championships in odd years, meaning those would all have to be postponed, impacting all of those host cities that are deep into preparations.  Not to mention throwing off the entire cycle by having a five-year gap between Olympics, followed a three-year gap.  (You'd also have two Olympics within roughly six months of each other, which is not a scenario anyone in the Olympic Movement wants to see.)

Moving the Games isn't a practical option, either.  For starters, there's the billions of dollars that the Japanese organizers have already spent and the thousands of tickets that have already been sold.  But beyond that, an Olympics is a huge undertaking.  That's why they're awarded seven years in advance.  It takes that long for all the planning (it's actually more like a 10-year process when you take the bid process into account).  You can't just throw it together in a couple months.

London has offered to step in as a replacement, a suggestion that was quickly dismissed as inappropriate (which I completely agree with).  Likewise, Pound has rejected the suggestion that if the Games were to be moved from Tokyo, the different sports could be scattered all over the world.  That's not an Olympics.  That's a bunch of individual World Championships.  We already have those in every sport.  The Olympics bring all of those sports together.  That's kinda the point.

Of the three alternatives, cancellation is the only one that would be viable.  And even then, it should only be considered a last resort.  The only time in history the Olympics have been cancelled was because of the two World Wars, when the entire world was understandably preoccupied.  Needless to say, those were entirely different situations than what we have right now with coronavirus.

Even though cancellation is the only viable scenario if it comes to that, it would still result in a tremendous hit.  The IOC has a reserve fund, the primary purpose of which is so that the Olympic Movement can withstand the cancellation of a Games.  But cancelling Tokyo would deplete that reserve, since there would be no broadcast revenue coming in.  And that would impact every organization that relies on IOC funding.

Not to mention the financial blow to Japan.  The country has spent billions preparing for these Games.  They're not getting that money back.  If the Games were cancelled, the organizers wouldn't be getting the ticket revenue they anticipated when preparing their budget.  Likewise, with no fans from around the world traveling to Tokyo, nobody's booking flights or staying in Japanese hotels or spending money while in the country.  It would be devastating across the board.  The effects would be felt in so many different areas.

Then there are the fans.  What are you going to tell the millions of Japanese people who've already bought tickets?  Or those from around the world planning a once-in-a-lifetime trip to Tokyo?  I'm sure Tokyo would be awarded another Olympics as compensation.  It's only fair.  But the next one available isn't until 2032.  That's 12 years from now!

Is coronavirus serious?  Absolutely.  Is it something we should be concerned about?  Yes.  Will/should it impact the Olympics?  It's too soon to say.  But I've got a strong feeling that the Games will go on as planned in Tokyo from July 24-August 9.