Once we get to this point, the game has been analyzed to death. Everything has been broken down to the point where you're wondering what else they could possibly find to talk about (yet they always find something). And you've also heard so much about them that you feel like you know both teams backwards and forwards...even though you can still only name a handful of players on each!
Well, we've finally made it! The hype is over, and it's time for the actual game. I'm gonna go out on a limb, too, and make a pair of bold predictions. I like the red team and the team that Joe Montana played for! (BTW, has there ever been a more perfect Tweet than Montana's "guarantee"?)
Most people are focusing on the matchup between the Chiefs offense and the 49ers defense. It's true that each team's strength is on that side of the ball. But if you think the 49ers are going to completely shut down Patrick Mahomes and Co., you're crazy! So, it really won't be a matter of stopping Kansas City's offense as much as keeping up with them, which falls squarely on Jimmy Garoppolo's hands.
Garoppolo--unfairly--got a lot of slack for throwing only eight passes in the NFC Championship Game. But the 49ers were totally dominating the game on the ground so he didn't need to pass! And why mess with what's working? Although, while that criticism was unfair, the general point behind it is correct. The 49ers are a running team. In the Super Bowl, they'd like to continue doing what got them there. The Chiefs, on the other hand, would love to see Garoppolo throw 35-40 passes.
I also don't think the Kansas City defense gets nearly enough credit. I said that in December when they went on that run, and I've said it throughout the playoffs. Look at what they did in the AFC Championship Game. Derrick Henry had run all over both the Patriots and the Ravens in Tennessee's upset wins, and everyone was expecting him to do the same against Kansas City. But the Chiefs completely shut down the run and Henry was a non-factor (of course, the Titans had to throw in the fourth quarter when they were behind).
While the Titans and 49ers are both rushing teams, there's a big difference between the two. Tennessee is pretty much a one-trick pony. San Francisco has three different running backs they can throw at you, and stopping all three of them is very difficult. Raheem Mostert is technically No. 3 on the depth chart, yet he's the one who ran for 220 yards and four carries against Green Bay while Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman had just seven carries for 23 yards combined. Yet Kansas City could easily shut down Mostert in the Super Bowl, only to see Breida or Coleman go off.
Of course, it's easier to run the ball when you have the lead, which is where the concerns about Garoppolo come in. Because San Francisco's only real receiving threats are Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle...who combined for one catch in the NFC Championship Game! The Chiefs know this. Which means they'll be able to pound the line, play the corners 1-on-1 against the wide receivers, and leave the Honey Badger free to deal with Kittle. And they can play to stop the run until the 49ers show them something in the passing game. So, it'll be up to Garoppolo to keep Kansas City honest.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have no such problems on offense. They have so many weapons and can hurt you in so many ways that you have no idea what they're going to do. Case in point, Patrick Mahomes' tightrope-walking TD run down the sideline that was the turning point of the AFC Championship Game. There aren't many quarterbacks in the NFL who can do that. Which is part of what makes Kansas City so hard to defend. You have to respect Mahomes' ability to run, but you can't forget about his arm.
And Mahomes has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Travis Kelce is the best tight end in football, Tyreek Hill might be the fastest player in the game, and Sammy Watkins can hurt you if you forget about him. I haven't even mentioned the running game yet. It's the forgotten part of the Chiefs' offense. But if Damien Williams and/or LeSean McCoy gets going, Mahomes won't be the only Kansas City rusher the 49ers have to worry about.
That's why the Chiefs are favored in the game. And that's why they're my pick. They're simply too explosive. This is a team that went from down 20 to a 20-point win in the Divisional Playoffs, then went had a halftime lead after trailing 17-7 midway through the second quarter in the AFC Championship Game. Simply put, Kansas City is never out of the game. If San Francisco is able to run the ball effectively and keep it out of Mahomes' hands, though...
Let's not forget the experience factor, either. This is new to both teams. But the Chiefs have been preparing for this game since they lost to the Patriots last January. The moment's not going to overwhelm them the way it clearly did the Rams last year. Kansas City is ready and knows they belong. I'm not saying the 49ers don't feel the same way. But they're much more likely to be "happy to be there" than the Chiefs, who had one goal entering the season and are 60 minutes away from achieving it.
How can you not want to see Andy Reid win a Super Bowl too? Much like Tony Dungy 13 years ago, he's the sentimental favorite. Reid has achieved so much in his career, both in Philadelphia and Kansas City, but he's still missing one thing. I'm not saying he needs a Lombardi Trophy to cement his legacy. But it's the only bullet point left to check on an otherwise Hall-of-Fame-caliber resume.
So, yes, I want the Chiefs to win. I think they deserve it. But that's not the reason I'm picking them. I'm picking them because I truly think they're the better team. (And we all know what Andy Reid can do when he has two weeks to prepare!) Kansas City wins 31-24 and Tyreek Hill scores two touchdowns (one return, one receiving) to take home MVP honors.
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