As people continue to freak out about coronavirus and wonder whether or not the Olympics will be held, it's time to start thinking about the event that was on the receiving end of its very own freak out a few months ago. After seeing so many runners collapse in the heat at the World Championships in Doha, the IOC unilaterally decided to move the Olympic marathons out of Tokyo and north to Sapporo, where it's not nearly as hot. It'll be hot in Atlanta, though, where the U.S. Olympic Trials will determine the six marathoners who'll be headed to Sapporo.
At first, it wasn't going to be top three go to the Olympics as has been the case at the U.S. Olympic Trials for as long as anybody can remember. However, since World Athletics has this new world ranking system that they put into place last year, the qualifying standards for the Olympics became substantially more difficult.
Since athletes generally don't run more than two marathons a year, they were given an additional opportunity by their performance in those races. A top 10 finish at last year's World Championships or in one of the six World Marathon Majors (Boston, Chicago, New York, London, Berlin, Tokyo) would be considered as having reached the standard. So would a top five finish at a Gold Label marathon. For a marathon to earn Gold Label status, the race needs to include a certain number of runners ranked among the top 200 in the world.
That was no issue on the women's side, where at least 10 American runners had that ranking. That's not the case on the men's side, though, which led to plenty of confusion among both racers and organizers. USATF originally announced that the top three finishers with the standard would make the team. Again, not a problem with the women. But on the men's side, what exactly would that mean?
One of the best things about the U.S. Olympic Trials is the straightforward, winner-take-all aspect of it. The top three make the team. That's it. Can't be more clear than that. Except that might not have necessarily been the case, potentially taking away the greatest element of the Olympic Trials.
Fortunately, World Athletics understood the importance of the U.S. Olympic Trials (which is never fast because people care about their place, not their time) and granted both races Gold Label status. Which means that the 2020 Olympic Trials will be exactly the same as years past. The first three men and the first three women across the line will be on the plane to Japan.
But who will fill those six spots? That's the million dollar question. And there are plenty of candidates on both the men's and women's side. Which means we're going to have a pair of intense races on our hands!
American women have enjoyed a lot of success in the marathon in recent years. Shalane Flanagan won New York in 2017 and Des Linden won Boston in 2018. Amy Cragg, meanwhile, won bronze at the 2017 World Championships. Although, of those three, only Linden will be going for the Olympic team. Flanagan is retired and Cragg is out with an injury (but could, conceivably try for a spot on the track in the 10K).
Linden has to be a favorite to finish in the top three and make the team, but is by no means a lock. In fact, the women's field is so deep that I can conceivably see any of the top eight or so contenders earning a top-three showing. (And some of whom will have a very good shot of making the team in the 10,000 if they don't in the marathon.)
So who am I picking to join Linden on the Olympic marathon team? My first choice is Emily Sisson, who moved up to the marathon last year and finished sixth in London. I've just got a feeling about her. She's a great racer, and I think the competitive field will help her. I see Sisson finishing top three and making her first Olympic team.
My second women's choice is more of a dark horse. Kellyn Taylor (not to be confused with Kelly Taylor, Jennie Garth's character on Beverly Hills 90210). She's never made a World or Olympic team, but has come painfully close so many times (she was sixth in 2016, then finished fourth in the 10K Trials, and she finished third in the 10K last year, but didn't have the standard). This time, I think it'll be different. We'll be calling her "Kellyn Taylor, Olympian" at day's end.
On the men's side, Galen Rupp is the clear favorite. His first-ever marathon was the 2016 Trials...which he won. Rupp followed that up with an Olympic bronze in Rio (where he was also fifth in the 10K) before winning Chicago and taking second in Boston in 2017. He's one of the most prominent athletes who used to train under controversial and since-suspended coach Alberto Salazar. Rupp hasn't faced any sanctions himself and has switched to a new coach. We'll see how much of an impact that has, but I don't think it'll be enough to knock him out of the top three.
For the second spot, I'll go with Jared Ward. He finished third to make the team four years ago, then placed a respectable sixth in Rio. He was sixth in New York in each of the last two years and was the only U.S. man besides Rupp to have the Olympic standard before the Gold Label thing was decided. I don't see three people beating him.
Lastly, I'll take Scott Fauble to make his first Olympic team. Like Kellyn Taylor, he just missed the team in 2016, when he finished fourth in the 10K. Like Kellyn Taylor, he's put up some solid results in marathons since then. He was seventh overall and the first American at the Boston Marathon last year, beating Ward by 16 seconds. Wouldn't it be cool if they go 2-3 in either order and both make the team?
It's really anybody's race in Atlanta, though. Because like the women, there are plenty of men who can go top three and make the team. U.S. marathoning is just that stacked! And whoever makes it will have done the hard part. They'll know they're Olympians.
Although, it shouldn't be hard to feel like an Olympian even before the race begins. The Marathon Trials are being held in Atlanta on the same course they used in 1996. The start/finish line will be in Centennial Park, and they'll even light the torch for the occasion. The perfect setting to choose the members of the next Olympic team.
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