This year I waited as late as possible to do my mock bracket. The selections are always in such a state of flux that whoever you think is going to be in the field at the start of Championship Week inevitably ends up out of the tournament. Likewise, there's always that team that makes a surprise run in a major conference and ends up stealing a bid from a bubble team.
There aren't really any of those teams this year, though. Rhode Island probably played its way in by getting to the A-10 final. The only thing really at stake is whether or not they'll have to go to Dayton for the First Four. Michigan is probably in win or lose, too. Especially after the week they've had.
Meanwhile, Army, Citadel, St. Francis and William & Mary are about to become a Group of Four. Because Northwestern isn't going to be sweating out Selection Sunday. After coming close so many times over the past 10 years, it looks like the Wildcats are finally going to break through and make their first NCAA Tournament appearance. There wasn't really any doubt prior to the Big Ten Tournament, but that semifinal run almost certainly locked it in.
I also find it difficult to believe they'll include all 11 ACC teams some people are projecting. There are eight locks, but if Wake Forest and/or Syracuse gets in, a trip to Dayton is in their future (I didn't think Syracuse belonged in last year, either, though, and look what happened). And if Syracuse got in over Monmouth last year, Illinois State better not be holding its breath tomorrow. Because Monmouth's resume last year was much better than Illinois State's is this year. I doubt they're even on the board. I'll be shocked if they get in. In fact, it's looking like Saint Mary's is getting the only mid-major at-large bid.
As for the 1-seeds, defending champion Villanova probably locked up No. 1 overall by winning the Big East Tournament. Kansas and North Carolina were already safe with their No. 1's, and their conference tournament losses shouldn't change that. That fourth No. 1 is interesting, though. Most people think it's Gonzaga's based on the Zags' body of work. I really have a feeling they're going to give it to the Pac-12 winner, though. But ultimately, it doesn't really matter. Because Gonzaga and the Pac-12 champion will be 1-2 in the West in either order.
Since I'm giving Villanova the No. 1 overall seed and Arizona (my projected Pac-12 winner) the last No. 1, that means it's East vs. West and Midwest vs. South in the Final Four.
Also, one other note on my bracket. Most of the conference champions in one-bid leagues have been crowed. There are a few to be decided tomorrow, but none of those teams are in the at-large conversation, so the field is set. If my projected winner of a mid-major tournament final loses, they'll simply be replaced by the team that beat them, which may or may not change seeds around.
EAST
Buffalo: 1-Villanova (1) vs. 16-Mount St. Mary's/South Dakota State, 8-Arkansas vs. 9-Oklahoma State
Orlando: 4-Louisville vs. 13-Princeton, 5-SMU vs. 12-Vermont
Tulsa: 3-Baylor vs. 14-Iona, 6-Miami vs. 11-Xavier
Greenville: 2-Duke vs. 15-Texas State, 7-Florida vs. 10-Michigan State
WEST
Sacramento: 1-Arizona (4) vs. 16-Texas Southern, 8-Virginia Tech vs. 9-Providence
Milwaukee: 4-Wisconsin vs. 13-East Tennessee State, 5-Iowa State vs. 12-Nevada
Indianapolis: 3-Notre Dame vs. 14-Florida Gulf Coast, 6-Creighton vs. 11-Kansas State/Rhode Island
Salt Lake City: 2-Gonzaga vs. 15-North Dakota, 7-Minnesota vs. 10-Vanderbilt
MIDWEST
Tulsa: 1-Kansas (2) vs. 16-Jacksonville State/North Carolina Central, 8-Wichita State vs. 9-VCU
Milwaukee: 4-Purdue vs. 13-UNC Wilmington, 5-Butler vs. 12-Wake Forest/USC
Orlando: 3-Florida State vs. 14-Kent State, 6-Maryland vs. 11-Middle Tennessee State
Salt Lake City: 2-Oregon vs. 15-UC Irvine, 7-Saint Mary's vs. 10-Marquette
SOUTH
Greenville: 1-North Carolina (3) vs. 16-Northern Kentucky, 8-South Carolina vs. 9-Northwestern
Buffalo: 4-West Virginia vs. 13-Winthrop, 5-Virginia vs. 12-Bucknell
Sacramento: 3-UCLA vs. 14-New Mexico State, 6-Cincinnati vs. 11-Seton Hall
Indianapolis: 2-Kentucky vs. 15-New Orleans, 7-Michigan vs. 10-Dayton
Bids by Conference: ACC (9), Big East (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), Atlantic 10 (3), American (2), WCC (2)
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