Was there a member of the Kansas City Royals that was actually in camp during the WBC? Seriously, it seemed like there was at least two Royals on every team! I guess that just goes to show how loaded Kansas City is, which makes sense seeing as they're just a year removed from winning the World Series. In fact, the AL Central has become one of the best divisions in all of baseball. With the Indians winning the pennant last year, it's three straight for the division, and it's not unrealistic to think it could become four straight this season.
And the AL Central consists of more than just Kansas City and Cleveland. Detroit will definitely be in the mix, too. When you've got a loaded lineup anchored by Miguel Cabrera and a pitching staff that includes the Rookie of the Year and a rejuvenated Justin Verlander, you're going to be in the conversation. Especially because all three of these teams are capable of making a deep October run. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see all three make the playoffs, especially since they'll get to beat up on the Twins and White Sox a combined 38 times each.
So which of the three will win the division? That's anybody's guess. I really see this being a three-team race all season. Although one injury to a key player could change things. (I say this, but Cleveland still made the World Series without its best player not named Francisco Lindor and two starting pitchers last year.)
1. Kansas City Royals: How sudden and shocking was Yordano Ventura's death? A lot of those season preview magazines picked the Royals to win the AL Central, mainly because of Ventura as their ace. So, yeah, it was shocking. And it was a big blow to Kansas City. I can see the Royals making a run at a starting pitcher if they're in the race at the end, but I can also see them selling off their pending free agents if things are going south in late July. I think they'll rally behind Ventura's death and try to win for him this season, though. Especially since they likely know that they won't be able to re-sign everyone, so this is the last time this group will be together. And they've still got that ridiculous bullpen, even after trading Wade Davis to the Cubs for Jorge Soler. He replaces Alex Rios At DH, they've replaced Kendrys Morales with Brandon Moss, who, frankly, should be in the American League. Neither one is an upgrade, but they're serviceable enough to fit into the Kansas City lineup. The biggest loss (other than Ventura) will be Jarrod Dyson, though. The Royals' bench is nowhere near as deep as it used to be. I also have to point out the irony of Drew Butera knocking Sal Perez out of the WBC. He must've wanted to be the starting catcher really bad! Alas, it looks like Sal's going to be ready for Opening Day. I'd also be remiss to not mention the fact that Eric Hosmer is one of my favorite players in the entire league. All the guy does is hit.
Projected Lineup: Alcides Escobar-SS, Alex Gordon-LF, Lorenzo Cain-CF, Eric Hosmer-1B, Mike Moustakas-3B, Salvador Perez-C, Brandon Moss-DH, Jorge Soler-RF, Whit Merrifield-2B
Projected Rotation: Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas, Nathan Karns
Closer: Kelvin Herrera
Projected Record: 90-72
2. Cleveland Indians: They went to the World Series without Michael Brantley, Danny Salazar or Carlos Carrasco. They also have one of the best managers in the game in Terry Francona. So why do I think they'll finish second this year? Because the Indians' 2016 was basically a perfect storm, and I'm not sure I see everyone having a career year again. Although, adding Edwin Encarnacion to that lineup was a major steal. I also give it until the All-Star Break before Encarnacion and Carlos Santana swap positions. It just makes more sense to do that. Encarnacion isn't a great first baseman, but he's perfectly capable over there, and Santana really was just over there because they needed a position for him (which is also why he played first base for the DR in the WBC). And Francisco Lindor is a freak of nature. They just have a lot of guys who are going to miss the start of the season, though. If they can weather the storm until Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall come back, they'll be in good shape. I'm also curious to see how Andrew Miller will be used. They obviously can't use him the way they did in the playoffs, so I'm thinking he gets the eighth inning in front of Cody Allen the way he was with the Yankees in front of Aroldis Chapman (both of those trades really worked out, huh?) at the beginning of last season. His postseason was ridiculous, but he needs something resembling a normal workload if he's going to be just as effective during the regular season. Even in the World Baseball Classic Miller wasn't automatic. Can that be chalked up to playing competitive games in March? Or is it a sign of something else?
Projected Lineup: Carlos Santana-1B, Brandon Guyer-RF, Francisco Lindor-SS, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Jose Ramirez-2B, Tyler Naquin-CF, Yan Gomes-C, Giovany Urshela-3B, Abraham Almonte-LF (lineup gets much better once Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall are added)
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco
Closer: Cody Allen
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Detroit Tigers: The window is closing on the Tigers, if it hasn't already. They've got a ton of stars and are going to win a lot of games, but that's a veteran core, which looks very susceptible to injury. And this is a team where an injury could be catastrophic, so you know they had to be concerned when Miguel Cabrera had to leave Venezuela's second-to-last WBC game. By all accounts he's fine, but it's definitely cause for alarm and something the Tigers are going to worry about all season. Fortunately, they can have him DH now and then and not really lose much with Victor Martinez playing first base. If J.D. Martinez has to miss extended time, that could make just as big a difference in the middle of that lineup. There are also some questions about their rotation. Is the Verlander of old really back? Will Fulmer avoid a sophomore slump after his Rookie of the Year season? Can Anibal Sanchez get back to form and be a valuable piece of the rotation again? And the Tigers' bullpen issues, which they have seemingly every year, are back. It's not as pronounced an issue as it was in the past, but Brad Ausmus is definitely going to need to find his reliable guy in front of K-Rod and establish those defined roles. If everything goes right, I can see them winning 90-plus games and winning the division. If nothing goes right, I can see them finishing below .500. I think somewhere in the middle is more likely.
Projected Lineup: Ian Kinsler-2B, Justin Upton-LF, Miguel Cabrera-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, J.D. Martinez-RF, Nick Castellanos-3B, Mikie Mahtook-CF, James McCann-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann, Daniel Norris, Anibal Sanchez
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Projected Record: 85-77
4. Minnesota Twins: It's not really possible for the Twins to be as bad as they were last season, so at least they've got that going for them. In fact, with the White Sox in a complete rebuild mode, I expect Minnesota to work its way out of the AL Central cellar. But they're not going to be surprise contenders like they were two years ago, either. That's not too far away, though. Especially with a solid young core of guys like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Max Kepler. They're kinda like the Rays, though. They've got a handful of those guys, but not enough. It's also difficult for them to attract free agents, which is why the signing of Jason Castro was so huge. He gives them another veteran to build around. This is still Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier's team, though. It's really on the mound where the Twins are going to struggle, though. Ervin Santana is more of a No. 3 starter than a No. 1. They'll also get a full season from another former Angel, Hector Santiago. In fact, their entire starting rotation from the end of last season returns in tact. Problem is none of them are anything worth writing home about. And I really like closer Glen Perkins. It's just a shame he doesn't get more than two save opportunities a week.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Brian Dozier-2B, Joe Mauer-1B, Miguel Sano-3B, Max Kepler-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, Byung-Ho Park-DH, Jason Castro-C, Jorge Polanco-SS
Projected Rotation: Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tyler Duffey
Closer: Glen Perkins
Projected Record: 72-90
5. Chicago White Sox: Chris Sale is gone. Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera are likely to follow. There's going to be some excellent baseball played in Chicago this season. It just won't be on the South Side. Sale changing his Sox was their official declaration that they're going to be rebuilding. And that likely means for as many times as they waive the "W" at Wrigley, they'll be waiving the "L" at Comiskey. At least at the start of the season, they aren't completely terrible on paper. I fully expect that to change by July, though. And it's not exactly like their current roster is full of All-Stars. Peter Bourjos in center field? How many teams does that make it now who think this guy is actually a Major League starter? He isn't. But at least with the White Sox, he won't be taking at-bats away from someone who actually deserves to be playing. They wisely locked up Tim Anderson to a long-term deal, banking on him as their shortstop of the future and face of the franchise as they move on from the Sale Era. Once they trade Frazier at the All-Star Break, Yoan Moncada will join him on the left side of the infield, where they'll be set for years. I grew to really like Nate Jones in the WBC. Will he also be traded, or will he become the closer when Robertson is?
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Melky Cabrera-LF, Jose Abreu-1B, Todd Frazier-3B, Avisail Garcia-RF, Matt Davidson-DH, Omar Narvaez-C, Tyler Saladino-2B, Peter Bourjos-CF
Projected Rotation: Jose Quintana, Miguel Gonzalez, Derek Holland, James Shields, Carlos Rodon
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 70-92
I've got Cleveland returning to the playoffs as a wild card team, but I still think this is Kansas City's division to win. That's going to be a great battle to watch all season, though.
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