The Chicago Cubs are the defending World Champions. It's been six months, but it's still a weird thing to wrap my head around. We're gonna have to get used to it, though. Because the Cubs are going to be good for a while. Once the Red Sox finally won, they won three in seven years. Don't be surprised to see the same thing happen on the North Side.
Last season, the Cubs cruised to the division title. And there's very little to suggest that won't happen again this year. The Cardinals will make their annual push for a playoff berth, but it will likely only result in, at best, a wild card. The Cubs are just that much stronger than the rest of the division. And if not for the Cubs, this would be one of the worst divisions in baseball. Because the Brewers and Reds are just bad.
Will the Cubs win 100 games again? That's really the biggest question surrounding the World Champs entering the season. Well, that, and can they become the first repeat champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees? We'll have to wait until October to see if the repeat title thing plays itself out. The 100 win thing, though. That really depends on how much the Cubs beat up on the rest of the NL Central.
1. Chicago Cubs: If there's any World Series winner since the 2000 Yankees that looked like they might repeat, it's this Cubs team. They didn't lose a lot from last season, and, in fact, they might've improved in many ways. They solved the outfield and closer problem by trading Jorge Soler to the Royals for Wade Davis. That also makes it possible for them to play Javy Baez at second base everyday. Some projections (including MLB.com's) have Albert Almora and Jon Jay sharing center field duties and Javy being the backup infielder, but Javy Baez is one of the most dynamic players on the team. I know Joe Maddon is famous for his moving guys around, but I'm playing Baez at second, Zobrist in right and Heyward in center. That's their best alignment. Although, you know the only guys not going anywhere are Kris Bryant at third and Anthony Rizzo at first. Seeing as they're the two best players on the team, that's who you should build the lineup around. That outstanding rotation lost Jason Hammel, but the Cubs replaced him with Brett Anderson, which is just about an even trade. They knew Chapman was a rental, and it certainly worked out. Davis is a different type of closer (he's not a lefty throwing 104), but he's just as dynamic as Chapman. And the Cubs probably have the Minor League pieces to trade at the deadline if they need to. There's no reason to believe they won't be playing in October for the third straight year, or even sipping champagne for the second straight season (after going 108 years without a title).
Projected Lineup: Addison Russell-SS, Ben Zobrist-RF, Kris Bryant-3B, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Jason Heyward-RF, Javier Baez-2B, Willson Contreras-C
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey, Brett Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
Closer: Wade Davis
Projected Record: 95-67
2. St. Louis Cardinals: Every year without fail, the St. Louis Cardinals somehow manage to find their way into the postseason. That didn't happen last year, though. And, to make things worse for them, they watched the Cubs win the World Series. So they went out and got Chicago's starting center fielder and leadoff hitter. Dexter Fowler will be in center and Yadi Molina, of course, will be catching. Yadi's the heart and soul of this team, and he would've been the MVP of the WBC if Puerto Rico had won the championship game. Matt Carpenter was originally on the Team USA roster for the WBC, but withdrew. He'll move to first base this season and Jhonny Peralta will shift to third, while Aledmys Diaz will stay at short. Most importantly it moves Matt Adams, who should really be DHing for an AL team, to the bench. The addition of Fowler, meanwhile, gives them an actual center fielder for the first time in a couple years. I still don't get what they see in Randall Grichuk and Stephen Pisciotty, though. Ultimately, the Cardinals are going to do what they always do. Whether or not they make it to the Wild Card Game really depends on the pitching. They need their starters to stay healthy, which is not always the case with these guys. I also question the choice of Seung Hwan Oh as the closer. Especially with Jonathan Broxton and Brett Cecil on the roster. The Cardinals know what they're doing, though. No matter how much better you think other teams might be, they're the ones that end up playing in October.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-CF, Randall Grichuk-LF, Matt Carpenter-1B, Yadier Molina-C, Jhonny Peralta-SS, Stephen Pisciotty-RF, Aledmys Diaz-SS, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Mike Leake
Closer: Seung Hwan Oh
Projected Record: 91-71
3. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh didn't lose the Wild Card Game last year! That's because they weren't in it, though. After three straight playoff appearances, the Pirates slipped back below .500 last season. Which is what makes this team such an enigma. Because they certainly have the talent to return to the postseason. But another finish right around the .500 mark seems just as likely. It really could depend on how Andrew McCutchen adjusts to right field...and how well he bounces back after a down year in 2016. The Pirates also have to hope Gregory Polanco stays as locked in as he was in the World Baseball Classic, when he hit like .6-someting for the DR. They're going to score plenty. But pitching will be the key. Ivan Nova was really good for the Pirates after the trade from the Yankees, and he liked Pittsburgh so much he re-signed for two years. This looks like another A.J. Burnett situation. Taking some of the pressure off is that he's the No. 3 man in the Pittsburgh rotation. Gerrit Cole is a stud, but Jameson Taillon is the key. Will be just as effective as he was during his rookie year or will he go through a sophomore slump? They don't have the pitching depth to deal with sub-par starting, even if the bullpen is reasonably strong. This is one team that really needs to stay healthy, too. An injury, especially a significant one, could derail their season. But if everyone is healthy and effective, this could easily be a playoff team.
Projected Lineup: Josh Harrison-2B, Starling Marte-CF, Andrew McCutchen-RF, Gregory Polanco-LF, Francisco Cervelli-C, Josh Bell-1B, David Freese-3B, Jordy Mercer-SS
Projected Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Chad Kuhl, Tyler Glasnow
Closer: Tony Watson
Projected Record: 82-80
4. Milwaukee Brewers: There isn't much to look forward to in Milwaukee this year. The Brewers are in a complete rebuild, and in a division that includes the likes of the Cubs and Cardinals, that's going to translate into a lot of losses. Fortunately for them, they also share a division with the Cincinnati Reds, which means they may not finish last. And I say that because I like the Brewers' pieces a little more than the Reds'. It doesn't really start with Ryan Braun, either. It starts with Jonathan Villar and Travis Shaw, who got traded to Milwaukee after that excellent rookie year in Boston. They're just two of a lot of young guys expected to get major playing time with the Brewers this season. Another is Orlando Arcia, who played for Venezuela in the WBC and has the makings of a really good Major League shortstop. Other than Neftali Feliz, a former Rookie of the Year and an All-Star way back when, there isn't a single pitcher on this team with a name you'll recognize. Their top two starters were rookies last season, and no starting pitcher has more Major League experience than four-year veteran Wily Peralta, so it's safe to say their youth extends to the pitching staff. But if you're going to rebuild, that's the way to do it. If all these guys mature into the players the Brewers think they will, this team will be pretty good in about three years.
Projected Lineup: Jonathan Villar-2B, Keon Broxton-CF, Ryan Braun-LF, Domingo Santana-RF, Travis Shaw-3B, Eric Thames-1B, Orlando Arcia-SS, Jett Bandy-C
Projected Rotation: Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Wily Peralta, Chase Anderson, Jimmy Nelson
Closer: Neftali Feliz
Projected Record: 69-93
5. Cincinnati Reds: When they traded Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman before last season, it was a sign they were willing to concede being a contender. Then they made that even more obvious when they traded Jay Bruce to the Mets. Now Brandon Phillips is also gone, leaving just Joey Votto, whose contract really prevents his being moved, and Billy Hamilton as the faces of the team. Although, with those two, along with Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall and even Devin Mesoraco when he returns, will crush a lot of home runs. Especially playing in that tiny ballpark, the Reds will score a lot of runs. Just like they always do. It's up to the pitching to make those runs hold up, and I'm not sure that'll happen. Two of their starters, one of whom is very appropriately named, are rookies. And their No. 1 is Scott Feldman, who's been a back-of-the-rotation guy for much of his career. For any other team he'd be a No. 3, but in Cincinnati, he'll get the ball on Opening Day. Such is life for a team that's committed to what it's doing. Speaking of what it's doing, Cincinnati hasn't named a closer (despite signing Drew Storen). Opting instead for a closer by committee. They said that it's because they want to have more flexibility in the later innings, but I think it's really because they know there won't be many save situations and they just want an excuse to use their best relievers more. I'd like to say the Reds have a chance at contending, but they don't. The only things they'll be contending for are last place and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 Draft.
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Zack Cozart-SS, Joey Votto-1B, Adam Duvall-LF, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Scott Schebler-RF, Jose Peraza-2B, Tucker Barnhart-C
Projected Rotation: Scott Feldman, Brandon Finnegan, Rookie Davis, Amir Garrett, Cody Reed
Closer: Drew Storen
Projected Record: 65-97
So that's the NL Central. It's the Cubs' domain, and I don't see the Cardinals or Pirates being able to do anything to change that. Their best hopes for making the playoffs lie in the Wild Card Game. Meanwhile, they don't have to worry about the playoffs in Milwaukee or Cincinnati.
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