It's going to be an interesting year in the AL West. They've all done a lot of spending to prove they're among the big boys, but I'm not sure any of them will be able to pull it off. These teams are all flawed. It's really going to be a matter of whose flaws are exposed the least.
There's another big thing at play here, too. How many wins will they get over the Angels and A's? Remember a few years ago when the Angels had the best record in the American League, only to get swept by the Royals in the Division Series? It turned out all of those wins were a bit of a mirage because so many came against the AL West. The team that wins the division this season could have a similar problem. The top of the AL West is going to be very competitive with each other. What remains to be seen is how competitive they'll be with the rest of the American League.
1. Houston Astros: No team in the Majors was more active in the offseason than the Astros. And all of those transactions have to make Houston the AL West favorites. Although, if there's any cause of concern it's that all of these newcomers are veterans, so injury and decline are definitely things that you have to worry about. Especially since the Yankees essentially fired Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran might've been their best position player last season, but he's 40. Even still, getting Beltran to be the DH makes this lineup much deeper. And, unlike Evan Gattis, McCann can actually still catch, which is certainly a plus. All of these guys have been added to a lineup that already included Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer. A few years ago, Sports Illustrated declared the Astros would win the 2017 World Series. And they're going to hit. A lot. But for SI's prediction to ring true, they're going to need the pitching to keep pace. They need the Dallas Keuchel who won the Cy Young in 2015. Not the version they got last year. They also need their other starters to give them something worthwhile so that their dynamite bullpen doesn't get overused. The difference between first place and missing the playoffs entirely is very slim in this division. They're the best team, but they have very little margin for error.
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, George Springer-CF, Carlos Correa-SS, Carlos Beltran-DH, Josh Reddick-RF, Yulieski Gurriel-1B, Brian McCann-C, Alex Bregman-3B, Nori Aoki-LF
Projected Rotation: Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, Mike Fiers, Charlie Morton, Collin McHugh
Closer: Ken Giles
Projected Record: 89-73
2. Texas Rangers: The Rangers are a really good regular season team. That much we've established. But for some reason, they haven't been able to get past Toronto in the playoffs in either of the last two seasons. I think we're looking at a very similar script in 2017. Texas lost Ian Desmond, but got Mike Napoli back after a year in Cleveland. And, except for when he was getting thrown out at first on his own single, Jurickson Profar was on base for pretty much the entire WBC. The Rangers have had high hopes for him for years. Will he finally be healthy enough to be the player that we saw wearing a Dutch uniform? I hope so. He deserves a chance to finally show what he can do over the course of a full season. On the mound, they've got an outstanding 1-2 in Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. But their remaining starters are questionable, so it's an absolute must that those two remain healthy. The same can be said for newly-minted World Baseball Classic champion Sam Dyson. He became the Texas closer last year and had 38 saves as they won the division. But he's the only guy in the bullpen worth anything. Much like Houston, the lineup is stacked. Unlike the Astros, however, the bullpen is a weakness. That's clearly the Rangers' Achilles heel. And that's also why I give the Astros a slight edge in the AL West.
Projected Lineup: Shin-Soo Choo-DH, Elvis Andrus-SS, Adrian Beltre-3B, Mike Napoli-1B, Carlos Gomez-CF, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Rougned Odor-2B, Jurickson Profar-LF, Nomar Mazara-RF
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish, Martin Perez, A.J. Griffin, Mike Hauschild (Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner)
Closer: Sam Dyson
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Seattle Mariners: I really thought last year we were finally going to see the Mariners break through. And it sure looked like it was going to happen. But then they faded at the end and ended up on the outside looking in for the 15th consecutive season. They'll probably make it 16 in 2017. Because this team was better last year than it is now. Unlike the two Texas teams, the Mariners are built around their pitching staff. Mainly the big Venezuelan guy who deserves to pitch in the postseason at least once in his career. King Felix finally has some decent guys behind him and a worthwhile-enough lineup that he won't have to win every game 2-1. That lineup, obviously, is built around All-Stars Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. They also improved their defense with the addition of Jean Segura and got quicker with the addition of Jarrod Dyson, who gets the chance to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career. I'm just not sure they've got enough fire power to keep up with the Astros and Rangers. Seattle's strength is in its pitching. Their offense has the potential to be dynamic, though. It will need to be for them to end their playoff drought.
Projected Lineup: Jarrod Dyson-LF, Jean Segura-SS, Robinson Cano-2B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Kyle Seager-3B, Danny Valencia-1B, Mike Zunino-C, Mitch Haniger-RF, Leonys Martin-CF
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Drew Smyly, James Paxton, Yovani Gallardo
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 83-79
4. Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. Unfortunately, he doesn't have a very good team around him. At all. Which is crazy, seeing as the Angels have two sure-fire Hall of Famers (Trout and Albert Pujols) and boast the best defensive shortstop in the game in Andrelton Simmons. Problem is the "stars" on this team are few and far between, and it doesn't look like they're too eager to get any. So, basically, they're content to waste Mike Trout's prime. The pitching doesn't help, either. Jered Weaver was the one other constant on this team for years. Now he's gone and Garrett Richards is the staff "ace" (if that's what you want to call him). The rest of the rotation isn't much better, and the bullpen consists of a bunch of guys you've never heard of. The only "name" they've got back there is closer Huston Street, who's going to spend at least the first month of the season on the DL. Not that he'll miss out on too many save opportunities. I continue to be fascinated by the Angels. They've got the best player on the planet and have no reason not to be good. Yet we're entering another season where they're nothing more than an afterthought in the AL West. Maybe they'll surprise us all, it'll all come together, and they'll make a playoff run. I don't see it, though. The Astros, Rangers and Mariners are all better.
Projected Lineup: Cameron Maybin-LF, Andrelton Simmons-SS, Mike Trout-CF, Albert Pujols-DH, C.J. Cron-1B, Yunel Escobar-3B, Kole Calhoun-RF, Danny Espinosa-2B, Martin Maldonado-C
Projected Rotation: Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Ricky Nolasco, Matt Shoemaker, Jesse Chavez
Closer: Andrew Bailey (Huston Street)
Projected Record: 77-85
5. Oakland Athletics: Pretty soon, they'll be Oakland's only pro team. But they'll still be stuck playing in that dump. And they'll still have a hard time attracting free agents. Every time the A's are good, it's because they build up young talent that all gets to the Majors at the same time and they're able to keep them together for a few years before breaking it up. The break up for this team started with that major collapse and eventual AL Wild Card Game loss in 2014, and it sure looks like we're headed to Year III of the same. Although, it is possible they'll be better this season. And I can even see them battling the Angels to stay out of the cellar. They've brought in World Series hero Rajai Davis to play center field, and the lineup actually isn't that bad. I have a lot of questions about their starting pitching, though. Especially since Sonny Gray is going to start the season on the DL. If they end up where everyone thinks they will in July, we'll likely see the A's as sellers at the deadline. And I bet there are a ton of teams that would love to get their hands on Ryan Madson, Santiago Casilla and Sean Doolittle. Oakland's got a decent-looking bullpen. All they need is serviceable starting pitching to win games 3-2 in that ballpark. I'm not sure how serviceable that starting pitching will be, though. Although, every time I think the A's are going to suck, they somehow end up winning 90 games, so I'm definitely going to assume that's possible. It just doesn't seem likely.
Projected Lineup: Rajai Davis-CF, Jed Lowrie-2B, Stephen Vogt-C, Trevor Plouffe-3B, Yonder Alonso-1B, Matt Joyce-RF, Khris Davis-LF, Ryon Healy-DH, Marcus Semien-SS
Projected Rotation: Kendall Graveman, Sean Manaea, Jharel Cotton, Andrew Triggs, Sonny Gray
Closer: Ryan Madson
Projected Record: 64-98
And that, kids, is how I see things playing out in the American League this season. Unlike the NL, where there's a clear separation between the top teams and everybody else, things are a lot more open in the AL. There are a handful of teams that I can see not just making the playoffs, but making a deep run in October. In fact, there are only five teams that I don't think have any chance of competing: Tampa Bay, Minnesota, the White Sox, the Angels and Oakland.
As for the rest, my playoff field consists of Boston, Kansas City and Houston as the division winners, with Cleveland playing Texas in the Wild Card Game. I've got the Indians beating the Rangers, then dropping a great Division Series against the Red Sox. I see the Astros beating the Royals in the other Division Series, with Boston representing the American League in the World Series. The Red Sox simply have more pieces than everyone else, which I think gives them a slight edge in a very evenly-matched American League.
Stay tuned tomorrow for the start of the National League. Can anyone challenge the World Champion Cubs? Sure. Who? Wait and find out.
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