Last season, we learned that there are three really good teams in the NL Central. There are also two really bad teams in the NL Central. The Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates all made the playoffs in 2015, and this season doesn't really project to be that much different.
This division has also exposed the main flaw of the current playoff system. The NL Wild Card Game has been Central vs. Central twice in the last three years. Both times the Central division champion was the No. 1 seed and played the wild card winner in the Division Series. Under the previous format, where teams from the same division couldn't meet in the Division Series, the Cubs and Cardinals wouldn't have been able to play the Cardinals. They were both good enough to be in the NLCS. But it was impossible for that to happen since they played in the Division Series. I know that's not going to be the case every year, but the three NL Central teams had the three best records in baseball last season, yet it was only possible for one of them to be in the NLCS.
For the first time in a while, the Cubs have the burden of expectations on them. But we all saw how well that worked out for the 2015 Nationals. The Cardinals are going to win somewhere between 84 and 90 games because they always do. The Pirates, meanwhile, really need to win the division so that they can avoid the Wild Card Game and the other team's stud starter again.
1. Chicago Cubs: It's been 108 years since the Cubs last won the World Series. Cubs fans are really thinking this might be the year that drought ends, and they've got every reason to believe. On paper, this is the best team in baseball. By a wide margin. But we've seen the Cubs crumble under the weight of expectations before. Fortunately, they have two good teams in their division to push them. They're also fortunate to have three ridiculous starting pitchers. That's right. I said three. After being smacked around by the Mets and their four bonkers starters in the NLCS, they realized they needed more than just Arrieta and Lester. Enter John Lackey. Now they're three strong at the front of the rotation. Lackey wasn't the only former Cardinal to join the Cubs' side of the rivalry during the offseason. They pulled off a major coup by snagging Jason Heyward in free agency. He was supposed to replace Dexter Fowler in center field, but, surprise, surprise, Fowler re-upped with the Cubs, turning Jorge Soler into a top-notch pinch hitter. Fresh off a World Championship, Ben Zobrist has also been reunited with mad genius Joe Maddon, further improving Chicago's lineup. And it was the acquisition of Zobrist that made Starlin Castro expendable. Oh, and did I mention they have two of the absolute best players in the game in Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant? Like I said, people have high expectations of the Cubs for good reason. This team might even be better than the 2003 squad that Steve Bartman made famous.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-CF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Kris Bryant-3B, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Jason Heyward-RF, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Miguel Montero-C, Addison Russell-SS
Projected Rotation: Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks
Closer: Hector Rondon
Projected Record: 98-64
2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh has been one of the most consistently good teams in the game for the last three seasons. And all they have to show for it is one Division Series appearance and two home Wild Card Game losses (to be fair, those were against Madison Bumgarner and Jake Arrieta). This year they could easily finish with the second-best record in the Majors but not win the division again. It's just the unfortunate situation they're in of sharing a division with the Cubs. Pittsburgh's very good. They just aren't as good as Chicago. The Neil Walker trade was very smart. They needed a starter to replace the retired A.J. Burnett, and the Mets needed to do something with Jon Niese, so this was a perfect fit for both teams. Walker's departure moves Josh Harrison to second and Jung Ho Kang to third, which moves Jordy Mercer back into the starting lineup. They've also got David Freese, so if Mercer doesn't hit (which was his problem before), Kang can move back to short. The Pirates' outfield is the team's biggest strength, though. Andrew McCutchen is on the short list of the best players in baseball, and I absolutely love both Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte. Gerrit Cole is also among the best in the game. He continues to prove why the Pirates drafted him No. 1 overall in 2011. Mark Melancon has 84 saves in two seasons since become Pittsburgh's closer. He anchors a really solid bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Starling Marte-LF, Josh Harrison-2B, Andrew McCutchen-CF, Gregory Polanco-RF, Michael Morse-1B, Jung Ho Kang-3B, Francisco Cervelli-C, Jordy Mercer-SS
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Gerritt Cole, Jon Niese, Jeff Locke, Juan Nicasio
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 90-72
3. St. Louis Cardinals: No matter what you think of the Cardinals going into the season, they always end up in the playoffs. Even though you've only heard of about half the guys on the team, St. Louis is remarkably consistent. Annoyingly so, as a matter of fact. Year after year, no matter who's injured and what random guy shows up, they win somewhere between 88-94 games before making a run in the postseason. This year they're the third-best team in the NL Central. So don't be surprised when they notch 97 wins and win the division. The pitching is one of the reasons why the Cardinals are so good. Adam Wainwright is back after missing most of last season due to that freak injury while he was batting. And they've brought in Mike Leake to fill that rotation spot vacated by John Lackey. Offensively, they're paced by the same three core guys, who are the only position players on the team you've ever heard of. Jhonny Peralta is once again injured. The Cardinals are wasting a lot of money on him. That's why they got Ruben Tejada from the Mets, although it looks like former Padres starter Jedd Gyorko is going to start the season as their everyday shortstop. They got Gyorko for Jon Jay, which means the outfield spots next to Matt Holliday are being entrusted to Randal Grichuk and Stephen Pisciotty. On paper, they aren't as good as either the Cubs are Pirates. But there's a reason the Cardinals are in the conversation every year. They're the Patriots of baseball. You can't ever count them out. You know they'll still be around come late September.
Projected Lineup: Matt Carpenter-3B, Randal Grichuk-CF, Matt Holliday-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Stephen Pisciotty-RF, Brandon Moss-1B, Jedd Gyorko-SS, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Mike Leake, Jaime Garcia, Carlos Martinez
Closer: Trevor Rosenthal
Projected Record: 88-74
4. Cincinnati Reds: The Reds haven't pulled a complete Atlanta Braves, but they've come pretty close. Cincinnati didn't gut the entire team, but it's pretty clear they aren't planning on contending, either. The one guy they did get rid of was Todd Frazier, who was probably their best player last season. They traded Aroldis Chapman to the Dodgers, only to see that fall through and send him to the Yankees instead. They tried to unload Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, too, but nobody wanted them. But with Bruce and Phillips still around to keep Joey Votto and Billy Hamilton company, the Reds are still going to score a whole bunch of runs in the Great American Small Park. Problem is, they'll also give up a lot. They no longer have a lefty-throwing Cuban fireballer at the back end of the bullpen, and the rotation's not much better. Cincinnati's best starter last season, Johnny Cueto, won a ring in Kansas City and is now applying his trade in San Francisco. Brandon Finnegan was the pitcher they got from the Royals for Cueto, and he's penciled in at No. 2 in the rotation between Raisel Iglesias. Who? Exactly. That's why the Reds are going to struggle in 2016. Especially in the NL Central, Cincinnati simply doesn't have the pitching to compete.
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Brandon Phillips-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Jay Bruce-RF, Zack Cozart-SS, Adam Duvall-LF, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Devin Mesoraco-C
Projected Rotation: Raisel Iglesias, Brandon Finnegan, Alfredo Simon, Anthony DeSclafani, Homer Bailey (DL)
Closer: J.J. Hoover
Projected Record: 72-90
5. Milwaukee Brewers: Cincinnati's going to hit a little more than Milwaukee, which is why I give the Reds the slight edge in the battle for last place. But these two teams are remarkably close. The Brewers' top two players are still Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, two perennial All-Stars. This year they're surrounded by a bunch of castoffs from other teams. Jean Segura is gone, replaced by Jonathan Villar, who lost his job in Houston to Carlos Correa. Another former Astro, Chris Carter, takes over at first base for Adam Lind. Adam Hill, who they got from Arizona for Segura, steps in at third, with former Met Kirk Nieuwenhuis finally getting a chance to start full-time in center. They've made a lot of offseason changes. Just like the Chicago White Sox, all of these new faces will either gel immediately with great results, or it'll be a total disaster. It's hard to tell which way that'll go right now. Unlike the White Sox, the Brewers don't have a great starting rotation. Wily Peralta will start on Opening Day, and Matt Garza hasn't really been that good since he came to Milwaukee two years ago. I have no idea who any of those guys in the Brewers' bullpen are. Closer Francisco Rodriguez has been liberated from this disaster and will have the chance to close for a contender in Detroit.
Projected Lineup: Jonathan Villar-SS, Aaron Hill-3B, Ryan Braun-LF, Chris Carter-1B, Jonathan Lucroy-C, Domingo Santana-RF, Scooter Gennett-2B, Kirk Nieuwenhuis-CF
Projected Rotation: Wily Peralta, Jimmy Nelson, Matt Garza, Taylor Jungmann, Chase Anderson
Closer: Will Smith
Projected Record: 70-92
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
2016 Baseball Preview, Part 4
Unlike the American League, where there's a significant amount of parity and some close division races are expected, the National League is very much a tale of the haves and the have-nots. That was the case last year, and it'll probably be even more prevalent this season. But that doesn't mean we won't have any division races. In fact, I'm expecting a good one between the Mets and Nationals in the NL East.
Last season, everyone gave the National League pennant to the Nationals before Spring Training even started. Instead, they turned into the most disappointing good team in baseball. Not only did they not win the division, they missed the playoffs entirely. Despite having the unanimous MVP and a guy who threw two no-hitters!
Instead it was the Mets that won both the NL East and National League pennant in 2015. And now all the pressure is on them to repeat. We enter 2016 with the script flipped. The Mets are the overwhelming division favorite, with Washington as the potential spoiler. Miami should finish third, if only because they've got plenty of talent on their roster and they're actually going to try. Unlike the Braves and Phillies. The Mets and Nationals will play 38 games each against those two teams. Whichever one has a better record in those 38 is your likely division champion.
1. New York Mets: Expectations for the Mets are extremely high, and with good reason. They got to the World Series on the strength of that ridiculous starting pitching...and all four are back. That's reason enough to think the Mets can make another run. And, oh yeah, Zack Wheeler will be back from Tommy John surgery in July, giving them five! first-rate starters. Throw in an excellent closer in Jeurys Familia, and it'll be very hard for opposing offenses to score runs against the New York Mets this season. Of course, it was the trade deadline acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes when they really took off last season. I think the Mets were content to let Cespedes walk away in free agency, so it came as a little bit of a surprise (and a pleasant one at that) when they re-signed arguably their most important player. And, after playing for four different teams in two seasons, Cespedes will be a Met for the forseeable future. Keeping him around became a necessity when Daniel Murphy signed with the Nationals, but I actually like what the Mets did to replace Murphy. Neil Walker is better defensively and close enough to on par with Murphy offensively that the swap can be considered a push. It was also smart to trade Jon Niese, who had plenty of value to a number of other teams, for somebody they could use, and Walker definitely fits the bill. And Asdrubal Cabrera is an upgrade at short over the Ruben Tejada/Wilmer Flores tag team. Tejada and Wilmer both became cult heroes last season, but Cabrera is better than both of them, and he'll stabilize the shortstop position. The Mets may even be better than they were last season. But will it be enough to hold off the Nationals?
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson-RF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, David Wright-3B, Yoenis Cespedes-CF, Lucas Duda-1B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Michael Conforto-LF, Neil Walker-2B
Projected Rotation: Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob de Grom, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
Closer: Jeurys Familia
Projected Record: 93-69
2. Washington Nationals: The Nationals' 2015 season can only be classified as a disappointment. On a number of levels. They crumbled under the weight of expectations, despite having the best player in the National League and Max Scherzer proving that he was worth every penny they paid him. The problem was everyone else, including manager Matt Williams, who was let go and replaced by Dusty Baker, a bold move by a team with a definite "win now" mentality. Baker will need the Nationals' other players to play up to their potential, starting with everyone in the lineup not named Bryce Harper. They got Ben Revere to lead off and play center field in a trade with the Blue Jays, but it cost them closer Drew Storen. Now they're stuck with last season's trade deadline pickup, Jonathan Papelbon, who can only be classified as a cancer in the Nationals' clubhouse, as their closer. (When you start a fight in the dugout with your team's unquestioned best player, it's YOU that's the problem.) The rotation is a little thinner without Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, so Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez will really need to pitch like they did two seasons ago when Washington won the division. Snagging Daniel Murphy was a major coup, if only because it was a shot aimed directly at the Mets. The Nationals are a better team than they showed last season, when they still finished in second place. This year, they don't have the weight of expectations on them. Let's see if that's good for them.
Projected Lineup: Ben Revere-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, Bryce Harper-RF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Jayson Werth-LF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Danny Espinosa-SS, Wilson Ramos-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, Joe Ross
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Projected Record: 89-73
3. Miami Marlins: Imagine if they'd actually gotten a whole season out of both Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon last season. They still wouldn't have contended, but they could've made things a little more interesting in the NL East. The Marlins are now managed by Don Mattingly, who had a mutual divorce with the Dodgers after failing to get LA past the Division Series year after year. In Miami, he won't have as good of a team. But he also won't have the weight of the world on his shoulders, and he'll actually be able to manage without every little move being overly scrutinized. And he's definitely a better manager than Dan Jennings. Jose Fernandez is a stud, and he'll be joined in the rotation by former Oriole Wei-Yin Chen this season. Their bullpen was weakened by the loss of Steve Cishek, but new closer A.J. Ramos went 32-for-38 on saves last season. The most important guy on this team, though, obviously, is Giancarlo Stanton. He needs to stay healthy for Miami to make any noise in 2016. The rest of this young, talented lineup is very good, but Stanton is what makes the Marlins go. Regardless, third place is a virtual lock for this team. The Mets and Nationals are better than they are, while the Braves and Phillies don't care at all. And with just a couple breaks and Mattingly making the right moves, the Marlins might actually be in contention for a wild card.
Projected Lineup: Dee Gordon-2B, Martin Prado-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Justin Bour-1B, Marcell Ozuna-CF, Adeiny Hechavarria-SS, J.T. Realmuto-C
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez, Wei-Yin Chen, Tom Koehler, Adam Conley, Jarred Cosart
Closer: A.J. Ramos
Projected Record: 79-83
4. Atlanta Braves: Congratulations to Justin Upton and Shelby Miller for getting out of Atlanta while they still could. I just feel bad for Freddie Freeman. He's the one guy they've made it clear is untouchable, so he'll be subjected to this entire rebuilding process. Freeman and Nick Markakis are the only guys I've ever heard of on a team that's trying its best to be an East Coast version of the Oakland A's. Another one bit the dust the other day when they released Nick Swisher, who might be done after not hitting in both Cleveland and Atlanta last year. I think I understand what they're trying to do. But I don't like it at all. You don't have to intentionally suck now in order to be good when your new stadium opens! At least it lowers everyone's expectations. The Braves aren't going to be good. Everyone knows that. They aren't making any effort to be good. That doesn't mean they'll finish in last place, though. Because fortunately for them, the Phillies, who also play in the NL East, are equally bad. They'll battle it out for last place. Atlanta gets the slight edge for fourth because Julio Teheran is better than any starting pitcher the Phillies have.
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Erick Aybar-SS, Nick Markakis-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Hector Olivera-LF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Jace Peterson-2B, Adonis Garcia-3B
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Bud Norris, Matt Wisler, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Foltynewicz
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Projected Record: 65-97
5. Philadelphia Phillies: It wasn't that long ago that the Phillies were the poster children for all National League franchises. Those glory days are long gone, with Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz the only remnants of their 2008 World Series championship team. Philadelphia's trying to mix in some good young talent, but is still weighed down by Howard's massive contract, and he's nowhere near the player he once was. Third baseman Maikel Franco is a star in the making, and I really Odubel Herrera, too. But they've got Peter Bourjos in right field. I've made my thoughts about Peter Bourjos known in the past, and that opinion hasn't changed. But if any team can get away with having him as a starting outfielder, it's the Phillies. They're not going anywhere and they know it. That's why they traded Cole Hamels, the longtime Face of the Franchise, at the deadline last season. The new "ace" of the rotation is Jeremy Hellickson, the former AL Rookie of the Year with the Rays. Behind Hellickson are former Pirate Charlie Morton and three guys who are all 25 or younger. That's their strategy for this season. Bring the young guys up to the Major League level, take your licks, and prepare to be good in the future. It worked for the Astros. Maybe in five years, we'll be talking about the Phillies in the same way. This season, though, will be a long one. They'll be pushing the 100-loss plateau.
Projected Lineup: Odubel Herrera-CF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Maikel Franco-3B, Ryan Howard-1B, Cody Asche-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C, Cesar Hernandez-2B, Peter Bourjos-RF
Projected Rotation: Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez
Closer: Edward Mujica
Projected Record: 59-103
Last season, everyone gave the National League pennant to the Nationals before Spring Training even started. Instead, they turned into the most disappointing good team in baseball. Not only did they not win the division, they missed the playoffs entirely. Despite having the unanimous MVP and a guy who threw two no-hitters!
Instead it was the Mets that won both the NL East and National League pennant in 2015. And now all the pressure is on them to repeat. We enter 2016 with the script flipped. The Mets are the overwhelming division favorite, with Washington as the potential spoiler. Miami should finish third, if only because they've got plenty of talent on their roster and they're actually going to try. Unlike the Braves and Phillies. The Mets and Nationals will play 38 games each against those two teams. Whichever one has a better record in those 38 is your likely division champion.
1. New York Mets: Expectations for the Mets are extremely high, and with good reason. They got to the World Series on the strength of that ridiculous starting pitching...and all four are back. That's reason enough to think the Mets can make another run. And, oh yeah, Zack Wheeler will be back from Tommy John surgery in July, giving them five! first-rate starters. Throw in an excellent closer in Jeurys Familia, and it'll be very hard for opposing offenses to score runs against the New York Mets this season. Of course, it was the trade deadline acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes when they really took off last season. I think the Mets were content to let Cespedes walk away in free agency, so it came as a little bit of a surprise (and a pleasant one at that) when they re-signed arguably their most important player. And, after playing for four different teams in two seasons, Cespedes will be a Met for the forseeable future. Keeping him around became a necessity when Daniel Murphy signed with the Nationals, but I actually like what the Mets did to replace Murphy. Neil Walker is better defensively and close enough to on par with Murphy offensively that the swap can be considered a push. It was also smart to trade Jon Niese, who had plenty of value to a number of other teams, for somebody they could use, and Walker definitely fits the bill. And Asdrubal Cabrera is an upgrade at short over the Ruben Tejada/Wilmer Flores tag team. Tejada and Wilmer both became cult heroes last season, but Cabrera is better than both of them, and he'll stabilize the shortstop position. The Mets may even be better than they were last season. But will it be enough to hold off the Nationals?
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson-RF, Asdrubal Cabrera-SS, David Wright-3B, Yoenis Cespedes-CF, Lucas Duda-1B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Michael Conforto-LF, Neil Walker-2B
Projected Rotation: Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob de Grom, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
Closer: Jeurys Familia
Projected Record: 93-69
2. Washington Nationals: The Nationals' 2015 season can only be classified as a disappointment. On a number of levels. They crumbled under the weight of expectations, despite having the best player in the National League and Max Scherzer proving that he was worth every penny they paid him. The problem was everyone else, including manager Matt Williams, who was let go and replaced by Dusty Baker, a bold move by a team with a definite "win now" mentality. Baker will need the Nationals' other players to play up to their potential, starting with everyone in the lineup not named Bryce Harper. They got Ben Revere to lead off and play center field in a trade with the Blue Jays, but it cost them closer Drew Storen. Now they're stuck with last season's trade deadline pickup, Jonathan Papelbon, who can only be classified as a cancer in the Nationals' clubhouse, as their closer. (When you start a fight in the dugout with your team's unquestioned best player, it's YOU that's the problem.) The rotation is a little thinner without Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, so Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez will really need to pitch like they did two seasons ago when Washington won the division. Snagging Daniel Murphy was a major coup, if only because it was a shot aimed directly at the Mets. The Nationals are a better team than they showed last season, when they still finished in second place. This year, they don't have the weight of expectations on them. Let's see if that's good for them.
Projected Lineup: Ben Revere-CF, Daniel Murphy-2B, Bryce Harper-RF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Jayson Werth-LF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Danny Espinosa-SS, Wilson Ramos-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, Joe Ross
Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Projected Record: 89-73
3. Miami Marlins: Imagine if they'd actually gotten a whole season out of both Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon last season. They still wouldn't have contended, but they could've made things a little more interesting in the NL East. The Marlins are now managed by Don Mattingly, who had a mutual divorce with the Dodgers after failing to get LA past the Division Series year after year. In Miami, he won't have as good of a team. But he also won't have the weight of the world on his shoulders, and he'll actually be able to manage without every little move being overly scrutinized. And he's definitely a better manager than Dan Jennings. Jose Fernandez is a stud, and he'll be joined in the rotation by former Oriole Wei-Yin Chen this season. Their bullpen was weakened by the loss of Steve Cishek, but new closer A.J. Ramos went 32-for-38 on saves last season. The most important guy on this team, though, obviously, is Giancarlo Stanton. He needs to stay healthy for Miami to make any noise in 2016. The rest of this young, talented lineup is very good, but Stanton is what makes the Marlins go. Regardless, third place is a virtual lock for this team. The Mets and Nationals are better than they are, while the Braves and Phillies don't care at all. And with just a couple breaks and Mattingly making the right moves, the Marlins might actually be in contention for a wild card.
Projected Lineup: Dee Gordon-2B, Martin Prado-3B, Giancarlo Stanton-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Justin Bour-1B, Marcell Ozuna-CF, Adeiny Hechavarria-SS, J.T. Realmuto-C
Projected Rotation: Jose Fernandez, Wei-Yin Chen, Tom Koehler, Adam Conley, Jarred Cosart
Closer: A.J. Ramos
Projected Record: 79-83
4. Atlanta Braves: Congratulations to Justin Upton and Shelby Miller for getting out of Atlanta while they still could. I just feel bad for Freddie Freeman. He's the one guy they've made it clear is untouchable, so he'll be subjected to this entire rebuilding process. Freeman and Nick Markakis are the only guys I've ever heard of on a team that's trying its best to be an East Coast version of the Oakland A's. Another one bit the dust the other day when they released Nick Swisher, who might be done after not hitting in both Cleveland and Atlanta last year. I think I understand what they're trying to do. But I don't like it at all. You don't have to intentionally suck now in order to be good when your new stadium opens! At least it lowers everyone's expectations. The Braves aren't going to be good. Everyone knows that. They aren't making any effort to be good. That doesn't mean they'll finish in last place, though. Because fortunately for them, the Phillies, who also play in the NL East, are equally bad. They'll battle it out for last place. Atlanta gets the slight edge for fourth because Julio Teheran is better than any starting pitcher the Phillies have.
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF, Erick Aybar-SS, Nick Markakis-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Hector Olivera-LF, A.J. Pierzynski-C, Jace Peterson-2B, Adonis Garcia-3B
Projected Rotation: Julio Teheran, Bud Norris, Matt Wisler, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Foltynewicz
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Projected Record: 65-97
5. Philadelphia Phillies: It wasn't that long ago that the Phillies were the poster children for all National League franchises. Those glory days are long gone, with Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz the only remnants of their 2008 World Series championship team. Philadelphia's trying to mix in some good young talent, but is still weighed down by Howard's massive contract, and he's nowhere near the player he once was. Third baseman Maikel Franco is a star in the making, and I really Odubel Herrera, too. But they've got Peter Bourjos in right field. I've made my thoughts about Peter Bourjos known in the past, and that opinion hasn't changed. But if any team can get away with having him as a starting outfielder, it's the Phillies. They're not going anywhere and they know it. That's why they traded Cole Hamels, the longtime Face of the Franchise, at the deadline last season. The new "ace" of the rotation is Jeremy Hellickson, the former AL Rookie of the Year with the Rays. Behind Hellickson are former Pirate Charlie Morton and three guys who are all 25 or younger. That's their strategy for this season. Bring the young guys up to the Major League level, take your licks, and prepare to be good in the future. It worked for the Astros. Maybe in five years, we'll be talking about the Phillies in the same way. This season, though, will be a long one. They'll be pushing the 100-loss plateau.
Projected Lineup: Odubel Herrera-CF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Maikel Franco-3B, Ryan Howard-1B, Cody Asche-LF, Carlos Ruiz-C, Cesar Hernandez-2B, Peter Bourjos-RF
Projected Rotation: Jeremy Hellickson, Charlie Morton, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez
Closer: Edward Mujica
Projected Record: 59-103
Sunday, March 27, 2016
2016 Baseball Preview, Part 3
Last season, I was dead wrong about the AL West. I was a big believer in the Seattle Mariners, thinking they had all the pieces to finally contend for a division title. Well, we all know how that turned out. The Mariners were the same dysfunctional mess they always are. And the Angels, the division champions in 2014, weren't able to back it up and the best player in baseball was left watching the postseason from the sidelines for the third time in his four-year career.
I also thought there was no way the Rangers would possibly be good, then they come out of nowhere, win the division, and their rookie manager earns Manager of the Year honors. Meanwhile, the Astros arrived about a year or two early. Everyone knew they were going to be good in 2016-17. In 2015? Not so much. Yet Houston was the story of baseball for five months before fading in September. But the Astros still won the Wild Card Game and gave the Royals all they could handle in the Division Series. There's no reason not to believe they'll be around for the long haul.
About the only thing I got right was not thinking Oakland would be any good. And they weren't. And they probably won't be again. But every time I think that about the Oakland A's, they end up making the playoffs. The current team doesn't have the talent that they've traded away since making that 2014 Wild Card Game appearance, but I've decided I'm not writing Oakland off completely. Just in case something crazy happens.
This is Houston's division to lose, though. The Astros are significantly better than the other four teams. Texas will regress back to the mean, Seattle will be improved, but isn't quite there yet, and I don't know what's going on with the Angels. That's a team that should be good, but rarely is.
1. Houston Astros: All that losing they did for so long paid off in a big way last season. Now they have the burden of expectations. Let's see how they respond. I think they'll do fine. In fact, I think they might even be a little better this season. Dallas Keuchel is the reigning Cy Young winner, Collin McHugh is a solid No. 2, and their rotation got even stronger with Doug Fister coming over from Washington. And that leads into that great bullpen anchored by Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Tony Sipp. Carlos Correa is the Next Big Thing is the sport. He burst onto the scene in 2015, capturing Rookie of the Year honors at the ripe old age of 20. Just imagine how good this guy is going to be. With Correa, Jose Altuve and Carlos Gomez up the middle, Houston is set. So set, in fact, that George Springer is going to play right with Colby Rasmus in left. That gives the Astros three center fielders in their regular lineup. Chris Carter is no longer with the team, so the leading candidate to take over at first base is lefty Jon Singleton. DH Evan Gattis is currently on the shelf, too, but Houston has the pieces to overcome an injury or two. Was last season a fluke? That's the challenge they'll be up against. I don't think it was, though. All the experts agreed that the Astros had so much young talent that they were going to be a very, very good baseball team at some point in the not-too-distant future. I think that time arrived in 2015. Because I don't see any reason for this Astros train to stop rolling in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Colby Rasmus-LF, Carlos Correa-SS, Carlos Gomez-CF, George Springer-RF, Evan Gattis-DH, Jon Singleton-1B, Luis Valbuena-3B, Jason Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Doug Fister, Lance McCullers (DL), Mike Fiers
Closer: Luke Gregerson
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Seattle Mariners: While I'm not as high on the Mariners as I was last season, I still think Seattle has a decent chance of contending in the AL West. Now that the Blue Jays have ended their postseason drought, the Mariners' streak is currently the longest in baseball. But I'll give them credit for finally realizing that they need more than Felix Hernandez if they hope to end that streak. King Felix has carried this team for so long that he deserves the opportunity to pitch for a contender, and the Mariners have finally developed something that resembles a Major League lineup behind him. It all starts with Robinson Cano, of course, but Kyle Seager is a star, too, and Nelson Cruz put up fantastic numbers last season at DH. And I like the spare parts they've added to fill out the roster. Leonys Martin from Texas, Nori Aoki from the Giants, longtime Blue Jay Adam Lind from the Brewers, catcher Chris Iannetta from the Angels. It's very similar to what the White Sox did in building around a few solid core pieces and getting rid of everybody else. If it works, the Mariners may actually score more than three runs a game this season. Which I'm sure Felix would appreciate. So would the rest of the rotation, including Hisashi Iwakuma, who burned the Dodgers to return to Seattle, Taijuan Walker, who won 11 games as a rookie, and Wade Miley, who came over in a trade with the Red Sox. They even addressed their miserable bullpen, snagging Steve Cishek to close and Joaquin Benoit to set up. We've seen this before with the Mariners, where people get their hopes up only to be shot down by an underachieving bunch. But with the best player in franchise history taking his place in Cooperstown this summer, maybe some of the magic of 1995 will rub off on this current bunch and the Mariners will be playing in October for the first time since 2001.
Projected Lineup: Leonys Martin-CF, Nori Aoki-LF, Robinson Cano-2B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Kyle Seager-3B, Adam Lind-1B, Seth Smith-RF, Chris Iannetta-C, Ketel Marte-SS
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Wade Miley, Taijuan Walker, Nathan Karns
Closer: Steve Cishek
Projected Record: 83-79
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California: Does anyone know why the Angels insist on doing everything the hard way? They've got the best player in baseball, a future Hall of Famer, a reliable ace, and a ton of money to spend. Yet they make the most curious decisions on how to spend it. I like the addition of Andrelton Simmons a lot, especially since he wasn't going anywhere in Atlanta, but they also became the third different team to trade for Yunel Escobar during the 2015 calendar year. Am I missing something? When did Yunel Escobar become this valuable commodity every team decided they MUST have? (Or was he traded three times for other reasons?) And I'm glad Daniel Nava finally got liberated from Boston, but he's really your starting left fielder? With Johnny Giavotella, Kole Calhoun and C.J. Cron already in the projected lineup? I don't get it. Looks like it'll all be up to Trout and Albert again. The top of the rotation looks good with Jered Weaver, Garrett Richards and C.J. Wilson, but Weaver never gets the respect he deserves and Wilson is once again banged up. Matt Shoemaker, meanwhile, went from Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2014 to a 7-10 afterthought in 2015. Sophomore slump, or has everybody else figured him out? The bullpen's got Huston Street and a bunch of other guys not relevant enough to mention. It's just so disappointing that the Angels are what they are. Because they could be so much more. And baseball fans really want to see Mike Trout under October's bright lights. Which doesn't look like it's going to happen with the rest of the team they're going to put on the field this season.
Projected Lineup: Andrelton Simmons-SS, Johnny Giavotella-2B, Mike Trout-CF, Albert Pujols-DH, Kole Calhoun-RF, Yunel Escobar-3B, Daniel Nava-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Carlos Perez-C
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver, Garrett Richards, C.J. Wilson, Andrew Heaney, Matt Shoemaker
Closer: Huston Street
Projected Record: 80-82
4. Texas Rangers: The other surprise playoff team out of the AL West in 2015 was the other one that plays in Texas. Forgive me if I think that one was the fluke. Personally, I think the Rangers significantly overachieved last season, and I'd be surprised to see them do it again. They got a tremendous bounce-back year from Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre's an absolute beast, but I'm still shocked as to how they even made the playoffs. Let alone how they were leading Game 5 against the Blue Jays until the Bat Flip Heard Round Canada. A lot of the credit for that has to go to Cole Hamels, who was mercifully let out of baseball purgatory in Philadelphia and thrust into a pennant race on a team that needed an ace. Much to the Rangers' surprise, Hamels decided to stick around, so they'll have a dynamic 1-2 punch when Yu Darvish comes back from Tommy John surgery in May. And they've got plenty of time to make up ground with both of them in the rotation should they have a bad April. Another guy on the DL is Josh Hamilton. What else is new? The Rangers clearly don't have any clue when he'll be back, seeing as they told Ian Desmond (who I didn't even realize wasn't on the Nationals anymore) that he'll be their left fielder all season. If Desmond's playing left and Prince is ensconced at DH, where does that put Hamilton? You can't put him in right. That's where Shin-Soo Choo plays. And Delino DeShields, Jr., is too good a center fielder to mess with that. Which makes Hamilton a very expensive pinch hitter. Let's see how well that goes over.
Projected Lineup: Delino DeShields Jr.-CF, Shin-Soo Choo-RF, Adrian Beltre-3B, Prince Fielder-DH, Elvis Andrus-SS, Ian Desmond-LF, Roughned Odor-2B, Mitch Moreland-1B, Robinson Chirinos-C
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish (DL), Martin Perez, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland
Closer: Shawn Tolleson
Projected Record: 77-85
5. Oakland Athletics: What's there to say about the A's? I'm trying to be as positive as possible about teams' chances heading into the season, but I've seriously heard of about three guys on Oakland's roster. Despite pitching for an incredibly bad team, Sonny Gray finished third in Cy Young voting last year. It'll be up to him again because, honestly, I don't know how this team is going to score any runs. When your big off-season acquisition is Yonder Alonso, that pretty much sums up the state of your team. I can't even say with 100 percent certainty where guys are going to line up defensively because not only is that different every game, it seems to change in the middle of games quite frequently. I get it. Oakland's a small-market team and they have to do things differently than everybody else, including that black-and-orange-wearing team across the Bay that's due for another World Series title this season. But they've made it work in the past. As recently as two years ago, in fact. I just don't see how it's going to work with this current group. Unlike the National League, which is very top-heavy, there's a lot of parity in the AL. Most of the teams are bunched closely together without much to separate them. The exception is Oakland. I think everyone would be surprised if the A's were playing in October. Knowing that mad genius Billy Beane, though, that's what he wants us all to think. That means he's got us right where he wants us.
Projected Lineup: Billy Burns-CF, Marcus Semien-SS, Josh Reddick-RF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Billy Butler-DH, Khris Davis-LF, Stephen Vogt-C, Danny Valencia-3B, Jed Lowrie-2B
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, Chris Bassitt, Rich Hill
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 69-93
So. now that the AL is complete, to summarize the playoff picks:
East: Yankees
Central: Tigers
West: Astros
Wild Card 1: Royals
Wild Card 2: Blue Jays
AL Champion: Astros
I also thought there was no way the Rangers would possibly be good, then they come out of nowhere, win the division, and their rookie manager earns Manager of the Year honors. Meanwhile, the Astros arrived about a year or two early. Everyone knew they were going to be good in 2016-17. In 2015? Not so much. Yet Houston was the story of baseball for five months before fading in September. But the Astros still won the Wild Card Game and gave the Royals all they could handle in the Division Series. There's no reason not to believe they'll be around for the long haul.
About the only thing I got right was not thinking Oakland would be any good. And they weren't. And they probably won't be again. But every time I think that about the Oakland A's, they end up making the playoffs. The current team doesn't have the talent that they've traded away since making that 2014 Wild Card Game appearance, but I've decided I'm not writing Oakland off completely. Just in case something crazy happens.
This is Houston's division to lose, though. The Astros are significantly better than the other four teams. Texas will regress back to the mean, Seattle will be improved, but isn't quite there yet, and I don't know what's going on with the Angels. That's a team that should be good, but rarely is.
1. Houston Astros: All that losing they did for so long paid off in a big way last season. Now they have the burden of expectations. Let's see how they respond. I think they'll do fine. In fact, I think they might even be a little better this season. Dallas Keuchel is the reigning Cy Young winner, Collin McHugh is a solid No. 2, and their rotation got even stronger with Doug Fister coming over from Washington. And that leads into that great bullpen anchored by Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Tony Sipp. Carlos Correa is the Next Big Thing is the sport. He burst onto the scene in 2015, capturing Rookie of the Year honors at the ripe old age of 20. Just imagine how good this guy is going to be. With Correa, Jose Altuve and Carlos Gomez up the middle, Houston is set. So set, in fact, that George Springer is going to play right with Colby Rasmus in left. That gives the Astros three center fielders in their regular lineup. Chris Carter is no longer with the team, so the leading candidate to take over at first base is lefty Jon Singleton. DH Evan Gattis is currently on the shelf, too, but Houston has the pieces to overcome an injury or two. Was last season a fluke? That's the challenge they'll be up against. I don't think it was, though. All the experts agreed that the Astros had so much young talent that they were going to be a very, very good baseball team at some point in the not-too-distant future. I think that time arrived in 2015. Because I don't see any reason for this Astros train to stop rolling in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Jose Altuve-2B, Colby Rasmus-LF, Carlos Correa-SS, Carlos Gomez-CF, George Springer-RF, Evan Gattis-DH, Jon Singleton-1B, Luis Valbuena-3B, Jason Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Doug Fister, Lance McCullers (DL), Mike Fiers
Closer: Luke Gregerson
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Seattle Mariners: While I'm not as high on the Mariners as I was last season, I still think Seattle has a decent chance of contending in the AL West. Now that the Blue Jays have ended their postseason drought, the Mariners' streak is currently the longest in baseball. But I'll give them credit for finally realizing that they need more than Felix Hernandez if they hope to end that streak. King Felix has carried this team for so long that he deserves the opportunity to pitch for a contender, and the Mariners have finally developed something that resembles a Major League lineup behind him. It all starts with Robinson Cano, of course, but Kyle Seager is a star, too, and Nelson Cruz put up fantastic numbers last season at DH. And I like the spare parts they've added to fill out the roster. Leonys Martin from Texas, Nori Aoki from the Giants, longtime Blue Jay Adam Lind from the Brewers, catcher Chris Iannetta from the Angels. It's very similar to what the White Sox did in building around a few solid core pieces and getting rid of everybody else. If it works, the Mariners may actually score more than three runs a game this season. Which I'm sure Felix would appreciate. So would the rest of the rotation, including Hisashi Iwakuma, who burned the Dodgers to return to Seattle, Taijuan Walker, who won 11 games as a rookie, and Wade Miley, who came over in a trade with the Red Sox. They even addressed their miserable bullpen, snagging Steve Cishek to close and Joaquin Benoit to set up. We've seen this before with the Mariners, where people get their hopes up only to be shot down by an underachieving bunch. But with the best player in franchise history taking his place in Cooperstown this summer, maybe some of the magic of 1995 will rub off on this current bunch and the Mariners will be playing in October for the first time since 2001.
Projected Lineup: Leonys Martin-CF, Nori Aoki-LF, Robinson Cano-2B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Kyle Seager-3B, Adam Lind-1B, Seth Smith-RF, Chris Iannetta-C, Ketel Marte-SS
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Wade Miley, Taijuan Walker, Nathan Karns
Closer: Steve Cishek
Projected Record: 83-79
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California: Does anyone know why the Angels insist on doing everything the hard way? They've got the best player in baseball, a future Hall of Famer, a reliable ace, and a ton of money to spend. Yet they make the most curious decisions on how to spend it. I like the addition of Andrelton Simmons a lot, especially since he wasn't going anywhere in Atlanta, but they also became the third different team to trade for Yunel Escobar during the 2015 calendar year. Am I missing something? When did Yunel Escobar become this valuable commodity every team decided they MUST have? (Or was he traded three times for other reasons?) And I'm glad Daniel Nava finally got liberated from Boston, but he's really your starting left fielder? With Johnny Giavotella, Kole Calhoun and C.J. Cron already in the projected lineup? I don't get it. Looks like it'll all be up to Trout and Albert again. The top of the rotation looks good with Jered Weaver, Garrett Richards and C.J. Wilson, but Weaver never gets the respect he deserves and Wilson is once again banged up. Matt Shoemaker, meanwhile, went from Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2014 to a 7-10 afterthought in 2015. Sophomore slump, or has everybody else figured him out? The bullpen's got Huston Street and a bunch of other guys not relevant enough to mention. It's just so disappointing that the Angels are what they are. Because they could be so much more. And baseball fans really want to see Mike Trout under October's bright lights. Which doesn't look like it's going to happen with the rest of the team they're going to put on the field this season.
Projected Lineup: Andrelton Simmons-SS, Johnny Giavotella-2B, Mike Trout-CF, Albert Pujols-DH, Kole Calhoun-RF, Yunel Escobar-3B, Daniel Nava-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Carlos Perez-C
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver, Garrett Richards, C.J. Wilson, Andrew Heaney, Matt Shoemaker
Closer: Huston Street
Projected Record: 80-82
4. Texas Rangers: The other surprise playoff team out of the AL West in 2015 was the other one that plays in Texas. Forgive me if I think that one was the fluke. Personally, I think the Rangers significantly overachieved last season, and I'd be surprised to see them do it again. They got a tremendous bounce-back year from Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre's an absolute beast, but I'm still shocked as to how they even made the playoffs. Let alone how they were leading Game 5 against the Blue Jays until the Bat Flip Heard Round Canada. A lot of the credit for that has to go to Cole Hamels, who was mercifully let out of baseball purgatory in Philadelphia and thrust into a pennant race on a team that needed an ace. Much to the Rangers' surprise, Hamels decided to stick around, so they'll have a dynamic 1-2 punch when Yu Darvish comes back from Tommy John surgery in May. And they've got plenty of time to make up ground with both of them in the rotation should they have a bad April. Another guy on the DL is Josh Hamilton. What else is new? The Rangers clearly don't have any clue when he'll be back, seeing as they told Ian Desmond (who I didn't even realize wasn't on the Nationals anymore) that he'll be their left fielder all season. If Desmond's playing left and Prince is ensconced at DH, where does that put Hamilton? You can't put him in right. That's where Shin-Soo Choo plays. And Delino DeShields, Jr., is too good a center fielder to mess with that. Which makes Hamilton a very expensive pinch hitter. Let's see how well that goes over.
Projected Lineup: Delino DeShields Jr.-CF, Shin-Soo Choo-RF, Adrian Beltre-3B, Prince Fielder-DH, Elvis Andrus-SS, Ian Desmond-LF, Roughned Odor-2B, Mitch Moreland-1B, Robinson Chirinos-C
Projected Rotation: Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish (DL), Martin Perez, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland
Closer: Shawn Tolleson
Projected Record: 77-85
5. Oakland Athletics: What's there to say about the A's? I'm trying to be as positive as possible about teams' chances heading into the season, but I've seriously heard of about three guys on Oakland's roster. Despite pitching for an incredibly bad team, Sonny Gray finished third in Cy Young voting last year. It'll be up to him again because, honestly, I don't know how this team is going to score any runs. When your big off-season acquisition is Yonder Alonso, that pretty much sums up the state of your team. I can't even say with 100 percent certainty where guys are going to line up defensively because not only is that different every game, it seems to change in the middle of games quite frequently. I get it. Oakland's a small-market team and they have to do things differently than everybody else, including that black-and-orange-wearing team across the Bay that's due for another World Series title this season. But they've made it work in the past. As recently as two years ago, in fact. I just don't see how it's going to work with this current group. Unlike the National League, which is very top-heavy, there's a lot of parity in the AL. Most of the teams are bunched closely together without much to separate them. The exception is Oakland. I think everyone would be surprised if the A's were playing in October. Knowing that mad genius Billy Beane, though, that's what he wants us all to think. That means he's got us right where he wants us.
Projected Lineup: Billy Burns-CF, Marcus Semien-SS, Josh Reddick-RF, Yonder Alonso-1B, Billy Butler-DH, Khris Davis-LF, Stephen Vogt-C, Danny Valencia-3B, Jed Lowrie-2B
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, Chris Bassitt, Rich Hill
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 69-93
So. now that the AL is complete, to summarize the playoff picks:
East: Yankees
Central: Tigers
West: Astros
Wild Card 1: Royals
Wild Card 2: Blue Jays
AL Champion: Astros
Friday, March 25, 2016
2016 Baseball Preview, Part 2
Suddenly, the AL Central has gone from one of the worst divisions in baseball to one of the best. The Royals have been to back-to-back World Series and are the defending champions. They unseated the Tigers as division champions, but no one would be surprised to see Detroit reclaim its place at the top. That is, if the Indians don't. And let's not forget Minnesota, which came out of nowhere to finish second last season. I don't think anyone would be surprised to see the White Sox, who have the best pitcher in the division, end up winning the AL Central, either.
Nobody saw Kansas City coming in 2014. Even after their run to Game 7 of the World Series, the Royals still had their doubters. Most preseason projections didn't even have them finishing .500. All they did was get back to the World Series, and win it this time. Now I think everyone is finally believers in the Royals. Only this time, they're the hunted.
As close as the AL Central teams might be on paper, I think there's a definite gap between the top two and the bottom two, with Cleveland right smack in the middle. The way I see it, it'll be a battle between the Tigers and Royals for the division title, while the Twins will regress back to the mean and the White Sox are just a step behind, even with Chris Sale.
1. Detroit Tigers: Injuries and the law of averages finally caught up to the Tigers in 2015. Not only did they fail to win the AL Central for the first time in five years, they finished below .500. Things got so bad that they fired David Dombrowski (now President of the Red Sox) and traded David Price to the Blue Jays at the deadline. Well, they recovered in a big way this offseason, getting the second-best starting pitcher available behind Price in Jordan Zimmermann. Pair him with Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and you've got the best top three in the division. But the biggest move the Tigers made to improve their pitching staff was the addition of Francisco Rodriguez. The bullpen has long been their Achilles' heel. It should've have taken them this long to address it, but I'm glad they finally did. Lineup-wise, they're kind of like the Yankees in that they rely heavily on high-priced veterans and are pretty much screwed if they get hurt (like last year when Miguel Cabrera went down). But when healthy, this lineup is really formidable. J.D. Martinez has turned into a legitimate star. And we'll see if Justin Upton is worth the money after escaping San Diego. By opting not to re-sign Alex Avila, it looks like they've handed the catching duties over to James McCann. That's the one area of concern I have for the Tigers, although they're not very deep, so they could end up having the same problems as last year if they with an injury or two again.
Projected Lineup: Ian Kinsler-2B, Anthony Gose-CF, Miguel Cabrera-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, J.D. Martinez-RF, Justin Upton-LF, Nick Castellanos-3B, James McCann-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Pelfrey, Daniel Norris
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Kansas City Royals: They're not a secret anymore, and the defending champion Royals are a prime example of what can happen when you draft well. The only real question after Kansas City's first championship in 30 years is what will they do for an encore? The core of the team remains in tact, so you'd have to think they've got a decent shot of becoming the first team to win back-to-back World Series since the 1998-2000 Yankees. The biggest difference (other than the departures of Alex Rios and Ben Zobrist) is the addition of Ian Kennedy to the rotation. Kennedy was forced to be a No. 1 in San Diego, but is better suited to being a No. 3 or 4 starter, which is where he figures to be slotted with the Royals. Kansas City's biggest strength remains its ridiculous bullpen, though. And, just in case you were worried they didn't have enough stud relievers, they picked up Joakim Soria during the offseason. So, even if Wade Davis goes down, they've got an experienced closer in Soria ready to step in. That's the one are where Kansas City has gotten incredibly lucky over the past two seasons. For the most part, the Royals have been able to avoid significant injuries. But, they're also better-equipped than most other teams to handle it should one happen. That's why no one will get caught off guard by the Royals this season. Barring something catastrophic, Kansas City should be in the mix to make it three straight World Series appearances or even consecutive championships.
Projected Lineup: Alcides Escobar-SS, Alex Gordon-LF, Lorenzo Cain-CF, Eric Hosmer-1B, Kendrys Morales-DH, Mike Moustakas-3B, Salvador Perez-C, Omar Infante-2B, Jarrod Dyson-RF
Projected Rotation: Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Ian Kennedy, Chris Young, Kris Medlen
Closer: Wade Davis
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Cleveland Indians: A lot of people have high expectations for the Indians this season. And I can see why. There's a lot of talent in Cleveland. I just have too many questions to say I realistically see them challenging the Tigers and Royals for the division title. Michael Brantley, Jason Kipns and Yan Gomes are stars. Francisco Lindor is going to be a superstar. But outside of that quartet (and, to a lesser extent, Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli), I'm not overly enamored with their lineup. I think scoring runs could be an issue. Which will put a lot of pressure on the pitching staff. After winning the Cy Young in 2014, Corey Kluber went just 9-16 last year. He needs to return to his Cy Young form for the Indians to have any shot at contending. The rest of the rotation is serviceable (they all won at least 10 games last season), but they need Kluber to go back to being a true No. 1. It's the bullpen that gives me the biggest concern, though. On a small-market team like the Indians, relief pitching is the area you're most likely not to spend big on, and that's certainly the case in Cleveland. Cody Allen is vanilla as far as closers go, and I can't tell you the name of any other guys in the Indians' bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Francisco Lindor-SS, Abraham Almonte-CF, Jason Kipnis-2B, Michael Brantley-LF, Mike Napoli-1B, Carlos Santana-DH, Yan Gomes-C, Juan Uribe-3B, Lonnie Chisenhall-RF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin
Closer: Cody Allen
Projected Record: 81-81
4. Chicago White Sox: Most of the news we've heard about the White Sox lately has involved Adam and Drake LaRoche. That derailed all talk of anything else on the South Side, where there have been so many changes it seems like the entire roster is new except for Jose Abreu and Chris Sale. Brett Lawrie came over from Oakland to play second. After losing his job in LA to Corey Seager, Jimmy Rollins signed with the White Sox and will play short. Austin Jackson finished last season with the Cubs and liked Chicago so much that he just changed which part of town the ballpark's in. Alex Avila wasn't even given an offer by his father in Detroit, so he bolted for the division rival White Sox. But the biggest addition is at the Hot Corner. The White Sox pulled off a major coup by snagging All-Star third baseman (and Home Run Derby champion) Todd Frazier in a trade with the Reds. With all these new faces in the lineup, it'll be interesting to see what their team chemistry will be like. (And, frankly, LaRoche's retirement doesn't really have much of an impact.) They've got a very strong pitching staff, too. Chris Sale is obviously the anchor, but the rotation is very solid 1-5. And they, of course, have a ridiculous closer in David Robertson. If things go as well as the White Sox believe they can, the Cubs won't be the only Chicago team people will be talking about this season. It won't take much for the White Sox to contend in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Jimmy Rollins-SS, Jose Abreu-1B, Todd Frazier-3B, Melky Cabrera-DH, Alex Avila-C, Avisail Garcia-RF, Adam Eaton-LF, Brett Lawrie-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Mat Latos, John Danks
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 79-83
5. Minnesota Twins: Last season, everything went right for the Twins and then some. They were the surprise wild card contender all the way until the bitter end and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor was a Manager of the Year finalist in his first year at the helm. Can the Twins do it again? Sure. But in a loaded AL Central, it'll take a lot. The long-awaited Byron Buxton debut took place in September, and now he'll get his first full Major League season. Putting him next to Miguel Sano, last year's rookie sensation, and Eddie Rosario gives Minnesota a young, talented outfield, one that was good enough for them to deem Aaron Hicks expendable, so he was traded to the Yankees for backup catcher John Ryan Murphy. The Twins' two best players are probably Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe, but Face of the Franchise Joe Mauer has significantly less value to this team as a first baseman. And he's turned into a downright average player. Beyond that, I'm concerned about the pitching. Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana are Nos. 1 and 2 in the rotation, but on another team, they'd probably more like a 3 or 4. Which is a shame. Because Glen Perkins is one of the most underrated closers in baseball. He's been solid for the last three or four years now. The Minnesota Twins overachieved in 2015 and still didn't make the playoffs. The rest of the AL Central is better this season, so they'll have to overachieve again, and then some, to contend in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Brian Dozier-2B, Joe Mauer-1B, Trevor Plouffe-3B, Miguel Sano-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, Byung Ho Park-DH, Kurt Suzuki-C, Eduardo Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone
Closer: Glen Perkins
Projected Record: 72-90
Nobody saw Kansas City coming in 2014. Even after their run to Game 7 of the World Series, the Royals still had their doubters. Most preseason projections didn't even have them finishing .500. All they did was get back to the World Series, and win it this time. Now I think everyone is finally believers in the Royals. Only this time, they're the hunted.
As close as the AL Central teams might be on paper, I think there's a definite gap between the top two and the bottom two, with Cleveland right smack in the middle. The way I see it, it'll be a battle between the Tigers and Royals for the division title, while the Twins will regress back to the mean and the White Sox are just a step behind, even with Chris Sale.
1. Detroit Tigers: Injuries and the law of averages finally caught up to the Tigers in 2015. Not only did they fail to win the AL Central for the first time in five years, they finished below .500. Things got so bad that they fired David Dombrowski (now President of the Red Sox) and traded David Price to the Blue Jays at the deadline. Well, they recovered in a big way this offseason, getting the second-best starting pitcher available behind Price in Jordan Zimmermann. Pair him with Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez and you've got the best top three in the division. But the biggest move the Tigers made to improve their pitching staff was the addition of Francisco Rodriguez. The bullpen has long been their Achilles' heel. It should've have taken them this long to address it, but I'm glad they finally did. Lineup-wise, they're kind of like the Yankees in that they rely heavily on high-priced veterans and are pretty much screwed if they get hurt (like last year when Miguel Cabrera went down). But when healthy, this lineup is really formidable. J.D. Martinez has turned into a legitimate star. And we'll see if Justin Upton is worth the money after escaping San Diego. By opting not to re-sign Alex Avila, it looks like they've handed the catching duties over to James McCann. That's the one area of concern I have for the Tigers, although they're not very deep, so they could end up having the same problems as last year if they with an injury or two again.
Projected Lineup: Ian Kinsler-2B, Anthony Gose-CF, Miguel Cabrera-1B, Victor Martinez-DH, J.D. Martinez-RF, Justin Upton-LF, Nick Castellanos-3B, James McCann-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Pelfrey, Daniel Norris
Closer: Francisco Rodriguez
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Kansas City Royals: They're not a secret anymore, and the defending champion Royals are a prime example of what can happen when you draft well. The only real question after Kansas City's first championship in 30 years is what will they do for an encore? The core of the team remains in tact, so you'd have to think they've got a decent shot of becoming the first team to win back-to-back World Series since the 1998-2000 Yankees. The biggest difference (other than the departures of Alex Rios and Ben Zobrist) is the addition of Ian Kennedy to the rotation. Kennedy was forced to be a No. 1 in San Diego, but is better suited to being a No. 3 or 4 starter, which is where he figures to be slotted with the Royals. Kansas City's biggest strength remains its ridiculous bullpen, though. And, just in case you were worried they didn't have enough stud relievers, they picked up Joakim Soria during the offseason. So, even if Wade Davis goes down, they've got an experienced closer in Soria ready to step in. That's the one are where Kansas City has gotten incredibly lucky over the past two seasons. For the most part, the Royals have been able to avoid significant injuries. But, they're also better-equipped than most other teams to handle it should one happen. That's why no one will get caught off guard by the Royals this season. Barring something catastrophic, Kansas City should be in the mix to make it three straight World Series appearances or even consecutive championships.
Projected Lineup: Alcides Escobar-SS, Alex Gordon-LF, Lorenzo Cain-CF, Eric Hosmer-1B, Kendrys Morales-DH, Mike Moustakas-3B, Salvador Perez-C, Omar Infante-2B, Jarrod Dyson-RF
Projected Rotation: Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Ian Kennedy, Chris Young, Kris Medlen
Closer: Wade Davis
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Cleveland Indians: A lot of people have high expectations for the Indians this season. And I can see why. There's a lot of talent in Cleveland. I just have too many questions to say I realistically see them challenging the Tigers and Royals for the division title. Michael Brantley, Jason Kipns and Yan Gomes are stars. Francisco Lindor is going to be a superstar. But outside of that quartet (and, to a lesser extent, Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli), I'm not overly enamored with their lineup. I think scoring runs could be an issue. Which will put a lot of pressure on the pitching staff. After winning the Cy Young in 2014, Corey Kluber went just 9-16 last year. He needs to return to his Cy Young form for the Indians to have any shot at contending. The rest of the rotation is serviceable (they all won at least 10 games last season), but they need Kluber to go back to being a true No. 1. It's the bullpen that gives me the biggest concern, though. On a small-market team like the Indians, relief pitching is the area you're most likely not to spend big on, and that's certainly the case in Cleveland. Cody Allen is vanilla as far as closers go, and I can't tell you the name of any other guys in the Indians' bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Francisco Lindor-SS, Abraham Almonte-CF, Jason Kipnis-2B, Michael Brantley-LF, Mike Napoli-1B, Carlos Santana-DH, Yan Gomes-C, Juan Uribe-3B, Lonnie Chisenhall-RF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin
Closer: Cody Allen
Projected Record: 81-81
4. Chicago White Sox: Most of the news we've heard about the White Sox lately has involved Adam and Drake LaRoche. That derailed all talk of anything else on the South Side, where there have been so many changes it seems like the entire roster is new except for Jose Abreu and Chris Sale. Brett Lawrie came over from Oakland to play second. After losing his job in LA to Corey Seager, Jimmy Rollins signed with the White Sox and will play short. Austin Jackson finished last season with the Cubs and liked Chicago so much that he just changed which part of town the ballpark's in. Alex Avila wasn't even given an offer by his father in Detroit, so he bolted for the division rival White Sox. But the biggest addition is at the Hot Corner. The White Sox pulled off a major coup by snagging All-Star third baseman (and Home Run Derby champion) Todd Frazier in a trade with the Reds. With all these new faces in the lineup, it'll be interesting to see what their team chemistry will be like. (And, frankly, LaRoche's retirement doesn't really have much of an impact.) They've got a very strong pitching staff, too. Chris Sale is obviously the anchor, but the rotation is very solid 1-5. And they, of course, have a ridiculous closer in David Robertson. If things go as well as the White Sox believe they can, the Cubs won't be the only Chicago team people will be talking about this season. It won't take much for the White Sox to contend in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF, Jimmy Rollins-SS, Jose Abreu-1B, Todd Frazier-3B, Melky Cabrera-DH, Alex Avila-C, Avisail Garcia-RF, Adam Eaton-LF, Brett Lawrie-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Mat Latos, John Danks
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 79-83
5. Minnesota Twins: Last season, everything went right for the Twins and then some. They were the surprise wild card contender all the way until the bitter end and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor was a Manager of the Year finalist in his first year at the helm. Can the Twins do it again? Sure. But in a loaded AL Central, it'll take a lot. The long-awaited Byron Buxton debut took place in September, and now he'll get his first full Major League season. Putting him next to Miguel Sano, last year's rookie sensation, and Eddie Rosario gives Minnesota a young, talented outfield, one that was good enough for them to deem Aaron Hicks expendable, so he was traded to the Yankees for backup catcher John Ryan Murphy. The Twins' two best players are probably Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe, but Face of the Franchise Joe Mauer has significantly less value to this team as a first baseman. And he's turned into a downright average player. Beyond that, I'm concerned about the pitching. Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana are Nos. 1 and 2 in the rotation, but on another team, they'd probably more like a 3 or 4. Which is a shame. Because Glen Perkins is one of the most underrated closers in baseball. He's been solid for the last three or four years now. The Minnesota Twins overachieved in 2015 and still didn't make the playoffs. The rest of the AL Central is better this season, so they'll have to overachieve again, and then some, to contend in 2016.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Brian Dozier-2B, Joe Mauer-1B, Trevor Plouffe-3B, Miguel Sano-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, Byung Ho Park-DH, Kurt Suzuki-C, Eduardo Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey, Tommy Milone
Closer: Glen Perkins
Projected Record: 72-90
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
2016 Baseball Preview, Part 1
My Yankees season tickets arrived today. There was also that historic exhibition game between the Rays and the Cuban National Team in Havana. You know what all this means? Baseball's getting close! In fact, it's less than two weeks until Opening Day.
Since I'm already talking about the Yankees and Rays, I think it makes sense to start my annual six-part baseball preview in the AL East. This division figures to be as competitive as usual this season. The Blue Jays are the defending division champs, and they show no signs of slowing down. Expect their trade deadline acquisition, David Price, left as a free agent, but stayed in the division with Boston. The Red Sox have been a last-place disappointment in each of the last two seasons, but they think bringing in Price to bolster the starting rotation will bring them back to the top. Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying the opposite approach. They're trying to win games from the ninth inning forward instead of the other way around.
I think the division title will probably come down to those three, but it'll be very close. And it's not as if the Rays and Orioles are that far behind, either. Chris Archer's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and Tampa Bay's going to win a lot of games that he pitches. How many of those come against those top three could determine which two go to the playoffs and which one doesn't.
1. New York Yankees: Last season, nobody expected anything from the Yankees and their "mediocre" starting staff. All they did was make the playoffs. Sure, they struggled down the stretch and got shut out in the wild card game, but injuries and an overworked bullpen were the big reasons for that. The rotation wasn't great, but it wasn't a problem, either. This year, they've got six guys for five spots, so the rotation is theoretically deeper. But the strength of this team is the bullpen. After seeing the Royals win a pennant, then a World Series behind a dominant bullpen, the Yankees went out and made the best part of the team even better. Aroldis Chapman is suspended for the first 30 games, so he won't make his debut until May, which could actually be a good thing. Because the Yankees' relievers ran out of gas last September. As for the position players, yes a bunch of them are old and fragile. And, no, you can't absolutely expect A-Rod and Teixeira to have the same type of year they had in 2015. But they also made some great additions to get both younger and better at the same time. I love the addition of Starlin Castro, which solves the second base problem that has persisted since Robinson Cano left. Aaron Hicks will be tremendous, too. Personally, I'd trade Brett Gardner and Ivan Nova to both alleviate the starting pitching situation and give Hicks a place to play, but I think he'll get plenty of opportunities. The Greg Bird injury was a blow since they don't have a backup first baseman now, but between Ackley and Headley, they'll be OK to give Teixeira days off. He can't get hurt for an extended period of time again, though. If he does, then you flip one of the starting pitchers for a first baseman.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Brett Gardner-LF, Alex Rodriguez-DH, Mark Teixeira-1B, Carlos Beltran-RF, Brian McCann-C, Chase Headley-3B, Didi Gregorius-SS, Starlin Castro-2B
Projected Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia
Closer: Aroldis Chapman (Suspended), Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 89-73
2. Toronto Blue Jays: After years of everyone hyping them as the next big thing, the Toronto Blue Jays finally came through and won a division title last season. Toronto has always been able to outhit you, and last season they got the pitching to back it up. When they got David Price, they knew it was a rental, but it was one that worked out nicely. And this season, they'll get a full year from Marcus Stroman (who still really bugs me with that single-digit number). They also upgraded the bullpen with the addition of former Nationals closer Drew Storen. The most important thing for the Blue Jays, though, is that the best lineup in baseball returns essentially in tact. The only change is in left field, where midseason addition Ben Revere is gone. However, they had the built-in replacement in Michael Saunders, who was expected to be their center fielder last season, but missed the entire year due to injury. When they got him last year, I though Saunders was a great fit with this team, and I still do. And with Kevin Pillar fully ingrained as the starting center fielder, moving Saunders to left was the only logical solution. And he gives them another ridiculous power bat. Expect the homers to fly out of SkyDome once again. Will the pitching be able to keep pace and lead the Blue Jays back to the playoffs?
Projected Lineup: Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Josh Donaldson-3B, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Chris Colabello-1B, Russell Martin-C, Michael Saunders-LF, Kevin Pillar-CF, Ryan Goins-2B
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez
Closer: Drew Storen
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Boston Red Sox: In 2015, the Red Sox made a big splash by acquiring Pablo Sandoval to play third base and Hanley Ramirez to play left field. That went about as well as most people expected. Hanley had no interest in playing left field and was incredibly bad at it, resulting in his relegation to "injured" by the end of the season. This season, they'll try Hanley at first base. Personally, I think the best solution would be to put Hanley at third and Panda at first, but we'll see how this works out. They'll only need to figure it out for one year, anyway, since David Oritz has already announced he's retiring after the season. Boston's overreliance on high-priced veterans has created a bit of a problem, though. It's blocked their talented young players from cracking into the lineup. Brock Holt, for example, can play anywhere and made the All-Star team last year. He's stuck being Ben Zobrist, though, since they don't have a place to play him (because they already have another starter everywhere he plays). Their biggest problem last season, though, wasn't the lineup. It was the rotation. They expected to get Jon Lester back, but didn't, leaving a big hole they were never able to fill. So they overspent for David Price, which didn't surprise anyone. They needed a big-name starter and Price certainly fits the bill. He also knows the division, having pitched in Tampa Bay and Toronto. The addition of Price will instantly make the Red Sox pitching staff better. The bullpen will be better, too, with former Braves All-Star Craig Kimbrel taking over as the closer.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, David Ortiz-DH, Hanley Ramirez-1B, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Rusney Castillo-LF, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Blake Swihart-C, Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: David Price, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 86-76
4. Tampa Bay Rays: What's the slight difference that gives Tampa Bay the edge over Baltimore in my book? The pitching staff. Chris Archer is a legitimate ace, and they've got some solid arms behind him, especially Matt Moore and Jake Odorizzi. Their bullpen will be in rough shape until closer Brad Boxberger comes off the DL in June, but the Rays team I watched beat Cuba today will hold their own with anybody. They'll need to hit, though. And Tampa Bay certainly looks like they'll be better than last year in that regard. Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison will add significantly more pop to a lineup that's already anchored by Evan Longoria and James Loney. They also have arguably the best center fielder in the game in Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays' defense will do a good job of preventing runs, provided the pitchers don't give up too many, and the offense is able to provide some. They're nowhere near as good as the team Joe Maddon took to the World Series eight years ago. I highly doubt they're good enough to make the playoffs, too. But they're not going to be bad. In fact, I think it'll be the Tampa Bay Rays that determine who wins the AL East. It won't be them, though.
Projected Lineup: Brad Miller-SS, Steven Souza Jr.-RF, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, Corey Dickerson-LF, Logan Morrison-DH, Logan Forsythe-2B, Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Rene Rivera-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, Erasmo Ramirez
Closer: Brad Boxberger (DL), Alex Colome
Projected Record: 75-87
5. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have two bona fide superstars in Manny Machado and Adam Jones, as well as a very good catcher in Matt Wieters. And Chris Davis re-signing definitely bolstered the lineup. That would've been an incredibly deep hole to fill. Pedro Alvarez to DH and Mark Trumbo to play right seem like odds fits, especially since Trumbo's best position is DH, a position it'll be virtually impossible for him to play with Alvarez and Davis both there (and you can't really have Alvarez play third, seeing as Machado's entrenched over there). As a result, right field is the only place to put him. Fortunately, Adam Jones covers a lot of ground defensively. My real concern with Baltimore is the pitching staff, though. They haven't had a marquee starter in quite some time, yet managed to get away with it during that run to a division title two years ago. Yovani Gallardo, who they picked up from Texas in the offseason, is the closest thing they have to one. Gallardo replaced Wei-Yin Chen in the rotation, which made it a little bit stronger, but it's really more of a wash. Should Dylan Bundy arrive this season and prove to be everything people expect he will, my opinion of the Orioles' rotation will change, but it's because of that rotation that I give Tampa Bay the slight edge over Baltimore. The bullpen should be fine. Zach Britton, Darren O'Day and T.J. McFarland are all back.
Projected Lineup: J.J. Hardy-SS, Manny Machado-3B, Chris Davis-1B, Adam Jones-CF, Mark Trumbo-RF, Pedro Alvarez-DH, Matt Wieters-C, Nolan Reimold-LF, Jonathan Schoop-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Tillman, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Michael Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman
Closer: Zach Britton
Projected Record: 74-88
With the Yankees and Blue Jays arguably just as strong on paper as last season's playoff teams and expected improvement in Boston, the AL East should be up for grabs. One key injury or one big trade deadline addition could be the difference between last place and winning the division. You could easily take my projected standings and flip them upside down and end up being right. The five teams are thisclose.
Since I'm already talking about the Yankees and Rays, I think it makes sense to start my annual six-part baseball preview in the AL East. This division figures to be as competitive as usual this season. The Blue Jays are the defending division champs, and they show no signs of slowing down. Expect their trade deadline acquisition, David Price, left as a free agent, but stayed in the division with Boston. The Red Sox have been a last-place disappointment in each of the last two seasons, but they think bringing in Price to bolster the starting rotation will bring them back to the top. Meanwhile, the Yankees are trying the opposite approach. They're trying to win games from the ninth inning forward instead of the other way around.
I think the division title will probably come down to those three, but it'll be very close. And it's not as if the Rays and Orioles are that far behind, either. Chris Archer's one of the best pitchers in baseball, and Tampa Bay's going to win a lot of games that he pitches. How many of those come against those top three could determine which two go to the playoffs and which one doesn't.
1. New York Yankees: Last season, nobody expected anything from the Yankees and their "mediocre" starting staff. All they did was make the playoffs. Sure, they struggled down the stretch and got shut out in the wild card game, but injuries and an overworked bullpen were the big reasons for that. The rotation wasn't great, but it wasn't a problem, either. This year, they've got six guys for five spots, so the rotation is theoretically deeper. But the strength of this team is the bullpen. After seeing the Royals win a pennant, then a World Series behind a dominant bullpen, the Yankees went out and made the best part of the team even better. Aroldis Chapman is suspended for the first 30 games, so he won't make his debut until May, which could actually be a good thing. Because the Yankees' relievers ran out of gas last September. As for the position players, yes a bunch of them are old and fragile. And, no, you can't absolutely expect A-Rod and Teixeira to have the same type of year they had in 2015. But they also made some great additions to get both younger and better at the same time. I love the addition of Starlin Castro, which solves the second base problem that has persisted since Robinson Cano left. Aaron Hicks will be tremendous, too. Personally, I'd trade Brett Gardner and Ivan Nova to both alleviate the starting pitching situation and give Hicks a place to play, but I think he'll get plenty of opportunities. The Greg Bird injury was a blow since they don't have a backup first baseman now, but between Ackley and Headley, they'll be OK to give Teixeira days off. He can't get hurt for an extended period of time again, though. If he does, then you flip one of the starting pitchers for a first baseman.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Brett Gardner-LF, Alex Rodriguez-DH, Mark Teixeira-1B, Carlos Beltran-RF, Brian McCann-C, Chase Headley-3B, Didi Gregorius-SS, Starlin Castro-2B
Projected Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, CC Sabathia
Closer: Aroldis Chapman (Suspended), Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 89-73
2. Toronto Blue Jays: After years of everyone hyping them as the next big thing, the Toronto Blue Jays finally came through and won a division title last season. Toronto has always been able to outhit you, and last season they got the pitching to back it up. When they got David Price, they knew it was a rental, but it was one that worked out nicely. And this season, they'll get a full year from Marcus Stroman (who still really bugs me with that single-digit number). They also upgraded the bullpen with the addition of former Nationals closer Drew Storen. The most important thing for the Blue Jays, though, is that the best lineup in baseball returns essentially in tact. The only change is in left field, where midseason addition Ben Revere is gone. However, they had the built-in replacement in Michael Saunders, who was expected to be their center fielder last season, but missed the entire year due to injury. When they got him last year, I though Saunders was a great fit with this team, and I still do. And with Kevin Pillar fully ingrained as the starting center fielder, moving Saunders to left was the only logical solution. And he gives them another ridiculous power bat. Expect the homers to fly out of SkyDome once again. Will the pitching be able to keep pace and lead the Blue Jays back to the playoffs?
Projected Lineup: Troy Tulowitzki-SS, Josh Donaldson-3B, Jose Bautista-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Chris Colabello-1B, Russell Martin-C, Michael Saunders-LF, Kevin Pillar-CF, Ryan Goins-2B
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez
Closer: Drew Storen
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Boston Red Sox: In 2015, the Red Sox made a big splash by acquiring Pablo Sandoval to play third base and Hanley Ramirez to play left field. That went about as well as most people expected. Hanley had no interest in playing left field and was incredibly bad at it, resulting in his relegation to "injured" by the end of the season. This season, they'll try Hanley at first base. Personally, I think the best solution would be to put Hanley at third and Panda at first, but we'll see how this works out. They'll only need to figure it out for one year, anyway, since David Oritz has already announced he's retiring after the season. Boston's overreliance on high-priced veterans has created a bit of a problem, though. It's blocked their talented young players from cracking into the lineup. Brock Holt, for example, can play anywhere and made the All-Star team last year. He's stuck being Ben Zobrist, though, since they don't have a place to play him (because they already have another starter everywhere he plays). Their biggest problem last season, though, wasn't the lineup. It was the rotation. They expected to get Jon Lester back, but didn't, leaving a big hole they were never able to fill. So they overspent for David Price, which didn't surprise anyone. They needed a big-name starter and Price certainly fits the bill. He also knows the division, having pitched in Tampa Bay and Toronto. The addition of Price will instantly make the Red Sox pitching staff better. The bullpen will be better, too, with former Braves All-Star Craig Kimbrel taking over as the closer.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, David Ortiz-DH, Hanley Ramirez-1B, Pablo Sandoval-3B, Rusney Castillo-LF, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Blake Swihart-C, Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: David Price, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Joe Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 86-76
4. Tampa Bay Rays: What's the slight difference that gives Tampa Bay the edge over Baltimore in my book? The pitching staff. Chris Archer is a legitimate ace, and they've got some solid arms behind him, especially Matt Moore and Jake Odorizzi. Their bullpen will be in rough shape until closer Brad Boxberger comes off the DL in June, but the Rays team I watched beat Cuba today will hold their own with anybody. They'll need to hit, though. And Tampa Bay certainly looks like they'll be better than last year in that regard. Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison will add significantly more pop to a lineup that's already anchored by Evan Longoria and James Loney. They also have arguably the best center fielder in the game in Kevin Kiermaier. The Rays' defense will do a good job of preventing runs, provided the pitchers don't give up too many, and the offense is able to provide some. They're nowhere near as good as the team Joe Maddon took to the World Series eight years ago. I highly doubt they're good enough to make the playoffs, too. But they're not going to be bad. In fact, I think it'll be the Tampa Bay Rays that determine who wins the AL East. It won't be them, though.
Projected Lineup: Brad Miller-SS, Steven Souza Jr.-RF, Evan Longoria-3B, James Loney-1B, Corey Dickerson-LF, Logan Morrison-DH, Logan Forsythe-2B, Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Rene Rivera-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, Erasmo Ramirez
Closer: Brad Boxberger (DL), Alex Colome
Projected Record: 75-87
5. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have two bona fide superstars in Manny Machado and Adam Jones, as well as a very good catcher in Matt Wieters. And Chris Davis re-signing definitely bolstered the lineup. That would've been an incredibly deep hole to fill. Pedro Alvarez to DH and Mark Trumbo to play right seem like odds fits, especially since Trumbo's best position is DH, a position it'll be virtually impossible for him to play with Alvarez and Davis both there (and you can't really have Alvarez play third, seeing as Machado's entrenched over there). As a result, right field is the only place to put him. Fortunately, Adam Jones covers a lot of ground defensively. My real concern with Baltimore is the pitching staff, though. They haven't had a marquee starter in quite some time, yet managed to get away with it during that run to a division title two years ago. Yovani Gallardo, who they picked up from Texas in the offseason, is the closest thing they have to one. Gallardo replaced Wei-Yin Chen in the rotation, which made it a little bit stronger, but it's really more of a wash. Should Dylan Bundy arrive this season and prove to be everything people expect he will, my opinion of the Orioles' rotation will change, but it's because of that rotation that I give Tampa Bay the slight edge over Baltimore. The bullpen should be fine. Zach Britton, Darren O'Day and T.J. McFarland are all back.
Projected Lineup: J.J. Hardy-SS, Manny Machado-3B, Chris Davis-1B, Adam Jones-CF, Mark Trumbo-RF, Pedro Alvarez-DH, Matt Wieters-C, Nolan Reimold-LF, Jonathan Schoop-2B
Projected Rotation: Chris Tillman, Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez, Michael Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman
Closer: Zach Britton
Projected Record: 74-88
With the Yankees and Blue Jays arguably just as strong on paper as last season's playoff teams and expected improvement in Boston, the AL East should be up for grabs. One key injury or one big trade deadline addition could be the difference between last place and winning the division. You could easily take my projected standings and flip them upside down and end up being right. The five teams are thisclose.
Monday, March 21, 2016
Family First
It sure took a lot of courage for Adam LaRoche to do what he did. Whether or not you agree with his decision, it certainly says a lot that he was willing to give up $15 million in salary with his abrupt retirement. All of which stemmed from a philosophical difference he had with White Sox Vice President Ken Williams regarding his son.
Of course, when LaRoche announced he was retiring, no one knew the backstory. It only came out after the fact. Apparently Williams told LaRoche that his son, who was at Spring Training everyday, shouldn't be in the clubhouse so much. In fact, he asked him to significantly dial it back. This didn't sit well with LaRoche, who said that one of the reasons he signed with the White Sox in the first place was because he was given assurances that his son would be welcome. And the problem was exacerbated because, evidently, it was only Williams that had a problem with Drake LaRoche being there. No other players or coaches said anything. Williams took it upon himself to say something to Adam LaRoche, who took exception to the way he handled the situation.
Predictably, the other White Sox players had Adam LaRoche's back. They all said how much they liked Drake and how he never got in their way or they felt uncomfortable having him around. Chris Sale was one of the most vocal critics of the whole thing, saying that Williams flat-out lied about the situation and contradicted himself with the different versions of his story.
Mainly, the general feeling I got was that LaRoche and the other players thought that if there was a problem, the person who should've had the conversation was manager Robin Ventura. At the very least, the message should've been consistent. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf has acknowledged that mistakes were made throughout the entire ordeal, saying it was the result of a miscommunication and a misunderstanding. Reinsdorf has said the issue is closed, but it might not be. The players' union is considering filing a grievance on LaRoche's behalf.
This is definitely a unique situation. I've never heard of something like this being a reason to retire. The White Sox have left the door open in case he changes his mind, but Adam LaRoche seems to be pretty content with his decision (he indicated he was probably going to retire after this season anyway). He filed his retirement paperwork. He wouldn't have done that if he wasn't serious. I don't think there's any "working it out" that can be done here.
Ken Williams has been getting it pretty hard from all angles on this one, and I think even he'd admit that he probably should've handled it better. But he was well within his rights as a member of management to enforce organizational policy. The problem is it's still not clear what that policy is.
For years, Major League teams have allowed players to bring their sons into the clubhouse. Different teams have different rules, but baseball always has been about family. Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey, Jr., grew up around Major League clubhouses. So did Prince Fielder and so many other Major League stars. So did Adam LaRoche, whose father, Dave, pitched in the Majors, and brother, Andy, also plays. It's growing up in the game that fosters that passion and passes baseball on from generation to generation.
Every team has its own policy, but there isn't a team in the Majors that doesn't let its players bring their families into the clubhouse. Some only allow it after wins. Some do it only on certain days. Still others let the kids on the field and in the clubhouse up until game time, but they're gone by the time batting practice starts. The moral of the story, though, is that all 30 Major League clubs welcome their players' children with open arms. And I'd assume that also includes the Chicago White Sox.
While defending his position, Ken Williams did make one valid point. A Major League clubhouse is a workplace, and there isn't a workplace in America that lets their employees bring their kids to the office everyday. But, he forgot another important point when making that argument: A Major League clubhouse isn't like any other workplace in America. These guys are away from their families so much that before and after games in the clubhouse might be the only time the get to spend with their kids.
I don't know what the answer is here, and I'll never be in this position myself. But you have to think the Adam LaRoche saga didn't have to come to this. Ken Williams was wrong with the way he handled it. You also have to think that there had to be some middle ground here, if the two sides were just willing to find it.
You have to give Adam LaRoche a lot of credit, though. His family was more important to him than being a Major League baseball player. I'm sure he didn't want his retirement to become the story it did, but there's something to be said about putting your family first. Of course, we've seen it before. Daniel Murphy missed Opening Day last year to be at his son's birth, and it's written into the CBA that teams are required to give players paternity and bereavement leave.
Only Adam LaRoche can say whether or not he made the right decision. But it was clearly the right one for him. And it was one he had no hesitation making. And, whether you agree with him or not, you've gotta respect that.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Down to 64, Now It's Time For Picks
Now that the First Four is over (someone please let FDU and Vanderbilt know that the First Four started) and we no longer have to pretend Tulsa belonged in the tournament, we're ready to start the tournament proper. The greatest two days in sports are ahead of us. Thursday and Friday of the first week of the NCAA Tournament.
And now that we've got that convenient 64-team bracket without that annoying "vs. winner of..." that the First Four gives us, I can actually take a look at the whole thing and make some picks. Sports Illustrated is going with Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State, and I can't say I disagree with that. Kansas, North Carolina and Michigan State are the three best teams in the tournament, and in a West region that looks like it could be full of upsets, I like Oklahoma and Buddy Hield to come out of it.
It'll be much easier to break this down region by region, so let's start in the South where No. 1 overall seed Kansas resides. They didn't make things easy for the Jayhawks, either. But they're the most talented team in this region, which I think will be the difference. There are probably a lot of people picking UConn in the second round (the Final Four IS in Texas, and it does seem to be a rule that UConn wins the national title when the Final Four is in Texas). I also think they'll get a challenge from Cal in the Sweet 16 (after Cal beats South Dakota State, which will give us our 5-12 upset against Maryland). As for the bottom half of that region, I've got no idea. Villanova always chokes i the Tournament. In fact, I can see them losing to Iowa. Miami's not that good, either. Frankly, I can see the Arizona-Wichita State winner making it all the way to the Elite Eight.
Kansas's Final Four opponent will come out of the West, where Oregon is the top seed, yet no one seems to be picking the Ducks. In fact, there are a lot of people who have Oregon losing to Baylor in a Sweet 16 game that will test the contrast on your TV as much as that Michigan-Syracuse Final Four game a couple years ago did. Problem is, I'm not sure Baylor gets there. Getting past Yale and Duke is a very difficult proposition. If the Bears do make it to Anaheim, I agree they'd be a tough matchup for Oregon. But I'm going with Duke. Baylor reaching the Sweet 16 would also make it a Big 12 party in Anaheim. Oklahoma should be there, and Texas A&M is still an honorary Big 12 member (as much as I would love to see Texas beat them, it's not happening; neither is the Texas vs. VCU Shaka Smart Bowl). I just think Oklahoma's the most talented team in this region, and the matchups are incredibly favorable for a Sooners trip to Houston.
North Carolina is heavily favored in a loaded East. The Tar Heels' biggest challenge might come from Kentucky, which looks like the Kentucky team we normally expect to see for really the first time this season. Remember, two years ago, nobody was talking about Kentucky, and they ended up in the Championship Game as an 8-seed. Then last year they went into the Final Four undefeated and lost to Wisconsin. I don't really know if it's possible for Kentucky to be a "sleeper" Final Four pick, but there's a good number of people that wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats in Houston. If North Carolina plays the way they did in the ACC Tournament, though, they ain't losing to any of these teams. Especially if they play Notre Dame again in the Elite 8, which the bracket indicates just might happen.
I want very badly for the top two seeds in the Midwest to reach the Regional Final. Because Michigan State should've been the 1-seed over Virginia, and they're going to prove it by knocking the Cavaliers out of the Tournament for the third consecutive year. Iowa State appears to be the team most capable of preventing that matchup, but they've first got to worry about Iona in a game that could be as high-scoring as the NBA All-Star Game. I'm not sleeping on Utah, either. That's the second-best team out of a very strong Pac-12. Michigan State's the best team in this region, though.
So, I agree with Sports Illustrated. My Final Four is Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State. Kansas and Oklahoma played a phenomenal double-overtime game in Lawrence when Oklahoma was ranked No. 1, and I think a Final Four meeting between the rivals would be very similar. Buddy Hield will be the best player on the floor, but Kansas will be the best team on the floor, which will be the difference. North Carolina-Michigan State is much more of a toss-up. I'd love to see this matchup, if just to see Roy Williams and Tom Izzo try to out-coach each other. If North Carolina's playing well, they're the better team. But they almost have to be perfect, and Michigan State is very good at making teams play their game. I don't think North Carolina would be an exception, so I give the slight edge to Sparty.
That gives me a National Championship Game between Kansas and Michigan State. But, like I've been saying all along, I think Kansas is the best team in the nation. They won't make the same mistakes against Michigan State that North Carolina will. It'll be Rock Chalk Championship.
Meanwhile, in the UConn Invitational, it'll take an upset of epic proportions to end Breanna Stewart's career with anything other than a fourth straight National Championship. I'm talking a "biggest upset in NCAA history" type of upset. And should UConn do it, it would put a bow on perhaps the single greatest college career any player's ever had.
As hard to believe as it may be, there are 63 other teams in the women's tournament. It would be easy to go straight chalk, especially seeing as UConn, South Carolina, Notre Dame and Baylor have separated themselves so far from everybody else this season. Except I don't think you should be writing that Women's Final Four in ink just yet. UConn and South Carolina are safe bets, but I'm not so sure about the other two.
Notre Dame has lost the National Championship Game in four of the last five years. That's their thing. But in the Elite 8, they'll have to face either a Maryland team that was in the Final Four last season or a talented Kentucky squad that'll be playing at home. Kentucky has been to the Elite 8 so many times in recent years, but always against UConn. Knowing that this is their chance to finally not have to deal with the Huskies will make Kentucky very dangerous. Especially in their home arena (even if they don't play at Rupp all the time, they still won't have to travel). I still like Maryland to beat them, but Kentucky won't go down quietly. And, for some reason, I think Maryland will beat Notre Dame, too.
Baylor will be at an advantage playing in Dallas, so I think they will go through, but don't sleep on Texas A&M or Oregon State. Or Louisville for that matter. Any one of those four teams is capable of winning two games once they all get together in Dallas. In fact, I'm going to call the upset and say Texas A&M beats Baylor in the Sweet 16, which gets Oregon State to the first Final Four in program history.
Like I said, don't just go with the chalk. My Women's Final Four is UConn, Oregon State, South Carolina and Maryland. I'm really high on Maryland. I'll say that after they beat Notre Dame, they go and beat South Carolina, too. But no one's stopping UConn.
A fourth straight National Championship, a fourth straight Final Four MVP, another undefeated season (one loss in three years). If Breanna Stewart isn't the greatest player in college basketball history, she's definitely on the short list. This tournament will be a coronation. If it's not, that'll be an even bigger story.
And now that we've got that convenient 64-team bracket without that annoying "vs. winner of..." that the First Four gives us, I can actually take a look at the whole thing and make some picks. Sports Illustrated is going with Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State, and I can't say I disagree with that. Kansas, North Carolina and Michigan State are the three best teams in the tournament, and in a West region that looks like it could be full of upsets, I like Oklahoma and Buddy Hield to come out of it.
It'll be much easier to break this down region by region, so let's start in the South where No. 1 overall seed Kansas resides. They didn't make things easy for the Jayhawks, either. But they're the most talented team in this region, which I think will be the difference. There are probably a lot of people picking UConn in the second round (the Final Four IS in Texas, and it does seem to be a rule that UConn wins the national title when the Final Four is in Texas). I also think they'll get a challenge from Cal in the Sweet 16 (after Cal beats South Dakota State, which will give us our 5-12 upset against Maryland). As for the bottom half of that region, I've got no idea. Villanova always chokes i the Tournament. In fact, I can see them losing to Iowa. Miami's not that good, either. Frankly, I can see the Arizona-Wichita State winner making it all the way to the Elite Eight.
Kansas's Final Four opponent will come out of the West, where Oregon is the top seed, yet no one seems to be picking the Ducks. In fact, there are a lot of people who have Oregon losing to Baylor in a Sweet 16 game that will test the contrast on your TV as much as that Michigan-Syracuse Final Four game a couple years ago did. Problem is, I'm not sure Baylor gets there. Getting past Yale and Duke is a very difficult proposition. If the Bears do make it to Anaheim, I agree they'd be a tough matchup for Oregon. But I'm going with Duke. Baylor reaching the Sweet 16 would also make it a Big 12 party in Anaheim. Oklahoma should be there, and Texas A&M is still an honorary Big 12 member (as much as I would love to see Texas beat them, it's not happening; neither is the Texas vs. VCU Shaka Smart Bowl). I just think Oklahoma's the most talented team in this region, and the matchups are incredibly favorable for a Sooners trip to Houston.
North Carolina is heavily favored in a loaded East. The Tar Heels' biggest challenge might come from Kentucky, which looks like the Kentucky team we normally expect to see for really the first time this season. Remember, two years ago, nobody was talking about Kentucky, and they ended up in the Championship Game as an 8-seed. Then last year they went into the Final Four undefeated and lost to Wisconsin. I don't really know if it's possible for Kentucky to be a "sleeper" Final Four pick, but there's a good number of people that wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats in Houston. If North Carolina plays the way they did in the ACC Tournament, though, they ain't losing to any of these teams. Especially if they play Notre Dame again in the Elite 8, which the bracket indicates just might happen.
I want very badly for the top two seeds in the Midwest to reach the Regional Final. Because Michigan State should've been the 1-seed over Virginia, and they're going to prove it by knocking the Cavaliers out of the Tournament for the third consecutive year. Iowa State appears to be the team most capable of preventing that matchup, but they've first got to worry about Iona in a game that could be as high-scoring as the NBA All-Star Game. I'm not sleeping on Utah, either. That's the second-best team out of a very strong Pac-12. Michigan State's the best team in this region, though.
So, I agree with Sports Illustrated. My Final Four is Kansas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State. Kansas and Oklahoma played a phenomenal double-overtime game in Lawrence when Oklahoma was ranked No. 1, and I think a Final Four meeting between the rivals would be very similar. Buddy Hield will be the best player on the floor, but Kansas will be the best team on the floor, which will be the difference. North Carolina-Michigan State is much more of a toss-up. I'd love to see this matchup, if just to see Roy Williams and Tom Izzo try to out-coach each other. If North Carolina's playing well, they're the better team. But they almost have to be perfect, and Michigan State is very good at making teams play their game. I don't think North Carolina would be an exception, so I give the slight edge to Sparty.
That gives me a National Championship Game between Kansas and Michigan State. But, like I've been saying all along, I think Kansas is the best team in the nation. They won't make the same mistakes against Michigan State that North Carolina will. It'll be Rock Chalk Championship.
Meanwhile, in the UConn Invitational, it'll take an upset of epic proportions to end Breanna Stewart's career with anything other than a fourth straight National Championship. I'm talking a "biggest upset in NCAA history" type of upset. And should UConn do it, it would put a bow on perhaps the single greatest college career any player's ever had.
As hard to believe as it may be, there are 63 other teams in the women's tournament. It would be easy to go straight chalk, especially seeing as UConn, South Carolina, Notre Dame and Baylor have separated themselves so far from everybody else this season. Except I don't think you should be writing that Women's Final Four in ink just yet. UConn and South Carolina are safe bets, but I'm not so sure about the other two.
Notre Dame has lost the National Championship Game in four of the last five years. That's their thing. But in the Elite 8, they'll have to face either a Maryland team that was in the Final Four last season or a talented Kentucky squad that'll be playing at home. Kentucky has been to the Elite 8 so many times in recent years, but always against UConn. Knowing that this is their chance to finally not have to deal with the Huskies will make Kentucky very dangerous. Especially in their home arena (even if they don't play at Rupp all the time, they still won't have to travel). I still like Maryland to beat them, but Kentucky won't go down quietly. And, for some reason, I think Maryland will beat Notre Dame, too.
Baylor will be at an advantage playing in Dallas, so I think they will go through, but don't sleep on Texas A&M or Oregon State. Or Louisville for that matter. Any one of those four teams is capable of winning two games once they all get together in Dallas. In fact, I'm going to call the upset and say Texas A&M beats Baylor in the Sweet 16, which gets Oregon State to the first Final Four in program history.
Like I said, don't just go with the chalk. My Women's Final Four is UConn, Oregon State, South Carolina and Maryland. I'm really high on Maryland. I'll say that after they beat Notre Dame, they go and beat South Carolina, too. But no one's stopping UConn.
A fourth straight National Championship, a fourth straight Final Four MVP, another undefeated season (one loss in three years). If Breanna Stewart isn't the greatest player in college basketball history, she's definitely on the short list. This tournament will be a coronation. If it's not, that'll be an even bigger story.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
What Was the Committee Thinking?
Every year, there's a great amount of backseat driving after the NCAA Tournament field is announced. Questions are asked about why certain teams made it and others didn't and why this team got this seed or was sent to play there or drew this matchup. Usually the committee chair provides reasonable answers to these questions so that, even if you don't necessarily agree with their logic, the explanations make you feel comfortable enough with the bracket that was put together.
But this year, there are way too many of those questions, and the reasons given for those questionable choices didn't really do it for me. And I'm not the only one. It goes beyond the bubble teams, too. People are never satisfied with the bubble teams that make it over those that don't. There were oddities all over the bracket.
I think, this year especially, the common consensus isn't how great a job the committee did. It's more, "What were they thinking?" A few examples of what I mean...
Syracuse and Tulsa? I'm not going to get into which bubble teams I think should've made it. San Diego State, St. Bonaventure, South Carolina, Monmouth, Saint Mary's, Valparaiso, etc., all had legitimate arguments for being the field. And I agree with the committee that all of the No. 1 seeds losing in mid-major conference tournaments didn't help matters (because it dropped all those teams onto the bubble instead of in with automatic bids). But it's hard to justify putting Syracuse and Tulsa in the tournament over any of them.
Tulsa came so far out of left field that they themselves probably thought they had no shot and were preparing for an NIT game. It's also hard to justify Tulsa's selection. They got smacked by Memphis twice, including once in the American tournament, and Memphis isn't good. The committee obviously thinks very highly of The American for some reason. Tulsa was the fourth team from the conference to get in, and ineligible SMU was the best team in that league.
As confusing as the Tulsa selection is, the Syracuse choice is downright infuriating. Because not only did they put Syracuse in the tournament, they put them directly in the field. No play-in game for them. Nope, apparently the same Syracuse team that lost to eight-win St. John's and finished ninth in the ACC was better than all of those mid-major bubble teams (more on the ACC in a minute).
There are two things that really bother me about the Syracuse selection. The first is that the committee chairman pretty much admitted that they took the fact Jim Boeheim missed nine games into account. Why? Why were they rewarded for playing nine games without their coach? Especially when he missed those games because of an NCAA-issued suspension because of violations the program committed. There are plenty of valid reasons for a coach to miss games. An NCAA suspension isn't one.
What bothers me more, though, is that they gave Syracuse credit for its strength of schedule, which is inherently unfair to non-Power 5 programs. Yes, Syracuse played North Carolina and Duke and Virginia on the road. Those were conference games! ACC teams automatically have a strong schedule because they play other ACC teams. Same thing with Big Ten teams. Same thing with Pac-12 teams. Talk about non-conference strength of schedule all you want. That's fine with me. But don't give Power 5 teams credit for playing other Power 5 teams in January and February. Those are called conference games.
Likewise, they asked him directly about Monmouth, a team that pretty much everyone agreed did everything that the committee asks of mid-majors, yet still didn't get in. He said that the overriding thing that they couldn't shake about Monmouth was three losses to the bottom-200 in the RPI. Two of those three losses were conference road games! It's a little ridiculous to expect mid-majors to go undefeated in conference play just to have a shot at an at-large.
Vanderbilt and Michigan are perfectly justified in my mind. If I had my choice of the two SEC teams, I would've gone with South Carolina, especially since Vanderbilt got crushed by Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, but I can make my peace with the Commodores. Same with Michigan. They were probably out until they beat Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament. Personally, I thought they'd need to beat Purdue, too, but apparently just beating Indiana was enough.
It wasn't limited to confusing bubble selections that were difficult to justify. There are plenty of things about the bracket itself that have resulted in significant second-guessing. Such as...
Virginia over Michigan State for the fourth No. 1 seed? Oregon getting a 1-seed is fine. They were going to the West no matter what, so it doesn't really make a difference if it was as 1 or 2. But how did Virginia get one over Michigan State? The committee clearly thinks very highly of the ACC, seeing as the team that finished second in that conference in both the regular season and tournament was deemed worthy of a No. 1 seed. Over a Michigan State team that won the Big Ten regular season and tournament and is the consensus third-best team in the field behind Kansas and North Carolina.
Most people just assumed Michigan State was going to be a 1-seed, especially after they won the Big Ten Tournament. Villanova losing their 1-seed after they lost to Seton Hall at least makes sense. But what's the reason Michigan State didn't get one? At least they put Michigan State and Virginia in the same region, where the Spartans will actually be closer to home in Chicago.
Why does the Holy Cross-Southern winner have to go all the way to Spokane? Among all the things on the bracket, this is the one I found the most perplexing. The winner of the Holy Cross-Southern First Four game has to fly to Spokane to play Oregon. Spokane is not exactly near Dayton.
They needed a Friday site. I understand that much. And Oregon is the only 1-seed with a Friday game, which made Spokane their only option. (Had Villanova beaten Seton Hall, I'm sure they would've gotten the winner in Brooklyn on Friday.) But this is definitely a problem of their own making, and it's one that's easily solved. You know how? Making Michigan State a 1-seed! Michigan State is playing in St. Louis, which is significantly closer to Dayton than Spokane. They also could've put Kansas in St. Louis instead of Des Moines (and Kansas, as the No. 1 overall seed, theoretically should play a First Four winner).
For that matter, why is Kansas in the South instead of the Midwest when Louisville and Chicago are approximately the same distance from Lawrence? Now they have Virginia making a significantly longer trip to play a virtual road game against Michigan State in the Regionals. And don't tell me they didn't move Villanova out of the East on purpose. The Regional is in Philadelphia. They were protecting North Carolina from having to play the Wildcats on what's essentially their home floor.
Some of the stuff involving seedings and who's playing where I can make my peace with much more easily. Making that bracket can't be easy, so the committee does have my utmost respect for doing that job. Except this year, they left themselves open to much more second-guessing than usual. And the answers to those questions weren't great.
But this year, there are way too many of those questions, and the reasons given for those questionable choices didn't really do it for me. And I'm not the only one. It goes beyond the bubble teams, too. People are never satisfied with the bubble teams that make it over those that don't. There were oddities all over the bracket.
I think, this year especially, the common consensus isn't how great a job the committee did. It's more, "What were they thinking?" A few examples of what I mean...
Syracuse and Tulsa? I'm not going to get into which bubble teams I think should've made it. San Diego State, St. Bonaventure, South Carolina, Monmouth, Saint Mary's, Valparaiso, etc., all had legitimate arguments for being the field. And I agree with the committee that all of the No. 1 seeds losing in mid-major conference tournaments didn't help matters (because it dropped all those teams onto the bubble instead of in with automatic bids). But it's hard to justify putting Syracuse and Tulsa in the tournament over any of them.
Tulsa came so far out of left field that they themselves probably thought they had no shot and were preparing for an NIT game. It's also hard to justify Tulsa's selection. They got smacked by Memphis twice, including once in the American tournament, and Memphis isn't good. The committee obviously thinks very highly of The American for some reason. Tulsa was the fourth team from the conference to get in, and ineligible SMU was the best team in that league.
As confusing as the Tulsa selection is, the Syracuse choice is downright infuriating. Because not only did they put Syracuse in the tournament, they put them directly in the field. No play-in game for them. Nope, apparently the same Syracuse team that lost to eight-win St. John's and finished ninth in the ACC was better than all of those mid-major bubble teams (more on the ACC in a minute).
There are two things that really bother me about the Syracuse selection. The first is that the committee chairman pretty much admitted that they took the fact Jim Boeheim missed nine games into account. Why? Why were they rewarded for playing nine games without their coach? Especially when he missed those games because of an NCAA-issued suspension because of violations the program committed. There are plenty of valid reasons for a coach to miss games. An NCAA suspension isn't one.
What bothers me more, though, is that they gave Syracuse credit for its strength of schedule, which is inherently unfair to non-Power 5 programs. Yes, Syracuse played North Carolina and Duke and Virginia on the road. Those were conference games! ACC teams automatically have a strong schedule because they play other ACC teams. Same thing with Big Ten teams. Same thing with Pac-12 teams. Talk about non-conference strength of schedule all you want. That's fine with me. But don't give Power 5 teams credit for playing other Power 5 teams in January and February. Those are called conference games.
Likewise, they asked him directly about Monmouth, a team that pretty much everyone agreed did everything that the committee asks of mid-majors, yet still didn't get in. He said that the overriding thing that they couldn't shake about Monmouth was three losses to the bottom-200 in the RPI. Two of those three losses were conference road games! It's a little ridiculous to expect mid-majors to go undefeated in conference play just to have a shot at an at-large.
Vanderbilt and Michigan are perfectly justified in my mind. If I had my choice of the two SEC teams, I would've gone with South Carolina, especially since Vanderbilt got crushed by Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, but I can make my peace with the Commodores. Same with Michigan. They were probably out until they beat Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament. Personally, I thought they'd need to beat Purdue, too, but apparently just beating Indiana was enough.
It wasn't limited to confusing bubble selections that were difficult to justify. There are plenty of things about the bracket itself that have resulted in significant second-guessing. Such as...
Virginia over Michigan State for the fourth No. 1 seed? Oregon getting a 1-seed is fine. They were going to the West no matter what, so it doesn't really make a difference if it was as 1 or 2. But how did Virginia get one over Michigan State? The committee clearly thinks very highly of the ACC, seeing as the team that finished second in that conference in both the regular season and tournament was deemed worthy of a No. 1 seed. Over a Michigan State team that won the Big Ten regular season and tournament and is the consensus third-best team in the field behind Kansas and North Carolina.
Most people just assumed Michigan State was going to be a 1-seed, especially after they won the Big Ten Tournament. Villanova losing their 1-seed after they lost to Seton Hall at least makes sense. But what's the reason Michigan State didn't get one? At least they put Michigan State and Virginia in the same region, where the Spartans will actually be closer to home in Chicago.
Why does the Holy Cross-Southern winner have to go all the way to Spokane? Among all the things on the bracket, this is the one I found the most perplexing. The winner of the Holy Cross-Southern First Four game has to fly to Spokane to play Oregon. Spokane is not exactly near Dayton.
They needed a Friday site. I understand that much. And Oregon is the only 1-seed with a Friday game, which made Spokane their only option. (Had Villanova beaten Seton Hall, I'm sure they would've gotten the winner in Brooklyn on Friday.) But this is definitely a problem of their own making, and it's one that's easily solved. You know how? Making Michigan State a 1-seed! Michigan State is playing in St. Louis, which is significantly closer to Dayton than Spokane. They also could've put Kansas in St. Louis instead of Des Moines (and Kansas, as the No. 1 overall seed, theoretically should play a First Four winner).
For that matter, why is Kansas in the South instead of the Midwest when Louisville and Chicago are approximately the same distance from Lawrence? Now they have Virginia making a significantly longer trip to play a virtual road game against Michigan State in the Regionals. And don't tell me they didn't move Villanova out of the East on purpose. The Regional is in Philadelphia. They were protecting North Carolina from having to play the Wildcats on what's essentially their home floor.
Some of the stuff involving seedings and who's playing where I can make my peace with much more easily. Making that bracket can't be easy, so the committee does have my utmost respect for doing that job. Except this year, they left themselves open to much more second-guessing than usual. And the answers to those questions weren't great.
Sunday, March 13, 2016
Joe's Bracket (Women)
Unlike the men's tournament, the four top seeds on the women's side have been pretty clear for a while now. UConn, Notre Dame, South Carolina and Baylor have three losses between them (and the losses for Notre Dame and South Carolina were to UConn). So, the only real question is whether somebody else can crash the Women's Final Four.
Well, that and if Breanna Stewart will truly go down as the greatest player in the history of women's college basketball. Before she becomes the No. 1 pick in the WNBA Draft by the Storm and wins an Olympic gold with Team USA in Rio, she'll go for another undefeated season, her fourth straight national title, and her fourth straight Final Four Most Outstanding Player. If that all does happen, I don't see how you can make an argument that any player had a better college career than Stewart.
Of course, it's not a foregone conclusion that UConn will win the national title, even if it seems like that. When Brittany Griner was a senior, Baylor was the defending champions and the clear No. 1 overall team...and instead of a coronation, Baylor was upset in the Sweet 16 by Shoni Schimmel and Louisville. While this UConn team is much better than that Baylor squad, and there isn't a team in the country that's on their level, the image of Griner walking off the court after that Louisville game is still there in my head. I don't want to see Breanna Stewart end her college career the same way.
As for everybody else, a lot of people have been talking about Tennessee and whether or not the Lady Vols will even make the tournament. Tennessee has played in every NCAA Tournament, and I fully expect that streak to continue. They've absolutely struggled by Tennessee standards this season, even dropping out of the Top 25 at one point, but are they one of the 32 best available at-large teams? Yes they are. Will Tennessee contend for the national title? Probably not. Will they be in the tournament? Absolutely.
With all that out of the way, it really comes down to figuring out what order the other three No. 1 seeds go in. Baylor's the one that lost to somebody other than UConn, so they're No. 4 overall and get the Huskies in the Final Four. That leaves Notre Dame and South Carolina. The order doesn't really matter, since they'd face each other before one has to face UConn again, but I'm making UConn No. 2 and South Carolina No. 3.
Which leaves us with a bracket that looks something like this...
BRIDGEPORT
Storrs: 16-Robert Morris at 1-Connecticut, 8-Seton Hall vs. 9-Duquesne
Tallahassee: 13-Chattanooga at 4-Florida State, 5-DePaul vs. 12-Florida Gulf Coast
Lexington: 14-Troy at 3-Kentucky, 6-Arizona State vs. 11-Iowa
College Park: 15-Buffalo at 2-Maryland, 7-Georgia vs. 10-Kansas State
DALLAS
Waco: 16-Idaho at 1-Baylor, 8-Washington vs. 9-Vanderbilt
College Station: 13-Albany at 4-Texas A&M, 5-Oklahoma State vs. 12-Army West Point
Coral Gables: 14-South Dakota State at 3-Miami, 6-Florida vs. 11-Indiana
Corvallis: 15-Central Arkansas at 2-Oregon State, 7-BYU vs. 10-Colorado State
LEXINGTON
Notre Dame: 16-Alabama State at 1-Notre Dame, 8-George Washington vs. 9-Missouri
Stanford: 13-Hawaii at 4-Stanford, 5-Mississippi State vs. 12-Green Bay
Columbus: 14-Liberty at 3-Ohio State, 6-Tennessee vs. 11-Middle Tennessee
Austin: 15-Iona at 2-Texas, 7-St. John's vs. 10-James Madison
SIOUX FALLS
Columbia: 16-North Carolina A&T at 1-South Carolina, 8-South Florida vs. 9-NC State
East Lansing: 13-Northern Iowa at 4-Michigan State, 5-Syracuse vs. 12-Penn
Los Angeles: 14-New Mexico State at 3-UCLA, 6-West Virginia vs. 11-San Francisco
Louisville: 15-Belmont at 2-Louisville, 7-Oklahoma vs. 10-Purdue
Well, that and if Breanna Stewart will truly go down as the greatest player in the history of women's college basketball. Before she becomes the No. 1 pick in the WNBA Draft by the Storm and wins an Olympic gold with Team USA in Rio, she'll go for another undefeated season, her fourth straight national title, and her fourth straight Final Four Most Outstanding Player. If that all does happen, I don't see how you can make an argument that any player had a better college career than Stewart.
Of course, it's not a foregone conclusion that UConn will win the national title, even if it seems like that. When Brittany Griner was a senior, Baylor was the defending champions and the clear No. 1 overall team...and instead of a coronation, Baylor was upset in the Sweet 16 by Shoni Schimmel and Louisville. While this UConn team is much better than that Baylor squad, and there isn't a team in the country that's on their level, the image of Griner walking off the court after that Louisville game is still there in my head. I don't want to see Breanna Stewart end her college career the same way.
As for everybody else, a lot of people have been talking about Tennessee and whether or not the Lady Vols will even make the tournament. Tennessee has played in every NCAA Tournament, and I fully expect that streak to continue. They've absolutely struggled by Tennessee standards this season, even dropping out of the Top 25 at one point, but are they one of the 32 best available at-large teams? Yes they are. Will Tennessee contend for the national title? Probably not. Will they be in the tournament? Absolutely.
With all that out of the way, it really comes down to figuring out what order the other three No. 1 seeds go in. Baylor's the one that lost to somebody other than UConn, so they're No. 4 overall and get the Huskies in the Final Four. That leaves Notre Dame and South Carolina. The order doesn't really matter, since they'd face each other before one has to face UConn again, but I'm making UConn No. 2 and South Carolina No. 3.
Which leaves us with a bracket that looks something like this...
BRIDGEPORT
Storrs: 16-Robert Morris at 1-Connecticut, 8-Seton Hall vs. 9-Duquesne
Tallahassee: 13-Chattanooga at 4-Florida State, 5-DePaul vs. 12-Florida Gulf Coast
Lexington: 14-Troy at 3-Kentucky, 6-Arizona State vs. 11-Iowa
College Park: 15-Buffalo at 2-Maryland, 7-Georgia vs. 10-Kansas State
DALLAS
Waco: 16-Idaho at 1-Baylor, 8-Washington vs. 9-Vanderbilt
College Station: 13-Albany at 4-Texas A&M, 5-Oklahoma State vs. 12-Army West Point
Coral Gables: 14-South Dakota State at 3-Miami, 6-Florida vs. 11-Indiana
Corvallis: 15-Central Arkansas at 2-Oregon State, 7-BYU vs. 10-Colorado State
LEXINGTON
Notre Dame: 16-Alabama State at 1-Notre Dame, 8-George Washington vs. 9-Missouri
Stanford: 13-Hawaii at 4-Stanford, 5-Mississippi State vs. 12-Green Bay
Columbus: 14-Liberty at 3-Ohio State, 6-Tennessee vs. 11-Middle Tennessee
Austin: 15-Iona at 2-Texas, 7-St. John's vs. 10-James Madison
SIOUX FALLS
Columbia: 16-North Carolina A&T at 1-South Carolina, 8-South Florida vs. 9-NC State
East Lansing: 13-Northern Iowa at 4-Michigan State, 5-Syracuse vs. 12-Penn
Los Angeles: 14-New Mexico State at 3-UCLA, 6-West Virginia vs. 11-San Francisco
Louisville: 15-Belmont at 2-Louisville, 7-Oklahoma vs. 10-Purdue
Saturday, March 12, 2016
Joe's Bracket (Men)
It's been an interesting year in college basketball. About 75 teams have valid arguments for being included in the field of 68, and no one can even agree who the four No. 1 seeds are (well, people agree on Kansas and Villanova, but not the other two). All I know is that we're in for a great NCAA Tournament. There are going to be plenty of upsets, and I don't even know who'll be considered the "favorite." I am pretty sure, though, that Kansas will be the No. 1 overall seed should they win the Big 12 Championship Game.
There are still a couple days to go, so bubble teams in the BCS conferences can still play their way in or out, while Monmouth and Saint Mary's have to just sit there and wait. Louisville and SMU being ineligible for the tournament certainly helps their cause, though. Both of them would've been in, so that's two spots now available that otherwise wouldn't have been.
Regarding Monmouth, Jay Bilas made a great point during the MAAC Championship Game. Yes, they have some "bad" losses, but those came in conference road games. But they also have a bunch of good wins over high-profile opponents, virtually all of which came on the road (because nobody wanted to play them at their arena). They've done everything the Committee tells a mid-major they need to do in order to get an at-large bid. If they don't get in, what kind of a message does that send?
So, yes, Monmouth is in my field. So is UConn after that phenomenal four-overtime win over Cincinnati. So is Michigan, which wasn't even on anybody's radar, but has played its way in. As for my remaining two 1-seeds. North Carolina is better than Virginia. They'll prove it in the ACC Championship Game. And I don't know why nobody has Michigan State on the 1-line. They're the second-best team in the country behind Kansas.
Now that the stage is set, it's time for me to reveal my bracket. My 1-seeds, in order, are Kansas (Midwest), North Carolina (South), Villanova (East) and Michigan State (West), which means my Final Four matchups are Midwest vs. West and South vs. East. (I took a guess on who I think will win the conference tournaments that are still going on in one-bid leagues.)
MIDWEST (Chicago)
Des Moines: (1) Kansas vs. (16) Austin Peay/Holy Cross; (8) Colorado vs. (9) Wichita State
Oklahoma City: (4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Stephen F. Austin; (5) Purdue vs. (12) Arkansas-Little Rock
Brooklyn: (3) Miami vs. (14) Old Dominion; (6) Baylor vs. (11) Oregon State
St. Louis: (7) Wisconsin vs. (10) Saint Joseph's; (2) Xavier vs. (15) Stony Brook
WEST (Anaheim)
St. Louis: (1) Michigan State vs. (16) Hampton; (8) Providence vs. (9) Texas Tech
Denver: (4) Duke vs. (13) Green Bay; (5) Arizona vs. (12) San Diego State
Providence: (3) West Virginia vs. (14) Iona; (6) Dayton vs. (11) Pittsburgh/Michigan
Spokane: (7) Texas vs. (10) Butler; (2) Oregon vs. (15) New Mexico State
SOUTH (Louisville)
Raleigh: (1) North Carolina vs. (16) Florida Gulf Coast; (8) VCU vs. (9) Cincinnati
Providence: (4) Maryland vs. (13) Yale; (5) California vs. (12) South Dakota State
Des Moines: (3) Kentucky vs. (14) UNC Wilmington; (6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Monmouth/Saint Mary's
Oklahoma City: (7) Seton Hall vs. (10) Connecticut; (2) Oklahoma vs. (15) Montana
EAST (Philadelphia)
Brooklyn: (1) Villanova vs. (16) Jackson State/Fairleigh Dickinson; (8) South Carolina vs. (9) USC
Spokane: (4) Iowa State vs. (13) Chattanooga; (5) Indiana vs. (12) Akron
Denver: (3) Utah vs. (14) Hawaii; (6) Iowa vs. (11) Northern Iowa
Raleigh: (7) Temple vs. (10) Gonzaga; (2) Virginia vs. (15) UNC Asheville
There are still a couple days to go, so bubble teams in the BCS conferences can still play their way in or out, while Monmouth and Saint Mary's have to just sit there and wait. Louisville and SMU being ineligible for the tournament certainly helps their cause, though. Both of them would've been in, so that's two spots now available that otherwise wouldn't have been.
Regarding Monmouth, Jay Bilas made a great point during the MAAC Championship Game. Yes, they have some "bad" losses, but those came in conference road games. But they also have a bunch of good wins over high-profile opponents, virtually all of which came on the road (because nobody wanted to play them at their arena). They've done everything the Committee tells a mid-major they need to do in order to get an at-large bid. If they don't get in, what kind of a message does that send?
So, yes, Monmouth is in my field. So is UConn after that phenomenal four-overtime win over Cincinnati. So is Michigan, which wasn't even on anybody's radar, but has played its way in. As for my remaining two 1-seeds. North Carolina is better than Virginia. They'll prove it in the ACC Championship Game. And I don't know why nobody has Michigan State on the 1-line. They're the second-best team in the country behind Kansas.
Now that the stage is set, it's time for me to reveal my bracket. My 1-seeds, in order, are Kansas (Midwest), North Carolina (South), Villanova (East) and Michigan State (West), which means my Final Four matchups are Midwest vs. West and South vs. East. (I took a guess on who I think will win the conference tournaments that are still going on in one-bid leagues.)
MIDWEST (Chicago)
Des Moines: (1) Kansas vs. (16) Austin Peay/Holy Cross; (8) Colorado vs. (9) Wichita State
Oklahoma City: (4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Stephen F. Austin; (5) Purdue vs. (12) Arkansas-Little Rock
Brooklyn: (3) Miami vs. (14) Old Dominion; (6) Baylor vs. (11) Oregon State
St. Louis: (7) Wisconsin vs. (10) Saint Joseph's; (2) Xavier vs. (15) Stony Brook
WEST (Anaheim)
St. Louis: (1) Michigan State vs. (16) Hampton; (8) Providence vs. (9) Texas Tech
Denver: (4) Duke vs. (13) Green Bay; (5) Arizona vs. (12) San Diego State
Providence: (3) West Virginia vs. (14) Iona; (6) Dayton vs. (11) Pittsburgh/Michigan
Spokane: (7) Texas vs. (10) Butler; (2) Oregon vs. (15) New Mexico State
SOUTH (Louisville)
Raleigh: (1) North Carolina vs. (16) Florida Gulf Coast; (8) VCU vs. (9) Cincinnati
Providence: (4) Maryland vs. (13) Yale; (5) California vs. (12) South Dakota State
Des Moines: (3) Kentucky vs. (14) UNC Wilmington; (6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Monmouth/Saint Mary's
Oklahoma City: (7) Seton Hall vs. (10) Connecticut; (2) Oklahoma vs. (15) Montana
EAST (Philadelphia)
Brooklyn: (1) Villanova vs. (16) Jackson State/Fairleigh Dickinson; (8) South Carolina vs. (9) USC
Spokane: (4) Iowa State vs. (13) Chattanooga; (5) Indiana vs. (12) Akron
Denver: (3) Utah vs. (14) Hawaii; (6) Iowa vs. (11) Northern Iowa
Raleigh: (7) Temple vs. (10) Gonzaga; (2) Virginia vs. (15) UNC Asheville
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
Lamenting the Big East Gone By
One of my earliest sports memories is from when I was seven years old. My dad got tickets to the championship game of the 1990 Big East Tournament from his boss, so we hopped on the train to watch UConn-Syracuse. The game was played on the afternoon of Selection Sunday then, and we were up in the nosebleed seats in The Garden, the ones that were that ugly purple color until the renovations. I was rooting for Syracuse, but UConn won the game (and its first Big East championship). I've been a Huskies fan ever since.
Fast forward four years. My sister is a freshman at Providence, and the Friars pull off an upset of UConn in the semifinals. We go as a family to the title game and sit in the Providence student section, about 15 rows from the court. After Providence wins (its only Big East title before the realignment), we join in the celebration with the rest of the students.
The Big East has always been my favorite conference, and the Big East Tournament has always been my favorite. I haven't attended it in person since 1994, but I always get excited around Big East Tournament time. There's just something about it that feels right. From The Garden to the tradition to the rivalries to the classic games, it has always been the perfect conference tournament in my eyes.
There's no denying that the Big East Tournament, like the conference itself, isn't what it once was. We can thank Boston College, Syracuse and all the others for that. It definitely didn't feel right to watch a Syracuse-Pitt conference tournament game this afternoon that was played somewhere other than Madison Square Garden. It's still tough to wrap my head around the fact that those two schools are in the ACC now.
I can't help but miss those days. It's just not the same with Syracuse and UConn and Notre Dame and, to a lesser extent, Louisville, missing. After the Big East expanded to 16 teams, they had four games a day for three straight days before the semifinals on Friday night and that Saturday night championship game.
No offense to Creighton, Butler and Xavier, but they're not the first names you think of when you think of the Big East. You think of the six-overtime game between UConn and Syracuse. You think of that epic 1996 tournament, which might've been the best conference tournament in any conference in history. You think of Gerry McNamara and Kemba Walker single-handedly winning championships (and in Kemba's case, single-handedly winning the NCAA title, too). But, most of all, you think of Madison Square Garden.
When the Big East and American split into two conferences, there were two things the Big East wanted to keep. The name and The Garden. They got to keep both. And they should've. Because a Big East Tournament without Syracuse and Boston College is bad enough. But seeing Georgetown play Villanova somewhere else, while East Carolina faced Central Florida at The Garden would've been something different entirely. The Big East belongs at Madison Square Garden. The tournament being played somewhere else seems wrong on so many levels. And as bad as it is that UConn isn't part of the fun anymore, that's better than the alternative.
So, even though we're in year three since the conference was gutted and split in two, this "new" Big East has still taken some getting used to. But, you know what? It's still the Big East. And it's still the Big East Tournament. And it's still special. And I still get amped up for it. How could I not? Conference tournament time is one of the best weeks of the year.
Fast forward four years. My sister is a freshman at Providence, and the Friars pull off an upset of UConn in the semifinals. We go as a family to the title game and sit in the Providence student section, about 15 rows from the court. After Providence wins (its only Big East title before the realignment), we join in the celebration with the rest of the students.
The Big East has always been my favorite conference, and the Big East Tournament has always been my favorite. I haven't attended it in person since 1994, but I always get excited around Big East Tournament time. There's just something about it that feels right. From The Garden to the tradition to the rivalries to the classic games, it has always been the perfect conference tournament in my eyes.
There's no denying that the Big East Tournament, like the conference itself, isn't what it once was. We can thank Boston College, Syracuse and all the others for that. It definitely didn't feel right to watch a Syracuse-Pitt conference tournament game this afternoon that was played somewhere other than Madison Square Garden. It's still tough to wrap my head around the fact that those two schools are in the ACC now.
I can't help but miss those days. It's just not the same with Syracuse and UConn and Notre Dame and, to a lesser extent, Louisville, missing. After the Big East expanded to 16 teams, they had four games a day for three straight days before the semifinals on Friday night and that Saturday night championship game.
No offense to Creighton, Butler and Xavier, but they're not the first names you think of when you think of the Big East. You think of the six-overtime game between UConn and Syracuse. You think of that epic 1996 tournament, which might've been the best conference tournament in any conference in history. You think of Gerry McNamara and Kemba Walker single-handedly winning championships (and in Kemba's case, single-handedly winning the NCAA title, too). But, most of all, you think of Madison Square Garden.
When the Big East and American split into two conferences, there were two things the Big East wanted to keep. The name and The Garden. They got to keep both. And they should've. Because a Big East Tournament without Syracuse and Boston College is bad enough. But seeing Georgetown play Villanova somewhere else, while East Carolina faced Central Florida at The Garden would've been something different entirely. The Big East belongs at Madison Square Garden. The tournament being played somewhere else seems wrong on so many levels. And as bad as it is that UConn isn't part of the fun anymore, that's better than the alternative.
So, even though we're in year three since the conference was gutted and split in two, this "new" Big East has still taken some getting used to. But, you know what? It's still the Big East. And it's still the Big East Tournament. And it's still special. And I still get amped up for it. How could I not? Conference tournament time is one of the best weeks of the year.
Monday, March 7, 2016
Sharapova's Surprise Announcement
So...it turns out Peyton Manning wasn't the only one who had a press conference today. Maria Sharapova had some news of her own. She failed a drug test during the Australian Open and now faces a suspension from tennis. For how long? Who knows?
According to Sharapova's explanation, she failed the test because of meldonium, a drug she's been taking since 2006 but was only added to the banned list in January. She takes it for a number of health issues, and she made sure it was legal when she began taking it. Sharapova continued to check every year, and every year it was legal. Until this year. Apparently she received an email with the updates to the list in December and didn't notice that it had been added.
Meldonium was banned because, when taken in high doses, it can improve blood-flow and increase endurance. Not surprisingly, many of the athletes who've been suspended for using meldonium since Jan. 1 are long-distance runners, cyclists or biathletes. The dosage Sharapova was taking was much lower, so you can argue the performance-enhancing benefits. But, a rule's a rule, and it's banned no matter the dosage. As a result, Sharapova will be suspended.
To her credit, Sharapova took full responsibility for everything. Whether you believe she simply made an honest mistake (which I do) or think she knew exactly what she was doing and was trying to get away with it is up to you. But I don't think she has anything to hide here. She knows how much she stands to lose, which is probably why she was so forthright about it. Maria Sharapova isn't just the richest female athlete in the world (due mainly to her other business ventures and endorsements), she's also the biggest draw in women's tennis not named Serena Williams. If she's guilty of anything other than a simple mistake, that's all gone. Her career will be tainted and she'll be forever labeled a cheat, which I don't think she is.
I'm sure there are plenty of skeptics who've been following what's going on with the Russian track team (which is currently banned from international competition) and assume that Sharapova's guilty of more simply because she's Russian and took a drug that's made in Latvia. But, in response to that, I feel the need to point out that Sharapova may have a Russian passport, but has lived in the U.S. for years and currently calls LA home. She doesn't live and train in Russia. She's not a "cheater" to the same degree as those track & field dopes. Not by a long shot.
We'll see if the ITF and WTA believe her version. The rules call for a four-year ban if it was taken deliberately for the purpose of performance enhancement, while the penalty tops out at two years if it was deemed unintentional. Two years would fall in line with the common suspension we see for PED use in other sports. But...there's also a provision that says a ban can be further reduced (or even dropped entirely) if there are mitigating circumstances, which Sharapova's lawyers believe there are here.
It's highly unlikely that Sharapova will get off without a suspension of some length. She's guilty. She's admitted that much. It's the degree of her guilt (and the intent is a key here) that's still to be determined, and that's what will determine the length of her suspension. My guess is that they'll find her explanation plausible and give her anywhere from six months to a year, effectively ending her 2016 season.
Sharapova won't go to Rio (that whole thing about her needing to play Fed Cup to be on the Olympic team is irrelevant now). She won't play in any of the remaining three Grand Slams. Her ranking will take a massive hit. She won't get any prize money or appearance fees. She'll probably lose some sponsors. Those are all reasonable consequences.
What I do know, though, is that we haven't seen the last of Maria Sharapova on a tennis court. She wanted to make it perfectly clear that she isn't retiring. Sure she's 28, but Serena Williams is 33 and she's the best player in the world. Maria Sharapova will come back. And she'll have something to prove. Because there are suddenly a lot of doubters out there wondering if her career is legitimate.
Yes, it's shocking. Yes, it's her fault. But let's not rush to make Maria Sharapova the villain in all this, either. She made a mistake. And she's going to pay dearly for it, Shouldn't that be enough?
According to Sharapova's explanation, she failed the test because of meldonium, a drug she's been taking since 2006 but was only added to the banned list in January. She takes it for a number of health issues, and she made sure it was legal when she began taking it. Sharapova continued to check every year, and every year it was legal. Until this year. Apparently she received an email with the updates to the list in December and didn't notice that it had been added.
Meldonium was banned because, when taken in high doses, it can improve blood-flow and increase endurance. Not surprisingly, many of the athletes who've been suspended for using meldonium since Jan. 1 are long-distance runners, cyclists or biathletes. The dosage Sharapova was taking was much lower, so you can argue the performance-enhancing benefits. But, a rule's a rule, and it's banned no matter the dosage. As a result, Sharapova will be suspended.
To her credit, Sharapova took full responsibility for everything. Whether you believe she simply made an honest mistake (which I do) or think she knew exactly what she was doing and was trying to get away with it is up to you. But I don't think she has anything to hide here. She knows how much she stands to lose, which is probably why she was so forthright about it. Maria Sharapova isn't just the richest female athlete in the world (due mainly to her other business ventures and endorsements), she's also the biggest draw in women's tennis not named Serena Williams. If she's guilty of anything other than a simple mistake, that's all gone. Her career will be tainted and she'll be forever labeled a cheat, which I don't think she is.
I'm sure there are plenty of skeptics who've been following what's going on with the Russian track team (which is currently banned from international competition) and assume that Sharapova's guilty of more simply because she's Russian and took a drug that's made in Latvia. But, in response to that, I feel the need to point out that Sharapova may have a Russian passport, but has lived in the U.S. for years and currently calls LA home. She doesn't live and train in Russia. She's not a "cheater" to the same degree as those track & field dopes. Not by a long shot.
We'll see if the ITF and WTA believe her version. The rules call for a four-year ban if it was taken deliberately for the purpose of performance enhancement, while the penalty tops out at two years if it was deemed unintentional. Two years would fall in line with the common suspension we see for PED use in other sports. But...there's also a provision that says a ban can be further reduced (or even dropped entirely) if there are mitigating circumstances, which Sharapova's lawyers believe there are here.
It's highly unlikely that Sharapova will get off without a suspension of some length. She's guilty. She's admitted that much. It's the degree of her guilt (and the intent is a key here) that's still to be determined, and that's what will determine the length of her suspension. My guess is that they'll find her explanation plausible and give her anywhere from six months to a year, effectively ending her 2016 season.
Sharapova won't go to Rio (that whole thing about her needing to play Fed Cup to be on the Olympic team is irrelevant now). She won't play in any of the remaining three Grand Slams. Her ranking will take a massive hit. She won't get any prize money or appearance fees. She'll probably lose some sponsors. Those are all reasonable consequences.
What I do know, though, is that we haven't seen the last of Maria Sharapova on a tennis court. She wanted to make it perfectly clear that she isn't retiring. Sure she's 28, but Serena Williams is 33 and she's the best player in the world. Maria Sharapova will come back. And she'll have something to prove. Because there are suddenly a lot of doubters out there wondering if her career is legitimate.
Yes, it's shocking. Yes, it's her fault. But let's not rush to make Maria Sharapova the villain in all this, either. She made a mistake. And she's going to pay dearly for it, Shouldn't that be enough?
Sunday, March 6, 2016
The Sheriff Rides Off Into the Sunset
After 18 years in the NFL, No. 18 is going to hang 'em up. On Monday, Peyton Manning will make it official. He's retiring. We all suspected this was going to happen, so it's not actually a surprise to anyone, but this is a sad day nonetheless. We've seen one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history walk off the field for the last time. And he went out as a champion.
There's no arguing Peyton's place among the NFL's all-time greats. He's won more games than anybody, been named MVP more times than anybody, thrown more touchdown passes than anybody and thrown for more yards than anybody. He was drafted No. 1 overall and immediately turned the Indianapolis Colts from a laughingstock into a perennial contender. Then, when the Colts fired him after his neck surgery, he signed with Denver and had a historic season. And, of course, he had the perfect ending. He was a shell of his former self, but who cares? The Broncos won the Super Bowl, which was the very reason they brought Peyton to Denver.
It's, of course, the great irony of his career that he won a Super Bowl in his final season in a very un-Peyton Manning-like manner. Throughout most of the 2016 season, he was bad. In fact, you could argue he was a liability. He got hurt. He got benched. Many people thought that was it. Then he came off the bench in Week 17 and the Broncos won to clinch home field. Then he had one great drive to beat the Steelers. Then he won his final battle against Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game. Then he turned into a game manager, as the Broncos defense won him a second Super Bowl ring.
For all his greatness over 18 years, Peyton was downright average in Super Bowl 50. He was the best quarterback on the field a month ago, but that's not exactly saying much. But, you know what? He doesn't care one bit. Because the end result was a Super Bowl championship, one that cemented his legacy.
Legacy. It's a funny thing. Winning Super Bowl 50 didn't make Peyton Manning one of the best quarterbacks ever. He'd already won a Super Bowl nine years earlier, and was named MVP of that game. But in each of his next two Super Bowl trips, he lost. And 2-2 looks a lot better than 1-3, even though 1 is still more than Hall of Famers Dan Marino, Fran Tarkenton and Jim Kelly combined.
Peyton's "problem" is that he was always compared to Tom Brady, who's been to six Super Bowls, won four, and been Super Bowl MVP three times. Peyton's teams always won in the regular season, but it was Brady that had the rings. And to most people, that's all that counted. It's ridiculous, but that's the way people think. There's no way to compare them. It's like trying to argue Roger Federer is better than Rafael Nadal or vice versa. It doesn't matter. They're both great.
Perhaps more than anything else, the Manning-Brady rivalry will truly be what defines both of their legacies. For 15 years, we were treated to head-to-head duels by two of the greatest of their generation. Their teams met 17 times, and the stakes were usually high. Brady and the Patriots went 11-6 in those games, but Manning's Colts/Broncos beat New England in the AFC Championship Game three times, including twice in the last three years.
That's what I'm going to miss the most. Not the brilliant field general. Not those beautiful touchdown passes to Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark and all the others. Not the no-huddle, call-the-play-at-the-line-of-scrimmage. Not "Omaha, Omaha." No. It's Manning-Brady that I'm gonna miss. Broncos-Patriots won't have quite the same cache anymore (I think you can eliminate that one as a possibility for the NFL Kickoff game).
As a Peyton Manning fan, I'm sad I'll never see my favorite quarterback on the field again. But I know he's going to do great at whatever path he chooses next, with coaching and broadcasting seeming to be the most likely candidates. And we'll still see him on TV 35 times a day in Papa John's and Nationwide commercials.
But I also owe him a debt of gratitude. Peyton Manning was great for so many years. He lifted the NFL to new heights, and the league was better for it. Fans in Indianapolis can thank Peyton Manning for turning their team into a contender and getting a new stadium built. Fans in Denver can thank him for choosing to end his career with the Broncos, an outstanding four-year run that included two AFC Championships and a Super Bowl title.
Jim Irsay said Peyton "should" retire a Colt. But Peyton doesn't owe Irsay anything. Instead, the Sheriff rides off into the sunset on a different breed of white horse.
He'll be missed, but his impact on the NFL will never be forgotten. There have been some big names to retire over the past month (Charles Woodson, Calvin Johnson, Jared Allen, Marshawn Lynch). Out of all those legends, though, there's one who's certain to be on the stage in Canton in August 2021. And you can bet all of Indianapolis (as well as plenty of folks from Denver, too) will be there.
There's no arguing Peyton's place among the NFL's all-time greats. He's won more games than anybody, been named MVP more times than anybody, thrown more touchdown passes than anybody and thrown for more yards than anybody. He was drafted No. 1 overall and immediately turned the Indianapolis Colts from a laughingstock into a perennial contender. Then, when the Colts fired him after his neck surgery, he signed with Denver and had a historic season. And, of course, he had the perfect ending. He was a shell of his former self, but who cares? The Broncos won the Super Bowl, which was the very reason they brought Peyton to Denver.
It's, of course, the great irony of his career that he won a Super Bowl in his final season in a very un-Peyton Manning-like manner. Throughout most of the 2016 season, he was bad. In fact, you could argue he was a liability. He got hurt. He got benched. Many people thought that was it. Then he came off the bench in Week 17 and the Broncos won to clinch home field. Then he had one great drive to beat the Steelers. Then he won his final battle against Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game. Then he turned into a game manager, as the Broncos defense won him a second Super Bowl ring.
For all his greatness over 18 years, Peyton was downright average in Super Bowl 50. He was the best quarterback on the field a month ago, but that's not exactly saying much. But, you know what? He doesn't care one bit. Because the end result was a Super Bowl championship, one that cemented his legacy.
Legacy. It's a funny thing. Winning Super Bowl 50 didn't make Peyton Manning one of the best quarterbacks ever. He'd already won a Super Bowl nine years earlier, and was named MVP of that game. But in each of his next two Super Bowl trips, he lost. And 2-2 looks a lot better than 1-3, even though 1 is still more than Hall of Famers Dan Marino, Fran Tarkenton and Jim Kelly combined.
Peyton's "problem" is that he was always compared to Tom Brady, who's been to six Super Bowls, won four, and been Super Bowl MVP three times. Peyton's teams always won in the regular season, but it was Brady that had the rings. And to most people, that's all that counted. It's ridiculous, but that's the way people think. There's no way to compare them. It's like trying to argue Roger Federer is better than Rafael Nadal or vice versa. It doesn't matter. They're both great.
Perhaps more than anything else, the Manning-Brady rivalry will truly be what defines both of their legacies. For 15 years, we were treated to head-to-head duels by two of the greatest of their generation. Their teams met 17 times, and the stakes were usually high. Brady and the Patriots went 11-6 in those games, but Manning's Colts/Broncos beat New England in the AFC Championship Game three times, including twice in the last three years.
That's what I'm going to miss the most. Not the brilliant field general. Not those beautiful touchdown passes to Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark and all the others. Not the no-huddle, call-the-play-at-the-line-of-scrimmage. Not "Omaha, Omaha." No. It's Manning-Brady that I'm gonna miss. Broncos-Patriots won't have quite the same cache anymore (I think you can eliminate that one as a possibility for the NFL Kickoff game).
As a Peyton Manning fan, I'm sad I'll never see my favorite quarterback on the field again. But I know he's going to do great at whatever path he chooses next, with coaching and broadcasting seeming to be the most likely candidates. And we'll still see him on TV 35 times a day in Papa John's and Nationwide commercials.
But I also owe him a debt of gratitude. Peyton Manning was great for so many years. He lifted the NFL to new heights, and the league was better for it. Fans in Indianapolis can thank Peyton Manning for turning their team into a contender and getting a new stadium built. Fans in Denver can thank him for choosing to end his career with the Broncos, an outstanding four-year run that included two AFC Championships and a Super Bowl title.
Jim Irsay said Peyton "should" retire a Colt. But Peyton doesn't owe Irsay anything. Instead, the Sheriff rides off into the sunset on a different breed of white horse.
He'll be missed, but his impact on the NFL will never be forgotten. There have been some big names to retire over the past month (Charles Woodson, Calvin Johnson, Jared Allen, Marshawn Lynch). Out of all those legends, though, there's one who's certain to be on the stage in Canton in August 2021. And you can bet all of Indianapolis (as well as plenty of folks from Denver, too) will be there.
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