Summer of Soccer Starts

Next week, the soccer bonanza that is the simultaneous Euro and Copa America will be in full swing.  The Euro has eight more teams and two more groups, though, so they get underway first.  A mere two weeks after the Champions League Final, Europe's best players are now representing their national teams in the biggest tournament outside the World Cup.

Unlike the last Euro, which was spread around the continent to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the tournament, this one is back to the traditional format of one host country.  It's being played in Germany, which you would figure has to be an advantage for the hosts, especially after their disappointing World Cup performance.  The Euro is always an interesting test because you have teams coming off the World Cup looking to either back up a strong showing or improve on a disappointing finish.  Then there are the teams that didn't even make the World Cup, yet somehow dominate the Euro (cough *Italy* cough).

That's really what I'm most interested to see.  France is the best team in Europe, but there are eight UEFA teams in the Top 10 of the FIFA World Rankings, so can they really be considered the "favorites?"  On paper, probably, but they're in the same group as the Netherlands, who I can also see making a deep run.  That's the thing about the Euro.  There are so many good teams that it's a battle just to get out of the group.

And let's not forget the fact that four third-place finishers advance to the knockout stage.  Portugal looked horrendous in the group stage eight years ago, advanced to the knockout stage anyway as one of the best third-place finishers, and ended up winning the tournament after getting a more favorable draw.  Will something like that end up happening again?

They also did the draw based on how the teams did in qualifying instead of their world ranking.  I like that they put the emphasis on their qualifying finish and made placing at the top of your group worthwhile.  It did lead to some of the stronger teams ranked lower on the qualifying list, though.  Which, in turn, meant there's more than one challenging group.

Group A: Germany, Switzerland, Scotland, Hungary
Germany should take full advantage of its automatic home team placement in Group A.  Because they ended up with the weakest group on paper.  The Germans are ranked 16th in the world and 10th in UEFA, which is actually the highest ranking among the four teams in this group.  If anyone's going to challenge them for the top spot, it'll probably be Switzerland, while I think Scotland edges Hungary for the third spot.

Group B: Spain, Croatia, Italy, Albania
Every tournament has its "Group of Death," and this is certainly it for Euro 2024.  Whereas No. 16 Germany is the highest-ranked team in Group A, Group B has three Top 10 teams.  Which is terrible news for Albania, which stands little to no chance against these three powerhouses.  It's really a coin flip as to the order of finish between Spain, Croatia and Italy, but they'll all advance to the knockout stage regardless, so it really doesn't make a whole lot of difference.

Group C: England, Denmark, Serbia, Slovenia
I think England is poised for a breakthrough.  They lost to Italy on penalty kicks in the final (at Wembley Stadium) three years ago, which, believe it or not, was their first major final since the 1966 World Cup.  They've actually never made one outside of England (and guess where Euro 2028 is).  I really like England in this tournament.  I also like Denmark to come out of the group, while whoever wins the Serbia-Slovenia game has a good chance at being one of the top four third-place teams.

Group D: France, Netherlands, Poland, Austria
It's not quite as brutal as Group B, but it's close.  France and the Netherlands are two of the tournament favorites, and they both went to penalty kicks with Argentina at the World Cup.  Their match against each other will almost certainly decide first place in the group.  The Poland-Austria match, meanwhile, will determine which of those teams makes it to the knockout round.

Group E: Belgium, Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine
The window is definitely closing for Belgium and its "Golden Generation."  We saw it at the World Cup, when they didn't even get out of the group (although, in fairness, they were in a group with Croatia and Morocco, who both made the semifinals).  That shouldn't be a problem here against one of the weaker groups.  The real question is who'll join them out of Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine.  I really think it could be any of the three.

Group F: Portugal, Turkey, Czech Republic, Georgia
Georgia is the only team making its debut at the Euro, and they're the lowest-ranked team in the field.  They'll definitely fit into the classic "just glad to be here" mold.  If Portugal doesn't win the group, it would be a shock.  They're the best of the four teams by a wide margin.  As for the other two teams, I don't even know what they want to be called anymore.  Turkey has apparently changed its name to Turkiye and the Czech Republic is evidently now known as Czechia.  They both need to just pick one!  It's confusing!

With the knockout round bracket depending on which groups' third-place teams advance, it's much harder to project where teams will end up.  And, as we've seen in the past, some teams may prefer finishing third in their group so that they can have an easier path or opponent in the knockout phase.  That's a calculated gamble, though.  Because third-place teams don't know where they're going and have to play a group winner.  Although, since the weaker groups don't finish group play until later, I don't see anybody playing for third knowing they'll qualify anyway.  Which is actually good and should make for a more competitive final round of group play.

Based strictly on the strength of the groups, I have the third-place teams from Groups A-D moving on to the knockout round.  Groups E & F simply aren't as good as the others.  So, with that in mind, here are my Round of 16 matchups: Spain vs Scotland, Germany vs Denmark, Portugal vs Serbia, Netherlands vs Slovakia, Belgium vs Italy, France vs Turkey, England vs Poland, Switzerland vs Croatia.

My semifinal matchups are Spain vs Netherlands and France vs England.  Then, in the final, I've got the Netherlands meeting England, with England winning the Euro for the first time in history.  I can't give you a specific reason why England is my pick.  I just have a feeling.  So that's who I'm going with.