At the Copa, Copa America

Last week, the Summer of Soccer started when Euro 2024 got underway in Germany.  Now it kicks into high gear with the start of Copa America, which is being played in the United States as a prelude to the 2026 World Cup.  There'll actually be a major tournament in the U.S. three years in a row, with the 2025 Club World Cup also coming up (as well as the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup).

This is the second time that Copa America is being played in the U.S.  Eight years ago, the centennial edition of the tournament included six CONCACAF teams along with all 10 from CONMEBOL, and it was one of the best Copa Americas ever.  This year's tournament should be just as good.  I've long thought that Copa America should be a combined tournament between the two federations (CONMEBOL & CONCACAF), and the inclusion of the six CONCACAF teams only helps prove my point.  It makes for a better tournament.  It's better competition for the CONCACAF teams, who are certainly capable of holding their own against their South American counterparts, and different competition for the CONMEBOL teams, who, let's face it, play each other a lot and could use some variety.  It's a win-win for everyone.

It's also an incredibly important tournament for the United States, Mexico and Canada.  As the World Cup co-hosts, they don't have to go through qualifying.  So, these are the biggest games they'll be playing until the World Cup.  And the level of competition is far superior to what they'll see playing only in friendlies and against the other CONCACAF nations in the Gold Cup.  (There may be CONCACAF Nations League, too, but that would be the same problem.)

I also noticed that the schedule was made very deliberately.  Argentina is the World Cup champions.  Lionel Messi, who plays for Argentina, is one of the biggest names on the planet.  Messi plays his club futbol with Inter Miami.  Guess where Argentina's last game and the tournament final are.  (Argentina also has a game in New York, which also isn't by accident.)

Group A: Argentina, Chile, Peru, Canada
Messi and Co. begin the tournament in Atlanta against Canada.  The Canadians could use a good showing.  They topped CONCACAF qualifying for the 2022 World Cup, then ended up going 0-3 in Qatar (albeit in a group that included two semifinalists).  So, opening against the World Cup champions certainly isn't ideal.  A competitive showing could be a good omen, though.  

Ultimately, I think that second quarterfinal spot behind Argentina will come down to the Chile-Peru winner.  Chile actually beat Argentina in the final at MetLife Stadium eight years ago for their second consecutive Copa America title, but has dropped off considerably since then.  In 2022 World Cup qualifying, they were seventh and Peru went to the intercontinental playoff against Australia.  Still, though, I'm not counting Chile out.  Those bottom three teams are pretty evenly matched, so it really could be any of them.

Group B: Mexico, Ecuador, Jamaica, Venezuela
When they did the draw, they completely screwed it up and tried to put Jamaica in Group C (which already had two CONCACAF teams) before finally figuring out where they should be.  Ending up in Group B was extremely beneficial for the Jamaicans, too, because I think they have an outside shot at advancing.  They obviously won't be favored to come out of the group, but being in the same group in Venezuela is huge.  Because that game is very winnable.

Mexico and Ecuador are a clear top two, though.  That game will be vital since the group winner has a very good chance at reaching the semifinals, while the runner-up has to face Argentina.  Mexico's games are in Houston, LA and Phoenix, so you know El Tri will have plenty of fans in attendance.  I think that could make the difference.  They'd be favored in this group anyway, but they'll definitely feed off of having a "home" crowd.

Group C: United States, Uruguay, Panama, Bolivia
Which U.S. team will show up?  The one that got its butts kicked by Colombia or the one that went toe-to-toe with Brazil in a 1-1 draw?  Either way, they're facing one of those two again in the quarterfinals, so a repeat of 2016's semifinal run will be difficult regardless.  Although, advancing out of the group shouldn't be an issue.  Bolivia is the weakest team in the tournament and, while Panama often gives the U.S. trouble (especially in Panama), don't expect it to happen here.

So, that final group game between the United States and Uruguay at Arrowhead Stadium on July 1 is the one to pay attention to.  Both teams should have already clinched quarterfinal spots (opposite Brazil and Colombia) by that point, so they'll be playing for first place in the group.  Regardless of who wins, though, the quarterfinal will be a tough matchup.

Group B: Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Paraguay
There's been a lot of buzz about Colombia heading into the tournament.  They were already one of the favorites before that 5-1 demolition of the United States, a victory that only emphasized that status.  Brazil also enters as one of the favorites.  Their performance against the United States didn't change that, but certainly did show the Brazilians could be vulnerable.  They'll need to be on their A game, both against Colombia and in the quarterfinals against the United States or Uruguay.

If Costa Rica had ended up in a different group, I might've liked their chances to advance to the quarters a little bit more.  If they were in Group A, for example, I could see them hanging with either Chile or Peru.  They aren't finishing ahead of both Brazil and Colombia, though. Neither is Paraguay.  Those two C vs. D quarterfinals on July 6 could easily be semifinals had the draw worked out better for the four teams involved.

Quarterfinals: Argentina vs. Ecuador, Mexico vs. Chile, United States vs. Colombia, Brazil vs. Uruguay
In 2016, there was a little bit of a side competition between the United States and Mexico to see which would be the higher-placing CONCACAF team.  That ended up being the U.S, which finished fourth while Mexico lost in the quarterfinals...to Chile.  This time, I think both of those things flip.  Mexico beats Chile and ends up as the top CONCACAF team by making the semifinals while the U.S. loses in the quarters.

Messi finally won his first senior major trophy when Argentina beat Brazil in the final of the 2021 Copa America at Maracana.  Argentina then, obviously, went on to win the World Cup a year later.  Now, the Copa America final is in the city where Messi plays his club home games.  The setting is almost a little too perfect.  Argentina defends its title and makes it three major trophies in a row by beating Brazil in the final again.