Canada's Cup?

This year, we have a chance to see something that hasn't happened in 31 years.  No Canadian team has won the Stanley Cup since 1993.  That's obviously a record-long drought, and in most of those years there hasn't even been a Canadian team in the Final!  But this year, we've got the Oilers!

It really did seem like it was only a matter of time until Edmonton made its way back to the Final.  They simply have too much talent on that roster.  The Oilers are proof that drafting well can work wonders.  They were so bad for so long that they had the No. 1 pick three years in a row and four times in six years.  Two of those No. 1 picks are still on the roster.  Their names are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Connor McDavid.  That's two-thirds of Edmonton's top line.  They also have Leon Draisaitl, who's also pretty good at hockey.

With three of the best players on the planet, you also can't help but get a feeling that this won't be the Oilers' last Stanley Cup Final appearance in the McDavid-Draisaitl Era.  Of course, they've got a ways to catch up to the Gretzky-Messier Oilers dynasty who won five Cups in seven years from 1984-90.  The two times they didn't win during that era were in 1986 and 1989, when the Final was Montreal vs. Calgary (both times), so Canada won the Cup seven years in a row...which makes the current 31-year drought that much crazier!

But can the Oilers end that drought?  Or will it extend to 32 years?  That's the real question.  They certainly have the offensive firepower.  But we saw what the Panthers did to the Rangers' offensive firepower.  That defensive style of play and aggressive forecheck completely wore them down, and they took Kreider, Zibanejad and Panarin completely out of the series.  The only reason it even went six was because of Igor Shesterkin.

Now, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin are no Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  But Stuart Skinner is no Igor Shesterkin, either.  So, it's a tradeoff.  I think Edmonton's offensive stars will be better equipped to handle the Panthers' relentless pressure.  But will they get enough from their goaltender?

Last season, the Panthers were happy to be there.  They don't even make the playoffs if the Penguins don't blow a game against Chicago in the last week of the season, then they come back from 3-1 down to upset the President's Trophy-winning Bruins in the first round and continued that ride all the way to the Final.  The Golden Knights were better than them, though, and it showed.

The 2023-24 Panthers, meanwhile, expected to be here and would've been disappointed if they weren't.  They're built to win the Stanley Cup and are the rightful favorites in this series.  If they do lift the Cup, it'll be the first in program history.  And they'll certainly have earned it, going through a gauntlet of Tampa Bay, Boston, the Rangers and Edmonton to do so.

In each of its three Eastern Conference series, Florida did the exact same thing.  The Panthers wore you down with their in-your-face defensive style, then pounced in the third period after they had exhausted their opponent.  It isn't always pretty, but it's pretty damn effective!  And there's no reason to think it won't work for another four games.

Sergei Bobrovsky will be a key player, too, I think.  Because of the way Florida plays, he doesn't have to do much.  As a result, I don't think he gets enough credit for the Panthers' success.  But, he's allowed two goals or fewer in 10 of Florida's last 11 games and in 13 of 17 games during the playoffs.  So, even if you do somehow manage to beat their pressure, Bob the Goalie isn't letting much of anything by him.

That, I think, is the biggest difference, and why the Panthers are favored.  They wear you down and beat you up, and it's a grind just to score a goal.  And if they get the lead, good luck!  So, for the Oilers to have any chance, they'll need to score first, play with the lead, and hold it.  If you're tied or trailing going into the third period against them, you're not coming back.

Their experience from last season can't be discounted, either.  The Panthers are the first team since the 2008-09 Penguins to make it back to the Stanley Cup Final the year after losing.  Pittsburgh won the Cup that season.  It was a very similar situation, too.  The loss the previous year paved the way for a Cup win.  After watching that Panthers team for six games in the Eastern Conference Final, I've got no reason to think they aren't primed to repeat that script.

And, while I've been giving so much credit to Florida's defense, they aren't exactly slackers on the offensive side, either.  Especially on the power play.  Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk are lethal, and I think it's an NHL rule that Carter Verhaeghe scores the game-winner in every Panthers playoff game that goes to overtime.  They can roll four lines and get scoring from any of them.  That's been another big key to their success.

One last key factor that will likely work in the Panthers' favor is the travel.  This Stanley Cup Final features the greatest distance between the two teams in history.  It's about 40 miles further from Edmonton to Miami than the previous record-holder, Vancouver-Boston in 2011.  The Oilers already have a lot of miles underneath them after playing series against LA and Dallas.  The Panthers, meanwhile, have been sitting in Miami waiting.  And they have the home ice advantage.

So, as much as I'd love to see the Oilers end Canada's Stanley Cup drought, I can't say that I think they will.  Edmonton has the offensive stars, including two of the top five players in the game.  Florida's got everything else.  The Panthers win the Cup.