Another Fortnight

Last year, Carlos Alcaraz became the first man outside the Big Four to win Wimbledon since Lleyton Hewitt in 2002.  That's before Alcaraz was even born!  Then for a while, it looked like he might be the only former champion in the 2024 field.  That, however, is no longer the case.  Novak Djokovic, who withdrew from the French Open before his quarterfinal match due to a knee injury, has recovered enough from surgery to enter.  Andy Murray, meanwhile, will give it another go for perhaps the final time at the All-England Club.

Now, whether Djokovic's decision to play was wise is an entirely different question.  And we probably won't find out until the tournament starts and he takes the court for the first time.  The whole point of withdrawing from the French Open and having the surgery when he did was to be ready for the Olympics, which are a month from now.  So, he either healed very quickly or came back earlier than he should've.  If it's the former, is an eighth Wimbledon title out of the question?  If it's the latter, is it smart to play on the knee a month earlier than planned?  I guess we'll find out.

Imagine if Djokovic had won the final last year, though.  Now imagine he and Murray both weren't playing.  There would be a grand total of zero former Wimbledon champions in the men's field!  I know that's a lot of if's, but it's crazy to think about.  It would mean this year's Wimbledon is truly the changing of the guard.

We've already started to see that changing of the guard in men's tennis this year.  Jannik Sinner beat Djokovic in the Australian Open semifinals and went on to win the title.  Now he's No. 1 in the world.  The French Open final, meanwhile, was Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev, who's still waiting for that first Slam title.  Wimbledon seems the least likely to be where he gets it.  He's made it to at least the semis in each of the other three, but hasn't even been to the second week at Wimbledon.

However, the same was true of Alcaraz last year and he not only won, he beat the four-time defending champion in a five-set final.  So, it wouldn't surprise me if Zverev does the exact same thing this year.  Especially if he actually plays quick matches in the early rounds, which is something he didn't do in Paris (and may have cost him in the final).

There will be plenty of other challengers for the men's title, though.  Sinner was a semifinalist last year.  So was Daniil Medvedev, who's been to the finals of both hardcourt Grand Slams three times each, including a win at the 2021 US Open.  And, don't forget, the only reason he didn't play at Wimbledon in 2022 was because of their controversial Russian ban.  That's also true of Andrey Rublev, who was a quarterfinalist last year.

So, really, for the first time in a long time, I think it's wide open.  I can see any of the top men winning.  And it would be foolish to count Djokovic out.  Despite everything I said earlier, I doubt he'd be playing if he didn't think the knee was 100 percent.  Especially since he said his goal was to be ready for the Olympics, not Wimbledon.  We'll probably find out how he looks early.  If it's Vintage Djokovic, there's no reason to think he won't be in the mix.

Djokovic isn't my pick, though.  Neither is Alcaraz.  Or Sinner.  Or Medvedev.  Nope!  I'm going with Zverev.  Once upon a time, they said Wimbledon was the Grand Slam Andre Agassi was least likely to win.  It's where he won his first Grand Slam title.  I can see the same thing happening here with Zverev.  He's the only top man without one.  That'll change here.

This year's Wimbledon men's final will be the start of a massive sports day, too.  The finals of both ongoing major soccer tournaments are also that day.  Immediately after the Wimbledon final is the final of Euro 2024 in Berlin, then the day is capped off with the Copa America final in Miami.  Will Djokovic, Mbappe and Messi, three of the biggest sports stars on the planet, all end up hoisting trophies that day?  Or will it be another man winning Wimbledon for the first time (or, in Alcaraz's case, the second)?

Meanwhile, on the women's side, there have been seven different Wimbledon champions in the last seven tournaments.  The three women who've made it to the final in the last two years are all in the top half of the draw (along with No. 1 Iga Swiatek), so only one can get back.  Which means the possibility of it becoming eight in eight is very real.

I've long had Aryna Sabalenka pegged as a future Wimbledon champion.  She's been to the semifinals each of the last two times she's played and has the perfect game for grass.  Sabalenka's been dealing with a mysterious shoulder injury, though.  How will it affect her?  Or is she back to 100 percent?  If she is, I can easily see her adding a Wimbledon trophy to her Australian Open crown from earlier this year.

One of the things working in Sabalenka's favor is that she's on the much easier bottom half of the draw, so she should be able to ease into the tournament.  It's really just her and Coco Gauff on the bottom half.  Gauff had her Grand Slam breakthrough at Wimbledon in 2019, when she beat Venus Williams in the first round and reached the round of 16 in her first-ever Grand Slam tournament.  Gauff is now a Grand Slam champion (having won the 2023 US Open) and made the semis at the first two Grand Slams this year.  It would be a surprise to see her not get at least that far at Wimbledon.

The top half of the women's draw, though, is absolutely loaded.  Whoever gets out of that gauntlet will certainly have earned it.  In addition to the last two champions (Marketa Vondrousova & Elena Rybakina), you've got Ons Jabeur, who's lost the last two Wimbledon finals, and No. 1 Iga Swiatek.  Swiatek's quarterfinal appearance last year was her best-ever Wimbledon result.  In order to get to the quarters this year, though, she'll have to deal with her nemesis, Jelena Ostapenko.

Ostapenko is 4-0 career against Swiatek and one of those wins came at last year's US Open (when Swiatek was the defending champion).  Ostapenko can handle herself on the grass, too.  She was a semifinalist here in 2022.  But she's also lost in the first round at Wimbledon three times, so Swiatek's best hope could be for Ostapenko to suffer an early-round upset.

With Swiatek out of the equation, it's really a toss-up between Vondrousova, Rybakina and Jabeur.  And, for some reason, I like Vondrousova to repeat.  I can't say why.  I just like her chances (even though she had won a grand total of one Wimbledon match in her career prior to last year).  I also like Jabeur, but she'll have the much more difficult road with Pegula in the round of 16 and Rybakina in the quarterfinals.

As for her final opponent, I'm actually going with Sabalenka.  Her withdrawal from her tune-up event seems to be more precautionary than anything else.  It also seems like it's a pain tolerance thing for her.  We'll see how much pain she can endure in that semifinal against Gauff.  Call me crazy, though, but I think Sabalenka doesn't even need to be at 100 percent in order to make a run here.